Wednesday, November 18, 2015

Season 3 Finale (Episodes 9 and 10) Probabilities - Live Blog

10:00: Let's go!

10:04: Bad matchup as we know Mike is a match with neither Kayla nor Amanda.

10:05: Attempting to fix the getaway competition is the best thing they've done so far this season.

10:07: Uh oh...

10:08: Zak-Hannah (26.1%), Hunter-Britni (34.8%), and Austin-Kayla (30.4%) are our couples advancing to the getaway challenge. Honestly, not a bad choice. All those couples are fairly high probability. Not as good as Alec and Stacey.

10:20: This got crazy quick.

Truth Booth

10:45: Hunter and Britni go into the Truth Booth... and no match. That leaves 15 combinations.


  1. Amanda - Hunter, Britni - Nelson, Cheyenne - Chuck, Hannah - Mike, Kayla - Austin, Kiki - Tyler, Melanie - Zak, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Alec
  2. Amanda - Chuck, Britni - Devin, Cheyenne - Zak, Hannah - Hunter, Kayla - Austin, Kiki - Tyler, Melanie - Nelson, Rashida - Mike, Stacey - Alec
  3. Amanda - Nelson, Britni - Devin, Cheyenne - Austin, Hannah - Zak, Kayla - Hunter, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Tyler, Rashida - Chuck, Stacey - Alec
  4. Amanda - Devin, Britni - Nelson, Cheyenne - Austin, Hannah - Zak, Kayla - Hunter, Kiki - Tyler, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Mike, Stacey - Alec
  5. Amanda - Nelson, Britni - Tyler, Cheyenne - Austin, Hannah - Zak, Kayla - Devin, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Hunter, Stacey - Alec
  6. Amanda - Zak, Britni - Nelson, Cheyenne - Mike, Hannah - Hunter, Kayla - Austin, Kiki - Tyler, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Alec
  7. Amanda - Zak, Britni - Nelson, Cheyenne - Hunter, Hannah - Mike, Kayla - Austin, Kiki - Tyler, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Alec
  8. Amanda - Nelson, Britni - Tyler, Cheyenne - Zak, Hannah - Hunter, Kayla - Austin, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Alec
  9. Amanda - Hunter, Britni - Austin, Cheyenne - Zak, Hannah - Nelson, Kayla - Tyler, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Alec
  10. Amanda - Austin, Britni - Devin, Cheyenne - Tyler, Hannah - Nelson, Kayla - Zak, Kiki - Alec, Melanie - Mike, Rashida - Hunter, Stacey - Chuck
  11. Amanda - Chuck, Britni - Devin, Cheyenne - Tyler, Hannah - Hunter, Kayla - Zak, Kiki - Alec, Melanie - Nelson, Rashida - Mike, Stacey - Austin
  12. Amanda - Nelson, Britni - Alec, Cheyenne - Tyler, Hannah - Hunter, Kayla - Zak, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Austin
  13. Amanda - Hunter, Britni - Nelson, Cheyenne - Tyler, Hannah - Mike, Kayla - Zak, Kiki - Alec, Melanie - Austin, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Chuck
  14. Amanda - Hunter, Britni - Nelson, Cheyenne - Tyler, Hannah - Alec, Kayla - Zak, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Austin, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Chuck
  15. Amanda - Alec, Britni - Austin, Cheyenne - Tyler, Hannah - Hunter, Kayla - Zak, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Nelson
10:45: Not totally clear to me what Devin means with all of the cups. Seems like at some times he's counting Chelsey and Connor and sometimes she's not.

10:55: If they win, it will be the biggest comeback ever... but, also, probably rigged? Would be very surprising.

Matchup Ceremony
  • Kayla - Hunter
  • Cheyenne - Austin (repeat from episode 6)
  • Stacey - Alec (repeat from episodes 1, 3, 5, 6, and 8)
  • Britni - Devin
  • Hannah - Zak (repeat from episodes 3, 7, 8)
  • Melanie - Tyler
  • Kiki - Mike
  • Amanda - Nelson
  • Rashida - Chuck
There's a 1 in 15 (6.7%) chance that they blackout here - and an equal 6.7% chance that they win the game here. This is the same as combo 3 above and combo 5 from last week. Like last week - a blackout would tell them the exact correct combination.

