Season 7, Episode 13 Probabilities - Live Blog

10:05: Cali talking family. Andrew talking marriage???

10:09: Sam and Tomas?

Matchup Ceremony #9

• Brett - Bria
• Kwasi - Nutsa (inferred no match after ceremony 8)
• Andrew - Cali
• Moe - Kayla (repeat from ceremony 8)
• Daniel - Lauren (repeat from ceremony 4)
• Tomas - Jasmine
• Lewis - Asia (repeat from ceremony 3, inferred no match after ceremony 7)
• Cam - Morgan
• Zak - Samantha (repeat from ceremony 2)

Blackout probabilities:  44% (15 of 34)
Instant win possible: No (fewer than 3 couples repeated from ceremony 1)
Maximum number of lights:  5
Most likely number of lights:  2 (blackout)

4 beams mean 5 possibilities remain.

	Andrew	Brett	Cam	Daniel	Kwasi	Lewis	Moe	Shamoy	Tevin	Tomas	Zak
Asia	X	X	X	X	60.0%	X	20.0%	X	X	20.0%	X
Bria	X	20.0%	20.0%	20.0%	X	20.0%	X	X	X	20.0%	X
Cali	60.0%	X	X	20.0%	X	X	20.0%	X	X	X	X
Jasmine	X	X	X	20.0%	X	60.0%	X	X	X	20.0%	X
Kayla	X	X	X	X	20.0%	X	60.0%	X	X	X	20.0%
Kenya	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X
Lauren	X	X	40.0%	20.0%	20.0%	X	X	X	X	20.0%	X
Maria	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X
Morgan	X	X	20.0%	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	80.0%
Nutsa	X	40.0%	20.0%	20.0%	X	X	X	X	X	20.0%	X
Samantha	40.0%	40.0%	X	X	X	20.0%	X	X	X	X	X

1. Asia - Kwasi, Bria - Tomas, Cali - Moe, Jasmine - Lewis, Kayla - Zak, Lauren - Daniel, Morgan - Cam, Nutsa - Brett, Samantha - Andrew
2. Asia - Kwasi, Bria - Brett, Cali - Daniel, Jasmine - Lewis, Kayla - Moe, Lauren - Tomas, Morgan - Zak, Nutsa - Cam, Samantha - Andrew
3. Asia - Tomas, Bria - Cam, Cali - Andrew, Jasmine - Daniel, Kayla - Moe, Lauren - Kwasi, Morgan - Zak, Nutsa - Brett, Samantha - Lewis
4. Asia - Kwasi, Bria - Daniel, Cali - Andrew, Jasmine - Lewis, Kayla - Moe, Lauren - Cam, Morgan - Zak, Nutsa - Tomas, Samantha - Brett
5. Asia - Moe, Bria - Lewis, Cali - Andrew, Jasmine - Tomas, Kayla - Kwasi, Lauren - Cam, Morgan - Zak, Nutsa - Daniel, Samantha - Brett

Let's talk strategy. Sending a 20% or 80% couple into the Truth Booth seems like the right move. Getting lucky means we'll only have one combination going into the Matchup Ceremony.

Things look bleak - if we had full control over the Truth Booth and Matchup Ceremony, with all the information we have right now... we only have a 40% chance of winning.

10:43: Brett and Moe are the Fate Button's choice.

10:49: Nutsa and Lauren are also going on the date.

Moe is not a match with either of the women. Brett is not a match with Lauren and Nutsa is a 40% chance...

So, we will not know the right combination going into the finale. Either 2, 3, or 5 combinations will be left depending on which couple is going to the Truth Booth.

Truth Booth #10

It's Brett and Nutsa going to the Truth Booth.

Unfortunately, if the Truth Booth says Brett and Nutsa are a perfect match, we won't be able to infer any other perfect matches.

Brett and Nutsa being a no match will show that Zak and Morgan are a perfect match.

Season 7, Episode 12 Probabilities - Live Blog

Truth Booth #8, continued

As expected, we start off with Tevin and Kenya being a perfect match, with 128 combinations remaining.

