Wednesday, November 7, 2018

Season 7, Episode 14 Probabilities - Live Blog

Let's get to it - the last matchup ceremony of the season (reunion next week). Can they win it tonight? Doesn't look good.

Truth Booth #10, continued

10:03: Nutsa and Brett are a perfect match! Two possibilities left.
  1. Asia - Kwasi, Bria - Tomas, Cali - Moe, Jasmine - Lewis, Kayla - Zak, Lauren - Daniel, Morgan - Cam, Nutsa - Brett, Samantha - Andrew
  2. Asia - Tomas, Bria - Cam, Cali - Andrew, Jasmine - Daniel, Kayla - Moe, Lauren - Kwasi, Morgan - Zak, Nutsa - Brett, Samantha - Lewis

Brett talking the house out of sending them into Truth Booth #7 looks rough in retrospect.

10:03: Samantha is willing to go down with the ship with Daniel. And that would be a losing choice.

10:05: Cali seems to be talking herself into Andrew... Zak not sure about Morgan.

10:07: Asia running some speed dating right now... The speed dating seems to be centering on option 2 (last week's option 3)... showing Asia and Tomas, Lauren and Kwasi, and Bria and Cam.

10:09: They're doing the "stand together and rotate" exercise. Definitely the right strategy. Starting to hone in more on option 2...

10:10: As a reminder, if their memory is perfect, they should be able to work together to narrow it down to one of these two working combinations. If the 22 people each remember who they were sitting with during a given week, and how many beams they had each week... it's definitely easier than a single person trying to come up with the right answer.

10:11: Even more interesting... if they DO pick one of these two combinations... the last matchup ceremony will be either 3 beams (a blackout) or all 11 beams.

10:15: Strategically, Sam isn't wrong to want to push for another combination... but it seems like they got pretty conclusive

10:17: Asia and Bria decide to arm Kayla with the info that Cali and Dan kissed on the party night... and then... Moe steps in???? He offers to share the info!!

10:18: Moe goes in!!! Sam doesn't believe him!

10:22: Starting the matchup ceremony 22 minutes into an hour-long episode does NOT bode well for the house. What will you do with all the time? Just show them celebrating?

Matchup Ceremony #10

10:24: Andrew is already talking marriage. WOW.

10:26: It's not clear whether the house walked through Samantha and Daniel not being a match. Certainly, if they did... there's no possibility.

10:31: She picks Lewis. They're on the way.

10:32: Lauren wants Kwasi for his BBC. Kwasi wants Lauren because she's like his mom.
  • Cali - Andrew (repeat from ceremony 9)
  • Kayla - Moe (repeat from ceremonies 8 and 9)
  • Morgan - Zak (repeat from ceremonies 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7)
  • Samantha - Lewis (repeat from ceremony 1)
  • Jasmine - Daniel
  • Lauren - Kwasi (repeat from ceremony 2)
  • Asia - Tomas
  • Bria - Cam
10:33: So they pick option 2!! It's either 3 beams or 11 beams.

10:35: 4 beams. They win.

Here are your perfect matches:
  • Maria - Shamoy (truth booth #3)
  • Kayla - Tevin (matchup ceremony #7)
  • Nutsa - Brett (truth booth #9)
  • Cali - Andrew (matchup ceremony #10)
  • Kayla - Moe (matchup ceremony #10)
  • Morgan - Zak (matchup ceremony #10)
  • Samantha - Lewis (matchup ceremony #10)
  • Jasmine - Daniel (matchup ceremony #10)
  • Lauren - Kwasi (matchup ceremony #10)
  • Asia - Tomas (matchup ceremony #10)
  • Bria - Cam (matchup ceremony #10)
10:51: Ooh... we saw a clip of this earlier, but it seems like Kwasi is moving in on Maria even though she's been with Shamoy for a while. She's tempted, but backs out.

10:52: Lewis and Asia finally break the tension!

Thanks to all of you who read and commented this season! We've had hundreds of thousands of visitors visiting millions of times over the first seven seasons. Casting is open for season 8 now... and it looks like they are considering a sexually fluid cast.

Wednesday, October 24, 2018

Season 7, Episode 13 Probabilities - Live Blog

10:05: Cali talking family. Andrew talking marriage???