Wow... only 2 correct. Worst possible combination as it leaves 7 potential possibilities.


  1. Amanda - Hunter, Britni - Nelson, Cheyenne - Chuck, Hannah - Mike, Kayla - Austin, Kiki - Tyler, Melanie - Zak, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Alec
  2. Amanda - Zak, Britni - Nelson, Cheyenne - Mike, Hannah - Hunter, Kayla - Austin, Kiki - Tyler, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Alec
  3. Amanda - Zak, Britni - Nelson, Cheyenne - Hunter, Hannah - Mike, Kayla - Austin, Kiki - Tyler, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Alec
  4. Amanda - Austin, Britni - Devin, Cheyenne - Tyler, Hannah - Nelson, Kayla - Zak, Kiki - Alec, Melanie - Mike, Rashida - Hunter, Stacey - Chuck
  5. Amanda - Chuck, Britni - Devin, Cheyenne - Tyler, Hannah - Hunter, Kayla - Zak, Kiki - Alec, Melanie - Nelson, Rashida - Mike, Stacey - Austin
  6. Amanda - Hunter, Britni - Nelson, Cheyenne - Tyler, Hannah - Alec, Kayla - Zak, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Austin, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Chuck
  7. Amanda - Alec, Britni - Austin, Cheyenne - Tyler, Hannah - Hunter, Kayla - Zak, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Nelson

How can you guess here???? You HAVE to repeat one couple from this week... but which one? You've got an 88% chance of getting it wrong on the first guess!

Notable confirmed non-match here is Zak and Hannah.

11:02: Dude on dude violence is OK?

11:03: Devin can be the funniest. And he at least seems open to criticism.

11:05: If they pick any of the couples with 14.3% or 71.4% chance, we'll have a chance to know the exact combination going into the Matchup Ceremony. If they don't, it's a guaranteed gamble.

11:08: Melanie and Rashida offered Chuck a threesome?

11:09: Zak-Kayla is the second-most-likely to be a perfect match in the truth booth (57.1%). Devin-Rashida (71.4%), and Hannah-Nelson (14.3%) make the challenge. But wait - Melanie-Tyler (confirmed no match) bump out Hannah and Nelson.

Devin and Rashida are the best possible couple to choose for the Truth Booth. Get it right and it's a match - get it wrong and they know the perfect 10.

11:25: Confirmed that we will NOT know the correct combination going into the Matchup Ceremony.

Will MTV tell us who the perfect matches are if they don't get it right?

Poll Maker

Truth Booth

It's Zak and Kayla. No match here tells us a lot: Kayla's match is Austin, Rashida's match is Devin, and Stacey's match is Alec, Kiki-Tyler, and Britni-Nelson. Perfect match means Cheyenne and Tyler are also a perfect match.

Perfect match!
  1. Amanda - Austin, Britni - Devin, Hannah - Nelson, Kiki - Alec, Melanie - Mike, Rashida - Hunter, Stacey - Chuck
  2. Amanda - Chuck, Britni - Devin, Hannah - Hunter, Kiki - Alec, Melanie - Nelson, Rashida - Mike, Stacey - Austin
  3. Amanda - Hunter, Britni - Nelson, Hannah - Alec, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Austin, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Chuck
  4. Amanda - Alec, Britni - Austin, Hannah - Hunter, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Nelson
Notable here - Alec and Stacey are NOT a perfect match.

What's the winning combination?

Amanda - Austin, Britni - Devin, Hannah - Nelson, Kiki - Alec, Melanie - Mike, Rashida - Hunter, Stacey - Chuck
Amanda - Chuck, Britni - Devin, Hannah - Hunter, Kiki - Alec, Melanie - Nelson, Rashida - Mike, Stacey - Austin
Amanda - Hunter, Britni - Nelson, Hannah - Alec, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Austin, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Chuck
Amanda - Alec, Britni - Austin, Hannah - Hunter, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Nelson
Poll Maker

11:33: They're on the right track with Tyler and Cheyenne, but Alec and Amanda is only a 25% chance of being right.