	Andrew	Brett	Cam	Daniel	Kwasi	Lewis	Moe	Shamoy	Tevin	Tomas	Zak
Asia	X	18.8%	20.3%	4.7%	26.6%	X	14.1%	X	X	15.6%	X
Bria	4.7%	4.7%	12.5%	26.6%	4.7%	14.1%	21.9%	X	X	10.9%	X
Cali	25.8%	X	X	21.9%	18.8%	11.7%	13.3%	X	X	X	8.6%
Jasmine	4.7%	10.9%	12.5%	3.1%	1.6%	20.3%	29.7%	X	X	15.6%	1.6%
Kayla	25.8%	X	X	21.9%	18.8%	11.7%	13.3%	X	X	X	8.6%
Kenya	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X
Lauren	12.5%	12.5%	20.3%	1.6%	12.5%	21.9%	1.6%	X	X	17.2%	X
Maria	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X
Morgan	3.1%	X	6.2%	3.1%	4.7%	3.1%	3.1%	X	X	6.2%	70.3%
Nutsa	X	42.2%	17.2%	12.5%	6.2%	4.7%	X	X	X	17.2%	X
Samantha	23.4%	10.9%	10.9%	4.7%	6.2%	12.5%	3.1%	X	X	17.2%	10.9%

10:05: Some low-probability couples going on ... Samantha is convinced that Tevin and Kenya having some friction means Daniel could still be her match. Kwasi and Jasmine go out for a date.

Matchup Ceremony #8

• Asia - Daniel
• Lauren - Cam
• Bria - Lewis (repeat from ceremonies 6 and 7)
• Samantha - Andrew (repeat from ceremony 5)
• Kayla - Moe
• Cali - Zak
• Morgan - Tomas
• Nutsa - Brett (repeat from ceremonies 5, 6, and 7)
• Jasmine - Kwasi (repeat from ceremonies 3 and 5)

Blackout probabilities:  21% (27 of 128)
Instant win possible: No (fewer than 3 couples repeated from ceremony 1)
Maximum number of lights:  6
Most likely number of lights:  3

10:23: 4 beams means 34 possibilities left. Possibilities after the jump.

	Andrew	Brett	Cam	Daniel	Kwasi	Lewis	Moe	Shamoy	Tevin	Tomas	Zak
Asia	X	X	26.5%	8.8%	23.5%	X	14.7%	X	X	26.5%	X
Bria	2.9%	5.9%	11.8%	14.7%	2.9%	14.7%	32.4%	X	X	14.7%	X
Cali	20.6%	X	X	20.6%	23.5%	8.8%	11.8%	X	X	X	14.7%
Jasmine	11.8%	11.8%	14.7%	8.8%	X	23.5%	8.8%	X	X	14.7%	5.9%
Kayla	17.6%	X	X	17.6%	26.5%	2.9%	23.5%	X	X	X	11.8%
Kenya	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X
Lauren	14.7%	5.9%	35.3%	2.9%	17.6%	14.7%	X	X	X	8.8%	X
Maria	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X
Morgan	5.9%	X	8.8%	2.9%	2.9%	5.9%	2.9%	X	X	8.8%	61.8%
Nutsa	X	67.6%	2.9%	14.7%	X	X	X	X	X	14.7%	X
Samantha	26.5%	8.8%	X	8.8%	2.9%	29.4%	5.9%	X	X	11.8%	5.9%

10:26: Jasmine and Morgan expressing their frustration about not having enough sex. Jasmine apparently has been holding out. Morgan... runs into Zak immediately after this conversation, and then closes the door.

10:31: Weirdly, feels like Morgan's attitude towards sex with Zak fits pretty well with him. They're the second-highest probability couple.

10:32: Lots of fighting. People seem more concerned with fighting than trying to figure out their matches.

10:36: Brett's Fate Button press puts Jasmine and Samantha on the date.

10:37: Cali's Fate Button press sends off Tomas and Cam.  Most likely couple is either Jasmine and either Tomas and Cam - 14.7% each.

10:40: Samantha and Cam seem to be hitting it off... but they're not a match. We already know this.

10:43: Tomas... has no game. Jasmine not impressed with his love of High School Musical.

Truth Booth #9

10:48: Cam and Jasmine kissed, and Kwasi is not happy with that.

10:51: Cam and Samantha head off to the Truth Booth... we know they are not a match. So it's still 34 combinations remaining.

Two wasted Truth Booths in a row... and now, the possibility that we may not know all of the matches by the end of the 10th matchup ceremony seems to be very real. This aimless house has a ton of people in it who aren't feeling anyone!

10:59: Kwasi is fed up with Jasmine... potentially a good move as they are also not a match.

