See the original Episode 5 post if you don't want to be spoiled by the MTV blog.
The contestants are now really close with only 142 combinations remaining after Episode 4.
Blog Reveal
None yet this week.Truth Booth #1
Dre and Ashleigh had been together in two matchup ceremonies - Episode 2 and less successful Episode 3 (the most successful to-date), so they were a good choice here for one of two truth booths. But they weren't a match - which reduced the number of possible combinations to 56. However, no other combinations were eliminated. This left the following probabilities, with Ashleigh and Dre each now lacking the strong favorite that everyone else has (red = eliminated, yellow = twice as likely as randomly guessing, green = most likely pairing):| Adam | Chris S | Chris T | Dillan | Dre | Ethan | Joey | John | Ryan | Wesley | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amber | X | X | X | X | X | Match | X | X | X | X |
| Ashleigh | 8.9% | 26.8% | 21.4% | 1.8% | X | X | 5.4% | 10.7% | 16.1% | 8.9% |
| Brittany | X | 3.6% | 1.8% | 7.1% | 7.1% | X | 55.4% | 5.4% | 16.1% | 3.6% |
| Coleysia | 1.8% | X | 1.8% | 82.1% | X | X | X | 1.8% | 1.8% | 10.7% |
| Jacy | 3.6% | 1.8% | X | 1.8% | 23.2% | X | 7.1% | 57.1% | 5.4% | X |
| Jessica | 8.9% | 5.4% | 16.1% | X | 12.5% | X | 8.9% | 1.8% | 19.6% | 26.8% |
| Kayla | 7.1% | 5.4% | 10.7% | 1.8% | 8.9% | X | 8.9% | 5.4% | 14.3% | 37.5% |
| Paige | 5.4% | 1.8% | 48.2% | 3.6% | 7.1% | X | 14.3% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 7.1% |
| Shanley | 62.5% | 3.6% | X | X | 8.9% | X | X | 12.5% | 10.7% | 1.8% |
| Simone | 1.8% | 51.8% | X | 1.8% | 32.1% | X | X | X | 8.9% | 3.6% |
Truth Booth #2
Coleysia and Dillan were the second couple picked for the truth booth. Undoubtedly, the producers chose them to go second for dramatic effect. They had been together on the most number of episodes (3) and the probabilities to this point had suggested that they were the most likely match. And the team finally breaks through with a perfect match! This eliminates only 10 possibilities, but it's good to get someone as 100% certain. Out of the remaining 46 possible combinations, the following are eliminated, including all of the other pairings from episode 3:- Jessica - John (paired in episode 3)
- Kayla - Ryan (paired in episodes 2 and 3)
- Paige - Chris S (paired in episode 3)
| Adam | Chris S | Chris T | Dillan | Dre | Ethan | Joey | John | Ryan | Wesley | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amber | X | X | X | X | X | Match | X | X | X | X |
| Ashleigh | 10.9% | 19.6% | 19.6% | X | X | X | 6.5% | 13.0% | 19.6% | 10.9% |
| Brittany | X | 4.3% | 2.2% | X | 8.7% | X | 58.7% | 4.3% | 17.4% | 4.3% |
| Coleysia | X | X | X | Match | X | X | X | X | X | X |
| Jacy | 2.2% | 2.2% | X | X | 19.6% | X | 4.3% | 65.2% | 6.5% | X |
| Jessica | 8.7% | 6.5% | 8.7% | X | 15.2% | X | 10.9% | X | 23.9% | 26.1% |
| Kayla | 8.7% | 6.5% | 13.0% | X | 10.9% | X | 10.9% | 6.5% | X | 43.5% |
| Paige | 4.3% | X | 56.5% | X | 8.7% | X | 8.7% | 4.3% | 8.7% | 8.7% |
| Shanley | 63.0% | 4.3% | X | X | 10.9% | X | X | 6.5% | 13.0% | 2.2% |
| Simone | 2.2% | 56.5% | X | X | 26.1% | X | X | X | 10.9% | 4.3% |