11:34: Slow motion coin flip.

If they win here... do you think the show is rigged?

Quiz Maker

5 beams means they win.

Matchup Ceremony
  • Austin - Britni
  • Hunter - Hannah
  • Devin - Rashida (repeat from episodes 3, 6, and 8)
  • Tyler - Cheyenne (confirmed perfect match, repeat from episodes 3, 7, and 8)
  • Alec - Amanda (repeat from episode 4)
  • Nelson - Stacey
  • Chuck - Melanie (repeat from episode 7)
  • Mike - Kiki (repeat from episode 9)

As you can tell... this is a potentially winning combination, the same as #4 above. They copied exactly one match from the earlier episode, as they needed.

Final result of Are You The One? Season 3

$750,000 win!
Go home with nothing!
Poll Maker
5 beams means they win.

Good night all, and thanks for tuning in.

Wednesday, November 11, 2015

Season 3, Episode 8 Probabilities - Live Blog

10:02: Not sure why this episode is called "Sorry Dad."

10:06: This dude is not 45 but of course compared to these people...

10:07: WTF Devin arm strength.

10:16: Our couples are... Hunter - Amanda (12.3%), Nelson - Kiki (30.8%), Austin - Kayla (23.1%). Hunter passes on his top 3 potential matches. Nelson and Austin pick the best available. (edit: sorry, I picked the wrong numbers at first!)

10:29: This is the worst-case scenario for sending the same couple over and over again into the truth booth... Nelson and Kiki going in.

Truth Booth

No match between Nelson and Kiki. He's devastated, she's not. 45 combinations remaining.


They're going to have to be careful in the matchup ceremony because Kiki has to be picked by one of the three guys here.

10:36: Good that Alec is staying focused on Stacey. They're the most likely couple left.

10:42: Seems ominous that they keep mentioning that Kiki only has three possibilities...

10:45: Alec and Mike passing on Kiki force Tyler's hand... Tyler picking someone else is bad for them because it caps their number of possible correct matches at 8, but it's not the end of the world for him to pick someone else.

Matchup Ceremony
  • Mike - Melanie (repeat from episode 6)
  • Hunter - Britni (repeat from episodes 1, 3, 6)
  • Alec - Stacey (repeat from episodes 1, 3, 5, 6)
  • Tyler - Cheyenne (repeat from episodes 3, 7)
  • Chuck - Amanda (repeat from episode 6)
  • Devin - Rashida (repeat from episodes 3, 6)
  • Zak - Hannah (repeat from episodes 3, 7)
  • Nelson - Kayla
  • Austin - Kiki (confirmed no match)
Odds of blackout are 1 out of 45: 0.2%. BUT... in a twist, if they get a blackout here, we'll actually know the exact set of perfect matches. There's only one possibility with 1 light on.

They get 3 lights, which actually was the worst outcome in terms of eliminating options. There are 23 combinations left, with some inferred non-matches.


The 23 possibilities left after the jump... pick a number and vote in the comments!

Wednesday, November 4, 2015

Season 3, Episode 7 Probabilities - Live Blog

10:13: Alec-Melanie (6.5%) and Hunter-Rashida (11.6%) win the challenge!

10:16: Kayla-Mike (12.7%) flirting. Amanda jealous.

10:17: Amanda going crazy. Nelson having none of it.

10:23: Lots of girls getting spun around. Looks like fun.

10:24: Not sure the spin around really works. It all depends on which direction he goes.

Truth Booth

Alec-Melanie: a perfect match would bring it down to 18 combinations left.

No match! 257 combinations remain.


Alec-Stacey are definitely still in play.

10:34: "Chuck is definitely the fantasy in my head..." says Cheyenne, after revealing that she worked at Chuck E. Cheese a lot.