10:09: Sam and Tomas?

Matchup Ceremony #9
  • Brett - Bria
  • Kwasi - Nutsa (inferred no match after ceremony 8)
  • Andrew - Cali
  • Moe - Kayla (repeat from ceremony 8)
  • Daniel - Lauren (repeat from ceremony 4)
  • Tomas - Jasmine
  • Lewis - Asia (repeat from ceremony 3, inferred no match after ceremony 7)
  • Cam - Morgan
  • Zak - Samantha (repeat from ceremony 2)
Blackout probabilities:  44% (15 of 34)
Instant win possible: No (fewer than 3 couples repeated from ceremony 1)
Maximum number of lights:  5
Most likely number of lights:  2 (blackout)

4 beams mean 5 possibilities remain.

  1. Asia - Kwasi, Bria - Tomas, Cali - Moe, Jasmine - Lewis, Kayla - Zak, Lauren - Daniel, Morgan - Cam, Nutsa - Brett, Samantha - Andrew
  2. Asia - Kwasi, Bria - Brett, Cali - Daniel, Jasmine - Lewis, Kayla - Moe, Lauren - Tomas, Morgan - Zak, Nutsa - Cam, Samantha - Andrew
  3. Asia - Tomas, Bria - Cam, Cali - Andrew, Jasmine - Daniel, Kayla - Moe, Lauren - Kwasi, Morgan - Zak, Nutsa - Brett, Samantha - Lewis
  4. Asia - Kwasi, Bria - Daniel, Cali - Andrew, Jasmine - Lewis, Kayla - Moe, Lauren - Cam, Morgan - Zak, Nutsa - Tomas, Samantha - Brett
  5. Asia - Moe, Bria - Lewis, Cali - Andrew, Jasmine - Tomas, Kayla - Kwasi, Lauren - Cam, Morgan - Zak, Nutsa - Daniel, Samantha - Brett
Let's talk strategy. Sending a 20% or 80% couple into the Truth Booth seems like the right move. Getting lucky means we'll only have one combination going into the Matchup Ceremony.

Things look bleak - if we had full control over the Truth Booth and Matchup Ceremony, with all the information we have right now... we only have a 40% chance of winning.

10:43: Brett and Moe are the Fate Button's choice.

10:49: Nutsa and Lauren are also going on the date.

Moe is not a match with either of the women. Brett is not a match with Lauren and Nutsa is a 40% chance...

So, we will not know the right combination going into the finale. Either 2, 3, or 5 combinations will be left depending on which couple is going to the Truth Booth.

Truth Booth #10

It's Brett and Nutsa going to the Truth Booth.

Unfortunately, if the Truth Booth says Brett and Nutsa are a perfect match, we won't be able to infer any other perfect matches.

Brett and Nutsa being a no match will show that Zak and Morgan are a perfect match.

Wednesday, October 17, 2018

Season 7, Episode 12 Probabilities - Live Blog

Truth Booth #8, continued

As expected, we start off with Tevin and Kenya being a perfect match, with 128 combinations remaining.

10:05: Some low-probability couples going on ... Samantha is convinced that Tevin and Kenya having some friction means Daniel could still be her match. Kwasi and Jasmine go out for a date.

Matchup Ceremony #8
  • Asia - Daniel
  • Lauren - Cam
  • Bria - Lewis (repeat from ceremonies 6 and 7)
  • Samantha - Andrew (repeat from ceremony 5)
  • Kayla - Moe
  • Cali - Zak
  • Morgan - Tomas
  • Nutsa - Brett (repeat from ceremonies 5, 6, and 7)
  • Jasmine - Kwasi (repeat from ceremonies 3 and 5)
Blackout probabilities:  21% (27 of 128)
Instant win possible: No (fewer than 3 couples repeated from ceremony 1)
Maximum number of lights:  6
Most likely number of lights:  3

10:23: 4 beams means 34 possibilities left. Possibilities after the jump.

10:26: Jasmine and Morgan expressing their frustration about not having enough sex. Jasmine apparently has been holding out. Morgan... runs into Zak immediately after this conversation, and then closes the door.

10:31: Weirdly, feels like Morgan's attitude towards sex with Zak fits pretty well with him. They're the second-highest probability couple.

