Showing posts with label Season 3 Episode 7. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Season 3 Episode 7. Show all posts

Wednesday, November 4, 2015

Season 3, Episode 7 Probabilities - Live Blog

10:13: Alec-Melanie (6.5%) and Hunter-Rashida (11.6%) win the challenge!

10:16: Kayla-Mike (12.7%) flirting. Amanda jealous.

10:17: Amanda going crazy. Nelson having none of it.

10:23: Lots of girls getting spun around. Looks like fun.

10:24: Not sure the spin around really works. It all depends on which direction he goes.

Truth Booth

Alec-Melanie: a perfect match would bring it down to 18 combinations left.

No match! 257 combinations remain.

AlecAustinChuckConnorDevinHunterMikeNelsonTylerZak
Amanda12.1%17.5%17.5%X10.5%10.1%X9.7%9.7%12.8%
Britni2.7%12.8%XX15.6%49.4%X10.9%8.6%X
ChelseyXXXMatchXXXXXX
Cheyenne5.1%11.3%19.5%X16.3%8.2%10.1%X12.8%16.7%
Hannah9.7%12.5%XX8.6%13.2%12.8%10.1%11.3%21.8%
Kayla7.8%11.7%17.5%X13.6%7.0%12.8%8.6%8.6%12.5%
Kiki19.8%XXXXX32.7%21.8%25.7%X
MelanieX13.6%23.3%XXX10.9%20.2%16.0%16.0%
Rashida4.7%9.7%12.1%X27.2%12.1%11.7%10.9%X11.7%
Stacey38.1%10.9%10.1%X8.2%X8.9%7.8%7.4%8.6%


Alec-Stacey are definitely still in play.

10:34: "Chuck is definitely the fantasy in my head..." says Cheyenne, after revealing that she worked at Chuck E. Cheese a lot.

10:35: The speed dating seems to be working pretty well. Except for Crazy Kiki coming back. The frustrating part is that they keep going with new, low-probability couples instead of testing some of the results they've seen in the past.

10:38: Devin definitely playing it.

I think the safest strategy on the island would end up being to always choose couples from the most successful matchup ceremony for the truth booth.

10:44: Chelsey and Connor are definitely enjoying themselves. They probably are the only ones...

10:46: Rashida starting it off by picking Alec. From a math standpoint, this is one of the worst possible choices - picking the second-lowest combination on the board and removing the second-highest combination off the board.

Matchup Ceremony
  • Rashida - Alec
  • Kiki - Nelson (repeat from episode 6)
  • Amanda - Hunter
  • Britni - Devin
  • Melanie - Chuck
  • Hannah - Zak (repeat from episode 3)
  • Stacey - Mike
  • Kayla - Austin
  • Cheyenne - Tyler (repeat from episode 3)

DANGEROUSLY high odds of a blackout here - 74 of 257 (28.7%) of the possibilities are a blackout! The highest number of matches they can have here is 6.

3 perfect matches leaves 65 combinations.

AlecAustinChuckConnorDevinHunterMikeNelsonTylerZak
Amanda13.8%20.0%13.8%X16.9%12.3%X12.3%3.1%7.7%
Britni1.5%10.8%XX23.1%40.0%X15.4%9.2%X
ChelseyXXXMatchXXXXXX
Cheyenne4.6%13.8%13.8%X13.8%9.2%10.8%X15.4%18.5%
Hannah7.7%10.8%XX3.1%15.4%15.4%4.6%6.2%36.9%
Kayla1.5%23.1%18.5%X10.8%9.2%7.7%7.7%7.7%13.8%
Kiki18.5%XXXXX23.1%30.8%27.7%X
MelanieX9.2%36.9%XXX10.8%9.2%23.1%10.8%
Rashida6.2%7.7%7.7%X24.6%13.8%16.9%12.3%X10.8%
Stacey46.2%4.6%9.2%X7.7%X15.4%7.7%7.7%1.5%


The remaining 65 possibilities listed after the jump...