Wednesday, March 22, 2017

Second Chances Open Thread

Not sure yet if Are You The One? Second Chances will have any interesting math, but I want to leave this open for the AYTO? Math community to comment on the new show. If there's any math, I'll take it on here!

9:55: Looks like The Choice is a modified Prisoner's Dilemma.

Wednesday, March 15, 2017

Season 5, Episode 10 Probabilities - Live Blog - The Matches Are In!

9:01: Season finale!

As a quick reminder, here are your perfect matches so far:
  • Kam - Eddie (Week 5 truth booth)
  • Carolina - Hayden (Week 8 truth booth)
  • Alicia - Mike (Week 8 matchup ceremony)
  • Gianna - Ozzy (Week 8 matchup ceremony)
  • Kari - Michael (Week 8 matchup ceremony)
  • Kathryn - Andre (Week 9 matchup ceremony)
  • Taylor - Osvaldo (Week 9 matchup ceremony)
  • Tyranny - Jaylan (Week 9 matchup ceremony)

We're hoping one of these six couples go to the Truth Booth:
  • Casandra - Derrick
  • Casandra - Tyler
  • Hannah - Tyler
  • Hannah - Joey
  • Shannon - Joey
  • Shannon - Derrick

9:03: Derrick also shares with us that he knows this exact information. So that means they've managed to figure out the same information as running the possibilities through a computer program. Could you have figured that all out without this blog? (I couldn't - but it's definitely possible!) If they send one of those couples to the Truth Booth, they know the answer. It seems really likely that this house will pull off a win.

9:06: Kathryn and Ozzy going at it. Even though they know their perfect matches are someone else.

9:10: Good to see some people questioning how they got to the conclusion. Wish they would have shown us a fast-forward version of them trying to figure it out!

Truth Booth

9:16: It's Joey and Casandra going to the Truth Booth, and Derrick and Tyranny going on the date but ineligible for the truth booth. So with the house knowing what we know... they have a 50-50 shot at it.

9:25: They have to be hoping for a trade at this point.

9:28: Trade offer is out! Derrick pushing the team to take the offer.

9:29: What we can infer from what's been shown... Derrick has come to the right conclusion somehow, but hasn't done a good enough job showing his work to the rest of the group, especially the women.

9:32: Trade accepted! The prize goes up another $150,000 to $800,000.

Matchup Ceremony

9:39: Why is Michael so sweaty?

9:41: Ryan skeptical about Mike and Alicia. Mike sounds like a cover letter when he's talking about Alicia.

9:48: Kathryn thinks Andre is her perfect match... because of the way he treats Taylor? Not a lot of faith in the process. The team is dedicated to the numbers.
  • Michael - Kari (inferred perfect match, repeat from episodes 4, 5, 6, and 9)
  • Ozzy - Gianna (inferred perfect match, repeat from episodes 1, 3, and 9)
  • Mike - Alicia (inferred perfect match, repeat from episodes 3, 5, 6, and 9)
  • Joey - Hannah (repeat from episode 9)
  • Osvaldo - Taylor (inferred perfect match, repeat from episodes 4, 7, 8, and 9)
  • Jaylan - Tyranny (inferred perfect match, repeat from episodes 4, 7, 8, and 9)
  • Tyler - Casandra
  • Andre - Kathryn (inferred perfect match, repeat from episode 9)
  • Derrick - Shannon (repeat from episode 8)

9:49: It comes down to this. If they're right... 11 beams. If they're wrong, 8 beams.

9:52: Not very lucky for the show to already be going to beams this early...

9:56: And... they LOSE! This house was sacrificed at the altar for the luck of previous seasons. Here are your confirmed perfect matches:
  • Kam - Eddie (Week 5 truth booth)
  • Carolina - Hayden (Week 8 truth booth)
  • Alicia - Mike (Week 8 matchup ceremony)
  • Gianna - Ozzy (Week 8 matchup ceremony)
  • Kari - Michael (Week 8 matchup ceremony)
  • Kathryn - Andre (Week 9 matchup ceremony)
  • Taylor - Osvaldo (Week 9 matchup ceremony)
  • Tyranny - Jaylan (Week 9 matchup ceremony)
  • Casandra - Derrick (Week 10 matchup ceremony)
  • Hannah - Tyler (Week 10 matchup ceremony)
  • Shannon - Joey (Week 10 matchup ceremony)

9:58: Shots being fired all across the stage. Guys mad at each other. Kari and Derrick taking it hard. Great final shot of a devastated Derrick. Let's go to the reunion.

