10:02: We return to Bria asking Lewis if she needs to be more attractive for him. She is out on him.
10:05: Brett is all in on pouring water all over Nutsa.
10:06: Zak bored with stability with Morgan. Wants to start some drama! With Bria???
10:08: Brett and Nutsa hook up in the room with everyone else!
10:12: Lewis falling back on Samantha.
10:15: Fate Button will pick the ladies, and the ladies will get to pick the guys. It's Nutsa and Bria. Clearly we're thinking Nutsa and Brett.
10:16: Bria wants to fuck with everyone and send Zak on the date with Nutsa and take Brett from him. And she does!
10:23: Surprise, Bria picked Zak to go on the date so they could get time together!
10:34: Daniel has had it with everyone!
Truth Booth #7
It's Nutsa and Zak. Apparently Brett convinced everyone to send them in.
No match only removes 36 possibilities - leaving 538 possibilities.
| Andrew | Brett | Cam | Daniel | Kwasi | Lewis | Moe | Shamoy | Tevin | Tomas | Zak | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | X | 10.2% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 27.1% | 3.7% | 24.7% | X | 5.6% | 10.0% | 7.1% |
| Bria | 9.5% | 12.1% | 6.7% | 22.7% | 6.1% | 15.8% | 15.1% | X | 6.5% | 5.6% | X |
| Cali | 13.8% | X | 6.3% | 12.5% | 12.1% | 8.6% | 8.6% | X | 6.1% | 26.2% | 5.9% |
| Jasmine | 9.5% | 12.5% | 5.8% | 11.3% | 3.0% | 13.4% | 20.1% | X | 2.0% | 10.8% | 11.7% |
| Kayla | 9.3% | X | 49.6% | 10.2% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 4.8% | X | 0.9% | 5.4% | 7.6% |
| Kenya | 8.7% | X | 1.1% | 9.3% | 5.6% | 2.0% | 5.2% | X | 56.7% | 5.2% | 6.1% |
| Lauren | 22.7% | 11.0% | 6.9% | 4.3% | 10.2% | 16.2% | 3.3% | X | 6.1% | 11.5% | 7.8% |
| Maria | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | Match | X | X | X |
| Morgan | 1.5% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 10.2% | 8.0% | 11.5% | 4.5% | X | 3.9% | 3.7% | 46.7% |
| Nutsa | 3.0% | 32.2% | 7.1% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 12.8% | 9.1% | X | 5.8% | 10.8% | X |
| Samantha | 22.1% | 16.5% | 7.1% | 3.0% | 12.5% | 10.0% | 4.6% | X | 6.3% | 10.8% | 7.1% |
10:40: This might be the least suspenseful Truth Booth. Seems like everyone knew it wasn't a match. Kwasi is bottoming out.
10:42: Brett is now trying to justify it. Kwasi accusing Brett of wanting to stay in the house. Andrew agrees!
10:48: Cali the strategist advocates for repeating every couple except swapping Cam and Tomas. An interesting take, and it could yield either two definite perfect matches (with two fewer lights), either one or two perfect matches (with two fewer lights), or two or no perfect matches (with the same number of lights).
Matchup Ceremony #7
10:52: Everyone else is joining in the strategy.
10:53: Bria looks soooo happy that she kissed Zak. Power move on Morgan.
10:56: Seems like people are not feeling the strategy even though they're going with it. Maria particularly vocal.
- Brett - Nutsa (repeat from ceremonies 5 and 6)
- Daniel - Samantha (repeat from ceremonies 3 and 6)
- Tevin - Kenya (repeat from ceremonies 1, 3, 5, and 6)
- Andrew - Lauren (repeat from ceremonies 1, 3, and 5)
- Zak - Morgan (repeat from ceremonies 3, 4, 5, and 6)
- Lewis - Bria (repeat from ceremony 6)
- Moe - Jasmine (repeat from ceremonies 1 and 6)
- Kwasi - Asia (repeat from ceremonies 1 and 6)
- Cam - Cali
- Tomas - Kayla
Instant win possible: No (more than 3 couples repeated from ceremony 1)
Maximum number of lights: 6
Most likely number of lights: 3
And it looks like we'll have to wait for next week to get the beams. Note: No live blog next week.
Here is what happens with each possible number of beams, and the likelihood of each number of beams... it's more likely that they get no new perfect matches than any perfect matches.
| Beams | Combinations | Cali-Tomas | Kayla-Cam | Kenya-Tevin | Cali-Cam | Kayla-Tomas |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 56 (10.4%) | Match | Match | X | X | X |
| 3 | 296 (55.0%) | 28.7% | 71.3% | 40.2% | X | X |
| 4 | 128 (23.8%) | X | X | Match | X | X |
| 5 | 53 (9.9%) | X | X | Match | 54.7% | 45.3% |
| 6 | 5 (0.9%) | X | X | Match | Match | Match |
I feel like the house deserves to fail for falling for Bria's bs.
ReplyDeleteAgreed! How are they not calling her on this BS constantly??
