Season 1, Episode 4 Probabilities - with blog assistance

MTV is revealing perfect matches for Are You The One? on their blog. This post will keep track of known combinations given the information on the blog.

See the original Episode 4 post if you don't want to be spoiled by the MTV blog.

Just 583 possible combinations remain thanks to the happenings in Episode 3.

Blog Reveal

None this week.

Truth Booth

Dillan and Jessica went into the truth booth this week, after being paired in Episode 2's matchup ceremony (the most successful to-date). They were each other's most likely perfect match, but came up empty here. Their mismatch reduced the number of possible combinations down to 426 (red = eliminated, yellow = twice as likely as randomly guessing, green = most likely pairing):

	Adam	Chris S	Chris T	Dillan	Dre	Ethan	Joey	John	Ryan	Wesley
Amber	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X
Ashleigh	5.4%	27.5%	5.2%	9.2%	20.0%	X	6.3%	9.6%	9.6%	7.3%
Brittany	9.6%	5.4%	4.7%	10.3%	7.3%	X	39.9%	7.3%	8.7%	6.8%
Coleysia	6.6%	4.9%	3.5%	30.3%	5.2%	X	6.1%	6.6%	6.1%	30.8%
Jacy	4.5%	2.6%	1.2%	7.0%	27.7%	X	2.6%	49.1%	5.4%	X
Jessica	5.4%	3.8%	48.4%	X	9.4%	X	6.3%	6.3%	12.4%	8.0%
Kayla	6.1%	2.8%	4.9%	7.3%	6.3%	X	6.1%	6.6%	30.8%	29.1%
Paige	5.2%	1.4%	30.5%	8.9%	6.3%	X	27.5%	8.0%	6.6%	5.6%
Shanley	51.6%	4.2%	X	13.1%	8.2%	X	X	6.6%	10.8%	5.4%
Simone	5.6%	47.4%	1.6%	13.8%	9.6%	X	5.2%	X	9.6%	7.0%

Matchup Ceremony

The women get to go first - but none of them repeat their selections from episode 2. Blame Brittany for this one - by selecting Ryan, she created a domino effect that caused Amber and Ethan to be broken up. Shanley also chose John rather than go with Joey for a second time. Has Joey even said anything in the last two episodes?

• Coleysia - Dillan (repeat from episodes 1 and 3)
• Paige - Chris S
• Jessica - Wes
• Simone - Dre
• Brittany - Ryan
• Kayla - Ethan (confirmed no match)
• Amber - Adam (confirmed no match)
• Ashleigh - Chris T
• Shanley - John
• Jacey - Joey

For the third time, only 2 of 10 pairings were correct. Because so few couples repeated from previous episodes, the maximum possible correct was actually only 4 of 10. However, there is an upside to not repeating couples - this matchup ceremony actually eliminated several pairings, the first to do so. Each of these eliminations is due to the previous events occurring in tandem, not just a single event. Because of these dependencies, it's unlikely that the contestants will discover these eliminated pairings:

• Brittany - Adam (paired in episodes 1 and 3)
• Coleysia - Chris S
• Coleysia - Dre
• Coleysia - Joey
• Jacy - Chris T
• Jacy - Wesley (paired in episode 3)
• Shanley - Dillan
• Shanley - Joey (paired in episode 3, Good decision!)
• Simone - Chris T
• Simone - Joey (paired in episode 3)

Particularly amazing is that there are now only 56 possible combinations remaining. That's countable!

	Adam	Chris S	Chris T	Dillan	Dre	Ethan	Joey	John	Ryan	Wesley
Amber	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X
Ashleigh	8.5%	25.4%	20.3%	1.7%	5.1%	X	5.1%	10.2%	15.3%	8.5%
Brittany	X	3.4%	1.7%	6.8%	6.8%	X	52.5%	5.1%	20.3%	3.4%
Coleysia	1.7%	X	1.7%	78.0%	X	X	X	3.4%	1.7%	13.6%
Jacy	5.1%	1.7%	X	3.4%	22.0%	X	8.5%	54.2%	5.1%	X
Jessica	8.5%	5.1%	20.3%	X	11.9%	X	8.5%	1.7%	18.6%	25.4%
Kayla	8.5%	5.1%	10.2%	3.4%	8.5%	X	8.5%	5.1%	13.6%	37.3%
Paige	5.1%	1.7%	45.8%	5.1%	6.8%	X	16.9%	5.1%	6.8%	6.8%
Shanley	61.0%	3.4%	X	X	8.5%	X	X	15.3%	10.2%	1.7%
Simone	1.7%	54.2%	X	1.7%	30.5%	X	X	X	8.5%	3.4%

Dillan and Coleysia seem to be obvious candidates to go to the truth booth next episode. That pairing has been held constant through three episodes thus far, each of which only had 2/10 correct. Especially valuable would be that a "no match" on Dillan and Coleysia would leave only 13 possible combinations.