Matchup Ceremony
The men go first this time, and many of the guys choose the girls who picked them in episode 2:- Ethan - Amber (confirmed match, repeat from episodes 2 and 3)
- Joey - Jessica
- Wes - Kayla (repeat from episode 1)
- John - Jacy (repeat from episode 2)
- Chris S - Simone (repeat from episode 2)
- Adam - Shanley (repeat from episode 2)
- Chris T - Paige (repeat from episode 2)
- Dre - Brittany
- Ryan - Ashleigh
- Brittany - Chris S
- Brittany - Chris T
- Brittany - Dre
- Brittany - John
- Jacy - Adam
- Jacy - Joey (paired in episode 4)
- Jessica - Joey
- Kayla - Adam
- Kayla - John
- Shanley - Wes
- Simone - Adam
| Adam | Chris S | Chris T | Dillan | Dre | Ethan | Joey | John | Ryan | Wesley | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amber | X | X | X | X | X | Match | X | X | X | X |
| Ashleigh | 15.8% | 10.5% | 36.8% | X | X | X | 5.3% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 10.5% |
| Brittany | X | X | X | X | X | X | 68.4% | X | 21.1% | 10.5% |
| Coleysia | X | X | X | Match | X | X | X | X | X | X |
| Jacy | X | 5.3% | X | X | 5.3% | X | X | 73.7% | 15.8% | X |
| Jessica | 10.5% | 15.8% | 15.8% | X | 26.3% | X | X | X | 26.3% | 5.3% |
| Kayla | X | 5.3% | 10.5% | X | 10.5% | X | 15.8% | X | X | 57.9% |
| Paige | 10.5% | X | 36.8% | X | 15.8% | X | 10.5% | 10.5% | 5.3% | 10.5% |
| Shanley | 63.2% | 5.3% | X | X | 10.5% | X | X | 5.3% | 15.8% | X |
| Simone | X | 57.9% | X | X | 31.6% | X | X | X | 5.3% | 5.3% |
The remaining 19 combinations:
- Ashleigh - Chris T, Brittany - Joey, Jacy - John, Jessica - Dre, Kayla - Wesley, Paige - Adam, Shanley - Ryan, Simone - Chris S
- Ashleigh - Chris T, Brittany - Joey, Jacy - Ryan, Jessica - Dre, Kayla - Wesley, Paige - John, Shanley - Adam, Simone - Chris S
- Ashleigh - Chris T, Brittany - Joey, Jacy - John, Jessica - Ryan, Kayla - Wesley, Paige - Adam, Shanley - Dre, Simone - Chris S
- Ashleigh - Chris T, Brittany - Joey, Jacy - John, Jessica - Adam, Kayla - Wesley, Paige - Dre, Shanley - Ryan, Simone - Chris S
- Ashleigh - Adam, Brittany - Joey, Jacy - John, Jessica - Chris S, Kayla - Wesley, Paige - Chris T, Shanley - Ryan, Simone - Dre
- Ashleigh - Chris T, Brittany - Joey, Jacy - John, Jessica - Chris S, Kayla - Wesley, Paige - Dre, Shanley - Adam, Simone - Ryan
- Ashleigh - John, Brittany - Joey, Jacy - Ryan, Jessica - Chris S, Kayla - Wesley, Paige - Chris T, Shanley - Adam, Simone - Dre
- Ashleigh - Adam, Brittany - Joey, Jacy - John, Jessica - Ryan, Kayla - Wesley, Paige - Chris T, Shanley - Chris S, Simone - Dre
- Ashleigh - John, Brittany - Joey, Jacy - Chris S, Jessica - Ryan, Kayla - Wesley, Paige - Chris T, Shanley - Adam, Simone - Dre
- Ashleigh - Chris T, Brittany - Joey, Jacy - John, Jessica - Adam, Kayla - Wesley, Paige - Ryan, Shanley - Dre, Simone - Chris S
- Ashleigh - Chris T, Brittany - Wesley, Jacy - John, Jessica - Ryan, Kayla - Dre, Paige - Joey, Shanley - Adam, Simone - Chris S
- Ashleigh - Adam, Brittany - Joey, Jacy - Ryan, Jessica - Dre, Kayla - Wesley, Paige - Chris T, Shanley - John, Simone - Chris S
- Ashleigh - Chris S, Brittany - Wesley, Jacy - John, Jessica - Ryan, Kayla - Joey, Paige - Chris T, Shanley - Adam, Simone - Dre