10:32: Lots of fighting. People seem more concerned with fighting than trying to figure out their matches.

10:36: Brett's Fate Button press puts Jasmine and Samantha on the date.

10:37: Cali's Fate Button press sends off Tomas and Cam.  Most likely couple is either Jasmine and either Tomas and Cam - 14.7% each.

10:40: Samantha and Cam seem to be hitting it off... but they're not a match. We already know this.

10:43: Tomas... has no game. Jasmine not impressed with his love of High School Musical.

Truth Booth #9

10:48: Cam and Jasmine kissed, and Kwasi is not happy with that.

10:51: Cam and Samantha head off to the Truth Booth... we know they are not a match. So it's still 34 combinations remaining.

Two wasted Truth Booths in a row... and now, the possibility that we may not know all of the matches by the end of the 10th matchup ceremony seems to be very real. This aimless house has a ton of people in it who aren't feeling anyone!

10:59: Kwasi is fed up with Jasmine... potentially a good move as they are also not a match.

11:00: Wow, total meltdown by Kwasi! Andrew is hyped that they're close... but they're not.

Full list of combos after the jump...

Wednesday, October 10, 2018

Season 7, Episode 11 Probabilities - Live Blog

Matchup Ceremony #7, continued

We pick up with Cali's gambit.

7:03: Four beams validate that Cali and Tomas aren't a match, and Cam and Kayla are not a match.

But what we do learn is that Tevin and Kenya are a perfect match. There's no longer any possibility left that fits all of the Matchup Ceremonies and Truth Booths without the two of them as a match. 128 combinations remain.


7:06: Cam is too conservative - didn't want to try new options, just fell for the first girl - and now he's stuck with no info in the game.

7:13: Lewis leads a group pep talk for Moe, who... doesn't want to pursue any women? But now he's up for pursuing Kayla. OK.

7:15: Sam sets up a whole scavenger hunt for Danny. That's cute. First clue is a pair of panties. Third clue is to do pushups and situps. Hilarious! Sam put on some nice lingerie for him at the end of the hunt.

7:18: It's Lauren playing with the Fate Button today. Tevin and Kwasi are up.

7:23: Tomas's Fate Button press yields... Kenya and Morgan. We already know that Tevin and Kenya are a match, so putting them in the Truth Booth is a waste... Morgan and Kwasi are only a 4.7% chance.

7:25: Terrence J is throwing a party.

7:27: Kwasi also feeling Jasmine...

7:28: Cam dancing... by himself. Doesn't seem like any of the girls are feeling him... until, Cali cuts loose and starts dancing with him. Zak is enticed by this and moves in on her... right in front of Morgan! Wow! Morgan absolutely calls him on it.

7:34: Morgan vows not to sit with Zak the rest of the season. There goes the highest probability couple...

7:35: But Kayla and Moe and starting to hit it off...? No, Kayla isn't ready to move on from Cam. It's Week 8! Is Cam and Bria a thing?

7:36: Cali and Danny starting to hang out a bit. Surprise, they're drunk! Lewis comforting Sam. Seems like the drama got ramped up a ton. Sam promises to beat Cali's ass.

7:44: The alcohol is ripping through the house. Kenya is falling apart knowing that Tevin is talking with Jasmine. Cali was right, though - nobody seemed to mind that she was on Tevin's lap.

7:50: A lot of the girls skipped out on the makeup this morning. Kenya is hung over.

7:51: Lewis calls out Andrew for wanting to pursue a "not losing" strategy rather than a winning strategy - putting Kwasi and Morgan in the Truth Booth and saving Tevin and Kenya as blackout prevention. A couple housemates are thinking the same thing.

Truth Booth #8

It's Kenya and Tevin - we already know they're a perfect match, but they'll likely need until the next episode to confirm it.

Wednesday, October 3, 2018

Season 7, Episode 10 Probabilities - Live Blog

Happy October 3!

10:02: We return to Bria asking Lewis if she needs to be more attractive for him. She is out on him.

10:05: Brett is all in on pouring water all over Nutsa.

10:06: Zak bored with stability with Morgan. Wants to start some drama! With Bria???

10:08: Brett and Nutsa hook up in the room with everyone else!

