10:01 - Oh man, they are going to throw a challenge to get Sam and Alyssa in the truth booth! Now we're talking!
10:04 - The moms are here! (via screen) Some of these guys looks pretty nervous about this.
10:05 - Looks like this is going to be a hard challenge to throw... It's like a camera crew caught their conversation planning to let Sam and Alyssa win... oh wait
10:07 - I was hoping these moms would have more dirt on their sons. Alright, Emma secures getaway date #1... my guess is she picks John (19%).
10:14 - Alyssa wins the 2nd getaway date and picks Sam (85.7%).
10:16 - Camille thinks Asaf is a great guy??? Oye vey...and she admits to being super desperate
10:18 - Gio thinks Julia is his match (28.6%), but is all over Asaf's sloppy seconds with Francesca (19%)
10:19 - PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT: Gio is not about foreplay. Ladies, I repeat, Gio is not about foreplay
10:25 - Emma and John are being all flirty even though she does have the same "features" as Julia
10:28 - Sam and Alyssa are off to the Truth Booth...this seems like a slam dunk.
Alyssa and Sam... perfect match!
| Asaf | Cam | Cameron | Giovanni | John | Morgan | Prosper | Sam | Stephen | Tyler | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alyssa | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | Match | X | X |
| Camille | 94.4% | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 5.6% |
| Emma | X | 11.1% | X | 5.6% | 22.2% | 5.6% | 27.8% | X | 11.1% | 16.7% |
| Francesca | X | 11.1% | X | 22.2% | 16.7% | 22.2% | 5.6% | X | X | 22.2% |
| Julia | X | 22.2% | X | 33.3% | X | 16.7% | 11.1% | X | 11.1% | 5.6% |
| Kaylen | 5.6% | 16.7% | X | X | 16.7% | 5.6% | 16.7% | X | 16.7% | 22.2% |
| Mikala | X | X | Match | X | X | X | X | X | X | X |
| Nicole | X | 5.6% | X | 5.6% | 22.2% | 22.2% | 27.8% | X | 16.7% | X |
| Tori | X | 11.1% | X | 16.7% | 5.6% | 16.7% | X | X | 27.8% | 22.2% |
| Victoria | X | 22.2% | X | 16.7% | 16.7% | 11.1% | 11.1% | X | 16.7% | 5.6% |
18 possible combinations remain.
10:33 - Asaf is such a good friend by giving Sam the boom boom room
10:34 - Tori is really good at getting to know these guys.
10:35 - Gio is the smartest guy in the house??? #respectthetruealpha
10:41 - Sam ready to make a baby.
10:48 - HOLD UP - Kaylen is going to tell Francesca what's up
10:54 - Asaf plays by his own rules and chooses with his heart (and just his heart... nothing else)
Matchup Ceremony
- John - Emma (repeat from episode 1)
- Cam - Victoria (repeat from episode 1)
- Morgan - Tori (repeat from episode 4)
- Stephen - Julia (repeat from episode 4)
- Giovanni - Francesca (repeat from episode 5)
- Prosper - Kaylen
- Tyler - Nicole (inferred no match)
- Asaf - Camille (repeat from episodes 4, 5)
Instant win possible: No, as Tyler and Nicole are not a match
Maximum possible number of lights: 7
Most likely number of lights: 4
4 perfect matches leave just 8 possibilities, but no new matches.