Here are the remaining 59 possibilities (Amber - Ethan for each):

1. Ashleigh - Chris S, Brittany - Joey, Coleysia - Dillan, Jacy - John, Jessica - Ryan, Kayla - Chris T, Paige - Wesley, Shanley - Adam, Simone - Dre
2. Ashleigh - Chris T, Brittany - Joey, Coleysia - Dillan, Jacy - John, Jessica - Ryan, Kayla - Wesley, Paige - Adam, Shanley - Dre, Simone - Chris S
3. Ashleigh - Ryan, Brittany - Dre, Coleysia - Dillan, Jacy - John, Jessica - Wesley, Kayla - Chris T, Paige - Joey, Shanley - Adam, Simone - Chris S
4. Ashleigh - Adam, Brittany - Joey, Coleysia - Dillan, Jacy - John, Jessica - Ryan, Kayla - Wesley, Paige - Chris T, Shanley - Chris S, Simone - Dre
5. Ashleigh - Ryan, Brittany - Joey, Coleysia - Dillan, Jacy - Dre, Jessica - Wesley, Kayla - Chris T, Paige - John, Shanley - Adam, Simone - Chris S
6. Ashleigh - Ryan, Brittany - Chris S, Coleysia - Dillan, Jacy - John, Jessica - Joey, Kayla - Wesley, Paige - Chris T, Shanley - Adam, Simone - Dre
7. Ashleigh - Chris T, Brittany - Joey, Coleysia - Dillan, Jacy - John, Jessica - Dre, Kayla - Wesley, Paige - Adam, Shanley - Ryan, Simone - Chris S
8. Ashleigh - Chris T, Brittany - Joey, Coleysia - Dillan, Jacy - John, Jessica - Adam, Kayla - Wesley, Paige - Dre, Shanley - Ryan, Simone - Chris S
9. Ashleigh - John, Brittany - Joey, Coleysia - Dillan, Jacy - Dre, Jessica - Wesley, Kayla - Chris T, Paige - Ryan, Shanley - Adam, Simone - Chris S
10. Ashleigh - Ryan, Brittany - Joey, Coleysia - Dillan, Jacy - Adam, Jessica - Dre, Kayla - Wesley, Paige - Chris T, Shanley - John, Simone - Chris S
11. Ashleigh - Chris S, Brittany - Joey, Coleysia - Dillan, Jacy - John, Jessica - Wesley, Kayla - Chris T, Paige - Dre, Shanley - Adam, Simone - Ryan
12. Ashleigh - Ryan, Brittany - Joey, Coleysia - Dillan, Jacy - John, Jessica - Adam, Kayla - Wesley, Paige - Chris T, Shanley - Chris S, Simone - Dre
13. Ashleigh - Adam, Brittany - Joey, Coleysia - Dillan, Jacy - John, Jessica - Chris S, Kayla - Wesley, Paige - Chris T, Shanley - Ryan, Simone - Dre
14. Ashleigh - John, Brittany - Joey, Coleysia - Dillan, Jacy - Dre, Jessica - Wesley, Kayla - Adam, Paige - Chris T, Shanley - Ryan, Simone - Chris S
15. Ashleigh - Wesley, Brittany - Ryan, Coleysia - Dillan, Jacy - John, Jessica - Dre, Kayla - Chris T, Paige - Joey, Shanley - Adam, Simone - Chris S
16. Ashleigh - Chris S, Brittany - Wesley, Coleysia - Dillan, Jacy - John, Jessica - Ryan, Kayla - Joey, Paige - Chris T, Shanley - Adam, Simone - Dre
17. Ashleigh - Adam, Brittany - Ryan, Coleysia - Dillan, Jacy - John, Jessica - Joey, Kayla - Wesley, Paige - Chris T, Shanley - Dre, Simone - Chris S
18. Ashleigh - John, Brittany - Dre, Coleysia - Dillan, Jacy - Joey, Jessica - Ryan, Kayla - Wesley, Paige - Chris T, Shanley - Adam, Simone - Chris S
19. Ashleigh - Wesley, Brittany - Joey, Coleysia - Dillan, Jacy - Dre, Jessica - Ryan, Kayla - Adam, Paige - Chris T, Shanley - John, Simone - Chris S
