Wednesday, December 6, 2017

Wednesday, November 29, 2017

Season 6, Episode 11 Open Thread

I'm not able to live blog tonight, and we learned the perfect matches last week, so this post is open for comments!

Something that came up in the comments last week was the likelihood that the house figures it out. My thoughts:

When the house comes up with a combination, they are able to evaluate whether or not it is a possible winning combination. With 22 people, remembering that information shouldn't be so hard. We now know that there is only one possible winning combination left. So if the house is able to try combinations until they come up with one that matches all of the ceremonies and truth booths, that means they found the winning combination.

By comparison, in seasons 3 and 5, the house went into the final matchup ceremony with multiple possible winning combinations. That meant they could do their best to come up with a possible winning combination, which both seasons did, and still lose. Season 3 certainly beat the odds in that regard.

Terrence J did confirm that this season's house has the fewest perfect matches (0) to this point and a very low number of beams for matchup ceremony 8, but as we saw, they actually got it down to one possible winning combination quicker than some of the previous seasons, some of which only had 10 couples.

Wednesday, November 22, 2017

Season 6, Episode 10 Probabilities - Live Blog - The Matches are In!

Episode 10 tonight... looks like there will be an episode 11 next week.

As a reminder, either Michael - Audrey (62.5%) or Joe - Alivia (no match) are headed for the Truth Booth.

10:03: Diandra wouldn't mind being with Kareem...

10:05: Keith is pretty excited about Geles.

10:06: And Anthony moves in quick on Zoe... Geles strikes back!

10:09: Quick cut to Jada and Dimitri hanging out, and then... Geles starts moving in on Clinton, and the fighting starts again.

10:10: Tyler pointing out once again that the house isn't going to find matches if the no matches don't let go. One of the clingest casts yet...

10:22: More drama...

10:27: Not much chemistry between Alivia and Joe.

Truth Booth #8

10:29: Michael and Audrey head to the Truth Booth...

10:33: No match means we have 3 possibilities left and one confirmed perfect match: Nicole and Tyler.
AnthonyClintonDimitriEthanJoeKareemKeithMalcolmMichaelShadTyler
Alexis33.3%XXXXXX66.7%XXX
AliviaXXXXXXX33.3%X66.7%X
AudreyXX66.7%XXXXXX33.3%X
DiandraX33.3%XXX33.3%XX33.3%XX
GelesX66.7%XXXXXX33.3%XX
JadaXXX66.7%XX33.3%XXXX
Keyana66.7%XXXXXXX33.3%XX
NicoleXXXXXXXXXXMatch
NurysXX33.3%XX33.3%33.3%XXXX
UcheXXXX33.3%33.3%33.3%XXXX
ZoeXXX33.3%66.7%XXXXXX
  1. Alexis - Malcolm, Alivia - Shad, Audrey - Dimitri, Diandra - Michael, Geles - Clinton, Jada - Ethan, Keyana - Anthony, Nurys - Keith, Uche - Kareem, Zoe - Joe
  2. Alexis - Malcolm, Alivia - Shad, Audrey - Dimitri, Diandra - Clinton, Geles - Michael, Jada - Ethan, Keyana - Anthony, Nurys - Kareem, Uche - Keith, Zoe - Joe
  3. Alexis - Anthony, Alivia - Malcolm, Audrey - Shad, Diandra - Kareem, Geles - Clinton, Jada - Keith, Keyana - Michael, Nurys - Dimitri, Uche - Joe, Zoe - Ethan

Matchup Ceremony #8

10:50: Geles trying to decide between Clinton and Michael - a legit question!
  • Diandra - Dimitri (inferred no match, repeat from ceremonies 1, 6, 7)
  • Geles - Clinton (repeat from ceremonies 6 and 7)
  • Alivia - Anthony (inferred no match)
  • Jada - Joe (inferred no match)
  • Nurys - Kareem (repeat from ceremonies 6 and 7)
  • Nicole - Tyler (inferred perfect match, repeat from ceremonies 1, 3, 6, 7)
  • Keyana - Michael (repeat from ceremonies 1 and 2)
  • Audrey - Keith (inferred no match)
  • Alexis - Ethan (inferred no match, repeat from ceremony 3)
  • Zoe - Shad (inferred no match)
  • Uche - Malcolm (inferred no match)
Blackout odds: 0%
Instant win possible: No
Most likely number of lights: 2

It'll be either 2 or 3 beams. 3 beams means it's combination #3 above.

