Wednesday, September 12, 2018

Season 7, Episode 6 Probabilities - Live Blog

10:10: Kwasi is grilling Kenya. Trying to figure out if she's still into Tevin. Says that Jasmine gave Tevin head on the bus!

10:11: Forget Taco Tuesday - it's Fight Night!

10:16: Jasmine, hanging out with Nutsa, says Tevin shares the blame... Kenya forgives Tevin! Interesting!

10:18: It's Zak and Morgan getting together.

10:19: Then it's Moe, Samantha, and Cali hanging out. Totally drama free. They feel like observers in the house rather than participants!

10:20: Ohhhh Moe is the funnest guy in the house!

10:21: Daniel hits the Fate Button and gets Kenya and Morgan.

10:24: Asia hits the Fate Button and... it's Brett and Kwasi.

10:30: Lots of best friends drama as Bria is mad at Morgan hooking up with Zak, and with Tevin being scared about losing his best friend Brett to Kenya.

Truth Booth #4

10:31: It's Brett and Kenya (6.3%) going to the Truth Booth and everyone is talking about the negative consequences if they're a match. Weird vibe.

10:36: Never seen a couple so happy about being no match before. They bring it down to 35,322 remaining combinations.

AndrewBrettCamDanielKwasiLewisMoeShamoyTevinTomasZak
AsiaX14.8%8.1%10.5%11.5%13.6%11.5%X7.5%11.3%11.2%
Bria10.3%9.7%7.1%9.4%10.1%9.6%14.6%X6.5%12.3%10.3%
Cali9.4%21.1%6.4%8.8%9.2%9.0%9.0%X5.9%11.9%9.2%
Jasmine10.2%9.8%7.0%9.5%12.1%14.6%10.5%X6.5%10.0%9.7%
Kayla7.2%6.7%39.9%6.7%7.3%7.0%7.1%X3.8%7.3%7.1%
Kenya7.3%X4.2%6.8%7.6%7.2%7.3%X44.7%7.6%7.3%
Lauren21.9%9.0%6.4%8.6%11.9%9.1%9.0%X5.8%9.3%9.0%
MariaXXXXXXXMatchXXX
Morgan13.7%9.8%7.2%9.4%10.2%9.9%10.2%X6.7%10.5%12.2%
Nutsa9.7%9.3%6.7%19.2%9.6%9.5%11.1%X6.1%9.6%9.4%
Samantha10.2%9.8%7.1%11.0%10.3%10.4%9.7%X6.5%10.2%14.7%

10:39: Bria isn't happy with Morgan. She's the baddest bitch in the house.

10:42: Asia trying to rally the house around strategy. Our guest blogger Nicole chimes in: "Asia likes being clean. Clearly she and Moe are a match."

Matchup Ceremony #4

10:44: Kayla picks Brett and Cam is pissed! He put all his eggs in one basket. But then Cam gets to be the second pick.
  • Kayla - Brett
  • Asia - Cam
  • Samantha - Moe
  • Morgan - Zak (repeat from ceremony 3)
  • Nutsa - Andrew
  • Lauren - Daniel
  • Cali - Tomas (repeat from ceremony 1)
  • Jasmine - Tevin
  • Kenya - Lewis
  • Bria - Kwasi
Blackout odds: 40.6% (14,348 of 35,322)
Instant win possible: No (less than 3 couples repeated from ceremony 1)
Most likely number of lights: 1 (blackout)

10:56: The most likely outcome is a blackout. And they cut to commercial...

11:00: It's two beams. And Terrence J starts talking trash. Kinda rude. He doesn't seem happy with the house. 12,860 possibilities remain.