10:00: In case you were curious - the spoilers that leaked earlier in the season turned out to be accurate. With those spoilers, we were able to figure out the perfect matches after week 8.

10:02: Derrick still feels the strategy worked. About half of the house agrees with him.

10:09: Feels like the women's outfits looked better on the island than tonight at the reunion.

10:12: If Shannon had chosen Derrick Week 9... and Hannah picked Joey, Casandra and Tyler - they would have had 8 beams and known the 11 perfect matches.

10:16: Tyranny and Alicia escalating quickly and then exploding.

10:18: Alicia is with Eddie after the season, and Kam is with Gio from a previous season.

10:50: Gianna has an "appreciation ring" from Hayden.

Wednesday, March 8, 2017

Season 5, Episode 9 Probabilities - Live Blog

Lots of action last week - three perfect matches and four combinations left, so make sure you're caught up! (The spoiler track with unconfirmed info from AYTO Second Chances is not incorporated here.)

9:03: Interesting twist - the house does not remember which weeks Hayden sat with Carolina.

9:04: Michael doesn't care about strategy, but Derrick and the others think they've figured out the couple from week 1.

9:06: Casandra wants to be with Joey (not a match), but Derrick thinks Tyler (25%) is her better match.

9:07: The Derrick - Michael fight turns out to be about Kathryn, not strategy. Security steps in!

9:14: Lots of no matches interested in each other: Alicia and Ozzy, Shannon and Tyler...

9:15: Casandra and Tyranny win dates. It's Casandra and Mike (who the house knows is not a match) and Tyranny and Derrick. Both are no matches! The Truth Booth won't help them.

9:19: Hannah thinks she and Joey (25%) might be a perfect match.

9:26: Seems like the next episode might be dead men walking... they might have no clue whatsoever.

Truth Booth

9:28: It's Derrick and Tyranny. Ryan offers the house the $150,000 trade. Of course, this is a great deal! It's the same 4 combinations left either way:
  1. Casandra - Derrick, Hannah - Tyler, Kathryn - Andre, Shannon - Joey, Taylor - Osvaldo, Tyranny - Jaylan
  2. Casandra - Tyler, Hannah - Joey, Kathryn - Andre, Shannon - Derrick, Taylor - Osvaldo, Tyranny - Jaylan
  3. Casandra - Andre, Hannah - Tyler, Kathryn - Jaylan, Shannon - Derrick, Taylor - Osvaldo, Tyranny - Joey
  4. Casandra - Andre, Hannah - Tyler, Kathryn - Osvaldo, Shannon - Derrick, Taylor - Joey, Tyranny - Jaylan
9:29: This seems to be the first time there's been some real debate over the trade.

9:34: The house takes the trade and the prize is up to $650,000. Kathryn is right - people are pretty excited about the $150,000, but it only shows up if they win. Derrick and Tyranny staying together til the end is an easy way not to win anything.

Matchup Ceremony

9:42: Eddie says he would have definitely opposed the trade.

9:44: The couples starting to come together...

9:45: ... nope. Shannon goes rogue and the crowd is SILENT... except for Derrick!

9:52: Derrick mad about the intentional miscommunication, not the choice.
  • Kari - Michael (inferred perfect match, repeat from episodes 4-6)
  • Alicia - Mike (inferred perfect match, repeat from episodes 3, 5, and 6)
  • Ozzy - Gianna (inferred perfect match, repeat from episodes 1 and 3)
  • Tyranny - Jaylan (repeat from episodes 4, 7, and 8)
  • Shannon - Tyler (inferred no match, repeat from episodes 3-7)
  • Hannah - Joey
  • Casandra - Derrick
  • Taylor - Osvaldo (repeat from episodes 4, 7, and 8)
  • Kathryn - Andre
Blackout odds: 0% (0 of 4)
Instant win possible: No
Maximum number of lights: 9
Most likely number of lights: 6

9:59: 6 lights means there are two possibilities left, and 9 lights means there are two possibilities left. We won't know the matches tonight.

10:00: It's 9 beams of light, which means there's a single set of couples that need to switch. Will they know who? Your new perfect matches this week are Kathryn and Andre, Taylor and Osvaldo, and Tyranny and Jaylan.