| Asaf | Cam | Cameron | Giovanni | John | Morgan | Prosper | Sam | Stephen | Tyler | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alyssa | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | Match | X | X |
| Camille | 87.5% | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 12.5% |
| Emma | X | 12.5% | X | 12.5% | 37.5% | 12.5% | 25.0% | X | X | X |
| Francesca | X | 12.5% | X | 12.5% | 12.5% | 37.5% | X | X | X | 25.0% |
| Julia | X | 25.0% | X | 62.5% | X | X | X | X | 12.5% | X |
| Kaylen | 12.5% | 25.0% | X | X | X | X | 12.5% | X | 12.5% | 37.5% |
| Mikala | X | X | Match | X | X | X | X | X | X | X |
| Nicole | X | X | X | X | 25.0% | 25.0% | 37.5% | X | 12.5% | X |
| Tori | X | X | X | 12.5% | 12.5% | 12.5% | X | X | 37.5% | 25.0% |
| Victoria | X | 25.0% | X | X | 12.5% | 12.5% | 25.0% | X | 25.0% | X |
Here they are:
- Camille - Tyler, Emma - Prosper, Francesca - Giovanni, Julia - Cam, Kaylen - Asaf, Nicole - Stephen, Tori - Morgan, Victoria - John
- Camille - Asaf, Emma - Morgan, Francesca - John, Julia - Giovanni, Kaylen - Tyler, Nicole - Prosper, Tori - Stephen, Victoria - Cam
- Camille - Asaf, Emma - Prosper, Francesca - Tyler, Julia - Giovanni, Kaylen - Stephen, Nicole - Morgan, Tori - John, Victoria - Cam
- Camille - Asaf, Emma - John, Francesca - Tyler, Julia - Giovanni, Kaylen - Cam, Nicole - Morgan, Tori - Stephen, Victoria - Prosper
- Camille - Asaf, Emma - Giovanni, Francesca - Morgan, Julia - Stephen, Kaylen - Cam, Nicole - John, Tori - Tyler, Victoria - Prosper
- Camille - Asaf, Emma - John, Francesca - Cam, Julia - Giovanni, Kaylen - Tyler, Nicole - Prosper, Tori - Stephen, Victoria - Morgan
- Camille - Asaf, Emma - Cam, Francesca - Morgan, Julia - Giovanni, Kaylen - Prosper, Nicole - John, Tori - Tyler, Victoria - Stephen
- Camille - Asaf, Emma - John, Francesca - Morgan, Julia - Cam, Kaylen - Tyler, Nicole - Prosper, Tori - Giovanni, Victoria - Stephen
Francesca seems like such a sweetheart, what is she don't with these douchebags?
ReplyDeleteia! i think people are being really unfair on her, i think she was on the money when she said that kaylen was taking her frustration of gio out on her
Deletei'm starting to dislike kaylen. she talks a big talk about how she is so mature and constantly bettering herself but her treatment of francesca and julia suggests otherwise.
Kaylen did say on the AYTO snapchat over the weekend that she was appalled by her own behavior on last night's episode. She attempted to explain her behavior and apologize for it. So I give her some credit there.
DeleteWhen Asaf knows you can do better, you can do better. Last week I wasn't sure who was the biggest douche, now I KNOW it's Gio. What an ass.
ReplyDeleteI think it's very interesting that past Camille and Asaf being an almost guaranteed match, we can't really infer much else at this point.
ReplyDeleteKaylen needs to chill out. She didn't call her a little girl until the match up ceremony, and she clearly wasn't saying it in a good way. She's one of my favorites but she's really being unfair here.
ReplyDeleteShe did call her a little girl at the truth booth
DeleteAsaf it is not mathematically possible that Francesca is your match. It is however almost solely mathematically possible that Camille is. STOP BEING FUCKING STUPID.
ReplyDeleteI ship Julia and Gio. lol
ReplyDeleteSAME
DeleteI would too, but I don't want him to be right haha!!
DeleteGuys, he's "smarter then everyone" so of course he's right. Hahaha but actually we are all gonna face-palm when he screams I told you so.
DeleteSomeone tell me how many beams they got please
ReplyDelete4
DeleteIncluding the perfect matches?
DeleteYes
Delete2 beams have to be Asaf/Camille and Emma/John?
ReplyDeleteI think Tori and Morgan.
Deleteno way, tori/morgan, gio/francescia option 1 is the only one that makes sense. We haven't even seen asaf make a connection with camille they just like to make out and she is obsessed with him liking her.
DeletePraying Stephan and Julia and Asaf and Camile. John cheats on her next episode she doesn't deserve that again.
DeleteWe haven't seen him make aby connection with Kaylen at all and he and Camille mathematically make sense. Plus they seem to complement each other.
DeleteI'm convinced tori and Stephen are a match.
DeleteHow was the maximum possible 4 but the most likely 7?
ReplyDeleteHe mixed up the numbers. Obviously.
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DeleteI really can't stand Julia
ReplyDelete#4 or #6 is my best guesses.
ReplyDeleteI'm still praying Stephan and Julia are a match. Sorry I'm 'that' person
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ReplyDelete3
ReplyDeleteMy guess is #2 or #3
ReplyDeleteCamille and Asaf for sure. Tyler and Kaylen. Francesca and Morgan. John and Emma. Gio and Julia (they deserve each other) Nicole and Prosper. Tori & Stephen. And I guess that only leaves Victoria and Cam. (Not sure if all of these are possibilities but based on personalities that's who I'm thinking.