10:59: And 3 beams it is, which means your perfect matches are...
  • Nicole - Tyler
  • Alexis - Anthony
  • Alivia - Malcolm
  • Audrey - Shad
  • Diandra - Kareem
  • Geles - Clinton
  • Jada - Keith
  • Keyana - Michael
  • Nurys - Dimitri
  • Uche - Joe
  • Zoe - Ethan
Congrats to Keyana and Michael, whose big gut instinct out of the gate turned out to be right! A pretty amazing run as they figure out the 11 perfect matches in just 8 matchup ceremonies - faster than season 3, which only had 10.

AnthonyClintonDimitriEthanJoeKareemKeithMalcolmMichaelShadTyler
AlexisMatchXXXXXXXXXX
AliviaXXXXXXXMatchXXX
AudreyXXXXXXXXXMatchX
DiandraXXXXXMatchXXXXX
GelesXMatchXXXXXXXXX
JadaXXXXXXMatchXXXX
KeyanaXXXXXXXXMatchXX
NicoleXXXXXXXXXXMatch
NurysXXMatchXXXXXXXX
UcheXXXXMatchXXXXXX
ZoeXXXMatchXXXXXXX

THANK YOU to the thousands of readers of this blog following in real-time and the hundreds of thousands of you who follow along each season! We'll be back for more next week.

Wednesday, November 15, 2017

Season 6, Episode 9 Probabilities - Live Blog

We're on to the 7th matchup ceremony in the 9th episode. Anyone know if this is going to be a 10-episode season?

10:04: I want nothing to do with this Kareem and Alexis drama.

10:07: Now Malcolm trying to lie to Diandra about hooking up with Nurys.

10:13: Alexis brought her stuffed animal Bridget.

10:14: Tyler, Shad, Ethan, and Joe... are the least desirable guys? And are being fast-interviewed by a room full of girls. Tyler takes all his girls to Yogurtland for the first date.

10:15: Joe was in a cult?

10:17: Geles wants Michael's attention. Audrey is not happy!

10:24: Michael makes it up to Audrey with some makeup sex. Okay.

10:28: Kareem is pledging to be better... do you believe him?

10:33: Ethan defending Michael from the haters! Keyana also feels bad for him.

Matchup Ceremony #7
  • Kareem - Nurys (repeat from ceremony 6)
  • Anthony - Keyana (repeat from ceremonies 4, 6)
  • Michael - Audrey (repeat from ceremony 3)
  • Shad - Alivia
  • Keith - Jada
  • Diandra - Dimitri (repeat from ceremonies 1, 6)
  • Joe - Uche
  • Tyler - Nicole (repeat from ceremonies 1, 3, and 6)
  • Ethan - Zoe
  • Clinton - Geles (repeat from ceremony 6)
  • Malcolm - Alexis
Blackout odds: 0%
Instant win possible: No, did not repeat 3 couples from ceremony 1.
Most likely number of lights: 2

5 beams leave 8 possibilities!! A huge jump. But still no perfect matches.

