10:08: Pretty interesting challenge... memorization and running.
10:09: Am I crazy or does Hannah look like Hannah Davis?
10:17: Kiki crazy
10:17: If this were to follow the same formula as previous seasons, Kiki and Devin could go into the truth booth, come out not a match, and then keep hooking up all season.
10:18 "I'm a GIANT mama's boy."
10:19: Kayla and Connor with some early chemistry.
10:21: OK, Mike may actually be the filet mignon of his craft.
10:28: Refreshing to hear Tyler having a personality other than "I'm just here to have sex."
Truth Booth
10:30: Devin and Kiki have a 9.8% chance of being a perfect match.
10:38: They're always surprised when a truth booth results in not a perfect match, but that's the math for you.
548,821 combinations remain.
| Alec | Austin | Chuck | Connor | Devin | Hunter | Mike | Nelson | Tyler | Zak | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda | 8.8% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 18.9% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.8% |
| Britni | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 21.6% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.6% |
| Chelsey | 8.8% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 18.9% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.8% |
| Cheyenne | 8.8% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 18.9% | 8.8% | 8.8% |
| Hannah | 8.8% | 8.4% | 18.9% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.8% |
| Kayla | 8.8% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 18.9% |
| Kiki | 10.8% | 24.3% | 10.8% | 10.8% | X | X | 10.8% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 10.8% |
| Melanie | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 21.6% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.6% |
| Rashida | 8.8% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 18.9% | 8.8% |
| Stacey | 18.9% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.8% |
10:40: What a surprise, my prediction of Kiki and Devin staying together was correct!
10:48: Devin is a math genius apparently.
10:55: Devin reciprocates Melanie's pick from episode 1... but she doesn't seem happy about it.
10:57: LOTS of repeats from episode 1. A zero here would get them a lot closer to getting the right answer (it would leave 63,208 combinations), but it would also dock their prize $250,000.
Matchup Ceremony
- Hunter - Stacey
- Austin - Kiki (repeat from episode 1)
- Connor - Kayla
- Nelson - Cheyenne (repeat from episode 1)
- Mike - Amanda (repeat from episode 1)
- Zak - Britni
- Devin - Melanie (repeat from episode 1)
- Tyler - Rashida (repeat from episode 1)
- Alec - Chelsey
- Chuck - Hannah (repeat from episode 1)
What are the odds of a blackout?
That reduces the total prize to a 30-year annuity that will pay out $750,000 - or $18,750 per person in present value.
| Alec | Austin | Chuck | Connor | Devin | Hunter | Mike | Nelson | Tyler | Zak | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda | 7.4% | 13.9% | 13.3% | 7.4% | 16.2% | 8.0% | X | 13.3% | 13.3% | 7.4% |
| Britni | 2.0% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 2.3% | 8.1% | 54.8% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | X |
| Chelsey | X | 7.7% | 7.4% | 48.6% | 9.0% | 2.8% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 2.4% |
| Cheyenne | 7.4% | 13.9% | 13.3% | 7.4% | 16.2% | 8.0% | 13.3% | X | 13.3% | 7.4% |
| Hannah | 7.4% | 13.9% | X | 7.4% | 16.2% | 8.0% | 13.3% | 13.3% | 13.3% | 7.4% |
| Kayla | 2.8% | 7.8% | 7.5% | X | 9.1% | 2.4% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 48.1% |
| Kiki | 9.6% | X | 17.8% | 9.6% | X | X | 17.8% | 17.8% | 17.8% | 9.6% |
| Melanie | 7.6% | 14.3% | 13.7% | 7.6% | X | 8.2% | 13.7% | 13.7% | 13.7% | 7.6% |
| Rashida | 7.4% | 13.9% | 13.3% | 7.4% | 16.2% | 8.0% | 13.3% | 13.3% | X | 7.4% |
| Stacey | 48.6% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 2.4% | 9.0% | X | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 2.8% |
63,208 combinations remain. They know for certain that 2 perfect matches are among: Chelsea - Connor, Stacey - Alec, Britni - Hunter, Kayla - Zak.
New this year, see how the competitors match up by season:
Wow! Did not see that coming. I expected maybe 2 of the 6 repeats to be right and maybe add 1 more but they completely messed up. Next week should be interesting since they all essentially just had a "no match" TB.
ReplyDeleteThank you so much for continuing your blog this season. I follow it diligently and alter my guesses accordingly. :)
ReplyDeleteSo what are the chances of a Blackout are on any given Matchup Ceremony? Are they less then the chances of making at least 1 match? My hunch is that it's not that improbable but hunches and probability don't usually work that well together...
ReplyDeleteI wrote a follow-up post: http://areuthe.blogspot.com/2015/10/season-3-what-are-odds-of-blackout.html
DeleteI guess you meant they know for sure that 2 perfect matches are among: Chelsea - Connor, Stacey - Alec, Britni - Hunter, Kayla - Zak (which are clearly also the ones with a higher probability of being a match).
ReplyDeleteThank you! I don't even know how to get those numbers o.o
Whoops! You're right.
Delete