ReplyDeleteThis is my #1 possibility too
DeleteThat can't be because they only got 2 beams tonight besides the 2 perfect matches. Three of the couples you named were paired up tonight, Camille and Asaf, John and Emma and Cam and Victoria. One of them can't be a match.
DeleteNext week they need to put Victoria and Cam or Asaf and Camille in the truth booth. Then you would be able to figure out the beams from week 1 or 2 and also figure out who isn't a match since they only got 3 both of those weeks.
ReplyDeleteNext week's episode looks crazy!!! Looks like gio throws a punch and Ryan is NOOOOTTTTT having it XD
ReplyDeleteWhy are Nicole and Tyler not a match?
ReplyDeleteIts possible but very unlikely when all match up ceremonies are considered
DeleteI believe the 2 beams were Camille/Asaf and Victoria/Cam
ReplyDeleteMathematically why can't Tyler and Nicole be a match?
ReplyDelete1 couple from weeks 1 & 2, respectively, are perfect matches. 2 unknown couples from weeks 3-6 are matches. The match unknown from W1 is unique from the unknown match from W2. That makes 4 pairings that we have seen that are perfect matches. Now, add in information gleaned from subsequent weeks. All these matchup ceremonies act as rules. With the information, it is impossible for N-T to be a match without the beams in prior ceremonies being incorrect. Since the rules cannot be violated, T-N cannot be a permutation as it would force a confirmed no match to be a couple. Try to create a scenario where Tyler and Nicole are a match without violating the rules created by previous ceremonies. You can't. Look at who can't be a match if T-N is a pairing. You'll see that confirmed no-matches are paired where T-N is a match. Namely, since Tori-Prosper are a confirmed no match, the pairing of T-N becomes implausible. Add the other rules, and you'll see that it is impossible.
DeleteThat makes a lot of sense. Thanks for explaining it for me!!
DeleteI'm missing something. Why are you saying that 1 couple from Weeks 1 & 2, respectively, are perfect matches? I get that there is 1 for sure from Week 1, because they got 3 lights and Sam/Alyssa & Cameron/Mikala were paired with each other on Week 1.
DeleteBut I can't find another match that we know for sure in Week 2 other than Cameron & Mikala, as Sam & Alyssa sat with different people. (Unless you are taking Asaf & Camille as a sure thing, which although they are statistically the most likely, are not for certain a match).
It would appear that we have 2 unconfirmed matches from Week 2, not 1. Saying that, your logic makes sense, I just don't think anyone can put in words, without using a computer, why specific combinations aren't a match.
Operating on the assumption that Victoria and Morgan are not a match (blackout teaser), that Camille and Asaf are a match, and that Francesca and Tyler (Can't tell which one it is but the hair looks like Tyler) are a no match (blackout teaser), permutations 5 or 7 seem the most probable.
ReplyDeleteIn the teaser, I'm 99% sure Francesca is sitting with Prosper, who isn't matched with her in any of the final 8 choices.
DeleteNext week's episode looks crazy!!! Looks like gio throws a punch and Ryan is NOOOOTTTTT having it XD
ReplyDeleteI'm convinced that the 10 perfect matches are Alyssa-Sam
ReplyDeleteCamille-Asaf
Cam-Francesca
Julia-Gio
Kaylen-Tyler
Mikala-Cameron
Nicole-prosper
Tori-Stephen
I missed Emma-John and Victoria-Morgan my phone glitched out!
Delete#3 isn't possible I thought Kay and Steph were the first people to go in the truth booth for the "love at first sight" and they got no match
ReplyDeletenope that was tori and prosper
Delete#6 was the one I worked out it would be
ReplyDeleteDid anyone else notice the little head bob that Julia did to avoid Stephen when he picked her and went in for a hug and a kiss?
ReplyDeleteI mean we are on week 6 already, and it doesn't look like Stephen has even gotten to first base. While I would agree that he has made the largest "connection" with Julia, he appears so deep inside the friend zone I would seriously doubt that the two would be anything but "good friends" after the show. ("Good Friends" is how the guy/girl who is not attracted to the other person describes their relationship. ;-)
Julia has a boyfriend of almost a year now and it's nobody from the show. It's on her Instagram
Delete@Ashely If that's true that's super irritating. Why would MTV even have her on the show if she's not eligible? That would be like inviting people on the Challenge, who are going to give up and go home after the first sign of adversity?!? (Oh wait, they already did that by inviting Brandon to "compete" and having him leave because none of the other girls could compare with his girlfriend back home. WTF?!? What does that have to do with anything? :-)
DeleteIt has to be filmed in advance so Julia's match is probably Gio and that explains why she is now dating someone else lol I am surprised that MTV let's them post anything that could ruin any of the episode outcomes before the episodes air.