- Ashleigh - Wesley, Brittany - Ryan, Jacy - John, Jessica - Chris T, Kayla - Joey, Paige - Dre, Shanley - Adam, Simone - Chris S
- Ashleigh - Wesley, Brittany - Ryan, Jacy - John, Jessica - Dre, Kayla - Chris T, Paige - Joey, Shanley - Adam, Simone - Chris S
- Ashleigh - Ryan, Brittany - Joey, Jacy - John, Jessica - Chris T, Kayla - Chris S, Paige - Wesley, Shanley - Adam, Simone - Dre
- Ashleigh - Chris S, Brittany - Ryan, Jacy - John, Jessica - Dre, Kayla - Joey, Paige - Chris T, Shanley - Adam, Simone - Wesley
- Ashleigh - Joey, Brittany - Ryan, Jacy - John, Jessica - Chris T, Kayla - Dre, Paige - Wesley, Shanley - Adam, Simone - Chris S
- Ashleigh - Ryan, Brittany - Joey, Jacy - Dre, Jessica - Wesley, Kayla - Chris T, Paige - John, Shanley - Adam, Simone - Chris S
Hey, I was just wondering how you're keeping track of the remaining possibilities? I'm using integer linear programming, but I can only solve for the solutions, not the number of solutions.
ReplyDeleteI wrote a computer program that generates all 3M+ permutations, then removes invalid permutations as new truth booth or matchup ceremony results are added.
ReplyDeleteI agree with your 19 possible solutions (I too wrote a program to identify each of the 3.6M+ possible solutons, then eliminated invalid ones as results came out). But where are you getting the probabilities for each one? Seems to me that each of the 19 are equally as likely. What information do you have that makes one more likely than any of the others? Thanks.
ReplyDeletePerhaps frequency with which the pair appears in the remaining solutions?
DeleteSPOILER FOLLOWS:
Are you considering including the gif clue that pretty clearly suggests brittany and joey as a match and/or the episode description spoiler for episode 7 which suggests Paige w/Chris T?
You're right, they are equally likely. My apologies, got the results tangled with a formula I was working on for a strategy post. I'll take the probabilities out.
DeleteKay.(SPOILER)..No, the 19 solutions identified do not include the information of the Joey-Brittany match or Paige-Chris T. You can take the 19 above yourself and reduce them to 13 with Joey-Brittany as a match. You can then reduce it to just 5 possibilities if you believe Paige-Chris T. is a match.
ReplyDeleteI don't know why MTV gives away so much in blogs and episode descriptions but one should be cautious before reading too much into such spoilers.
ReplyDeleteKeep in mind the first episode began with teaser scenes from Day 26, Day 31, and Day 41.
The "Day 41 clip" aired in Episode 5, while I'm pretty certain the other 2 clips have yet to air.
And don't forget we just had the Real World episode description tell us the Exes were moving in the first episode, even though that happened at the end of episode 4.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDelete1. Coleysia- Dillan
ReplyDelete2. Paige - Chris T.
3. Amber - Ethan
4. Jacy -Jon
5. Kayla- Wes
6. Britt-Joey
7. Shanley -Adam
8. Simone -Chris S
9. Ashleigh-Ryan
10. Jessica-Dre
Not sure about the last three but I think its pretty good!!!! We will see!!! What do you guys think???