10:12: Lewis falling back on Samantha.

10:15: Fate Button will pick the ladies, and the ladies will get to pick the guys. It's Nutsa and Bria. Clearly we're thinking Nutsa and Brett.

10:16: Bria wants to fuck with everyone and send Zak on the date with Nutsa and take Brett from him. And she does!

10:23: Surprise, Bria picked Zak to go on the date so they could get time together!

10:34: Daniel has had it with everyone!

Truth Booth #7

It's Nutsa and Zak. Apparently Brett convinced everyone to send them in.

No match only removes 36 possibilities - leaving 538 possibilities.


10:40: This might be the least suspenseful Truth Booth. Seems like everyone knew it wasn't a match. Kwasi is bottoming out.

10:42: Brett is now trying to justify it. Kwasi accusing Brett of wanting to stay in the house. Andrew agrees!

10:48: Cali the strategist advocates for repeating every couple except swapping Cam and Tomas. An interesting take, and it could yield either two definite perfect matches (with two fewer lights), either one or two perfect matches (with two fewer lights), or two or no perfect matches (with the same number of lights).

Matchup Ceremony #7
10:52: Everyone else is joining in the strategy.

10:53: Bria looks soooo happy that she kissed Zak. Power move on Morgan.

10:56: Seems like people are not feeling the strategy even though they're going with it. Maria particularly vocal.
  • Brett - Nutsa (repeat from ceremonies 5 and 6)
  • Daniel - Samantha (repeat from ceremonies 3 and 6)
  • Tevin - Kenya (repeat from ceremonies 1, 3, 5, and 6)
  • Andrew - Lauren (repeat from ceremonies 1, 3, and 5)
  • Zak - Morgan (repeat from ceremonies 3, 4, 5, and 6)
  • Lewis - Bria (repeat from ceremony 6)
  • Moe - Jasmine (repeat from ceremonies 1 and 6)
  • Kwasi - Asia (repeat from ceremonies 1 and 6)
  • Cam - Cali
  • Tomas - Kayla
Blackout probabilities:  0%
Instant win possible: No (more than 3 couples repeated from ceremony 1)
Maximum number of lights:  6
Most likely number of lights:  3

And it looks like we'll have to wait for next week to get the beams. Note: No live blog next week.

Here is what happens with each possible number of beams, and the likelihood of each number of beams... it's more likely that they get no new perfect matches than any perfect matches.

256 (10.4%)MatchMatchXXX
3296 (55.0%)28.7%71.3%40.2%XX
4128 (23.8%)XXMatchXX
553 (9.9%)XXMatch54.7%45.3%
65 (0.9%)XXMatchMatchMatch

Wednesday, September 26, 2018

Season 7, Episode 9 Probabilities - Live Blog

We resume with a fight in progress!

10:04: Bria is the one calming Kwasi down!

10:10: Tomas and Cali are happy together, but Lewis and Asia are not.

10:17: Fate Button twist... the guys are picked by the Fate Button but the guys will get to pick the girls. Kayla hits the Fate Button and it's Brett and Moe.

10:18: Moe is stumped as to who he wants to take on the date. The house heckles him too! Moe picks Kayla. Cam interjects saying we should hear Kayla's opinion... and she says, I'm fine with it! Weird that Asia didn't even seem to cross his mind...

10:23: Brett is also super indecisive. But eventually negotiates with Cali.

10:25: It's a boat date! With dolphins!

10:34: Moe struck out big time. Lewis calls him a body!

Truth Booth #6

It's Brett and Cali... and she's getting emotional at the possibility... but they're not a match. There are 1,524 possibilities left.


Matchup Ceremony #6

10:43: Maria and Shamoy looking tan.

10:44: Cam lists off all the attributes he likes about Kayla... and... it could describe pretty much any of the other women in the house. Kwasi is OUT on Kayla.

