Season 7, Episodes 7 & 8 Probabilities - Live Blog

Another double episode tonight.

10:09: Lauren getting her first bit of substantial screen time, with Andrew, who immediately compares her... to his mom.

10:19: Some of the new couples are Cam and Cali, Nutsa and Brett. The producers seem to have gotten used to using Lewis for talking heads, but always about others and never himself.

10:20: Kayla is very sad now.

10:30: Samantha does the Fate Button, which brings up Zak and Daniel.

10:34: Asia and Bria get picked by the Fate Button... pretty much everyone wants to send Bria and Zak to the Truth Booth, right?

10:38: Kwasi starts working on Kayla...

10:42: Daniel and Samantha sneak off to the Boom Boom Room.

10:47: Even Daniel knows that he and Asia are the side show on this date.

10:51: Zak and Bria try to reconnect... in case they are a match... and Bria continues to shit-talk Morgan.

Truth Booth #5

11:01: Zak and Bria, of course.

11:07: No match. Zak is pretending to be caught off guard. Bria is crushed. 11,562 possibilities remaining.

	Andrew	Brett	Cam	Daniel	Kwasi	Lewis	Moe	Shamoy	Tevin	Tomas	Zak
Asia	X	14.3%	9.4%	9.7%	12.7%	12.1%	11.4%	X	7.1%	11.2%	11.9%
Bria	11.5%	10.2%	7.5%	10.2%	12.7%	10.9%	15.9%	X	6.9%	14.1%	X
Cali	9.3%	22.5%	6.3%	8.7%	9.2%	8.5%	8.7%	X	5.9%	10.3%	10.6%
Jasmine	10.3%	9.4%	6.8%	9.3%	10.3%	14.2%	11.5%	X	7.1%	9.9%	11.2%
Kayla	6.9%	7.3%	40.2%	6.6%	7.0%	6.7%	6.8%	X	3.7%	7.0%	7.8%
Kenya	7.0%	X	3.9%	6.4%	7.2%	8.2%	7.0%	X	45.1%	7.3%	7.9%
Lauren	23.6%	8.3%	5.9%	9.4%	11.3%	8.7%	8.3%	X	5.5%	9.1%	10.0%
Maria	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X
Morgan	11.5%	9.5%	6.9%	9.4%	10.3%	9.9%	10.2%	X	6.6%	11.9%	13.8%
Nutsa	10.3%	9.1%	6.4%	21.0%	9.1%	9.2%	9.0%	X	5.9%	9.5%	10.5%
Samantha	9.7%	9.4%	6.6%	9.2%	10.2%	11.5%	11.3%	X	6.2%	9.7%	16.2%

11:09: A lot of the guys are laughing at Bria but they either gotta get with Bria or not get the $1M prize.

11:11: Bria starts coming after Kwasi. Cali commiserating with Morgan about Bria's "love" ... but isn't it more obsession? Zak in disbelief that he was voted into the Truth Booth... really dude?

11:14: The house is steaming... Morgan getting ready to get drunk. Asia and Kenya teaming up against Nutsa.

11:21: Moe checks in on Asia! Are they a match???

11:30: Blah blah blah more Bria and Zak drama resulting in Morgan and Zak in the boom boom room.

11:32: Cali and Tomas, who's gotten very little screen time this season.

Matchup Ceremony #5

11:41: Jasmine scolds Asia for being mad at Nutsa, when Nutsa is trying to find new matches and Asia is just trying the same old thing.

11:47: Cam gets to pick his girl before Kwasi does, so Kayla goes with him. He seems caught off guard by

• Tevin - Kenya (repeat from ceremonies 1, 2, and 3)
• Tomas - Cali (repeat from ceremonies 2 and 4)
• Lewis - Lauren
• Moe - Asia
• Brett - Nutsa
• Zak - Morgan (repeat from ceremonies 3 and 4)
• Cam - Kayla (repeat from ceremonies 1, 2, and 3)
• Kwasi - Jasmine (repeat from ceremony 3)
• Andrew - Samantha
• Daniel - Bria

Blackout probabilities:  8.5% (985 of 11,562)
Instant win possible: No (more than 3 couples repeated from ceremony 2)
Maximum number of lights:  7
Most likely number of lights:  2

11:51: 4 beams! That means 1,696 combinations are left.

	Andrew	Brett	Cam	Daniel	Kwasi	Lewis	Moe	Shamoy	Tevin	Tomas	Zak
Asia	X	10.6%	6.1%	7.5%	14.0%	3.9%	30.0%	X	5.1%	12.3%	10.7%
Bria	13.3%	13.6%	6.6%	24.5%	8.7%	14.0%	9.2%	X	5.8%	4.3%	X
Cali	11.5%	10.1%	5.0%	8.7%	9.3%	10.5%	9.0%	X	4.6%	22.5%	8.8%
Jasmine	11.3%	11.4%	6.0%	8.7%	17.0%	8.3%	11.6%	X	4.0%	10.6%	11.2%
Kayla	7.0%	4.2%	52.1%	6.8%	6.0%	5.7%	5.2%	X	1.1%	5.0%	6.9%
Kenya	6.9%	X	1.1%	6.4%	5.8%	4.2%	5.1%	X	59.3%	5.0%	6.2%
Lauren	14.2%	9.8%	6.2%	7.0%	8.9%	21.8%	6.9%	X	5.2%	10.6%	9.3%
Maria	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X
Morgan	5.2%	8.8%	5.1%	9.1%	10.6%	10.1%	9.1%	X	4.5%	9.3%	28.2%
Nutsa	7.2%	21.3%	6.0%	16.3%	8.0%	8.5%	6.0%	X	5.4%	10.4%	11.0%
Samantha	23.5%	10.1%	5.9%	5.0%	11.7%	13.1%	8.0%	X	5.0%	10.1%	7.7%

11:52: House is feeling good... the buzz seems to be going. They decide to play flip cup. Lewis pushes Tomas and Cali to the boom boom room.

11:53: Oh nooo... performance anxiety for Tomas.

12:00: Cam being super manipulative with Kayla and can't seem to find another girl. Really, really insecure right now.

12:03: Looks like Kwasi getting wound up about Cam... and he goes in for the shove!

The rest of the season preview shows a more aggressive house than we're used to. Kenya and Tevin go to the Truth Booth... we get to 10 matchup ceremonies (which means they're looking for a long season with only 5 matchup ceremonies in 8 episodes)... and Maria and Shamoy get disrupted a bit???