Showing posts with label Perfect Matches Revealed. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Perfect Matches Revealed. Show all posts

Monday, September 9, 2019

Season 8, Episode 12 Probabilities - Live Blog

Last episode of the season. No reunion on the schedule. Gotta imagine they win it... right?

It's looking likely that this is the fourth house to go into the final matchup ceremony not knowing if they have the right combination or not.

11:09: The stragglers are pairing off. Justin and Amber trying each other out... Basit is frustrated with the stragglers.

11:14: This week's challenge is people going head-to-head on what they know of the other housemates' love languages. The winners are Kylie, Basit, and Kari, who pick Amber, Jonathan, and Max respectively. Kylie - Amber is a 25% match and Kari - Max are a 50% match.

The expected value for each of the two main couples is a 50% chance at winning the money. Take Kari and Max and you're guaranteed a 50% chance at the Matchup Ceremony. Take Kylie and Amber and you've got a 25% chance of winning in the Truth Booth, with a 1-in-3 chance of picking the right combination out of the remaining 3. Knowing the probabilities, I'd probably go with Kylie and Amber and hope for the sure bet...

11:23: Kari and Max trying to talk themselves into this coupling...

Truth Booth #10

It's Amber and Kylie...

11:30: No match. 3 possibilities left.

AashaAmberBasitBrandonDannyJasmineJennaJonathan
AashaXXXMatchXXXX
AmberXXXXXXXX
BasitXXXXXXXMatch
BrandonMatchXXXXXXX
DannyXXXXXXXX
JasmineXXXXXXXX
JennaXXXXXXXX
JonathanXXMatchXXXXX
JustinX33.3%XXXXXX
KaiXXXXMatchXXX
KariX33.3%XXXXXX
KylieXXXXXXXX
MaxXXXXXXXX
NourXXXXXMatchXX
PaigeXXXXXXMatchX
RemyX33.3%XXXXXX
JustinKaiKariKylieMaxNourPaigeRemy
AashaXXXXXXXX
Amber33.3%X33.3%XXXX33.3%
BasitXXXXXXXX
BrandonXXXXXXXX
DannyXMatchXXXXXX
JasmineXXXXXMatchXX
JennaXXXXXXMatchX
JonathanXXXXXXXX
JustinXXX33.3%XXX33.3%
KaiXXXXXXXX
KariXXXX66.7%XXX
Kylie33.3%XXX33.3%XX33.3%
MaxXX66.7%33.3%XXXX
NourXXXXXXXX
PaigeXXXXXXXX
Remy33.3%XX33.3%XXXX
  1. Amber-Justin Kari-Max Kylie-Remy
  2. Amber-Kari Justin-Remy Kylie-Max
  3. Amber-Remy Justin-Kylie Kari-Max
11:31: Season 3, the house went in with 4 combinations left and won. Season 5 they had 2 choices and lost. Season 7, 2 possibilities and win. A loss here could mean that, for the first time, the right perfect matches are unless MTV tells us.

11:31: Amber floats back to Justin. Max arguing for Kari. And that leaves Kylie and Remy?

11:33: Now Amber and Remy are talking themselves into each other... Justin feels out of the loop.

11:35: Amber, Kari, Kylie, Paige, Danny, and others go skinny-dipping. Max, Basit, and Jonathan opt out... Basit lays down an all-time meme with "this doesn't look sanitary at all" - can we GIF them??

11:40: Some pushing for Amber to go with Remy because of love over lust.

Matchup Ceremony #10

Here we go.
  • Danny - Kai (previously inferred perfect match)
  • Max - Kari
  • Amber - Remy
  • Basit - Jonathan (previously inferred perfect match)
  • Jenna - Paige (previously inferred perfect match)
  • Nour - Jasmine (previously inferred perfect match)
  • Justin - Kylie
Blackout probability: 0%
Instant win possible: Yes
Maximum number of lights: 8

11:43: Brandon gets a talking head!

11:50: Amber makes the call - going with Remy over Justin. Justin doesn't like it.

11:53: We'll know the final couples based on the number of beams.
  1. Amber-Justin Kari-Max Kylie-Remy - 6 beams
  2. Amber-Kari Justin-Remy Kylie-Max - 5 beams
  3. Amber-Remy Justin-Kylie Kari-Max - win

11:54: The 6th beam means Kari and Max are a match, and it's down to Amber's call.

11:59: And they win! $750,000 is the prize after one blackout.

12:02: Finally, Justin is thankful that Amber didn't pick him!
  • Basit - Jonathan (matchup ceremony #5)
  • Aasha - Brandon (truth booth #6)
  • Jasmine - Nour (truth booth #6)
  • Danny - Kai (matchup ceremony #8)
  • Jenna - Paige (matchup ceremony #8)
  • Kari - Max (truth booth #10)
  • Amber - Remy (truth booth #10)
  • Justin - Kylie (matchup ceremony #10)

No news on what or when the next season will be...