AndreDerrickEdwardHaydenJaylanJoeyMichaelMikeOsvaldoOzzyTyler
AliciaXXXXXXXMatchXXX
CarolinaXXXMatchXXXXXXX
CasandraX50.0%XXXXXXXX50.0%
GiannaXXXXXXXXXMatchX
HannahXXXXX50.0%XXXX50.0%
KamXXMatchXXXXXXXX
KariXXXXXXMatchXXXX
KathrynMatchXXXXXXXXXX
ShannonX50.0%XXX50.0%XXXXX
TaylorXXXXXXXXMatchXX
TyrannyXXXXMatchXXXXXX

  1. Casandra - Derrick, Hannah - Tyler, Shannon - Joey
  2. Casandra - Tyler, Hannah - Joey, Shannon - Derrick

10:00: We now know that if Shannon had gone with Derrick, as the house had agreed on, and Tyler matched up with Casandra, there was a 50% chance they'd know the right answer.

10:01: Will they figure it out next week? Come back and see. Thank you to the thousands of readers of this blog!!

10:16: The AfterMatch is showing a hookup web and Derrick is OFF the web. He's now claiming that he fooled around with 8 of the 11 women.

Wednesday, March 1, 2017

Season 5, Episode 8 Probabilities - with spinoff assistance - The Matches Are In!

Tonight, MTV confirmed that there will be a spinoff called Are You The One: Second Chances. There are reports (original) that six of this season's cast members will be in that spinoff. The commercial tonight showed that two of those cast members are together as a perfect match!

See the original episode 8 post if you do not want to be spoiled by this info. (I will go back and add in prior episode information later.)

Season 5, Episode 8 Probabilities - Live Blog

9:07: The challenge this week is ex-boyfriends showing up. It's like a bizarro house.

9:10: Gianna calling Carolina out? Really?

9:12: Michael was totally right - the more good looking guys were the fake exes. And one of the guys is a miniature Ozzy!

9:13: Hayden is going on the date, and he'll be joined by one of Michael, Jaylan, Derrick, and Ozzy.

9:17: Hayden brings Carolina (6.0%), and Michael brings Kathryn (inferred no match).

9:19: Joey sets up a Froot Loops date with Casandra.

9:22: Gianna sooo mad at Carolina. Can't handle it!

9:24: SPOILER ALERT! AYTO Second Chances showing off one of the perfect matches from this season.

Truth Booth

9:31: It's Hayden and Carolina to the Truth Booth.

9:35: PERFECT MATCH! As spoiled ten minutes ago in a commercial for AYTO Second Chances. 46 possibilities left.

AndreDerrickEdwardHaydenJaylanJoeyMichaelMikeOsvaldoOzzyTyler
AliciaXXXX23.9%8.7%X32.6%23.9%X10.9%
CarolinaXXXMatchXXXXXXX
Casandra50.0%30.4%XXX4.3%4.3%X4.3%X6.5%
GiannaX10.9%XX4.3%2.2%XXX82.6%X
HannahX6.5%XXX17.4%X23.9%28.3%X23.9%
KamXXMatchXXXXXXXX
KariXXXX4.3%X89.1%2.2%X4.3%X
Kathryn21.7%XXX10.9%43.5%X4.3%10.9%X8.7%
Shannon15.2%17.4%XX8.7%6.5%2.2%4.3%4.3%6.5%34.8%
TaylorX34.8%XX4.3%6.5%X8.7%28.3%2.2%15.2%
Tyranny13.0%XXX43.5%10.9%4.3%23.9%X4.3%X

9:36: Alicia happy... but others getting salty.

9:42: The Honeymoon Suite is pretty nice. How many Honeymoon Suites do they roll out every season? Can't be more than 4...

Matchup Ceremony

9:47: Ryan Devlin dropping F Bombs!!
  • Derrick - Shannon
  • Mike - Kari
  • Andre - Gianna (inferred no match)
  • Tyler - Hannah
  • Osvaldo - Taylor (repeat from episodes 4 and 7)
  • Ozzy - Alicia (repeat from episode 7)
  • Jaylan - Tyranny (repeat from episodes 4 and 7)
  • Joey - Casandra
  • Michael - Kathryn (inferred no match)
Blackout odds: 26.0% (12 of 46)
Instant win possible: No
Maximum number of lights: 8
Most likely number of lights: 4

9:58: 5 beams means just 4 possibilities remain... but we have THREE inferred perfect matches: Alicia and Mike, Gianna and Ozzy, Kari and Michael!