20. Ashleigh - Chris T, Brittany - Joey, Coleysia - Dillan, Jacy - John, Jessica - Adam, Kayla - Wesley, Paige - Ryan, Shanley - Dre, Simone - Chris S
21. Ashleigh - Ryan, Brittany - Joey, Coleysia - Dillan, Jacy - John, Jessica - Chris T, Kayla - Chris S, Paige - Wesley, Shanley - Adam, Simone - Dre
22. Ashleigh - Ryan, Brittany - John, Coleysia - Dillan, Jacy - Dre, Jessica - Wesley, Kayla - Joey, Paige - Chris T, Shanley - Adam, Simone - Chris S
23. Ashleigh - Joey, Brittany - Chris S, Coleysia - Dillan, Jacy - John, Jessica - Ryan, Kayla - Wesley, Paige - Chris T, Shanley - Adam, Simone - Dre
24. Ashleigh - John, Brittany - Joey, Coleysia - Dillan, Jacy - Chris S, Jessica - Ryan, Kayla - Wesley, Paige - Chris T, Shanley - Adam, Simone - Dre
25. Ashleigh - Chris T, Brittany - Dre, Coleysia - Dillan, Jacy - John, Jessica - Joey, Kayla - Wesley, Paige - Ryan, Shanley - Adam, Simone - Chris S
26. Ashleigh - Chris S, Brittany - Joey, Coleysia - Dillan, Jacy - John, Jessica - Wesley, Kayla - Adam, Paige - Chris T, Shanley - Dre, Simone - Ryan
27. Ashleigh - Chris T, Brittany - Joey, Coleysia - Dillan, Jacy - Dre, Jessica - Ryan, Kayla - John, Paige - Wesley, Shanley - Adam, Simone - Chris S
28. Ashleigh - Chris S, Brittany - Dre, Coleysia - Dillan, Jacy - John, Jessica - Wesley, Kayla - Joey, Paige - Chris T, Shanley - Adam, Simone - Ryan
29. Ashleigh - Ryan, Brittany - John, Coleysia - Dillan, Jacy - Joey, Jessica - Dre, Kayla - Wesley, Paige - Chris T, Shanley - Adam, Simone - Chris S
30. Ashleigh - John, Brittany - Joey, Coleysia - Dillan, Jacy - Ryan, Jessica - Chris S, Kayla - Wesley, Paige - Chris T, Shanley - Adam, Simone - Dre
31. Ashleigh - Chris T, Brittany - Joey, Coleysia - Dillan, Jacy - Ryan, Jessica - Dre, Kayla - Wesley, Paige - John, Shanley - Adam, Simone - Chris S
32. Ashleigh - Chris T, Brittany - Joey, Coleysia - Dillan, Jacy - John, Jessica - Chris S, Kayla - Wesley, Paige - Dre, Shanley - Adam, Simone - Ryan
33. Ashleigh - Adam, Brittany - Joey, Coleysia - Dillan, Jacy - Ryan, Jessica - Dre, Kayla - Wesley, Paige - Chris T, Shanley - John, Simone - Chris S
34. Ashleigh - Joey, Brittany - Ryan, Coleysia - Dillan, Jacy - John, Jessica - Adam, Kayla - Wesley, Paige - Chris T, Shanley - Dre, Simone - Chris S
35. Ashleigh - Wesley, Brittany - Ryan, Coleysia - Dillan, Jacy - John, Jessica - Chris T, Kayla - Joey, Paige - Dre, Shanley - Adam, Simone - Chris S
36. Ashleigh - John, Brittany - Joey, Coleysia - Dillan, Jacy - Dre, Jessica - Wesley, Kayla - Chris S, Paige - Chris T, Shanley - Adam, Simone - Ryan
37. Ashleigh - Chris T, Brittany - Wesley, Coleysia - Dillan, Jacy - John, Jessica - Ryan, Kayla - Dre, Paige - Joey, Shanley - Adam, Simone - Chris S
38. Ashleigh - Adam, Brittany - Joey, Coleysia - Dillan, Jacy - Dre, Jessica - Wesley, Kayla - John, Paige - Chris T, Shanley - Ryan, Simone - Chris S
39. Ashleigh - Wesley, Brittany - Joey, Coleysia - Dillan, Jacy - John, Jessica - Chris T, Kayla - Chris S, Paige - Ryan, Shanley - Adam, Simone - Dre
