Monday, July 25, 2016

Season 4, Episode 6 Probabilities - Live Blog

Welcome back Nicole! We're down to 21 combinations. Let's get to it.

10:01 - Oh man, they are going to throw a challenge to get Sam and Alyssa in the truth booth! Now we're talking!

10:04 - The moms are here! (via screen) Some of these guys looks pretty nervous about this.

10:05 - Looks like this is going to be a hard challenge to throw... It's like a camera crew caught their conversation planning to let Sam and Alyssa win... oh wait

10:07 - I was hoping these moms would have more dirt on their sons. Alright, Emma secures getaway date #1... my guess is she picks John (19%).

10:14 - Alyssa wins the 2nd getaway date and picks Sam (85.7%).

10:16 - Camille thinks Asaf is a great guy??? Oye vey...and she admits to being super desperate

10:18 - Gio thinks Julia is his match (28.6%), but is all over Asaf's sloppy seconds with Francesca (19%)

10:19 - PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT: Gio is not about foreplay. Ladies, I repeat, Gio is not about foreplay

10:25 - Emma and John are being all flirty even though she does have the same "features" as Julia

10:28 - Sam and Alyssa are off to the Truth Booth...this seems like a slam dunk.

Truth Booth

Alyssa and Sam... perfect match!

AsafCamCameronGiovanniJohnMorganProsperSamStephenTyler
AlyssaXXXXXXXMatchXX
Camille94.4%XXXXXXXX5.6%
EmmaX11.1%X5.6%22.2%5.6%27.8%X11.1%16.7%
FrancescaX11.1%X22.2%16.7%22.2%5.6%XX22.2%
JuliaX22.2%X33.3%X16.7%11.1%X11.1%5.6%
Kaylen5.6%16.7%XX16.7%5.6%16.7%X16.7%22.2%
MikalaXXMatchXXXXXXX
NicoleX5.6%X5.6%22.2%22.2%27.8%X16.7%X
ToriX11.1%X16.7%5.6%16.7%XX27.8%22.2%
VictoriaX22.2%X16.7%16.7%11.1%11.1%X16.7%5.6%

18 possible combinations remain.

10:33 - Asaf is such a good friend by giving Sam the boom boom room

10:34 - Tori is really good at getting to know these guys.

10:35 - Gio is the smartest guy in the house??? #respectthetruealpha

10:41 - Sam ready to make a baby.

10:48 - HOLD UP - Kaylen is going to tell Francesca what's up

10:54 - Asaf plays by his own rules and chooses with his heart (and just his heart... nothing else)

Matchup Ceremony
  • John - Emma (repeat from episode 1)
  • Cam - Victoria (repeat from episode 1)
  • Morgan - Tori (repeat from episode 4)
  • Stephen - Julia (repeat from episode 4)
  • Giovanni - Francesca (repeat from episode 5)
  • Prosper - Kaylen
  • Tyler - Nicole (inferred no match)
  • Asaf - Camille (repeat from episodes 4, 5)
Blackout odds: 0% (Each of the 18 remaining combinations contain at least one of the matches above).
Instant win possible: No, as Tyler and Nicole are not a match
Maximum possible number of lights: 7
Most likely number of lights: 4

4 perfect matches leave just 8 possibilities, but no new matches.

AsafCamCameronGiovanniJohnMorganProsperSamStephenTyler
AlyssaXXXXXXXMatchXX
Camille87.5%XXXXXXXX12.5%
EmmaX12.5%X12.5%37.5%12.5%25.0%XXX
FrancescaX12.5%X12.5%12.5%37.5%XXX25.0%
JuliaX25.0%X62.5%XXXX12.5%X
Kaylen12.5%25.0%XXXX12.5%X12.5%37.5%
MikalaXXMatchXXXXXXX
NicoleXXXX25.0%25.0%37.5%X12.5%X
ToriXXX12.5%12.5%12.5%XX37.5%25.0%
VictoriaX25.0%XX12.5%12.5%25.0%X25.0%X