AndrewBrettCamDanielKwasiLewisMoeShamoyTevinTomasZak
AsiaX15.2%9.6%9.8%11.5%13.5%11.3%X7.1%11.2%10.7%
Bria10.4%9.2%6.8%9.1%11.4%9.8%14.3%X6.2%12.7%10.1%
Cali9.5%20.9%6.3%9.0%9.2%8.8%8.9%X6.0%12.0%9.5%
Jasmine10.4%9.6%7.0%9.3%11.8%14.1%10.4%X7.2%10.1%10.1%
Kayla7.1%7.5%40.1%6.7%7.0%6.8%7.0%X3.8%7.1%7.0%
Kenya7.2%X4.0%6.6%7.3%8.4%7.2%X44.9%7.3%7.1%
Lauren21.7%8.7%6.0%9.7%12.4%8.9%8.6%X5.7%9.2%9.0%
MariaXXXXXXXMatchXXX
Morgan13.3%9.8%6.9%9.5%10.1%10.1%10.3%X6.7%10.8%12.4%
Nutsa10.6%9.5%6.5%19.2%9.1%9.2%10.8%X6.0%9.7%9.4%
Samantha10.0%9.6%6.8%11.0%10.0%10.5%11.2%X6.4%9.9%14.6%

Wednesday, September 5, 2018

Season 7, Episode 5 Probabilities - Live Blog

10:05: We got Shamoy and Maria in the Honeymoon Suite while the rest of the house tries to break up the week 1 "power couples."

10:06: A very relaxing-looking relationship rehab.

10:07: Terrence J says there's no truth booth or matchup ceremony this week. Interesting...

10:15: The first ex shows up and... big surprise, it's Zak's. The entire house is ready to unleash Bria on her.

10:16: Bria... at this point it's predictable.

10:17: A peaceful moment with Samantha and Daniel. And then Samantha's ex Tyler shows up.

10:21: Kenya's ex Daryl looks just like Tevin!

10:28: Zak is up and down with his ex. Morgan thinks he's moving on.

10:31: Kayla's ex Ikaika seems like he's got something sinister going on.

10:46: Ikaika definitely knows how to get under Kayla's skin... and now he wants to fight Cam.

10:52: Tomas tackles Ikaika and Kwasi is pumped!!

10:55: Back to the Bria show...

11:01: With Kayla out of the picture, Jasmine moves in on Tevin.

Wednesday, August 29, 2018

Season 7, Episode 4 Probabilities - Live Blog

10:03: Asia and Kenya got Bria's back.

10:04: Samantha becomes the first girl to turn down Zak. Lewis loves it!

10:05: Really weird interaction between Maria and Shamoy... both really apprehensive to get in the shower.

10:07: Asia and Kenya also teaming up with Lewis. Hmm...

10:09: Oops... turns out Asia didn't know Kenya topped Lewis off.

10:16: Nutsa hits the Fate Button and it's Shamoy and Lewis.

10:17: Kwasi hits the Fate Button... the whole house is calling for Maria, and Lauren goes too. Best odds are Maria and Shamoy (47.6%), and it seems likely they'll go to the Truth Booth.

10:20: Lauren fell off a horse. Lewis jumps up and comes to her rescue.

10:26: Back at the house... Samantha and Daniel, Moe and Kayla hitting it off.

Truth Booth #3

10:30: Maria and Shamoy headed to the Truth Booth, and sharing some questionable thoughts on probability...

10:34: Perfect match! Wow! The house rejoices. 136,848 combinations left.

AndrewBrettCamDanielKwasiLewisMoeShamoyTevinTomasZak
AsiaX16.3%8.7%8.7%16.3%10.4%10.4%X8.7%10.3%10.4%
Bria10.4%9.2%7.8%7.8%9.2%9.2%14.7%X7.8%9.3%14.7%
Cali10.3%14.3%7.9%7.9%9.3%9.3%9.3%X7.9%14.5%9.3%
Jasmine10.4%9.2%7.8%7.8%9.2%14.7%14.7%X7.8%9.3%9.2%
Kayla8.7%7.8%31.6%6.4%7.8%7.8%7.8%X6.4%7.9%7.8%
Kenya8.7%7.8%6.4%6.4%7.8%7.8%7.8%X31.6%7.9%7.8%
Lauren16.3%9.2%7.8%7.8%14.1%9.2%9.2%X7.8%9.3%9.2%
MariaXXXXXXXMatchXXX
Morgan16.3%9.2%7.8%7.8%9.2%9.2%9.2%X7.8%14.3%9.2%
Nutsa8.7%7.8%6.4%31.6%7.8%7.8%7.8%X6.4%7.9%7.8%
Samantha10.4%9.2%7.8%7.8%9.2%14.7%9.2%X7.8%9.3%14.7%

10:36: Zak moving in on Cali too. Mesmerized by her.