11:00: Wow, total meltdown by Kwasi! Andrew is hyped that they're close... but they're not.

Full list of combos after the jump...

Season 7, Episode 11 Probabilities - Live Blog

Matchup Ceremony #7, continued

We pick up with Cali's gambit.

7:03: Four beams validate that Cali and Tomas aren't a match, and Cam and Kayla are not a match.

But what we do learn is that Tevin and Kenya are a perfect match. There's no longer any possibility left that fits all of the Matchup Ceremonies and Truth Booths without the two of them as a match. 128 combinations remain.

	Andrew	Brett	Cam	Daniel	Kwasi	Lewis	Moe	Shamoy	Tevin	Tomas	Zak
Asia	X	18.8%	20.3%	4.7%	26.6%	X	14.1%	X	X	15.6%	X
Bria	4.7%	4.7%	12.5%	26.6%	4.7%	14.1%	21.9%	X	X	10.9%	X
Cali	25.8%	X	X	21.9%	18.8%	11.7%	13.3%	X	X	X	8.6%
Jasmine	4.7%	10.9%	12.5%	3.1%	1.6%	20.3%	29.7%	X	X	15.6%	1.6%
Kayla	25.8%	X	X	21.9%	18.8%	11.7%	13.3%	X	X	X	8.6%
Kenya	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X
Lauren	12.5%	12.5%	20.3%	1.6%	12.5%	21.9%	1.6%	X	X	17.2%	X
Maria	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X
Morgan	3.1%	X	6.2%	3.1%	4.7%	3.1%	3.1%	X	X	6.2%	70.3%
Nutsa	X	42.2%	17.2%	12.5%	6.2%	4.7%	X	X	X	17.2%	X
Samantha	23.4%	10.9%	10.9%	4.7%	6.2%	12.5%	3.1%	X	X	17.2%	10.9%

7:06: Cam is too conservative - didn't want to try new options, just fell for the first girl - and now he's stuck with no info in the game.

7:13: Lewis leads a group pep talk for Moe, who... doesn't want to pursue any women? But now he's up for pursuing Kayla. OK.

7:15: Sam sets up a whole scavenger hunt for Danny. That's cute. First clue is a pair of panties. Third clue is to do pushups and situps. Hilarious! Sam put on some nice lingerie for him at the end of the hunt.

7:18: It's Lauren playing with the Fate Button today. Tevin and Kwasi are up.

7:23: Tomas's Fate Button press yields... Kenya and Morgan. We already know that Tevin and Kenya are a match, so putting them in the Truth Booth is a waste... Morgan and Kwasi are only a 4.7% chance.

7:25: Terrence J is throwing a party.

7:27: Kwasi also feeling Jasmine...

7:28: Cam dancing... by himself. Doesn't seem like any of the girls are feeling him... until, Cali cuts loose and starts dancing with him. Zak is enticed by this and moves in on her... right in front of Morgan! Wow! Morgan absolutely calls him on it.

7:34: Morgan vows not to sit with Zak the rest of the season. There goes the highest probability couple...

7:35: But Kayla and Moe and starting to hit it off...? No, Kayla isn't ready to move on from Cam. It's Week 8! Is Cam and Bria a thing?

7:36: Cali and Danny starting to hang out a bit. Surprise, they're drunk! Lewis comforting Sam. Seems like the drama got ramped up a ton. Sam promises to beat Cali's ass.

7:44: The alcohol is ripping through the house. Kenya is falling apart knowing that Tevin is talking with Jasmine. Cali was right, though - nobody seemed to mind that she was on Tevin's lap.

7:50: A lot of the girls skipped out on the makeup this morning. Kenya is hung over.

7:51: Lewis calls out Andrew for wanting to pursue a "not losing" strategy rather than a winning strategy - putting Kwasi and Morgan in the Truth Booth and saving Tevin and Kenya as blackout prevention. A couple housemates are thinking the same thing.

Truth Booth #8

It's Kenya and Tevin - we already know they're a perfect match, but they'll likely need until the next episode to confirm it.

Season 7, Episode 10 Probabilities - Live Blog

Happy October 3!

10:02: We return to Bria asking Lewis if she needs to be more attractive for him. She is out on him.

10:05: Brett is all in on pouring water all over Nutsa.

10:06: Zak bored with stability with Morgan. Wants to start some drama! With Bria???

10:08: Brett and Nutsa hook up in the room with everyone else!

