Wednesday, March 15, 2023

Season 9, Episode 10 Probabilities

Truth Booth #9

Mikey and Roz are no match, leaving the house in the same place they were last week. 2 possibilities left.
AqelBrendanClayEduardoHamudiLeoMikeyNathanOllieSamuelWill
AnissaMatchXXXXXXXXXX
BrookeXXXXXXXXMatchXX
CCXXXXX50.0%X50.0%XXX
CourtneyXXXMatchXXXXXXX
DanielleXXXXMatchXXXXXX
DewXXXXXX50.0%XXX50.0%
JordanneXXXXXX50.0%50.0%XXX
Julia RuthXMatchXXXXXXXXX
MijntjeXXXXXXXXXMatchX
RozXXXXX50.0%XXXX50.0%
TaylorXXMatchXXXXXXXX


Matchup Ceremony #9
  • Will - Dew
  • Mikey - Jordanne
  • Hamudi - Danielle (confirmed perfect match, repeat from ceremony 3)
  • Nathan - CC
  • Eduardo - Courtney (confirmed perfect match)
  • Leo - Roz (repeat from ceremonies 7 and 8)
  • Aqel - Anissa (confirmed perfect match, repeat from ceremonies 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, and 8)
With allusions to "doing this for the team" they're clearly attempting to send up a possibility that matches all of the past results.

Blackout probability: 0%
Instant win possible: Yes
Most likely number of lights: 7 or 11

And they win!
AqelBrendanClayEduardoHamudiLeoMikeyNathanOllieSamuelWill
AnissaMatchXXXXXXXXXX
BrookeXXXXXXXXMatchXX
CCXXXXXXXMatchXXX
CourtneyXXXMatchXXXXXXX
DanielleXXXXMatchXXXXXX
DewXXXXXXXXXXMatch
JordanneXXXXXXMatchXXXX
Julia RuthXMatchXXXXXXXXX
MijntjeXXXXXXXXXMatchX
RozXXXXXMatchXXXXX
TaylorXXMatchXXXXXXXX

Wednesday, March 8, 2023

Season 9, Episode 9 Probabilities

Truth Booth #8

Taylor goes into the Truth Booth with Clay (50%) instead of Jordanne and Eduardo (no match). It's a perfect match! Additionally, all 3 remaining possibilities have Danielle and Hamudi as a perfect match.
  1. CC - Leo, Courtney - Eduardo, Dew - Mikey, Jordanne - Nathan, Roz - Will
  2. CC - Eduardo, Courtney - Mikey, Dew - Leo, Jordanne - Nathan, Roz - Will
  3. CC - Nathan, Courtney - Eduardo, Dew - Will, Jordanne - Mikey, Roz - Leo

AqelBrendanClayEduardoHamudiLeoMikeyNathanOllieSamuelWill
AnissaMatchXXXXXXXXXX
BrookeXXXXXXXXMatchXX
CCXXX33.3%X33.3%X33.3%XXX
CourtneyXXX66.7%XX33.3%XXXX
DanielleXXXXMatchXXXXXX
DewXXXXX33.3%33.3%XXX33.3%
JordanneXXXXXX33.3%66.7%XXX
Julia RuthXMatchXXXXXXXXX
MijntjeXXXXXXXXXMatchX
RozXXXXX33.3%XXXX66.7%
TaylorXXMatchXXXXXXXX


Matchup Ceremony #8
  • Jordanne - Eduardo (confirmed no match, repeat from ceremonies 3, 4, and 5)
  • Courtney - Hamudi (confirmed no match, repeat from ceremony 7)
  • Danielle - Nathan (confirmed no match)
  • Dew - Mikey
  • Roz - Leo (repeat from ceremony 7)
  • CC - Will (confirmed no match)
  • Anissa - Aqel (confirmed perfect match, repeat from ceremonies 2, 3, 4, 5, and 7)
Blackout probability: 0% (0 of 3)
Instant win possible: No
Maximum number of lights: 6
Most likely number of lights: 6

5 beams means it's combination #2 above, while 6 beams narrow it down to either #1 or #3.
AqelBrendanClayEduardoHamudiLeoMikeyNathanOllieSamuelWill
AnissaMatchXXXXXXXXXX
BrookeXXXXXXXXMatchXX
CCXXXXX50.0%X50.0%XXX
CourtneyXXXMatchXXXXXXX
DanielleXXXXMatchXXXXXX
DewXXXXXX50.0%XXX50.0%
JordanneXXXXXX50.0%50.0%XXX
Julia RuthXMatchXXXXXXXXX
MijntjeXXXXXXXXXMatchX
RozXXXXX50.0%XXXX50.0%
TaylorXXMatchXXXXXXXX

It's 6 beams, which means Courtney and Eduardo are a confirmed perfect match, and the 2 remaining possibilities are:
  1. CC - Leo, Dew - Mikey, Jordanne - Nathan, Roz - Will
  2. CC - Nathan, Dew - Will, Jordanne - Mikey, Roz - Leo

Wednesday, March 1, 2023

Season 9, Episode 8 Probabilities

Truth Booth #7

Hamudi and Mijntje go into the Truth Booth. They're a popular couple, but their odds went way down after sitting together in last week's Matchup Ceremony. No match! That brings it down to 519 possibilities.