10:38: Cali doing a good job of recognizing toxic behavior from Brett... also calls him Zak about 5 times. Oops.

Matchup Ceremony #3

10:58: Cam is so judgmental!
  • Lewis - Asia
  • Cam - Kayla (repeat from ceremonies 1 and 2)
  • Tevin - Kenya (repeat from ceremonies 1 and 2)
  • Daniel - Samantha
  • Brett - Cali (repeat from ceremony 1)
  • Andrew - Lauren (repeat from ceremony 1)
  • Tomas - Bria
  • Kwasi - Jasmine
  • Moe - Nutsa
  • Zak - Morgan
Blackout odds: 18.0% (24,672 of 136,848)
Instant win possible: No (more than 3 couples repeated from ceremony 1)
Most likely number of lights: 2

11:00: 3 beams. 37,681 possibilities remain.
AndrewBrettCamDanielKwasiLewisMoeShamoyTevinTomasZak
AsiaX13.9%7.8%10.6%11.8%14.0%11.6%X7.8%11.2%11.3%
Bria10.3%9.1%6.9%9.4%10.1%9.6%14.8%X6.9%12.6%10.4%
Cali9.5%19.8%6.3%8.8%9.3%9.1%9.2%X6.3%12.4%9.3%
Jasmine10.2%9.2%6.8%9.5%12.4%14.8%10.7%X6.8%10.0%9.6%
Kayla6.9%6.3%41.9%6.4%7.1%6.7%6.9%X3.9%7.1%6.9%
Kenya6.9%6.3%3.9%6.4%7.1%6.7%6.9%X41.9%7.1%6.9%
Lauren22.6%8.4%6.1%8.6%12.0%9.1%9.0%X6.1%9.2%9.0%
MariaXXXXXXXMatchXXX
Morgan13.8%9.2%7.0%9.4%10.2%9.9%10.3%X7.0%10.7%12.5%
Nutsa9.7%8.7%6.4%19.8%9.6%9.5%11.2%X6.4%9.5%9.4%
Samantha10.2%9.2%6.9%11.1%10.4%10.5%9.7%X6.9%10.3%14.8%

11:01: Terrence J says everyone is headed to an overnight relationship rehab instead of the standard Fate Button date.

Wednesday, August 22, 2018

Season 7, Episode 3 Probabilities - Live Blog

10:04: We start back again with the Bria drama... she tells Zack it's over.

10:05: Tevin mad that Kenya gave Lewis head.

10:07: Jasmine mad about Tevin. Two guys (not sure who?) comforting her.

10:11: Bria still territorial. And now Nutsa is mad that Morgan is moving in on Zak.

10:17: And we're finally away form the fights with Cali and Brett peacefully enjoying each other's company. Hopefully they go on the date next?

10:18: The fate button is back. Must be a lot less exciting for the housemates not having challenges.

10:19: Moe hits the fate button for the guys and it's Asia (hoping for Lewis) and Nutsa (hoping for Zak).

10:24: Morgan hits the fate button and it's Cam and Andrew. Hmmm... maybe this is really random?

10:26: Hamster balls in the water... seems like fun! But also very difficult. Apparently this is called "water zorbing."

10:27: The house working towards Asia and Cam in the house.

10:28: Nutsa up front... she's not attracted to Andrew. Doesn't seem like she's feeling Cam either.

10:30: Terrence J asking for the pulse of the room... and Tevin brings his triangle between Kenya and Jasmine to the front.