DeleteI'm fascinated with this season, finding this blog has just fuelled my curiosity in working out who the matches are! It's so cool to have the computer do the work and give you the inside information! The cast obviously has no idea they have narrowed it down to only 8 possibilities. With this information in 4 truth booths and 4 cermonies it would seem almost impossible not to win....
ReplyDeleteFrom the teaser it again looks like the blackout will not be next week (episode 7) so that leaves only episode ,8 9 or the even last episode. That would be real twist if they blackout on the final ceremony!!
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ReplyDeletePerfect Matches are....
ReplyDelete1.Camille-Asaf
2.Cam-Francesca
3.Julia-Tyler
4.Kaylen-John
5.Mikala-Cameron
6.Nicole-Stephen
7.Tori-Morgan
8.Emma-Prosper
9.Sam-Alyssa
10.Victoria-Giovionni
Julia and Tyler cannot be a match.
DeleteKaylen and John cannot be a match.
And Victoria and Giovanni cannot be a match.
Wow. It's like you picked the people least likely to be matches and threw them all together. ;-)
DeleteI don't think Julia and Tyler even know each other's names.
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ReplyDeleteI think scenario 8 makes the most sense because Francesca said in an interview that her match was someone she felt that she would normally go for rather then what she
ReplyDeleteneeded, and the only person to get offended
by that comment was Morgan. His offense to that comment makes me think that his match is Francessca, and 5,7,& 8 are the only scenarios where that is true. I also believe that Emma's match is either Prosper or John, so that only leaves scenario 8. I'm probably wrong, but I hope not.
I think scenario 1 or 8 make the most sense. I just don't see how Julia could be matched up with Gio... she's so out of his league it's ridiculous.
ReplyDeleteAm I missing something? I thought the only possibilities can be 1, 5 and 8 from the clip? It shows Gio and Julia in the Truth Booth and then only 2 lights are lit before starting when Ryan says it's the final match up. Does that not mean that Gio and Julia are not a perfect match?
ReplyDeleteI think the clip you mention shows two or more match up ceremonies spliced together (you have to look closely at ryan's shirt and compare with previous trailers!).
ReplyDeleteI dont think Gio and Julia are a match based on Stephen / Francesca's reaction but it could be interpreted either way.
Ah okay! Thanks for the reply! Yeah I don't think they are a match either.
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DeleteEmma and prosper are a match... I'm pretty sure about that. Which means either 1 or 3 are the only options. In the blackout trailer when Victoria is sitting with Morgan this cannot be the final match up unless emma and prosper are not a match because prosper is sitting with Fran (and from the newest promo we know emma and prosper go in the TB).
ReplyDeleteIn the next episode with the fight Morgan and Tori are sitting together so this won't be a blackout ....unless they have 2 blackouts in a row! I think after prosper and emma get confirmed (my guess is this happens in EP 9) Morgan and Tori assume they aren't a match and don't sit together and this is when they black out ....IMHO. I think Julia and Gio go into the truth booth in the last episode and are confirmed a no match and that sets them up to win with option #1
Or that's my hope at least Torgan=PM
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ReplyDeleteI would love to indulge myself in this system. I can't quite grasp how the probabilities and so many X's there are without clarification. Like, for example, could anyone explain how Camille's only possibilities are Asaf and Tyler. If you don't want to share with the world, I'd be happy to discuss via email. My email is codyjones97@gmail.com. I'd also like to see how this computer system is set up. Thanks a bunch, Cody.
ReplyDeleteHas to be #6. Lights were John and Emma, Camille and Asaf. Kaylen and Tyler seem like they would be a great match. I saw in his application video he wanted someone confident and speaks her mind (hello kaylen) and in her video of describing her perfect match physically, she basically painted a picture of Tyler. The rest just totally make sense to me.
ReplyDeleteI wish they would intermingle more so we can see how they interact. A lot of these couples I haven't seen talk to each other.