Here they are:
  1. Camille - Tyler, Emma - Prosper, Francesca - Giovanni, Julia - Cam, Kaylen - Asaf, Nicole - Stephen, Tori - Morgan, Victoria - John
  2. Camille - Asaf, Emma - Morgan, Francesca - John, Julia - Giovanni, Kaylen - Tyler, Nicole - Prosper, Tori - Stephen, Victoria - Cam
  3. Camille - Asaf, Emma - Prosper, Francesca - Tyler, Julia - Giovanni, Kaylen - Stephen, Nicole - Morgan, Tori - John, Victoria - Cam
  4. Camille - Asaf, Emma - John, Francesca - Tyler, Julia - Giovanni, Kaylen - Cam, Nicole - Morgan, Tori - Stephen, Victoria - Prosper
  5. Camille - Asaf, Emma - Giovanni, Francesca - Morgan, Julia - Stephen, Kaylen - Cam, Nicole - John, Tori - Tyler, Victoria - Prosper
  6. Camille - Asaf, Emma - John, Francesca - Cam, Julia - Giovanni, Kaylen - Tyler, Nicole - Prosper, Tori - Stephen, Victoria - Morgan
  7. Camille - Asaf, Emma - Cam, Francesca - Morgan, Julia - Giovanni, Kaylen - Prosper, Nicole - John, Tori - Tyler, Victoria - Stephen
  8. Camille - Asaf, Emma - John, Francesca - Morgan, Julia - Cam, Kaylen - Tyler, Nicole - Prosper, Tori - Giovanni, Victoria - Stephen

Monday, July 18, 2016

Season 4, Episode 5 Probabilities - Live Blog

Please welcome back guest blogger Nicole!

Quick recap of last week:

  • The group still only has 1 confirmed perfect match
  • We've confirmed Asaf is a d-bag
  • Gio is no longer ring shopping for Kaylen
  • Every dude loves Julia
  • There were 4 beams of light at the last match up ceremony

10:02 - Stephen is clearly over Gio's drama.

10:03 - Tori and Morgan (19.6%) are my heroes for their little late night make over for John

10:05 - I wonder what Julia considers "cheesy."

10:06 - Challenge time!!! Ryan is busting out the beer goggles... which are probably necessary since these kids probably don't know how to operate sober.

10:08 - Finishing order is Stephen, Prosper, Gio, and Morgan....but it's all about how many you got right.

10:13 - Prosper and Gio advance. Prosper picks Nicole (18.7%) and Gio brings Kaylen (66.7%). I WONDER WHO THE GROUP WILL VOTE IN?!?!?!?!

10:14 - Morgan is licking whipped cream off Tori's foot. Somewhat disturbing and gross.

10:15 - Victoria says she is excited to have Cam (10.5%) be aggressive, but she doesn't look that excited.

10:21 - Cam has "no idea" that Victoria and him hooked up. How does one not remember that? Come on now.

10:23 - This date looks AMAZING.

10:25 -  Kaylen is speaking some real truth right now and OMG THEY ONLY HAVE KNOWN EACH OTHER FOR A WEEK AND A HALF?!?!?!?!

10:26 - Gio is convinced that Julia is his match, but odds are not in their favor.

Truth Booth

10:28 - Gio and Kaylen to the Truth Booth....shocking. Kaylen is clearly elated to be there; Gio not so much.

10:32 - THEY AREN'T A MATCH!!!! Woah. Kaylen is taking this MUCH better than I would have thought. This leaves 73 combinations. Most notably, Alyssa-Sam and Camille-Asaf are extremely likely at this point. Could have an inferred perfect match later in the episode...