DeleteShe seems to be part of the cool kids clique. I don’t get it. She’s certifiable.
Deletei was thinking the same shit
ReplyDeleteBrett’s tattoo is the coordinates for Bob Marley’s Mausoleum
ReplyDeleteIf there are 2 beams, how can both of those couples be a match? Because aren't Maria and Shamoy one of the beams?
ReplyDeleteOne of the beams from Ceremony 7 is Maria and Shamoy. The other beam is neither of Cam-Kayla and Cali-Tomas because they're not sitting together.
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DeleteSince we know Tevin and Kenya go into the truth booth later on this season (based on the second half season promo a few weeks ago), that means two beams are impossible this matchup
ReplyDeleteI’m not sure if you can rule those 10.4% of possibilities out but if you can, it could give more information
DeleteI bet it's three, because why would they also waste a truth booth on something they already knew was a mathematical certainty? Normally I would think maybe they wouldn't realize it, but trying to figure out these three couples was the whole goal
Deleteobviously it's most likely they get 3 + the mid-season trailer does seem to confirm it, but I'm hoping it's a red herring... there is the possibility that the fate button serves them up no option.
DeleteWe know that Tevin and Kenya go into the truth booth at some point, so I’m assuming they don’t get two.
ReplyDeleteIf they get two beams, couldn't it be Zac and Morgan because they were the only two sitting together on the fourth round of matchups (the week they only got two beams) compared to this week and last? Maybe I missed something.
ReplyDeleteyes, if they get two beams this week then it accounts for two of the four beams from ceremony 6, the third beam is maria and shamoy that leaves one (and only one!) beam from the rest of the 7 couples (ie anyone else apart from Tevin & Kenya. Quite a few strong possibilites, morgan and zak, nutsa and brett, lauren and andrew all on my radar.
DeleteIf they get 4 beams then I think it's Tevin/Kenya, Brett/Nutsa, Andrew/Lauren and of course Shamoy/Maria.
ReplyDeleteThis episode was so frustrating like how can ya'll let Brett mess up 2 truth booths and let Bria talk ya'll into letting Zak go on the date? :(
Next season should have an older cast...people who actually genuinely not only want to find love but also play the game seriously. It's like this is a joke to them
ReplyDeleteThe biggest flaw in Cali’s plan is that she has convinced the house (and herself) that she and Tomas are a “power couple”. In fact, Zak and Morgan fit that description too. They sat together just as many times.
ReplyDeleteThe only true such couples are Tevin/Kenya and Cam/Kayla. Those are the two couples who should have switched, but that would have risked a blackout.
It's true that they didn't have to swop Cali/Tomas but given than Tevin/Kenya weren't down for the plan but could be relied upon to sit together anyway it made sense. There was in fact another power trio they could have done the same method with based on ceremonys 3 and 6 instead though - Morgan/Zak, Lauren/Andrew & Samantha/Daniel.
DeleteYou haven't understood the strategy at all if you think that swopping just tevin/kenya and cam/kayla (but keeping the rest of the couples the same as the previous ceremony) risked a blackout.
Amy Beth, as long as two couples switched, with everyone else the same, it doesn't risk a blackout. The previous matchup had four beams. With one confirmed match, the house needs two beams to avoid a blackout. If two couples switch, at worst it destroys two beams, leaving two and no blackout. In terms of avoiding a blackout, it doesn't matter which two couples switched. Whichever two couples switch, the results are guaranteed to tell us if both, neither, or exactly one of the couples is a beam.
DeleteI sbhould have been clearer. The switch I proposed would work, not with Cali’s keep week #7 like week #6, but if they did a similar strategy recreating any of the first 3 ceremonies.
DeleteWeeks 1-3 each had 3 beams. During all 3 of those weeks, M/S (confirmed), T/K and C/K sat together. If those 2 unconfirmed power couples are indeed both Perfect Matches, no other couples that sat together any time during the first 3 ceremonies could be matches.
If your proposal was to change to one of the earlier lineups, there is no benefit, as you would get the same information, but would have a chance at a blackout.
DeleteIf you are suggesting that they should have tried this switch earlier in the game, it is important to remember that Maria and Shamoy were confirmed before the 3rd matchup. I don't think you could have gotten the whole house to agree after a single matchup ceremony to pair with the same partner so that 2 couples check to see if they were matches based on 3 lights. Also, they weren't even the only couples to be close enough to sit together for the first two ceremonies - Daniel and Nutsa also sat together for those.
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ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteThis episode was the most frustrating yet. First off, letting Bria trick the house into picking Zak (and then her getting away with it and all the fall out being on Brett). Then Brett telling Asia he doesn't think Nutsa his is match (when they definitely needed to get them in the truth booth considering how many times they've sat together, it gives way more information than Nutsa and Zak ever could).
ReplyDeleteThen there's Cali's plan which on the surface may seem okay but in reality won't work. She's picked 3 couples she thinks are 'power couples' but really there are at least 6 couples all together that could be that based on how much times they've sat together. Her plan might've worked if they had a lot more than 4 beams because with only 4 it could be a huge amount of possibilities.
