Wednesday, February 1, 2023

Season 9, Episode 4 Probabilities

Truth Booth #3

It's Will and Taylor in the Truth Booth. No match!

AqelBrendanClayEduardoHamudiLeoMikeyNathanOllieSamuelWill
Anissa21.5%9.3%9.3%9.3%X9.3%9.3%10.6%X9.3%12.2%
Brooke8.3%8.4%8.4%8.4%9.7%X8.4%9.6%19.3%8.4%11.0%
CC8.3%X19.1%8.5%9.7%8.4%8.5%9.6%8.5%8.4%11.0%
CourtneyX8.4%8.4%8.4%9.7%19.1%8.4%9.6%8.5%8.4%11.0%
Danielle8.3%8.5%8.5%19.1%9.7%8.5%X9.6%8.5%8.4%11.0%
Dew8.3%8.5%X8.5%9.7%8.4%8.5%9.6%8.5%19.1%11.0%
Jordanne8.5%19.4%8.7%8.7%10.0%8.7%8.7%9.9%8.8%8.7%X
Julia Ruth8.1%8.3%8.3%8.3%9.5%8.3%8.3%21.9%8.3%X10.9%
Mijntje8.2%8.3%8.3%8.3%22.4%8.3%8.3%X8.4%8.3%10.9%
Roz8.3%8.5%8.5%X9.7%8.5%19.1%9.6%8.5%8.4%11.0%
Taylor12.3%12.5%12.5%12.5%X12.5%12.5%X12.6%12.5%X

1,959,300 possibilities remain.

Matchup Ceremony #3
  • Samuel - Roz
  • Aqel - Anissa (repeat from ceremony 2)
  • Ollie - Brooke (repeat from ceremony 2)
  • Will - Courtney
  • Leo - Taylor
  • Clay - CC (repeat from ceremony 2)
  • Mikey - Mijntje
  • Eduardo - Jordanne
  • Hamudi - Danielle
  • Brendan - Julia Ruth
  • Nathan - Dew

Blackout probability: 24.6% (481,536 of 1,959,300)
Instant win possible: No, repeated more than 2 couples from ceremony 2
Maximum number of lights: 9
Most likely number of lights: 1

A surprising 4 beams means only 68,042 combinations left.

AqelBrendanClayEduardoHamudiLeoMikeyNathanOllieSamuelWill
Anissa49.0%6.5%4.4%6.6%X5.6%6.6%7.4%X6.7%7.3%
Brooke3.9%6.3%4.5%6.4%6.9%X6.4%7.2%44.8%6.4%7.2%
CC4.1%X44.9%6.5%7.0%5.6%6.5%7.1%4.3%6.6%7.4%
CourtneyX7.3%5.8%7.5%8.1%8.1%7.4%8.4%5.7%7.4%34.3%
Danielle5.7%7.7%6.4%8.3%33.5%6.9%X8.8%6.2%7.9%8.6%
Dew5.6%7.6%X7.6%8.3%6.7%7.7%33.6%5.9%8.5%8.4%
Jordanne6.0%8.9%6.6%30.8%8.9%7.1%8.2%9.0%6.4%8.1%X
Julia Ruth6.0%29.7%6.4%8.5%9.0%7.3%8.3%9.4%6.4%X9.0%
Mijntje6.1%8.1%6.6%8.3%9.4%7.3%30.5%X6.4%8.4%8.9%
Roz6.0%8.1%6.5%X8.8%7.1%8.7%9.2%6.4%30.4%8.9%
Taylor7.4%9.5%8.0%9.7%X38.6%9.7%X7.6%9.6%X

1 comment:

  1. Even though the 3 couples that repeat from the previous matchup have high perfect match probabilitiy, at least one of them is 100% a no match. They should probably try and send at least one of them to the truth booth, just to get it out of the way lol

    ReplyDelete