10:35: The speed dating seems to be working pretty well. Except for Crazy Kiki coming back. The frustrating part is that they keep going with new, low-probability couples instead of testing some of the results they've seen in the past.

10:38: Devin definitely playing it.

I think the safest strategy on the island would end up being to always choose couples from the most successful matchup ceremony for the truth booth.

10:44: Chelsey and Connor are definitely enjoying themselves. They probably are the only ones...

10:46: Rashida starting it off by picking Alec. From a math standpoint, this is one of the worst possible choices - picking the second-lowest combination on the board and removing the second-highest combination off the board.

Matchup Ceremony
  • Rashida - Alec
  • Kiki - Nelson (repeat from episode 6)
  • Amanda - Hunter
  • Britni - Devin
  • Melanie - Chuck
  • Hannah - Zak (repeat from episode 3)
  • Stacey - Mike
  • Kayla - Austin
  • Cheyenne - Tyler (repeat from episode 3)

DANGEROUSLY high odds of a blackout here - 74 of 257 (28.7%) of the possibilities are a blackout! The highest number of matches they can have here is 6.

3 perfect matches leaves 65 combinations.


The remaining 65 possibilities listed after the jump...

Wednesday, October 28, 2015

Season 3, Episode 6 Probabilities

I won't be around for tonight's episode, so probabilities will come later in the week. If you post the truth booth and matchup ceremony results in the comments, I can get to posting here faster. Thanks!

Update: Thank you for being patient and for helping out!

The Truth Booth revealed that Chuck and Kiki were no match and 708 combinations remain.


Matchup Ceremony
  • Chuck - Amanda
  • Tyler - Hannah
  • Zak - Kayla (repeat from episodes 1 and 5)
  • Austin - Cheyenne
  • Hunter - Britni (repeat from episodes 1 and 3)
  • Alec - Stacey (repeat from episodes 1, 3, and 5)
  • Nelson - Kiki
  • Devin - Rashida (repeat from episode 3)
  • Mike - Melanie
In the matchup ceremony, the pairings selected guaranteed no blackout, because they repeated Zak-Kayla, Hunter-Britni, and Alec-Stacey (1 of whom is a match). It also guaranteed a non-winning combination for the same reason. The number of possible lights ranged from 2 to 7.

The ceremony's 3 perfect matches brought the number of possible combinations down to 275.


I don't think they're moving quickly enough.

Wednesday, October 21, 2015

Season 3, Episode 5 Probabilities - Live Blog

10:06: Gross challenge. Not excited about this.

10:07: OK, thought they would have to eat the squid.

10:10: OK, I was right.

10:11: Chelsey wins!

10:16: Chelsey goes with Connor and Rashida gets Nelson! Who doesn't like the fish chum all that much. Chelsey-Connor (53.8%) is the obvious pick. Rashida-Nelson (11.4%) is a distant second, but it's better than other options they've had so far.

10:18: Damn, that is a LOT of hair.

10:27: Why are there no sheets on these beds??

Truth Booth

Chelsey and Connor are a perfect match! 2,613 combinations remain.


This confirms that one of Britni-Hunter, Kayla-Zak, and Stacey-Alec are a match.

10:35: Wow, Nelson went from chill to crazy in a matter of minutes. Chuck is hilarious.

10:37: They're having fun watching out the window.

10:42: I like the men and women coordinating their outfits. Great idea.

10:43: 5 weeks in the honeymoon suite can't be too bad.

10:44: Melanie with an early disruptive pick, taking the most likely couple off of the board.

10:51: Alec hasn't reciprocated Stacey's pick despite the fact that they're the second-most likely couple.

10:55: So no additional lights still means a blackout? Interesting angle. That means a blackout is far more likely than my earlier logic, which assumed a truth booth perfect match eliminated blackouts. (UPDATE: See the new logic.)

