Wednesday, March 8, 2023

Season 9, Episode 9 Probabilities

Truth Booth #8

Taylor goes into the Truth Booth with Clay (50%) instead of Jordanne and Eduardo (no match). It's a perfect match! Additionally, all 3 remaining possibilities have Danielle and Hamudi as a perfect match.
  1. CC - Leo, Courtney - Eduardo, Dew - Mikey, Jordanne - Nathan, Roz - Will
  2. CC - Eduardo, Courtney - Mikey, Dew - Leo, Jordanne - Nathan, Roz - Will
  3. CC - Nathan, Courtney - Eduardo, Dew - Will, Jordanne - Mikey, Roz - Leo

AqelBrendanClayEduardoHamudiLeoMikeyNathanOllieSamuelWill
AnissaMatchXXXXXXXXXX
BrookeXXXXXXXXMatchXX
CCXXX33.3%X33.3%X33.3%XXX
CourtneyXXX66.7%XX33.3%XXXX
DanielleXXXXMatchXXXXXX
DewXXXXX33.3%33.3%XXX33.3%
JordanneXXXXXX33.3%66.7%XXX
Julia RuthXMatchXXXXXXXXX
MijntjeXXXXXXXXXMatchX
RozXXXXX33.3%XXXX66.7%
TaylorXXMatchXXXXXXXX


Matchup Ceremony #8
  • Jordanne - Eduardo (confirmed no match, repeat from ceremonies 3, 4, and 5)
  • Courtney - Hamudi (confirmed no match, repeat from ceremony 7)
  • Danielle - Nathan (confirmed no match)
  • Dew - Mikey
  • Roz - Leo (repeat from ceremony 7)
  • CC - Will (confirmed no match)
  • Anissa - Aqel (confirmed perfect match, repeat from ceremonies 2, 3, 4, 5, and 7)
Blackout probability: 0% (0 of 3)
Instant win possible: No
Maximum number of lights: 6
Most likely number of lights: 6

5 beams means it's combination #2 above, while 6 beams narrow it down to either #1 or #3.
AqelBrendanClayEduardoHamudiLeoMikeyNathanOllieSamuelWill
AnissaMatchXXXXXXXXXX
BrookeXXXXXXXXMatchXX
CCXXXXX50.0%X50.0%XXX
CourtneyXXXMatchXXXXXXX
DanielleXXXXMatchXXXXXX
DewXXXXXX50.0%XXX50.0%
JordanneXXXXXX50.0%50.0%XXX
Julia RuthXMatchXXXXXXXXX
MijntjeXXXXXXXXXMatchX
RozXXXXX50.0%XXXX50.0%
TaylorXXMatchXXXXXXXX

It's 6 beams, which means Courtney and Eduardo are a confirmed perfect match, and the 2 remaining possibilities are:
  1. CC - Leo, Dew - Mikey, Jordanne - Nathan, Roz - Will
  2. CC - Nathan, Dew - Will, Jordanne - Mikey, Roz - Leo

11 comments:

  1. The fact that CC-Leo have a potential of being a perfect match is hilarious, especially with the whole date fiasco earlier in the season. Given that and the fact that they've been showing CC-Nathan & Roz-Leo a lot more, I would bet that it's the 2nd option for sure.

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    Replies
    1. with them probably confusing Dew-Mikey as a match

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  2. I agree it's option 2 look back there are clips showing a lot of Mikey and Jordanne. Dew and Mikey I'm still puzzled by but who knows. I think its because Dew hasn't really shown much to us except no no no. I wonder if she truly wants to be there?

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  3. I just wonder how much of a grasp the cast has on the data here. I mean, of their seven pairings, they formed *four* couples that we know to be no-matches. Obviously, they had not figured out that these couples can't be perfect matches, so what else do they not know?! It at least suggests to me that they haven't done any vetting of proposed solutions (i.e., running them through all ceremony results), since they would be unable to (accurately) find that any solution containing the no-matches satisfies the conditions of all past ceremonies. Although it's possible the producers tell them not to do this until the final ceremony. Anyway, they're in good shape; assuming they have two ceremonies left, they can try both remaining solutions, and that's without the benefit of the two additional Truth Booths that they will have. However, it's also entirely possible for them to flub it by wasting the Booths on known no-matches, and pairing up in Ceremony 9 in a way that fails to test the critical information.

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    Replies
    1. Not necessarily. Since they can't pick who goes in the truth booth it is going to be a little challenging. These challenges they can not just throw it and give it to the couple that needs it

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    2. That's true; it's not guaranteed that they will have the option of choosing a couple whose result is not already known to us. Hopefully, they will at least get a couple in there whose result is useful to the cast, given that the cast are not perfect computers already aware of everything that is computationally knowable.

      Sometimes, I think it would be useful to have a parallel track of what the cast actually explicitly knows. Like, where all matches are possible unless they were revealed as a no match in the truth booth, or sat together in a blackout, or a ceremony where all beams have been confirmed.

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    3. I run that analysis - tracking pairs with logic but no computer to run scenarios. This season was interesting in that, because they actually didn't have a ton of information until late - unless you assumed Aqel and Anissa were a match. I actually started tracking it both ways during episode 7 because it narrowed things down significantly.

      I actually thought they gave the cast a lot more ability this season to get useful couples into the booth. The challenges themselves, though, seemed to reveal very little and also included no teamwork, so it was hard to see couples develop.

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  5. Also shout-out to Aqel & Anissa, they kept the $$ in their pockets for the team.

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  6. I don't think Aqel and Anissa can be a couple. With process of elimination it doesn't seem to work out with the confirmed couples and non-couples.

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    Replies
    1. Working out every other option didn't work out so they have to be... I tried every other scenario from weeks 4 & 5 and nothing worked.

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