AsafCamCameronGiovanniJohnMorganProsperSamStephenTyler
AlyssaX1.4%X2.7%XXX95.9%XX
Camille80.8%XX5.5%X2.7%5.5%X1.4%4.1%
Emma1.4%12.3%X15.1%15.1%9.6%32.9%X5.5%8.2%
Francesca11.0%5.5%X9.6%13.7%16.4%12.3%X6.8%24.7%
JuliaX32.9%X20.5%X15.1%9.6%X17.8%4.1%
Kaylen5.5%13.7%XX19.2%13.7%15.1%2.7%16.4%13.7%
MikalaXXMatchXXXXXXX
Nicole1.4%6.8%X20.5%11.0%16.4%17.8%X15.1%11.0%
ToriX6.8%X13.7%8.2%17.8%X1.4%30.1%21.9%
VictoriaX20.5%X12.3%32.9%8.2%6.8%X6.8%12.3%


10:33 - And what are the odds of Gio having a threesome? I can confidently say 0%.

10:35 - Within 2 minutes, Gio has successfully turned off Kaylen, Camille, Francesca, and Tori. That leaves him with 5 girls for that threesome.

10:39 - Tori is taking the reins here on devising a strategy...not sure if I agree with it, but at least it's a plan

10:40 - Guys, words are super cool

10:45 - Victoria picks Prosper... which messes up the plan Tori tried to put in place and then Prosper proceeds to crush Nicole's heart.

10:54 - Gio continues his mission to turn off every single girl in the house by commenting on Camille's nipples. Good work, dude.

Matchup Ceremony
  • Emma - Cam (repeat from episode 4)
  • Victoria - Prosper
  • Kaylen - Tyler
  • Nicole - Stephen (repeat from episode 1)
  • Camille - Asaf (repeat from episode 4)
  • Alyssa - Sam (repeat from episodes 1, 3, 4)
  • Julia - Morgan (repeat from episode 1)
  • Tori - John
  • Francesca - Giovanni
Blackout odds: 0% (Each of the 73 remaining combinations contain at least one of the matches above).
Instant win possible: No, as they could only repeat 2 matchups from episode 1.
Maximum possible number of lights: 7
Most likely number of lights: 3

10:56 - Keeping Alyssa and Sam together is the big reason they're guaranteed not to blackout.

4 lights means 21 combinations remain.

AsafCamCameronGiovanniJohnMorganProsperSamStephenTyler
AlyssaX4.8%X9.5%XXX85.7%XX
Camille95.2%XXXXXXXX4.8%
EmmaX9.5%X4.8%19.0%4.8%38.1%X9.5%14.3%
FrancescaX9.5%X19.0%14.3%19.0%4.8%XX33.3%
JuliaX19.0%X28.6%X28.6%9.5%X9.5%4.8%
Kaylen4.8%19.0%XX14.3%4.8%14.3%9.5%14.3%19.0%
MikalaXXMatchXXXXXXX
NicoleX4.8%X4.8%19.0%19.0%23.8%X28.6%X
ToriX14.3%X19.0%4.8%14.3%X4.8%23.8%19.0%
VictoriaX19.0%X14.3%28.6%9.5%9.5%X14.3%4.8%


Those 21 combinations below the jump...

Monday, July 11, 2016

Season 4, Episode 4 Probabilities - Live Blog

Due to technical difficulties on my end, please welcome my friend Nicole who did the guest blog this week!

10:03 - ooooo Gio is in TROUBLE...the Kaylen/Gio honeymoon is over. Guys, here is the lesson: if you're in a committed relationship of 3 days, don't throw pie at other girls

10:07 - Gio decides Making up in the boom boom room is the best thing...good call...

10:08 - What girl wouldn't like a guy that eats food off her butt? That's a real man

POOPED HIS PANTS TWICE IN THE PAST 5 YEARS!!!  WHAT?!?!?! ARE YOU KIDDING ME???

10:10 - These guys are gross.  So, so gross.

