10:04: Bria is the one calming Kwasi down!
10:10: Tomas and Cali are happy together, but Lewis and Asia are not.
10:17: Fate Button twist... the guys are picked by the Fate Button but the guys will get to pick the girls. Kayla hits the Fate Button and it's Brett and Moe.
10:18: Moe is stumped as to who he wants to take on the date. The house heckles him too! Moe picks Kayla. Cam interjects saying we should hear Kayla's opinion... and she says, I'm fine with it! Weird that Asia didn't even seem to cross his mind...
10:23: Brett is also super indecisive. But eventually negotiates with Cali.
10:25: It's a boat date! With dolphins!
10:34: Moe struck out big time. Lewis calls him a body!
Truth Booth #6
It's Brett and Cali... and she's getting emotional at the possibility... but they're not a match. There are 1,524 possibilities left.
| Andrew | Brett | Cam | Daniel | Kwasi | Lewis | Moe | Shamoy | Tevin | Tomas | Zak | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | X | 11.7% | 4.7% | 8.2% | 15.6% | 4.3% | 26.7% | X | 4.9% | 12.7% | 11.1% |
| Bria | 14.6% | 15.2% | 6.8% | 21.5% | 7.4% | 15.3% | 8.8% | X | 5.7% | 4.8% | X |
| Cali | 12.8% | X | 5.5% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 11.7% | 10.0% | X | 5.1% | 25.0% | 9.8% |
| Jasmine | 11.9% | 12.7% | 5.6% | 8.9% | 18.8% | 6.4% | 12.9% | X | 2.7% | 9.4% | 10.8% |
| Kayla | 7.5% | 4.7% | 52.6% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.2% | X | 0.9% | 4.3% | 6.6% |
| Kenya | 7.3% | X | 1.0% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 5.3% | X | 61.1% | 4.1% | 5.8% |
| Lauren | 15.8% | 11.0% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 19.0% | 7.5% | X | 5.2% | 10.4% | 9.3% |
| Maria | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | Match | X | X | X |
| Morgan | 3.1% | 9.8% | 5.1% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 10.3% | 8.8% | X | 4.3% | 10.3% | 30.4% |
| Nutsa | 5.8% | 23.7% | 6.1% | 17.1% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 6.6% | X | 5.2% | 8.9% | 10.0% |
| Samantha | 21.3% | 11.2% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 12.1% | 14.6% | 8.1% | X | 4.9% | 10.2% | 6.2% |
Matchup Ceremony #6
10:43: Maria and Shamoy looking tan.
10:44: Cam lists off all the attributes he likes about Kayla... and... it could describe pretty much any of the other women in the house. Kwasi is OUT on Kayla.
10:47: The whole house doesn't like that Lewis is ignoring Asia despite sleeping next to each other every night.
- Lauren - Andrew (repeat from ceremonies 1 and 3)
- Nutsa - Brett (repeat from ceremony 5)
- Kayla - Cam (repeat from ceremonies 1, 2, 3, and 5)
- Bria - Lewis
- Asia - Kwasi (repeat from ceremony 1)
- Cali - Tomas (repeat from ceremonies 2, 4, and 5)
- Morgan - Zak (repeat from ceremonies 3, 4, and 5)
- Kenya - Tevin (repeat from ceremonies 1, 2, 3, and 5)
- Samantha - Daniel (repeat from ceremony 3)
- Jasmine - Moe (repeat from ceremony 1)
Instant win possible: No (more than 3 couples repeated from ceremony 1)
Maximum number of lights: 7
Most likely number of lights: 4
Looks like there were enough repeats to avoid a blackout. 4 beams brings it down to 574 combinations remaining. We get our first inferred no match - Kayla and Brett. OK.
| Andrew | Brett | Cam | Daniel | Kwasi | Lewis | Moe | Shamoy | Tevin | Tomas | Zak | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | X | 9.6% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 25.4% | 6.3% | 26.1% | X | 5.4% | 9.8% | 6.6% |
| Bria | 8.9% | 13.1% | 7.5% | 22.8% | 5.7% | 15.9% | 14.1% | X | 6.8% | 5.2% | X |
| Cali | 13.4% | X | 5.9% | 11.7% | 11.7% | 8.0% | 8.2% | X | 5.7% | 29.8% | 5.6% |
| Jasmine | 9.1% | 12.9% | 5.7% | 12.0% | 2.8% | 12.5% | 21.6% | X | 1.9% | 10.5% | 11.0% |
| Kayla | 9.4% | X | 49.7% | 10.3% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 4.5% | X | 0.9% | 5.1% | 7.1% |
| Kenya | 8.9% | X | 1.0% | 9.2% | 5.9% | 1.9% | 5.1% | X | 57.3% | 4.9% | 5.7% |
| Lauren | 23.7% | 11.7% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 9.6% | 15.2% | 3.1% | X | 6.4% | 10.8% | 7.3% |
| Maria | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | Match | X | X | X |
| Morgan | 1.4% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 12.2% | 4.4% | X | 3.8% | 3.5% | 43.7% |
| Nutsa | 2.8% | 30.1% | 6.6% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 12.0% | 8.5% | X | 5.4% | 10.1% | 6.3% |
| Samantha | 22.5% | 16.6% | 7.1% | 2.8% | 13.9% | 9.4% | 4.4% | X | 6.3% | 10.5% | 6.6% |
11:00: Lewis drops the bombshell - he doesn't find Asia attractive! She does not take it well.