Matchup Ceremony
  • Melanie - Hunter
  • Britni - Mike
  • Stacey - Alec (repeat from episodes 1 and 3)
  • Kayla - Zak (repeat from episode 1)
  • Rashida - Nelson
  • Cheyenne - Devin
  • Hannah - Austin
  • Kiki - Chuck (repeat from episodes 3 and 4)
  • Amanda - Tyler
Under these conditions, the chances of a blackout are 654 out of 2,613 (25%). This combination is not a winning combination, as it was eliminated in a previous episode. It's 2 perfect matches - the worst possible result, as it still leaves 818 combinations. They're actually worse off than the far harder season 2. We have our first inferred non-match, as Melanie and Hunter are not a couple. (UPDATE: This is an easier explanation than most inferred matches/non-matches, see below.)


(Programming note: No live blog next week, and the matchup post may be delayed.)

Wednesday, October 14, 2015

Season 3, Episode 4 Probabilities - Live Blog

10:02: Alec is technically right, if they accrue an extra light each week, they'll get 10 lights during week 10.

10:06: Melanie's boob just hanging out.

10:07: OK, more boobs from Britni.

10:09: "Cutting tension with scissors" isn't exactly the quote.

10:09: This is one of the funniest looking challenges yet.

10:15: Cheyenne / Zak (12.5%) and Britni / Chuck (5.1%) aren't great choices for the competition. Smart of Connor to go for Chelsey but it didn't make it.

10:15: WTF is a manta ray?

10:30: Hannah is awfully confident about Chuck leaving the house even though there's a 95% chance he sticks around.

10:40: No match between Chuck and Britni! 13,410 combinations remain. This is one of the worst truth booth picks in the history of this show, by the way.


10:44: This is the earliest they've done the matchup ceremony in a while, so something is up.

10:46: Nelson really mad that Cheyenne was taken from him.

10:48: Devin says fuck the math!

10:50: Rashida should be mad here, Devin is her highest-probability match.

10:56: Tyler wants an in with Rashida.

10:58: Connor wants nothing to do with Kayla.

Matchup Ceremony
  • Alec - Amanda
  • Tyler - Melanie
  • Zak - Cheyenne
  • Chuck - Kiki (repeat from episode 3)
  • Devin - Hannah
  • Mike - Kayla (repeat from episode 3)
  • Connor - Chelsey (repeat from episodes 1, 3)
  • Nelson - Britni
  • Hunter - Rashida
  • Austin - Stacey

The chances of a blackout with this specific combination is 18% (2,406 of 13,410). This combination was previously ruled out as a game-winning combination.

2 right means 3,702 combinations remain.


This is the worst performance of any season so far. They're almost as far away from succeeding as season 2, which was much harder with the 11th girl. They really don't know what's going on.

Wednesday, October 7, 2015

Season 3, Episode 3 Probabilities - Live Blog

If you're curious about the chances of a blackout happening, as happened last week, see this post: "What are the odds of a blackout?"

10:04: Oh, she's not wearing a bra.

10:06: OK, Devin has a pretty good point. They all jumped on him for hooking up with a confirmed no match, and now all the couples have to deal with being confirmed non-matches.

10:08: Why wouldn't the smartest guy just stand next to a pole with a tire and let the other guys do the running?

10:09: Wait... if there are only 60 tires, a guy can't stack up his own name 6 times anyway. So the guys who are carrying over their own tires to the poles are doing it wrong.


Some relatively weak couples here. Chuck-Amanda (13.3%) is the best choice, with Zak-Kiki (9.6%), and Mike-Britni (6.8%) behind.

10:25: Helicoptering. Bold move.

10:27: Wow, 6 figures at age 22? I guess he's a pretty credible nerd.

10:28: Nerds everywhere!!

10:29: Did Zak just raise the price of prescription drugs 5,000%?

Truth Booth

No match between Zak and Kiki! 57,160 combinations remaining.


It's not always a great strategy to keep going down the line, sending the same person into the truth booth repeatedly. You only have a limited number of guesses, so trying to solve one person can be a rabbit hole. In general, the highest probability guess is usually the best one.

10:36: It's hard enough for me to tell the difference between these people at the start of a season, but adding glasses makes it twice as hard.

10:37: Stage 5 clinger.