Especially because we know Tevan and Kenya go into the truth booth later, we know this plan fails because it would've proved the two a match, but it's likely they'll still get 4 beams, or possibly 3.
I don't think Cali and Tomas are a match. The possibilities for the 4 for me are could be Tevin and Kenya, Zak and Morgan (cause who else could be zak's match now), Kayla and Cam and Brett and Nutsa. However i do think there is a possibility between Andrew and Lauren and Kwasi and Asia.
I think these guys are too naive and young to figure out who to get actual information to figure it out and if they keep this up, I think they could lose.
I wouldn’t make too many assumptions based on Tevin and Kenya going into the TB.
ReplyDeleteTevin might still not believe “the numbers” and want confirmation. Plus, we don’t know who the other 2 people on the group date were.
Remember, this is not a very smart group of people.
How are Tevin and Kevin not a match if its 2 beams with the 'plan' by Cali? There was 2 beams lit up already.
ReplyDelete2 beams lit up, but that was guaranteed (only 2 couples changed, so at most, you could only have lost 2 lights). If it stops at 2 lights, that means that the couples that switched WERE perfect matches. If that is the case, check out the pairings from the 2nd matchup:
DeleteMaria-Shamoy (truth booth confirmed)
Cali-Tomas (would be confirmed if it stopped at 2 lights)
Kayla-Cam (would be confirmed if it stopped at 2 lights)
Kenya-Tevin
As there were only 3 lights in that ceremony, that means Kenya and Tevin can not be a pair.
So I was just playing with some possibilities (not mathematically based, but rather focusing a bit more on compatibility) and here is what I think could be the matches.
ReplyDeleteAsia and Lewis - I think that each is what the other needs
Cali and Tomas
Kayla and Cam
Maria and Shamoy (confirmed)
Nutsa and Brett
I don't think that Kenya/Tevin are a match because they're completely toxic together. It seems like a constant rivalry to out-hurt the other. I also think that Morgan/Zak aren't a match because there is no respect there. He needs someone who challenges him to be a better person, not continue to be an asshole. I think that these couples constantly staying together is what's messing them up.
Here are the other possibilities that I haven't been able to nail down.
Bria - possible match to Andrew or Tevin
Jasmine - Andrew, Daniel or Zak
Kenya - Andrew, Daniel, Kwasi, Moe or Zak
Lauren - Moe, Tevin or Zak
Morgan - Daniel, Kwasi, Moe or Tevin
Samantha - Kwasi or Tevin
Again, there's absolutely no math involved in my pairing of these people... it's just a hunch based on this match-up possibly proving that Cali/Tomas and Kayla/Cam are matches.
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ReplyDeleteIt's Asia that is talking to Lewis, not Bria :)
ReplyDeleteI think Tevin is too similar to Kenya's (ex)boyfriend so I don't think they're a match. The matchmakers wouldn't choose Tevin as Kenya's perfect match because the contestants are supposed to be looking for someone different than what they're typically attracted to.
ReplyDeleteThe contestants could have reduced the number of possibilities to at most 142 (instead of 296) with a better matching ceremony that still avoids a blackout:
ReplyDeleteAndrew-Cali, Brett-Nutsa, Cam-Kayla, Daniel-Asia, Kwasi-Lauren, Lewis-Bria, Moe-Jasmine, Shamoy-Maria, Tevin-Kenya, Tomas-Samantha, Zak-Morgan
See https://blogs.sas.com/content/operations/2018/08/14/are-you-the-one/.
I'm sorry, I'm probably being really slow here but I don't see how swapping Cali & Tomas and Kayla & Cam can give such certain results about Tevin & Kenya. Take the case where the house get 4 beams, meaning Cal-To & Kay-Cam aren't a match; how can we be so sure that Tevin and Kenya are a definitely one of the 3 remaining matches (other than Mar-Sham)? I know Tev-Ken are one of the most likely to be a perfect match out of the other pairs but I should think it could still technically be any of the others?
ReplyDeleteAlex's post states they are a match, so I'm assuming that the math shows their odds as 100% if they get 4 lights. That is the fast answer.
DeleteThe longer answer (and the way they would have to figure it out in the house) is this:
-Shamoy/Maria Confirmed
-Cam/Kayla and Cam/Cali and Tomas/Cali and Tomas/Kayla are confirmed no matches
-If you make the assumption that Tevin and Kenya are NOT a match, then there are 7 other couples (Andrew/Lauren, Brett/Nutsa, Daniel/Samantha, Kwasi/Asia, Lewis/Bria, Moe/Jasmine, Zak/Morgan) that need to have 3 matches between them. There are 35 possible combinations.
-Of those 35 combinations, they all give correct results in the last two matchup ceremonies, but none of them give correct results for all matchup ceremonies. Either you end up with too many matches for the beams they got that week, or you find that as you eliminate possible partners, that you can't deduce enough matches to make up the beams that they did get that week.