Challenge winners is Emma! She gets to pick the dates? Interesting...
Emma goes with Stephen...he pooped his pants (twice) and only a 7.2%
She chooses Morgan for Julia. Morgan's pumped (actually the best choice at 18.5%)
Tori and Asaf...not shocking. Probably not a match (only 9.1%)

10:18 - Boys night...Gio is in trouble and confused about his ENTIRE life right now.

10:20 - Trojan product placement...nicely done.


10:26 - Oh Tori, Tori, Tori...you are going to be so sad when he tells you he did Francesca (sponsored by Trojan)

10:27 - ....and Tori is upset. Not shocking. It's OK, Tori he won't be your match.

10:30 - Ryan rubbing salt into Kaylen's wounds by checking in with the house's 'Solid couple.' Burnnnnnn

10:30 - But Kaylen and Gio have taken a sudden turn for the worse!

10:33 - Asaf and Tori are off to the truth booth....

Truth Booth

10:36: NOT A MATCH!! This leaves 1,153 possible combinations.

AsafCamCameronGiovanniJohnMorganProsperSamStephenTyler
Alyssa8.6%9.1%X3.8%10.2%4.2%8.6%38.2%7.2%10.0%
Camille33.4%8.4%X5.2%9.3%8.7%11.7%7.8%6.7%8.8%
Emma8.3%7.6%X4.2%14.1%8.9%34.4%7.5%6.5%8.3%
Francesca16.2%10.6%X5.4%12.7%23.3%10.6%3.3%8.0%9.9%
Julia10.6%9.4%X6.6%X18.5%11.6%10.6%9.9%22.9%
Kaylen4.7%5.4%X59.4%6.9%5.0%5.0%4.1%3.8%5.6%
MikalaXXMatchXXXXXXX
Nicole8.9%23.0%X5.7%8.7%11.4%9.3%9.5%10.9%12.6%
ToriX9.9%X4.4%12.2%9.7%X10.0%39.5%14.2%
Victoria9.3%16.7%X5.3%25.8%10.1%8.8%9.0%7.5%7.6%

10:38 - Stephen is all about Julia.  Julia, look out, he pooped his pants....twice

10:40 - Gio is all about Julia (6.6%), not Kaylen (59.4%)

10:44 - Since when are bralettes a replacement for a shirt??

Matchup Ceremony
  • Morgan - Tori
  • Prosper - Nicole
  • Asaf - Camille (repeat from episodes 2 and 3)
  • John - Victoria (repeat from episode 3)
  • Giovanni - Kaylen (repeat from episodes 1-3)
  • Stephen - Julia
  • Tyler - Francesca
  • Sam - Alyssa (repeat from episodes 1 and 3)
  • Cam - Emma

Blackout odds: 2.8% (32 possible blackout combinations of 1,153 remaining).
Instant win possible: No, as they could only repeat 2 matchups from episode 2
Maximum possible number of lights: 8, which would reveal the winning combination.
Most likely number of lights: 3

4 lights mean 219 combinations remain.

AsafCamCameronGiovanniJohnMorganProsperSamStephenTyler
Alyssa5.0%10.0%X0.9%5.0%2.7%9.1%49.8%6.8%10.5%
Camille53.9%6.8%X1.8%3.7%7.8%5.9%6.4%4.6%9.1%
Emma7.3%14.2%X5.0%11.9%9.6%24.2%7.3%12.3%8.2%
Francesca13.2%13.2%X3.2%13.7%15.1%14.2%2.3%7.8%17.4%
Julia8.7%13.7%X6.8%X15.5%13.7%9.1%19.2%13.2%
Kaylen1.8%4.6%X66.7%6.4%4.6%5.0%0.9%5.5%4.6%
MikalaXXMatchXXXXXXX
Nicole5.9%13.2%X6.8%5.9%14.6%18.7%9.6%11.0%14.2%
ToriX13.7%X4.6%12.8%19.6%X10.5%23.3%15.5%
Victoria4.1%10.5%X4.1%40.6%10.5%9.1%4.1%9.6%7.3%