10:39: These Sour Patch Kid commercials are awful. (But effective?)

10:42: The team can guarantee no blackout by putting forth the 4 people who were matched up in the first episode but not in the second. It's a pretty low-risk strategy.

10:45: Ryan is getting really unusually involved here! SHOTS FIRED

10:52: Devin unleashing the truth!

Matchup Ceremony
  • Chelsey - Connor (repeat from Episode 1)
  • Kiki - Chuck
  • Amanda - Austin
  • Rashida - Devin
  • Cheyenne - Tyler
  • Melanie - Nelson
  • Hannah - Zak
  • Kayla - Mike
  • Stacey - Alec (repeat from episode 1)
  • Britni - Hunter (repeat from episode 1)
Guaranteed not to be a blackout since they repeated 3 of the 4 pairs from episode 1 - they know at least one of these is still a match. Also guaranteed not to be a winning combination. Getting 1 or 2 correct here is probably much more useful than getting 3, 4, 5, or 6 right.

3 correct means 14,129 combinations remain.


Season 3 - What are the odds of a blackout?

Are You The One? Season 3's twist is that if the matchup ceremony results in 0 perfect matches, the prize is reduced by $250,000. They're calling this a blackout, although the mathematical term is a derangement.

UPDATE: In episode 5, host Ryan Devlin indicates that at least one non-truth-booth match is necessary to avoid a blackout. That increases the chances of a blackout - my guess is that the odds approximately double. Strikeout text below indicates calculations that assumed that a truth booth eliminated the possibility of a blackout, underlined text is what was added after episode 5.

1,334,961 out of the 3,628,880 (36.8%) possible combinations have zero perfect matches. We won't know exactly which 1,334,961 are the zero perfect matches until later in the season, of course.

The probability of a blackout in the first episode is 36.4% are slightly below 1 in 3 at 32.7%. There's a 90% chance of the first truth booth being no match, and then the odds of a blackout in the subsequent matchup is 1,186,632 in 3,265,920 = 36.3%. Add on the 10% chance of a perfect match, then the odds of striking out on the other 9 picks is 133,496 out of 362,880 = 36.8%. That combines to 36.4%.

Note that it's not possible to calculate the odds of a blackout during any subsequent matchup ceremony prior to a perfect match. This is because the contestants don't know which combinations are correct before they go into the matchup ceremony, so oftentimes they will pick a combination that already has been eliminated. The contestants are usually trustworthy enough to not pair up in possibilities that have already been eliminated in truth booths or blackouts, but they don't have the time or tools to ensure that their guess hasn't already been invalidated through other rules.

Overall, though - we know that the chances of a blackout in any given season is more than the 36.4% 32.7% mentioned earlier - it's probably closer to 40% 90%. In fact, we'd expect more than one blackout on average per season. Great money-saving move by MTV.

Obviously, once a perfect match has been identified in the truth booth, the chances of a blackout drop to zero, since the couple is automatically paired in the matchup ceremony.

I do have information at the time of the matchup ceremony what the chances of that combination being a blackout are, and I'll post that with each episode going forward.

Wednesday, September 30, 2015

Season 3, Episode 2 Probabilities - Live Blog

10:05: USA! Except... uh... 51 states?

10:08: Pretty interesting challenge... memorization and running.

10:09: Am I crazy or does Hannah look like Hannah Davis?

10:17: Kiki crazy

10:17: If this were to follow the same formula as previous seasons, Kiki and Devin could go into the truth booth, come out not a match, and then keep hooking up all season.

10:18 "I'm a GIANT mama's boy."

10:19: Kayla and Connor with some early chemistry.

10:21: OK, Mike may actually be the filet mignon of his craft.

10:28: Refreshing to hear Tyler having a personality other than "I'm just here to have sex."

Truth Booth

10:30: Devin and Kiki have a 9.8% chance of being a perfect match.

10:38: They're always surprised when a truth booth results in not a perfect match, but that's the math for you.

548,821 combinations remain.


10:40: What a surprise, my prediction of Kiki and Devin staying together was correct!