AqelBrendanClayEduardoHamudiLeoMikeyNathanOllieSamuelWill
Anissa39.3%X11.8%4.4%X5.4%6.7%20.2%X6.4%5.8%
BrookeXXXXXXXXMatchXX
CC10.2%XX11.8%14.8%10.8%3.9%25.0%X12.3%11.2%
CourtneyXX11.9%9.2%9.2%8.9%9.1%13.9%X7.5%30.3%
Danielle6.9%X15.2%9.6%30.8%XX21.0%X9.2%7.1%
Dew10.2%XX10.4%17.9%12.5%12.9%XX20.8%15.2%
Jordanne5.2%X13.5%25.4%9.8%6.0%10.2%19.8%X10.0%X
Julia RuthXMatchXXXXXXXXX
Mijntje9.1%X21.6%13.3%X10.4%20.6%XX11.8%13.3%
Roz10.0%XXX17.3%13.3%21.4%XX20.8%17.1%
Taylor9.1%X26.0%15.8%X32.8%15.2%XX1.2%X


Matchup Ceremony #7
Due to Sam leaving the house, they confirm his perfect match right away - it's Mijntje, who now has to leave the house. This brings it down to 61 combinations.
AqelBrendanClayEduardoHamudiLeoMikeyNathanOllieSamuelWill
Anissa42.6%X23.0%4.9%X3.3%4.9%16.4%XX4.9%
BrookeXXXXXXXXMatchXX
CC13.1%XX18.0%16.4%11.5%X27.9%XX13.1%
CourtneyXX11.5%11.5%3.3%8.2%11.5%19.7%XX34.4%
Danielle8.2%X19.7%8.2%47.5%XX11.5%XX4.9%
Dew14.8%XX27.9%6.6%11.5%23.0%XXX16.4%
Jordanne8.2%X19.7%23.0%8.2%3.3%13.1%24.6%XXX
Julia RuthXMatchXXXXXXXXX
MijntjeXXXXXXXXXMatchX
Roz4.9%XXX18.0%9.8%41.0%XXX26.2%
Taylor8.2%X26.2%6.6%X52.5%6.6%XXXX


Now on to the matchups:
  • Will - Danielle (repeat from ceremony 6)
  • Aqel - Anissa (repeat from ceremonies 2, 3, 4, and 5)
  • Hamudi - Courtney
  • Nathan - Jordanne
  • Leo - Roz
  • Clay - Taylor (repeat from ceremony 6)
  • Mikey - CC (repeat from ceremony 6)
  • Eduardo - Dew (repeat from ceremony 6)
Blackout probability: 18% (11 of 61)
Instant win possible: No, did not repeat enough couples from ceremony 3 or 5, too many from ceremony 6
Maximum number of lights: 7
Most likely number of lights: 4

It's a surprising 6 beams, which means only 6 combinations are left. All 6 combinations have Aqel and Anissa together, which means they're the first inferred perfect match.

AqelBrendanClayEduardoHamudiLeoMikeyNathanOllieSamuelWill
AnissaMatchXXXXXXXXXX
BrookeXXXXXXXXMatchXX
CCXXX16.7%16.7%33.3%X33.3%XXX
CourtneyXX16.7%33.3%16.7%X33.3%XXXX
DanielleXX33.3%X66.7%XXXXXX
DewXXX50.0%X16.7%16.7%XXX16.7%
JordanneXXXXXX33.3%66.7%XXX
Julia RuthXMatchXXXXXXXXX
MijntjeXXXXXXXXXMatchX
RozXXXXX16.7%XXXX83.3%
TaylorXX50.0%XX33.3%16.7%XXXX

The 6 remaining possibilities are:
  1. CC - Hamudi, Courtney - Mikey, Danielle - Clay, Dew - Eduardo, Jordanne - Nathan, Roz - Will, Taylor - Leo
  2. CC - Nathan, Courtney - Hamudi, Danielle - Clay, Dew - Eduardo, Jordanne - Mikey, Roz - Will, Taylor - Leo
  3. CC - Leo, Courtney - Clay, Danielle - Hamudi, Dew - Eduardo, Jordanne - Nathan, Roz - Will, Taylor - Mikey
  4. CC - Leo, Courtney - Eduardo, Danielle - Hamudi, Dew - Mikey, Jordanne - Nathan, Roz - Will, Taylor - Clay
  5. CC - Eduardo, Courtney - Mikey, Danielle - Hamudi, Dew - Leo, Jordanne - Nathan, Roz - Will, Taylor - Clay
  6. CC - Nathan, Courtney - Eduardo, Danielle - Hamudi, Dew - Will, Jordanne - Mikey, Roz - Leo, Taylor - Clay