Truth Booth #2

It's Asia and Andrew (7.3%) headed to the Truth Booth. No match! 2,104,123 combinations left.

AndrewBrettCamDanielKwasiLewisMoeShamoyTevinTomasZak
AsiaX7.9%7.9%7.9%28.9%7.9%7.9%7.6%7.9%8.5%7.9%
Bria7.9%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.1%7.3%7.3%7.1%7.3%7.9%26.3%
Cali7.9%26.3%7.3%7.3%7.1%7.3%7.3%7.1%7.3%7.9%7.3%
Jasmine7.9%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.1%7.3%26.3%7.1%7.3%7.9%7.3%
Kayla7.9%7.3%26.3%7.3%7.1%7.3%7.3%7.1%7.3%7.9%7.3%
Kenya7.9%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.1%7.3%7.3%7.1%26.3%7.9%7.3%
Lauren28.9%7.1%7.1%7.1%6.9%7.1%7.1%6.9%7.1%7.6%7.1%
Maria8.5%7.9%7.9%7.9%7.6%7.9%7.9%28.9%7.9%X7.9%
Morgan7.6%7.1%7.1%7.1%6.9%7.1%7.1%6.9%7.1%28.9%7.1%
Nutsa7.9%7.3%7.3%26.3%7.1%7.3%7.3%7.1%7.3%7.9%7.3%
Samantha7.9%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.1%26.3%7.3%7.1%7.3%7.9%7.3%

10:37: Kenya and Jasmine get into a shouting match.

10:38: In one moment, Zak talks about wanting to line up a set of girls... then he starts talking about loyalty.

10:39: Then Bria and Morgan team up... Morgan pulls Nutsa away and Bria pulls Zak into the boom boom room.

10:43: Damn - Bria adamant that she has Zak under her control. And now Cali wants to insert herself into the drama!!

Matchup Ceremony #2

10:48: Samantha inserts herself into the Zak drama!! And Bria interjects into the ceremony! And is now flipping around that she doesn't like Zak anymore.

10:53: Lewis has got it - Bria acting like this is divorce court.

10:55: I forgot there was someone even named "Tomas" in this season. And "Shamoy" too.
  • Kenya - Tevin (repeat from ceremony 1)
  • Kayla - Cam (repeat from ceremony 1)
  • Jasmine - Lewis
  • Asia - Brett
  • Nutsa - Daniel (repeat from ceremony 1)
  • Samantha - Zak
  • Bria - Moe
  • Morgan - Andrew
  • Cali - Tomas
  • Lauren - Kwasi
  • Maria - Shamoy (repeat from ceremony 1)
Blackout odds: 36.4% (335,346 of 2,104,123)
Instant win possible: No, repeated more than 3 from ceremony 1
Most likely number of lights: 1

3 beams means 287,580 possibilities are left.

AndrewBrettCamDanielKwasiLewisMoeShamoyTevinTomasZak
AsiaX18.3%6.7%6.7%18.3%9.1%9.1%6.3%6.7%9.6%9.1%
Bria9.1%8.2%6.0%6.0%8.2%8.2%16.8%5.7%6.0%8.8%16.9%
Cali9.0%16.0%6.1%6.1%8.2%8.2%8.2%5.7%6.1%18.0%8.2%
Jasmine9.1%8.2%6.0%6.0%8.2%16.8%16.9%5.7%6.0%8.8%8.2%
Kayla6.7%6.1%43.8%4.3%6.1%6.0%6.0%4.0%4.3%6.5%6.0%
Kenya6.7%6.1%4.3%4.3%6.1%6.0%6.0%4.0%43.8%6.5%6.0%
Lauren18.3%8.2%6.1%6.1%16.0%8.2%8.2%5.8%6.1%8.8%8.2%
Maria7.1%6.4%4.5%4.5%6.5%6.4%6.4%47.6%4.5%X6.4%
Morgan18.0%8.1%6.0%6.0%8.1%8.1%8.1%5.7%6.0%17.6%8.1%
Nutsa6.7%6.1%4.3%43.8%6.1%6.0%6.0%4.0%4.3%6.5%6.0%
Samantha9.1%8.2%6.0%6.0%8.2%16.9%8.2%5.7%6.0%8.8%16.8%

Wednesday, August 15, 2018

Season 7, Episodes 1 & 2 Probabilities - Live Blog

MTV's Are You The One? season 7 features 11 men and 11 women looking for their perfect match. If they manage to guess the exactly right combination, they'll split $1,000,000.