10:47: The whole house doesn't like that Lewis is ignoring Asia despite sleeping next to each other every night.
  • Lauren - Andrew (repeat from ceremonies 1 and 3)
  • Nutsa - Brett (repeat from ceremony 5)
  • Kayla - Cam (repeat from ceremonies 1, 2, 3, and 5)
  • Bria - Lewis
  • Asia - Kwasi (repeat from ceremony 1)
  • Cali - Tomas (repeat from ceremonies 2, 4, and 5)
  • Morgan - Zak (repeat from ceremonies 3, 4, and 5)
  • Kenya - Tevin (repeat from ceremonies 1, 2, 3, and 5)
  • Samantha - Daniel (repeat from ceremony 3)
  • Jasmine - Moe (repeat from ceremony 1)
Blackout probabilities:  0%
Instant win possible: No (more than 3 couples repeated from ceremony 1)
Maximum number of lights:  7
Most likely number of lights:  4

Looks like there were enough repeats to avoid a blackout. 4 beams brings it down to 574 combinations remaining. We get our first inferred no match - Kayla and Brett. OK.


11:00: Lewis drops the bombshell - he doesn't find Asia attractive! She does not take it well.

Wednesday, September 19, 2018

Season 7, Episodes 7 & 8 Probabilities - Live Blog

Another double episode tonight.

10:09: Lauren getting her first bit of substantial screen time, with Andrew, who immediately compares her... to his mom.

10:19: Some of the new couples are Cam and Cali, Nutsa and Brett. The producers seem to have gotten used to using Lewis for talking heads, but always about others and never himself.

10:20: Kayla is very sad now.

10:30: Samantha does the Fate Button, which brings up Zak and Daniel.

10:34: Asia and Bria get picked by the Fate Button... pretty much everyone wants to send Bria and Zak to the Truth Booth, right?

10:38: Kwasi starts working on Kayla...

10:42: Daniel and Samantha sneak off to the Boom Boom Room.

10:47: Even Daniel knows that he and Asia are the side show on this date.

10:51: Zak and Bria try to reconnect... in case they are a match... and Bria continues to shit-talk Morgan.

Truth Booth #5

11:01: Zak and Bria, of course.

11:07: No match. Zak is pretending to be caught off guard. Bria is crushed. 11,562 possibilities remaining.


11:09: A lot of the guys are laughing at Bria but they either gotta get with Bria or not get the $1M prize.

11:11: Bria starts coming after Kwasi. Cali commiserating with Morgan about Bria's "love" ... but isn't it more obsession? Zak in disbelief that he was voted into the Truth Booth... really dude?

11:14: The house is steaming... Morgan getting ready to get drunk. Asia and Kenya teaming up against Nutsa.

11:21: Moe checks in on Asia! Are they a match???

11:30: Blah blah blah more Bria and Zak drama resulting in Morgan and Zak in the boom boom room.

11:32: Cali and Tomas, who's gotten very little screen time this season.

Matchup Ceremony #5

11:41: Jasmine scolds Asia for being mad at Nutsa, when Nutsa is trying to find new matches and Asia is just trying the same old thing.

11:47: Cam gets to pick his girl before Kwasi does, so Kayla goes with him. He seems caught off guard by
  • Tevin - Kenya (repeat from ceremonies 1, 2, and 3)
  • Tomas - Cali (repeat from ceremonies 2 and 4)
  • Lewis - Lauren
  • Moe - Asia
  • Brett - Nutsa
  • Zak - Morgan (repeat from ceremonies 3 and 4)
  • Cam - Kayla (repeat from ceremonies 1, 2, and 3)
  • Kwasi - Jasmine (repeat from ceremony 3)
  • Andrew - Samantha
  • Daniel - Bria
Blackout probabilities:  8.5% (985 of 11,562)
Instant win possible: No (more than 3 couples repeated from ceremony 2)
Maximum number of lights:  7
Most likely number of lights:  2

11:51: 4 beams! That means 1,696 combinations are left.

11:52: House is feeling good... the buzz seems to be going. They decide to play flip cup. Lewis pushes Tomas and Cali to the boom boom room.

11:53: Oh nooo... performance anxiety for Tomas.

12:00: Cam being super manipulative with Kayla and can't seem to find another girl. Really, really insecure right now.

12:03: Looks like Kwasi getting wound up about Cam... and he goes in for the shove!

The rest of the season preview shows a more aggressive house than we're used to. Kenya and Tevin go to the Truth Booth... we get to 10 matchup ceremonies (which means they're looking for a long season with only 5 matchup ceremonies in 8 episodes)... and Maria and Shamoy get disrupted a bit???