AnthonyClintonDimitriEthanJoeKareemKeithMalcolmMichaelShadTyler
Alexis12.5%XXXX12.5%X50.0%XX25.0%
AliviaXXXXXXX12.5%X62.5%25.0%
AudreyXX25.0%XXXXX62.5%12.5%X
DiandraX12.5%62.5%XX12.5%XX12.5%XX
GelesX87.5%XXXXXX12.5%XX
JadaXXX87.5%XX12.5%XXXX
Keyana87.5%XXXXXXX12.5%XX
NicoleXXXXX25.0%X25.0%X12.5%37.5%
NurysXX12.5%XX12.5%75.0%XXXX
UcheXXXX12.5%37.5%12.5%12.5%X12.5%12.5%
ZoeXXX12.5%87.5%XXXXXX
  1. Alexis - Kareem, Alivia - Shad, Audrey - Michael, Diandra - Dimitri, Geles - Clinton, Jada - Ethan, Keyana - Anthony, Nicole - Malcolm, Nurys - Keith, Uche - Tyler, Zoe - Joe
  2. Alexis - Malcolm, Alivia - Tyler, Audrey - Michael, Diandra - Dimitri, Geles - Clinton, Jada - Ethan, Keyana - Anthony, Nicole - Shad, Nurys - Keith, Uche - Kareem, Zoe - Joe
  3. Alexis - Malcolm, Alivia - Shad, Audrey - Dimitri, Diandra - Michael, Geles - Clinton, Jada - Ethan, Keyana - Anthony, Nicole - Tyler, Nurys - Keith, Uche - Kareem, Zoe - Joe
  4. Alexis - Tyler, Alivia - Shad, Audrey - Michael, Diandra - Dimitri, Geles - Clinton, Jada - Ethan, Keyana - Anthony, Nicole - Malcolm, Nurys - Keith, Uche - Kareem, Zoe - Joe
  5. Alexis - Malcolm, Alivia - Tyler, Audrey - Michael, Diandra - Dimitri, Geles - Clinton, Jada - Ethan, Keyana - Anthony, Nicole - Kareem, Nurys - Keith, Uche - Shad, Zoe - Joe
  6. Alexis - Malcolm, Alivia - Shad, Audrey - Dimitri, Diandra - Clinton, Geles - Michael, Jada - Ethan, Keyana - Anthony, Nicole - Tyler, Nurys - Kareem, Uche - Keith, Zoe - Joe
  7. Alexis - Tyler, Alivia - Shad, Audrey - Michael, Diandra - Dimitri, Geles - Clinton, Jada - Ethan, Keyana - Anthony, Nicole - Kareem, Nurys - Keith, Uche - Malcolm, Zoe - Joe
  8. Alexis - Anthony, Alivia - Malcolm, Audrey - Shad, Diandra - Kareem, Geles - Clinton, Jada - Keith, Keyana - Michael, Nicole - Tyler, Nurys - Dimitri, Uche - Joe, Zoe - Ethan

10:45: Ethan goes streaking and suddenly Joe and Jada follow.

10:52: Time for a very late Getaway Challenge.

10:59: Michael - Audrey (62.5%) and Joe - Alivia (no match) win the date... but then Terrence J has a surprise. Boat party! See you next week!

Wednesday, November 8, 2017

Season 6, Episode 8 Probabilities - Live Blog

This house is still trailing... no perfect matches yet... can they figure it out?

10:03: Keith agrees not to have sex with his perfect match. (Alexis makes no such promises.)

10:04: Keyana sprained her foot and is on crutches.

10:05: It's ex day - and in a special twist, Joe's ex is Taylor from season 5!

10:06: Geles is freaking out that Anthony talked marriage and babies with his ex.

10:07: Uche's ex is stoic. Audrey calling Michael's ex Ariana a bitch... she can tell that they still have a rapport.

10:08: Shad's ex calls him exceptional! Tyler blunt about Keyana's promise ring not working out.

10:09: Clinton's ex holds up to Uche's interrogation.

10:10: Taylor clearly is the only ex with reality TV experience - picking a fight with Geles!

10:15: Taylor slams Geles's breasts and then says "I don't have time for you." But she does, right? Because she's here showing up on the show instead of doing something else.

10:17: Malcolm not happy that someone thought the nickname for his junk was marshmallow.

10:19: Keith wins the date with the woman of his choice. Alexis and Alivia tied... Alexis wants to keep an eye on Keith and Kareem wants to go into the Truth Booth with Alivia (1.5%).

10:24: Alexis wins the date by guessing correctly that Anthony's ex would take her back. Keith takes Alivia (6.8%) and Alexis takes Kareem (11.8%). Kareem seems more convinced that Alivia is his match!

10:25: Anthony and Diandra sneak off upstairs...

10:27: Diandra is in a triangle with two other guys that we know she's not a match with.

10:31: Keith being so cool with Alivia and she can't control herself around him. Cute!

10:34: Malcolm getting mad at Diandra for not being loyal to him. Not so cute.

10:39: Running a little late on this truth booth tonight...

10:40: Alexis pulls out the crazy eyes once Kareem tattles on Keith and Alivia kissing.