10:12: Lewis falling back on Samantha.

10:15: Fate Button will pick the ladies, and the ladies will get to pick the guys. It's Nutsa and Bria. Clearly we're thinking Nutsa and Brett.

10:16: Bria wants to fuck with everyone and send Zak on the date with Nutsa and take Brett from him. And she does!

10:23: Surprise, Bria picked Zak to go on the date so they could get time together!

10:34: Daniel has had it with everyone!

Truth Booth #7

It's Nutsa and Zak. Apparently Brett convinced everyone to send them in.

No match only removes 36 possibilities - leaving 538 possibilities.

	Andrew	Brett	Cam	Daniel	Kwasi	Lewis	Moe	Shamoy	Tevin	Tomas	Zak
Asia	X	10.2%	5.0%	6.5%	27.1%	3.7%	24.7%	X	5.6%	10.0%	7.1%
Bria	9.5%	12.1%	6.7%	22.7%	6.1%	15.8%	15.1%	X	6.5%	5.6%	X
Cali	13.8%	X	6.3%	12.5%	12.1%	8.6%	8.6%	X	6.1%	26.2%	5.9%
Jasmine	9.5%	12.5%	5.8%	11.3%	3.0%	13.4%	20.1%	X	2.0%	10.8%	11.7%
Kayla	9.3%	X	49.6%	10.2%	6.1%	5.9%	4.8%	X	0.9%	5.4%	7.6%
Kenya	8.7%	X	1.1%	9.3%	5.6%	2.0%	5.2%	X	56.7%	5.2%	6.1%
Lauren	22.7%	11.0%	6.9%	4.3%	10.2%	16.2%	3.3%	X	6.1%	11.5%	7.8%
Maria	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X
Morgan	1.5%	5.6%	4.5%	10.2%	8.0%	11.5%	4.5%	X	3.9%	3.7%	46.7%
Nutsa	3.0%	32.2%	7.1%	10.0%	9.3%	12.8%	9.1%	X	5.8%	10.8%	X
Samantha	22.1%	16.5%	7.1%	3.0%	12.5%	10.0%	4.6%	X	6.3%	10.8%	7.1%

10:40: This might be the least suspenseful Truth Booth. Seems like everyone knew it wasn't a match. Kwasi is bottoming out.

10:42: Brett is now trying to justify it. Kwasi accusing Brett of wanting to stay in the house. Andrew agrees!

10:48: Cali the strategist advocates for repeating every couple except swapping Cam and Tomas. An interesting take, and it could yield either two definite perfect matches (with two fewer lights), either one or two perfect matches (with two fewer lights), or two or no perfect matches (with the same number of lights).

Matchup Ceremony #7
10:52: Everyone else is joining in the strategy.

10:53: Bria looks soooo happy that she kissed Zak. Power move on Morgan.

10:56: Seems like people are not feeling the strategy even though they're going with it. Maria particularly vocal.

• Brett - Nutsa (repeat from ceremonies 5 and 6)
• Daniel - Samantha (repeat from ceremonies 3 and 6)
• Tevin - Kenya (repeat from ceremonies 1, 3, 5, and 6)
• Andrew - Lauren (repeat from ceremonies 1, 3, and 5)
• Zak - Morgan (repeat from ceremonies 3, 4, 5, and 6)
• Lewis - Bria (repeat from ceremony 6)
• Moe - Jasmine (repeat from ceremonies 1 and 6)
• Kwasi - Asia (repeat from ceremonies 1 and 6)
• Cam - Cali
• Tomas - Kayla

Blackout probabilities:  0%
Instant win possible: No (more than 3 couples repeated from ceremony 1)
Maximum number of lights:  6
Most likely number of lights:  3

And it looks like we'll have to wait for next week to get the beams. Note: No live blog next week.

Here is what happens with each possible number of beams, and the likelihood of each number of beams... it's more likely that they get no new perfect matches than any perfect matches.

Beams	Combinations	Cali-Tomas	Kayla-Cam	Kenya-Tevin	Cali-Cam	Kayla-Tomas
2	56 (10.4%)	Match	Match	X	X	X
3	296 (55.0%)	28.7%	71.3%	40.2%	X	X
4	128 (23.8%)	X	X	Match	X	X
5	53 (9.9%)	X	X	Match	54.7%	45.3%
6	5 (0.9%)	X	X	Match	Match	Match