Here I'll be keeping track of the possible remaining perfect match combinations (with the help of a computer), and looking into the potential strategy of playing this game. The math work here will be independent of the romance and excitement that comes with the pairings. Unless noted otherwise, assume the probabilities of a matchup here being successful are random, ignoring chemistry and all the parts of the show that are actually fun.

Prize and Probability of Winning

All 22 winners will split a 30-year annuity that will pay out $1,000,000. That means if they elect to take the present day "lump sum," they'll end up with around $22,000 each (in addition to a shot at finding their perfect match and getting some weekly face time on MTV).

The blackout rule, introduced in season 3, cuts the prize in half if a matchup ceremony results in no lights other than truth booths.

The number of possible permutations in the original game is 11 factorial = 11! = 11 * 10 * 9 * 8 * 7 * 6 * 5 * 4 * 3 * 2 * 1 = 39,916,800. Put simply, a random guess would have a 1 in 39,916,800 chance of winning (0.00000002505%). The calculations done here throughout the season evaluate all of those 39,916,800 possibilities against the information that's been shared through truth booths and matchup ceremonies to figure out the set of perfect matches. The easy way of saying it: I use a computer program to do a process of elimination in seconds.

The show has multiple challenges where additional information is provided, reducing the number of possible combinations. The contestants only have 10 episodes to find the perfect match, so they'll need to reduce it quickly to have a chance.

Live Blog

10:01: It's been more than half a year, but finally: time for the new season! They're in Kona, Hawaii at a very nice house!

10:04: ...and it's broken. They split the net by the pool.

10:05: We have Cam, a black Republican from West Virginia who declares his support for the president in the first 5 minutes.

10:08: We have a couple with their hands all over each other before bags have even hit the ground or we've found out who the host of the show is. Kenya and Tevin.

10:11: Bria and Zak are also hitting it off. There's also Morgan and Jasmine hanging out together and two guys who are going around teasing the couples too.

10:14: We got the first threat of violence before the first commercial break.

10:20: Cam just really upfront about loving Trump. Maybe too much. Does he have anything else going on?

10:21: Daniel is very... eloquent about wanting to avoid Bria.

10:23: Kenya and Tevin in the shower and the boom boom room. (Update: Lewis, not Tevin?)

10:24: Welcome back Terrence J for his second season of hosting. Ryan Devlin... back on Twitter.

10:28: This season's new twist is the Fate Button... which is going to nudge someone into a different direction. Someone will hit the Fate Button, which will pick two guys and two girls to go on a group date. Then the rest of the house will get to vote on their favorite pairing out of those four groups.

10:30: Tomas and Zak are going on the group date with Cali and Maria.

10:36: It's swimming with the dolphins!

10:40: Zak seems legit scared of Bria.

Truth Booth

10:48: The couple going into the Truth Booth is... Tomas and Maria. Who didn't actually spend any time together on the date.

10:53: Big surprise... no match! 36,288,000 combinations remain.

AndrewBrettCamDanielKwasiLewisMoeShamoyTevinTomasZak
Asia9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%10.0%9.0%
Bria9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%10.0%9.0%
Cali9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%10.0%9.0%
Jasmine9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%10.0%9.0%
Kayla9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%10.0%9.0%
Kenya9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%10.0%9.0%
Lauren9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%10.0%9.0%
Maria10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%X10.0%
Morgan9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%10.0%9.0%
Nutsa9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%10.0%9.0%
Samantha9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%10.0%9.0%

10:53: We got two hours of episodes tonight. Gonna keep going.