10:48: Devin is a math genius apparently.

10:55: Devin reciprocates Melanie's pick from episode 1... but she doesn't seem happy about it.

10:57: LOTS of repeats from episode 1. A zero here would get them a lot closer to getting the right answer (it would leave 63,208 combinations), but it would also dock their prize $250,000.

Matchup Ceremony
  • Hunter - Stacey
  • Austin - Kiki (repeat from episode 1)
  • Connor - Kayla
  • Nelson - Cheyenne (repeat from episode 1)
  • Mike - Amanda (repeat from episode 1)
  • Zak - Britni
  • Devin - Melanie (repeat from episode 1)
  • Tyler - Rashida (repeat from episode 1)
  • Alec - Chelsey
  • Chuck - Hannah (repeat from episode 1)
BLACKOUT! The chances of a blackout with this specific combination was 11.5%. They got really unlucky here.

What are the odds of a blackout?

That reduces the total prize to a 30-year annuity that will pay out $750,000 - or $18,750 per person in present value.


63,208 combinations remain. They know for certain that 2 perfect matches are among: Chelsea - Connor, Stacey - Alec, Britni - Hunter, Kayla - Zak.

New this year, see how the competitors match up by season:

Thursday, September 24, 2015

Season 3, Episode 1 Probabilities - Live Blog

MTV's Are You The One? features 10 men and 10 women looking for their perfect match. If they manage to guess the exactly right combination, they'll split $1,000,000.

Here I'll be keeping track of the possible remaining perfect match combinations (with the help of a computer), and looking into the potential strategy of playing this game. The math work here will be independent of the romance and excitement that comes with the pairings. Unless noted otherwise, assume the probabilities of a matchup here being successful are random, ignoring chemistry and all the parts of the show that are actually fun.

Prize and Probability of Winning

All 20 winners will split a 30-year annuity that will pay out $1,000,000. That means if they elect to take the present day "lump sum," they'll end up with around $25,000 each (in addition to a shot at finding their perfect match and getting some weekly face time on MTV).

The number of possible permutations in the original game is 10 factorial = 10! = 10 * 9 * 8 * 7 * 6 * 5 * 4 * 3 * 2 * 1 = 3,628,800. Put simply, a random guess would have a 1 in 3,628,800 chance of winning (0.00002756%).

The show has multiple challenges where additional information is provided, reducing the number of possible combinations. The contestants only have 10 episodes to find the perfect match, so they'll need to reduce it quickly to have a chance.

Live Blog

11:02: And we're off!

11:06: The twist this year is that a "blackout" of no matches reduces the payout by $250,000.

11:07: I was going to say no Asians this year, but Kiki is Asian apparently.

11:10: This got super serious super quickly. Rashida apparently thought making out in the first 3 minutes was planting a flag

11:12: Did nobody tell these people what this show is about? Of course people are going to be making out with multiple people. I feel like it would be way more real if one of the guys was mad that nobody was making out with him.

11:18: Devin is my early favorite.

11:19: Not knowing half of their names might be a problem.

11:20: Make Tyler my new favorite.

11:30: "You're my match" is top quality dirty talk.

11:34: Good strategy to puke with the pants off.

11:37: Hunter and Kiki in the truth booth. Wow, people really don't want to go into the truth booth.

Truth Booth

Hunter and Kiki are not a match. As in season 1, this leaves 3,265,920 combinations.


11:54: Wow, Nelson blowing up Devin's shit!!!

11:56: How can Stacey and Alec fight like that on just the first pick? What?

Matchup Ceremony
  • Hannah - Chuck
  • Rashida - Tyler
  • Amanda - Mike
  • Melanie - Devin
  • Chelsey - Connor
  • Kiki - Austin
  • Stacey - Alec
  • Britni - Hunter
  • Cheyenne - Nelson
  • Kayla - Zak
The chance of this matchup ceremony resulting in a blackout is 36.3% (1,186,632 possible blackout combinations). But there were 2 matches - leaving 608,153 combinations.