10:42: Too many possessive and crazy people in this house. They know they're not getting the money and are melting down over not getting the partners they want.

10:48: There are clear divides in the house. Some people clearly not interested in working together as a team to get the money.

10:50: Nurys and Diandra make peace.

10:51: Did they write Ethan out of the episode this week? (Big house, hard to give camera time to every housemate.)

10:53: Kareem is going nuts over the second kiss!

Truth Booth #7

Keith and Alivia are a no match! Still 428 possibilities.

AnthonyClintonDimitriEthanJoeKareemKeithMalcolmMichaelShadTyler
Alexis11.0%14.5%20.8%3.0%6.3%12.1%X8.6%9.8%9.3%4.4%
Alivia4.7%8.9%9.3%1.4%5.6%1.6%X55.6%5.4%5.1%2.3%
Audrey8.6%7.0%7.9%2.1%X6.3%7.5%4.9%8.9%44.2%2.6%
DiandraX10.0%24.1%2.3%5.8%25.9%12.9%X8.9%10.0%X
GelesX24.1%8.2%X4.0%9.1%11.7%12.9%23.4%4.2%2.6%
Jada7.7%X0.9%80.1%1.6%2.8%2.1%1.4%1.2%1.4%0.7%
Keyana42.5%8.6%8.6%X4.7%5.6%7.5%3.3%14.0%5.1%X
NicoleX4.2%X0.7%0.2%4.2%2.8%0.9%1.4%3.7%81.8%
Nurys6.5%14.3%11.9%3.3%7.7%13.1%32.0%XX9.6%1.6%
Uche13.1%XX4.2%9.8%12.9%18.0%8.4%22.7%7.0%4.0%
Zoe5.8%8.4%8.2%2.8%54.2%6.3%5.6%4.0%4.4%0.2%X

11:01: Kareem and Alexis are thrilled. Honestly, I can't remember a more miserable episode.

Wednesday, November 1, 2017

Season 6, Episode 7 Probabilities - Live Blog

Halfway through, this season's house has the most possibilities remaining... will they figure it out in time?

10:02: Keith and Alexis escaped all the commotion by heading off to the boom boom room.

10:13: The Getaway Challenge this week is a gumbo making challenge (each housemate only using one hand). Probably the most constructive challenge they've had so far!

10:20: Terrence J has to eat a lot of gumbo... some with cinnamon. The winners are Keith and Alexis (inferred no match) and Clinton and Geles (18.5%).

10:22: Diandra also thinking she and Malcolm have a shot... we know they don't.

10:24: Now Nurys fighting with Didi over Malcolm.

10:27: Bananas are flying and Clinton has to carry Didi away. Tyler has the right insight - that the no match couples are preventing people from meeting each other.

10:29: The house is pulling for Keith and Alexis... shout-out to DavidK93 for the explanation last week on why they're not a match:

Keith and Alexis sat together in ceremonies 1, 2, and 5; if they're a match, they were the only match in one-beam weeks 2 and 5. Many other couples from both weeks were repeated in other weeks, and would have to be wrong in those weeks. Eliminating those couples and other proven no-matches, plus any time Keith or Alexis were paired with anyone but each other, leaves exactly three possible couples for week 1, when there were three beams: Dimitri-Diandra, Keith-Alexis, and Tyler-Nicole. Then, eliminate any pairing that had someone from one of those couples with someone else. As a result, three-beam week 4 is left with exactly three couples: Anthony-Keyana, Malcolm-Alivia, and Michael-Geles. But if you then once again eliminate pairs that had one of those people with someone else, two-beam week 3 has only one possible match: Tyler-Nicole. Every other possible match has been ruled out, making that week's results impossible and disproving the initial assumption that Keith and Alexis were a match.

10:31: Do you view a sincere date like this differently knowing they're not a match?

Truth Booth #6

It's Keith and Alexis, who we already know are not a match. That means we're staying at 2,198 combinations left, still the worst in house history.

10:41: Speed dating round!! Probably a good way to START the season, but they're already in the second half.

10:43: Geles can't handle it.

Matchup Ceremony #6

10:50: "The Shad doesn't black out."