10:57: Lewis and Daniel are the stars of the show so far. Getting a big Gronk vibe from Daniel.

10:58: Daniel is trying to kiss every single girl in the house before the hour is up. He's living it up.

10:59: Tevin is a pretty bad actor at the confessional.

Matchup Ceremony

Same rules as the last few seasons - 0 perfect matches (other than those verified by the Truth Booth) is a blackout, resulting in the prize getting cut in half.
  • Zak - Bria
  • Tevin - Kenya
  • Kwasi - Asia
  • Brett - Cali
  • Cam - Kayla
  • Tomas - Morgan
  • Shamoy - Maria
  • Andrew - Lauren
  • Moe - Jasmine
  • Daniel - Nutsa
  • Lewis - Samantha

11:06: Tevin trying to stir up drama because he's mad at Kenya for kissing Daniel. And quick cut to commercial.

11:11: And 11 minutes later, he picks Kenya anyway. Daniel happy that he didn't mess anything up.

11:13: Kenya outs Cam in the house as a Trump supporter and everyone comes out and boos him. Wonder if he has anything other than this gimmick.

11:16: Samantha not having any of Lewis.

Blackout odds: 36.4% (13,216,113 of 36,288,000)
Instant win possible: Yes
Most likely number of lights: 1

11:21: The house is excited for their start with 3 beams! Just like last season, it leaves 2,269,449 possibilities.
AndrewBrettCamDanielKwasiLewisMoeShamoyTevinTomasZak
Asia7.3%7.3%7.3%7.3%26.8%7.3%7.3%7.1%7.3%7.8%7.3%
Bria7.3%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.1%7.3%7.8%26.8%
Cali7.3%26.8%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.1%7.3%7.8%7.3%
Jasmine7.3%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.3%26.8%7.1%7.3%7.8%7.3%
Kayla7.3%7.3%26.8%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.1%7.3%7.8%7.3%
Kenya7.3%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.1%26.8%7.8%7.3%
Lauren26.8%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.1%7.3%7.8%7.3%
Maria7.8%7.8%7.8%7.8%7.8%7.8%7.8%29.4%7.8%X7.8%
Morgan7.1%7.1%7.1%7.1%7.1%7.1%7.1%6.9%7.1%29.4%7.1%
Nutsa7.3%7.3%7.3%26.8%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.1%7.3%7.8%7.3%
Samantha7.3%7.3%7.3%7.3%7.3%26.8%7.3%7.1%7.3%7.8%7.3%

11:25: Cali and Brett hitting it off.

11:31: Brett and Tevin doing a new segment, BNT News. Surprised we haven't seen more bits like this.

11:35: Bria is the star of the show... can't even let Zak talk to anyone else.

11:37: Bria knocking on the door of the confessional booth. I think if she were one of the guys the producers would have stepped in by now.

11:40: Daniel and Lewis enjoying hanging just outside the confessional.

12:03: 15 more minutes of Bria drama. Yuck.

Wednesday, December 6, 2017

Wednesday, November 29, 2017

Season 6, Episode 11 Open Thread

I'm not able to live blog tonight, and we learned the perfect matches last week, so this post is open for comments!

Something that came up in the comments last week was the likelihood that the house figures it out. My thoughts:

When the house comes up with a combination, they are able to evaluate whether or not it is a possible winning combination. With 22 people, remembering that information shouldn't be so hard. We now know that there is only one possible winning combination left. So if the house is able to try combinations until they come up with one that matches all of the ceremonies and truth booths, that means they found the winning combination.

By comparison, in seasons 3 and 5, the house went into the final matchup ceremony with multiple possible winning combinations. That meant they could do their best to come up with a possible winning combination, which both seasons did, and still lose. Season 3 certainly beat the odds in that regard.

Terrence J did confirm that this season's house has the fewest perfect matches (0) to this point and a very low number of beams for matchup ceremony 8, but as we saw, they actually got it down to one possible winning combination quicker than some of the previous seasons, some of which only had 10 couples.