Thanks to everyone for following the blog!

Wednesday, November 7, 2018

Season 7, Episode 14 Probabilities - Live Blog

Let's get to it - the last matchup ceremony of the season (reunion next week). Can they win it tonight? Doesn't look good.

Truth Booth #10, continued

10:03: Nutsa and Brett are a perfect match! Two possibilities left.
  1. Asia - Kwasi, Bria - Tomas, Cali - Moe, Jasmine - Lewis, Kayla - Zak, Lauren - Daniel, Morgan - Cam, Nutsa - Brett, Samantha - Andrew
  2. Asia - Tomas, Bria - Cam, Cali - Andrew, Jasmine - Daniel, Kayla - Moe, Lauren - Kwasi, Morgan - Zak, Nutsa - Brett, Samantha - Lewis
AndrewBrettCamDanielKwasiLewisMoeShamoyTevinTomasZak
AsiaXXXX50.0%XXXX50.0%X
BriaXX50.0%XXXXXX50.0%X
Cali50.0%XXXXX50.0%XXXX
JasmineXXX50.0%X50.0%XXXXX
KaylaXXXXXX50.0%XXX50.0%
KenyaXXXXXXXXMatchXX
LaurenXXX50.0%50.0%XXXXXX
MariaXXXXXXXMatchXXX
MorganXX50.0%XXXXXXX50.0%
NutsaXMatchXXXXXXXXX
Samantha50.0%XXXX50.0%XXXXX


Brett talking the house out of sending them into Truth Booth #7 looks rough in retrospect.

10:03: Samantha is willing to go down with the ship with Daniel. And that would be a losing choice.

10:05: Cali seems to be talking herself into Andrew... Zak not sure about Morgan.

10:07: Asia running some speed dating right now... The speed dating seems to be centering on option 2 (last week's option 3)... showing Asia and Tomas, Lauren and Kwasi, and Bria and Cam.

10:09: They're doing the "stand together and rotate" exercise. Definitely the right strategy. Starting to hone in more on option 2...

10:10: As a reminder, if their memory is perfect, they should be able to work together to narrow it down to one of these two working combinations. If the 22 people each remember who they were sitting with during a given week, and how many beams they had each week... it's definitely easier than a single person trying to come up with the right answer.

10:11: Even more interesting... if they DO pick one of these two combinations... the last matchup ceremony will be either 3 beams (a blackout) or all 11 beams.

10:15: Strategically, Sam isn't wrong to want to push for another combination... but it seems like they got pretty conclusive

10:17: Asia and Bria decide to arm Kayla with the info that Cali and Dan kissed on the party night... and then... Moe steps in???? He offers to share the info!!

10:18: Moe goes in!!! Sam doesn't believe him!

10:22: Starting the matchup ceremony 22 minutes into an hour-long episode does NOT bode well for the house. What will you do with all the time? Just show them celebrating?

Matchup Ceremony #10

10:24: Andrew is already talking marriage. WOW.

10:26: It's not clear whether the house walked through Samantha and Daniel not being a match. Certainly, if they did... there's no possibility.

10:31: She picks Lewis. They're on the way.

10:32: Lauren wants Kwasi for his BBC. Kwasi wants Lauren because she's like his mom.
  • Cali - Andrew (repeat from ceremony 9)
  • Kayla - Moe (repeat from ceremonies 8 and 9)
  • Morgan - Zak (repeat from ceremonies 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7)
  • Samantha - Lewis (repeat from ceremony 1)
  • Jasmine - Daniel
  • Lauren - Kwasi (repeat from ceremony 2)
  • Asia - Tomas
  • Bria - Cam
10:33: So they pick option 2!! It's either 3 beams or 11 beams.

10:35: 4 beams. They win.

Here are your perfect matches:
  • Maria - Shamoy (truth booth #3)
  • Kayla - Tevin (matchup ceremony #7)
  • Nutsa - Brett (truth booth #9)
  • Cali - Andrew (matchup ceremony #10)
  • Kayla - Moe (matchup ceremony #10)
  • Morgan - Zak (matchup ceremony #10)
  • Samantha - Lewis (matchup ceremony #10)
  • Jasmine - Daniel (matchup ceremony #10)
  • Lauren - Kwasi (matchup ceremony #10)
  • Asia - Tomas (matchup ceremony #10)
  • Bria - Cam (matchup ceremony #10)
10:51: Ooh... we saw a clip of this earlier, but it seems like Kwasi is moving in on Maria even though she's been with Shamoy for a while. She's tempted, but backs out.

10:52: Lewis and Asia finally break the tension!

Thanks to all of you who read and commented this season! We've had hundreds of thousands of visitors visiting millions of times over the first seven seasons. Casting is open for season 8 now... and it looks like they are considering a sexually fluid cast.

Wednesday, November 22, 2017

Season 6, Episode 10 Probabilities - Live Blog - The Matches are In!