40. Ashleigh - Chris S, Brittany - Joey, Coleysia - Dillan, Jacy - John, Jessica - Ryan, Kayla - Adam, Paige - Chris T, Shanley - Wesley, Simone - Dre
41. Ashleigh - Chris S, Brittany - Ryan, Coleysia - Dillan, Jacy - John, Jessica - Dre, Kayla - Joey, Paige - Chris T, Shanley - Adam, Simone - Wesley
42. Ashleigh - Wesley, Brittany - Ryan, Coleysia - Dillan, Jacy - Dre, Jessica - Joey, Kayla - John, Paige - Chris T, Shanley - Adam, Simone - Chris S
43. Ashleigh - Joey, Brittany - Ryan, Coleysia - Dillan, Jacy - John, Jessica - Chris T, Kayla - Dre, Paige - Wesley, Shanley - Adam, Simone - Chris S
44. Ashleigh - Chris S, Brittany - Ryan, Coleysia - Dillan, Jacy - John, Jessica - Joey, Kayla - Dre, Paige - Chris T, Shanley - Adam, Simone - Wesley
45. Ashleigh - Ryan, Brittany - Chris T, Coleysia - Dillan, Jacy - John, Jessica - Wesley, Kayla - Dre, Paige - Joey, Shanley - Adam, Simone - Chris S
46. Ashleigh - Chris S, Brittany - Joey, Coleysia - Dillan, Jacy - John, Jessica - Wesley, Kayla - Dre, Paige - Chris T, Shanley - Ryan, Simone - Adam
47. Ashleigh - Chris T, Brittany - Dillan, Coleysia - John, Jacy - Dre, Jessica - Wesley, Kayla - Ryan, Paige - Joey, Shanley - Adam, Simone - Chris S
48. Ashleigh - Chris S, Brittany - Dillan, Coleysia - Chris T, Jacy - John, Jessica - Wesley, Kayla - Ryan, Paige - Joey, Shanley - Adam, Simone - Dre
49. Ashleigh - Chris T, Brittany - Dillan, Coleysia - Wesley, Jacy - Dre, Jessica - Adam, Kayla - Ryan, Paige - Joey, Shanley - John, Simone - Chris S
50. Ashleigh - Chris S, Brittany - Joey, Coleysia - Wesley, Jacy - Adam, Jessica - Chris T, Kayla - Ryan, Paige - Dillan, Shanley - John, Simone - Dre
51. Ashleigh - Chris S, Brittany - Dillan, Coleysia - Wesley, Jacy - Joey, Jessica - Chris T, Kayla - Ryan, Paige - John, Shanley - Adam, Simone - Dre
52. Ashleigh - Chris S, Brittany - Joey, Coleysia - Wesley, Jacy - Dillan, Jessica - Chris T, Kayla - Ryan, Paige - Adam, Shanley - John, Simone - Dre
53. Ashleigh - Chris T, Brittany - Ryan, Coleysia - Wesley, Jacy - Dre, Jessica - John, Kayla - Dillan, Paige - Joey, Shanley - Adam, Simone - Chris S
54. Ashleigh - Chris S, Brittany - John, Coleysia - Wesley, Jacy - Joey, Jessica - Chris T, Kayla - Ryan, Paige - Dillan, Shanley - Adam, Simone - Dre
55. Ashleigh - Dre, Brittany - Ryan, Coleysia - John, Jacy - Joey, Jessica - Chris T, Kayla - Wesley, Paige - Dillan, Shanley - Adam, Simone - Chris S
56. Ashleigh - Chris S, Brittany - Joey, Coleysia - Adam, Jacy - Dre, Jessica - Wesley, Kayla - Ryan, Paige - Chris T, Shanley - John, Simone - Dillan
57. Ashleigh - Dillan, Brittany - Joey, Coleysia - Ryan, Jacy - John, Jessica - Chris T, Kayla - Wesley, Paige - Chris S, Shanley - Adam, Simone - Dre
58. Ashleigh - Dre, Brittany - Ryan, Coleysia - Wesley, Jacy - Dillan, Jessica - Chris T, Kayla - Adam, Paige - Joey, Shanley - John, Simone - Chris S
59. Ashleigh - Dre, Brittany - Ryan, Coleysia - Wesley, Jacy - Adam, Jessica - Chris T, Kayla - Dillan, Paige - Joey, Shanley - John, Simone - Chris S