10:54: Ethan with the hat... groan
  • Keyana - Anthony (repeat from ceremony 4)
  • Alexis - Joe
  • Uche - Michael
  • Geles - Clinton
  • Zoe - Keith
  • Audrey - Shad (repeat from ceremonies 1, 4, and 5)
  • Nurys - Kareem
  • Diandra - Dimitri (repeat from ceremony 1)
  • Alivia - Malcolm (repeat from ceremony 4)
  • Nicole - Tyler (repeat from ceremonies 1 and 3)
  • Jada - Ethan (repeat from ceremonies 1 and 2)
Blackout odds: 0%
Instant win possible: No, did not repeat 2 couples from ceremony 3
Most likely number of lights: 3

4 beams means that they've narrowed it down to 459 possibilities. Still no perfect matches (inferred or confirmed) and no new inferred no matches...

AnthonyClintonDimitriEthanJoeKareemKeithMalcolmMichaelShadTyler
Alexis10.2%14.6%22.0%2.8%6.5%11.8%X8.9%9.8%9.2%4.1%
Alivia4.4%8.3%8.7%1.3%5.2%1.5%6.8%51.9%5.0%4.8%2.2%
Audrey8.3%6.8%8.3%2.0%X6.1%7.0%5.7%8.3%45.3%2.4%
DiandraX10.7%22.4%2.2%6.5%27.2%12.0%X9.2%9.8%X
GelesX23.3%8.3%X4.1%8.9%10.9%13.7%24.4%3.9%2.4%
Jada7.2%X0.9%81.5%1.5%2.6%2.0%1.3%1.1%1.3%0.7%
Keyana44.9%8.7%8.1%X4.8%5.2%7.0%3.5%13.1%4.8%X
NicoleX3.9%X0.7%0.2%3.9%2.6%0.9%1.3%3.5%83.0%
Nurys6.3%14.6%13.5%3.1%7.8%12.9%29.8%XX10.5%1.5%
Uche12.6%XX3.9%10.0%13.3%16.8%9.8%23.1%6.8%3.7%
Zoe6.1%9.2%7.8%2.6%53.2%6.5%5.2%4.4%4.8%0.2%X

Wednesday, October 25, 2017

Season 6, Episode 6 Probabilities - Live Blog

10:01: Welcome back to the live blog!

10:06: I feel bad for not knowing that the title of the weekly challenge is the Getaway Challenge! The guys guess and get to eliminate a different guy from the challenge. Date winners get to PICK their dates.

10:07: Audrey told her parents she was doing an internship...

10:08: Nurys's nickname is Chewie. Kareem eliminates Ethan...  out of strategy. Malcolm bounced on Diandra's. Anthony guesses Zoe's answer correctly, eliminating Shad. Nicole's parents wanting money knock out Michael. Jada's parents know Jada doesn't like the short guys Dimitri. Geles's mom comes in and Kareem gets confident... and wrong.

10:10: Alexis's grandmother steals the show... Ethan says he'd pick her over 8 of the girls. Just trying to get camera time??? And then Anthony gets knocked out, forgetting that Alexis basically kissed the whole house!!

10:11: Why is Clinton trying to step up? Shouldn't he let someone else answer the question and eliminate someone else?

10:15: Tyler steps us, like he should. And he gets it right - Uche's mom thinks she's a virgin. And Tyler is smart enough to keep Clinton in and knock out Joe. (Little do they know Joe has the highest probability of a match in the house!)

10:16: Tyler picks Jada (9.9%), but says he'd rather pick Nicole (36.6%). Clinton takes Uche (34.2%) and they're the early favorite for the Truth Booth. Keith, who quietly stayed alive, picks Alivia (7.9%) for the date because she's a better fit than Alexis (13.1%). Any doubt who's going to the Truth Booth?

10:18: Joe is jealous... thinking Alivia is the best looking girl in the house.

10:19: Kareem saying Joe needs to STEP UP! but that he won't.

Truth Booth #5

10:26: Big surprise, it's Clinton and Uche!

10:31: No match leaves 12,480 possibilities. Uche is crushed. Clint in disbelief.