They have a serious problem figuring this out. Kayla-Cam and Kenya-Tevin have the highest % but if those two are a match, then both Cali-Tomas and Morgan-Zak are wrong, along with a huge number of other combinations, since they have sat together 5 of 6 weeks. I feel like one of those two power couples has to be wrong, and if they don't figure it out soon, they are doomed.
ReplyDeletethe new format of 'fate' choosing the dates is probably a big factor in this. In any other season all these couples would have played the challenge together and quite a few would end up going away on dates and into the truth booth.
DeleteWith the exception of Maria/Shamoy they are only getting to put in random pairings or couples who have already moved on (or at least one half his over it, which isn't a good sign!)
Added to that removing the challenges also makes it more difficult to get to know each other (they appear to be just spending all day everyday sitting around the house), someone like Moe for example could really benefit from a silly game as an icebreaker.
I agree. They are also so far in that once a strong couple finds out they are not a match they won't move on.
DeleteI did the math on this and interestingly, the probability of Cam-Kayla and Tevin-Kenya *both* being a match is only 9%. (I just tried to replicate the computations of this blog, so Alex feel free to confirm!).
DeleteYes, Cam-Kayla and Tevin-Kenya are both matched in 52/574 of the remaining possible matchings.
DeleteWhile 9% isn't very good, there probably isn't another "solution" that is significantly higher. It just means "the field" (only one pair being right or neither being right) represents more of the possibility space.
DeleteYup. If both presumed power couples are right, that also rules out Andrew/Lauren and Daniel/Samantha.
DeleteNo matter what, there are going to be a lot of upset people in that house.
Can someone please explain how Kayla and Brett are an inferred no match?
ReplyDeleteI am not sure if someone can walk through the steps, but an inferred no match essentially means that of the 574 combinations remaining, none of them contain Kayla and Brett as a match.
DeleteHere is how I proved it to myself:
Delete1) Start with the knowledge that Shamoy-Maria are a match and the assumption that Brett-Kayla are a match.
2) If you make a grid with the matchups from each week, you will see that we can eliminate any couple from week 4 other than these two pairings. We can also eliminate any time Kayla was paired with Cam, and any of Brett's other pairings. Also, eliminate Zak-Bria from week 1, based on this last week's truth booth.
3) From this most recent matching ceremony, there are now 6 pairings (Andrew-Lauren, Daniel-Samantha, Kwasi-Asia, Lewis-Bria, Moe-Jasmine, Tevin-Kenya) that are viable, and those 6 must account for 3 beams. There are 20 combinations.
4) If you make a table for each combination, use your assumption to try and determine who the beams were in ceremonies 1-5. You will find that none of the combinations will allow you to get the correct number of beams the previous weeks.
That is how you can show yourself. If you are asking Alex how it was determined, I'm guessing his math program did in seconds what took me my whole lunch break, and spat out a 0, and that is how it was inferred.
Production finally eases up on 100% Fate Button and that’s what we get?
ReplyDeleteWhat a mess of a cast!
Yeah, they did and they didn't. Moe's was always going to be irrelevant and production would have been fairly certain Brett would choose Cali. I think they just gave the impression that the decision was in the casts' hands but really the outcome was inevitable. It's so annoying that the producers have this huge power of control but they just set things up to be boring.
ReplyDeleteAt the risk of sounding obvious, getting the two power couples (Tevin/Kenya, Cam/Kayla) into the Truth Booth is the key.
ReplyDeleteIf those are both perfect matches, they represent the 2 unconfirmed beams during Matchups #1-3. That would would mean that every single other match from the first 3 ceremonies is wrong.
I thought that Asia took being called unattractive extremely well. That is rough...and on TV - ouch - Love the blog!!
ReplyDeleteThis is late but
ReplyDeleteI don't think Cam and Kayla are a match.
This is what I came up with
Maria & Shamoy (matchups 1-6)
Tevin & Kenya (1,2,3,5,6)
Cali & Thomas (2,4,5,6) (close 2 & 4)
Andrew & Lauren (1,3,6) - (close 1, 3 & 6)
Cam & Nutsa
Daniel & Bria (5) - (close 5)
Kwasi & Morgan
- (assuming every Fate Button had an outcome in the first 5 weeks)
Zak & Asia
Brett & Jasmine
Moe & Kayla
Lewis & Samantha
Now i messed up originally and made changes so this scenario was possible. I think a lot of couples aren't even close but one of the consistently matched up power couples in the truth booth would give some answers for sure.
2nd scenario
Maria & Shamoy (matchups 1-6)
Tevin & Kenya (1,2,3,5,6)
Cali & Thomas (2,4,5,6) (close 2 & 4)
Cam & Nutsa
Daniel & Bria (5) - (close 5)
- with Brett/Morgan as a match (Andrew/Lauren no match)
Kwasi/Sam
Lewis/Asia (3) - (close 3)
Moe/Jasmine (1,6) - (close 1 & 6)
Andrew/Kayla
Zak/Lauren
My B scenario seems more unlikely but it's possible still I do believe.
B would be rough for Asia after Lewis said he wasn't attracted to her.
Delete