Wednesday, September 30, 2015

Season 3, Episode 2 Probabilities - Live Blog

10:05: USA! Except... uh... 51 states?

10:08: Pretty interesting challenge... memorization and running.

10:09: Am I crazy or does Hannah look like Hannah Davis?

10:17: Kiki crazy

10:17: If this were to follow the same formula as previous seasons, Kiki and Devin could go into the truth booth, come out not a match, and then keep hooking up all season.

10:18 "I'm a GIANT mama's boy."

10:19: Kayla and Connor with some early chemistry.

10:21: OK, Mike may actually be the filet mignon of his craft.

10:28: Refreshing to hear Tyler having a personality other than "I'm just here to have sex."

Truth Booth

10:30: Devin and Kiki have a 9.8% chance of being a perfect match.

10:38: They're always surprised when a truth booth results in not a perfect match, but that's the math for you.

548,821 combinations remain.

AlecAustinChuckConnorDevinHunterMikeNelsonTylerZak
Amanda8.8%8.4%8.8%8.8%9.8%9.8%18.9%8.8%8.8%8.8%
Britni8.6%8.3%8.6%8.6%9.6%21.6%8.6%8.6%8.6%8.6%
Chelsey8.8%8.4%8.8%18.9%9.8%9.8%8.8%8.8%8.8%8.8%
Cheyenne8.8%8.4%8.8%8.8%9.8%9.8%8.8%18.9%8.8%8.8%
Hannah8.8%8.4%18.9%8.8%9.8%9.8%8.8%8.8%8.8%8.8%
Kayla8.8%8.4%8.8%8.8%9.8%9.8%8.8%8.8%8.8%18.9%
Kiki10.8%24.3%10.8%10.8%XX10.8%10.8%10.8%10.8%
Melanie8.6%8.3%8.6%8.6%21.6%9.6%8.6%8.6%8.6%8.6%
Rashida8.8%8.4%8.8%8.8%9.8%9.8%8.8%8.8%18.9%8.8%
Stacey18.9%8.4%8.8%8.8%9.8%9.8%8.8%8.8%8.8%8.8%


10:40: What a surprise, my prediction of Kiki and Devin staying together was correct!

10:48: Devin is a math genius apparently.

10:55: Devin reciprocates Melanie's pick from episode 1... but she doesn't seem happy about it.

10:57: LOTS of repeats from episode 1. A zero here would get them a lot closer to getting the right answer (it would leave 63,208 combinations), but it would also dock their prize $250,000.

Matchup Ceremony
  • Hunter - Stacey
  • Austin - Kiki (repeat from episode 1)
  • Connor - Kayla
  • Nelson - Cheyenne (repeat from episode 1)
  • Mike - Amanda (repeat from episode 1)
  • Zak - Britni
  • Devin - Melanie (repeat from episode 1)
  • Tyler - Rashida (repeat from episode 1)
  • Alec - Chelsey
  • Chuck - Hannah (repeat from episode 1)
BLACKOUT! The chances of a blackout with this specific combination was 11.5%. They got really unlucky here.

What are the odds of a blackout?

That reduces the total prize to a 30-year annuity that will pay out $750,000 - or $18,750 per person in present value.

AlecAustinChuckConnorDevinHunterMikeNelsonTylerZak
Amanda7.4%13.9%13.3%7.4%16.2%8.0%X13.3%13.3%7.4%
Britni2.0%6.9%6.5%2.3%8.1%54.8%6.5%6.5%6.5%X
ChelseyX7.7%7.4%48.6%9.0%2.8%7.4%7.4%7.4%2.4%
Cheyenne7.4%13.9%13.3%7.4%16.2%8.0%13.3%X13.3%7.4%
Hannah7.4%13.9%X7.4%16.2%8.0%13.3%13.3%13.3%7.4%
Kayla2.8%7.8%7.5%X9.1%2.4%7.5%7.5%7.5%48.1%
Kiki9.6%X17.8%9.6%XX17.8%17.8%17.8%9.6%
Melanie7.6%14.3%13.7%7.6%X8.2%13.7%13.7%13.7%7.6%
Rashida7.4%13.9%13.3%7.4%16.2%8.0%13.3%13.3%X7.4%
Stacey48.6%7.7%7.4%2.4%9.0%X7.4%7.4%7.4%2.8%


63,208 combinations remain. They know for certain that 2 perfect matches are among: Chelsea - Connor, Stacey - Alec, Britni - Hunter, Kayla - Zak.

New this year, see how the competitors match up by season:


6 comments:

  1. Wow! Did not see that coming. I expected maybe 2 of the 6 repeats to be right and maybe add 1 more but they completely messed up. Next week should be interesting since they all essentially just had a "no match" TB.

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  2. Thank you so much for continuing your blog this season. I follow it diligently and alter my guesses accordingly. :)

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  3. So what are the chances of a Blackout are on any given Matchup Ceremony? Are they less then the chances of making at least 1 match? My hunch is that it's not that improbable but hunches and probability don't usually work that well together...

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    Replies
    1. I wrote a follow-up post: http://areuthe.blogspot.com/2015/10/season-3-what-are-odds-of-blackout.html

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  4. I guess you meant they know for sure that 2 perfect matches are among: Chelsea - Connor, Stacey - Alec, Britni - Hunter, Kayla - Zak (which are clearly also the ones with a higher probability of being a match).

    Thank you! I don't even know how to get those numbers o.o

    ReplyDelete