AnthonyClintonDimitriEthanJoeKareemKeithMalcolmMichaelShadTyler
Alexis10.0%11.5%17.6%4.9%2.4%6.1%19.9%9.3%7.0%4.4%7.0%
Alivia7.9%9.6%7.4%6.0%1.5%27.8%5.0%20.6%5.2%3.7%5.4%
Audrey5.0%5.6%2.8%3.9%X3.7%3.3%4.7%1.9%67.1%1.9%
Diandra3.2%11.8%19.4%9.9%2.2%17.8%8.4%9.2%7.6%3.4%7.3%
GelesX14.0%9.8%10.9%2.3%8.2%9.0%14.5%22.9%0.6%7.8%
Jada10.2%10.7%8.3%25.6%2.4%5.4%6.6%9.2%6.2%4.1%11.3%
Keyana26.4%10.4%8.5%X2.1%5.4%6.6%8.8%22.9%2.6%6.2%
Nicole9.7%9.5%X13.9%0.5%6.5%6.7%8.1%6.1%2.0%36.9%
Nurys10.8%13.0%12.5%10.3%2.5%7.6%22.1%X8.2%5.6%7.4%
Uche14.3%X11.7%12.0%3.8%10.0%10.2%13.0%10.0%6.4%8.7%
Zoe2.6%3.9%1.9%2.7%80.3%1.4%2.3%2.6%2.2%0.1%X

10:39: Jada flipping out over Uche getting mad at her for moving in on Clinton.

Matchup Ceremony #5

10:51: Joe is saying they're playing the game all wrong... but he and Zoe are the most likely match.

10:53: Ethan mad that the girls are clustering around a specific group of guys while nobody seems to want him, but he's right that someone in the house has to be his match and that they should be pursuing that.
  • Anthony - Nicole
  • Malcolm - Diandra
  • Kareem - Alivia (repeat from ceremonies 1-3)
  • Joe - Zoe (repeat from ceremonies 1, 3, and 4)
  • Shad - Audrey (repeat from ceremonies 1 and 4)
  • Tyler - Keyana
  • Ethan - Geles
  • Keith - Alexis (repeat from ceremonies 1 and 2)
  • Clinton - Jada
  • Dimitri - Uche
  • Michael - Nurys
Blackout odds: 0.2% (21 of 12,480)
Instant win possible: No, repeated more than 3 couples from ceremony 1
Most likely number of lights: 2

10:58: Joe is cheering for a blackout - that would certainly reduce the possibilities by a lot.

10:59: It's 1 beam. 2,198 combinations remain. Terrence J is really negative towards the house, cursing and telling them they are going to lose the million.
AnthonyClintonDimitriEthanJoeKareemKeithMalcolmMichaelShadTyler
Alexis10.4%14.5%27.6%5.8%4.5%9.4%X7.8%6.9%9.6%3.4%
Alivia9.8%12.4%6.6%4.1%4.5%1.1%6.2%38.8%6.1%8.1%2.3%
Audrey11.5%11.2%7.0%5.4%X8.2%7.5%8.7%3.8%33.8%2.9%
DiandraX11.3%26.9%4.0%3.8%31.1%7.0%X6.3%9.7%X
GelesX18.5%9.8%X4.0%11.0%10.4%16.9%23.7%2.5%3.2%
Jada10.2%X3.5%59.0%3.0%4.3%3.6%4.0%1.0%5.4%6.0%
Keyana25.6%7.5%6.2%X3.0%4.7%5.1%5.6%37.4%5.0%X
NicoleX4.4%X6.7%0.3%4.1%1.8%1.4%1.1%3.4%76.8%
Nurys9.9%12.7%8.3%3.9%4.0%8.1%41.6%XX10.0%1.4%
Uche17.6%XX8.5%7.7%13.8%12.7%13.1%10.2%12.4%4.0%
Zoe5.0%7.6%4.1%2.7%65.1%4.1%4.0%3.8%3.4%0.2%X

We have a few new inferred no matches - including a number of VERY high profile couples, sound off in the comments if you can figure out why they're guaranteed not to be matches!
  • Alexis & Keith
  • Diandra & Anthony, Malcolm, or Tyler
  • Geles & Ethan
  • Jada & Clinton
  • Keyana & Tyler
  • Nicole & Anthony
  • Nurys & Michael
  • Uche & Dimitri