AndreDerrickEdwardHaydenJaylanJoeyMichaelMikeOsvaldoOzzyTyler
AliciaXXXXXXXMatchXXX
CarolinaXXXMatchXXXXXXX
Casandra50.0%25.0%XXXXXXXX25.0%
GiannaXXXXXXXXXMatchX
HannahXXXXX25.0%XXXX75.0%
KamXXMatchXXXXXXXX
KariXXXXXXMatchXXXX
Kathryn50.0%XXX25.0%XXX25.0%XX
ShannonX75.0%XXX25.0%XXXXX
TaylorXXXXX25.0%XX75.0%XX
TyrannyXXXX75.0%25.0%XXXXX
  1. Casandra - Derrick, Hannah - Tyler, Kathryn - Andre, Shannon - Joey, Taylor - Osvaldo, Tyranny - Jaylan
  2. Casandra - Tyler, Hannah - Joey, Kathryn - Andre, Shannon - Derrick, Taylor - Osvaldo, Tyranny - Jaylan
  3. Casandra - Andre, Hannah - Tyler, Kathryn - Jaylan, Shannon - Derrick, Taylor - Osvaldo, Tyranny - Joey
  4. Casandra - Andre, Hannah - Tyler, Kathryn - Osvaldo, Shannon - Derrick, Taylor - Joey, Tyranny - Jaylan

10:01: Casting information about the AYTO spinoff has revealed the perfect matches for this season - check it out in my other blog post here.

Wednesday, February 22, 2017

Season 5, Episode 7 Probabilities - with spinoff assistance

There are reports (original) that an Are You The One? spinoff is occurring with six of this season's cast members. I have not seen any official indication from MTV about this show or these cast members being together. This post will keep track of known combinations given the assumption that there are three pairs of perfect matches within those six contestants. These possible perfect matches are still possible through episode 7.

See the original episode 7 post if you do not want to be spoiled by this info. (I will go back and add in prior episode information later.)

Season 5, Episode 7 Probabilities

No live blog tonight.

Truth Booth

Andre and Taylor went into the Truth Booth. We've known since Episode 5 that they weren't a perfect match. No progress!

They were offered the Truth Booth trade, but declined it. Obviously, it would have been a better deal to take the trade.

Matchup Ceremony
  • Casandra - Andre (repeat from episode 4)
  • Alicia - Ozzy
  • Shannon - Tyler (repeat from episodes 3-6)
  • Taylor - Osvaldo (repeat from episode 4)
  • Kari - Derrick
  • Kathryn - Joey (repeat from episodes 3-6)
  • Tyranny - Jaylan (repeat from episode 4)
  • Hannah - Michael (repeat from episode 1)
  • Gianna - Mike
  • Carolina - Hayden (repeat from episodes 3-6)
Blackout odds: 0% (0 of 165)
Instant win possible: No, repeated more than 4 couples from episode 4
Maximum number of lights: 8
Most likely number of lights: 4

4 beams means 84 combinations remain.

AndreDerrickEdwardHaydenJaylanJoeyMichaelMikeOsvaldoOzzyTyler
AliciaXXX6.0%22.6%4.8%X40.5%20.2%X6.0%
Carolina10.7%16.7%X54.8%7.1%XX2.4%4.8%X3.6%
Casandra52.4%26.2%X6.0%X3.6%2.4%X3.6%X6.0%
GiannaX6.0%XX3.6%1.2%XXX86.9%2.4%
HannahX7.1%X15.5%X14.3%X22.6%22.6%X17.9%
KamXXMatchXXXXXXXX
KariXXXX2.4%X94.0%1.2%X2.4%X
Kathryn14.3%XX3.6%8.3%59.5%X2.4%7.1%X4.8%
Shannon11.9%13.1%X3.6%6.0%3.6%1.2%2.4%3.6%3.6%51.2%
TaylorX31.0%XX6.0%6.0%X8.3%38.1%2.4%8.3%
Tyranny10.7%XX10.7%44.0%7.1%2.4%20.2%X4.8%X


Read more for all 84 possibilities...