Episode 10 tonight... looks like there will be an episode 11 next week.

As a reminder, either Michael - Audrey (62.5%) or Joe - Alivia (no match) are headed for the Truth Booth.

10:03: Diandra wouldn't mind being with Kareem...

10:05: Keith is pretty excited about Geles.

10:06: And Anthony moves in quick on Zoe... Geles strikes back!

10:09: Quick cut to Jada and Dimitri hanging out, and then... Geles starts moving in on Clinton, and the fighting starts again.

10:10: Tyler pointing out once again that the house isn't going to find matches if the no matches don't let go. One of the clingest casts yet...

10:22: More drama...

10:27: Not much chemistry between Alivia and Joe.

Truth Booth #8

10:29: Michael and Audrey head to the Truth Booth...

10:33: No match means we have 3 possibilities left and one confirmed perfect match: Nicole and Tyler.
AnthonyClintonDimitriEthanJoeKareemKeithMalcolmMichaelShadTyler
Alexis33.3%XXXXXX66.7%XXX
AliviaXXXXXXX33.3%X66.7%X
AudreyXX66.7%XXXXXX33.3%X
DiandraX33.3%XXX33.3%XX33.3%XX
GelesX66.7%XXXXXX33.3%XX
JadaXXX66.7%XX33.3%XXXX
Keyana66.7%XXXXXXX33.3%XX
NicoleXXXXXXXXXXMatch
NurysXX33.3%XX33.3%33.3%XXXX
UcheXXXX33.3%33.3%33.3%XXXX
ZoeXXX33.3%66.7%XXXXXX
  1. Alexis - Malcolm, Alivia - Shad, Audrey - Dimitri, Diandra - Michael, Geles - Clinton, Jada - Ethan, Keyana - Anthony, Nurys - Keith, Uche - Kareem, Zoe - Joe
  2. Alexis - Malcolm, Alivia - Shad, Audrey - Dimitri, Diandra - Clinton, Geles - Michael, Jada - Ethan, Keyana - Anthony, Nurys - Kareem, Uche - Keith, Zoe - Joe
  3. Alexis - Anthony, Alivia - Malcolm, Audrey - Shad, Diandra - Kareem, Geles - Clinton, Jada - Keith, Keyana - Michael, Nurys - Dimitri, Uche - Joe, Zoe - Ethan

Matchup Ceremony #8

10:50: Geles trying to decide between Clinton and Michael - a legit question!
  • Diandra - Dimitri (inferred no match, repeat from ceremonies 1, 6, 7)
  • Geles - Clinton (repeat from ceremonies 6 and 7)
  • Alivia - Anthony (inferred no match)
  • Jada - Joe (inferred no match)
  • Nurys - Kareem (repeat from ceremonies 6 and 7)
  • Nicole - Tyler (inferred perfect match, repeat from ceremonies 1, 3, 6, 7)
  • Keyana - Michael (repeat from ceremonies 1 and 2)
  • Audrey - Keith (inferred no match)
  • Alexis - Ethan (inferred no match, repeat from ceremony 3)
  • Zoe - Shad (inferred no match)
  • Uche - Malcolm (inferred no match)
Blackout odds: 0%
Instant win possible: No
Most likely number of lights: 2

It'll be either 2 or 3 beams. 3 beams means it's combination #3 above.

10:59: And 3 beams it is, which means your perfect matches are...
  • Nicole - Tyler
  • Alexis - Anthony
  • Alivia - Malcolm
  • Audrey - Shad
  • Diandra - Kareem
  • Geles - Clinton
  • Jada - Keith
  • Keyana - Michael
  • Nurys - Dimitri
  • Uche - Joe
  • Zoe - Ethan
Congrats to Keyana and Michael, whose big gut instinct out of the gate turned out to be right! A pretty amazing run as they figure out the 11 perfect matches in just 8 matchup ceremonies - faster than season 3, which only had 10.

AnthonyClintonDimitriEthanJoeKareemKeithMalcolmMichaelShadTyler
AlexisMatchXXXXXXXXXX
AliviaXXXXXXXMatchXXX
AudreyXXXXXXXXXMatchX
DiandraXXXXXMatchXXXXX
GelesXMatchXXXXXXXXX
JadaXXXXXXMatchXXXX
KeyanaXXXXXXXXMatchXX
NicoleXXXXXXXXXXMatch
NurysXXMatchXXXXXXXX
UcheXXXXMatchXXXXXX
ZoeXXXMatchXXXXXXX

THANK YOU to the thousands of readers of this blog following in real-time and the hundreds of thousands of you who follow along each season! We'll be back for more next week.

Wednesday, March 15, 2017

Season 5, Episode 10 Probabilities - Live Blog - The Matches Are In!

9:01: Season finale!

As a quick reminder, here are your perfect matches so far:
  • Kam - Eddie (Week 5 truth booth)
  • Carolina - Hayden (Week 8 truth booth)
  • Alicia - Mike (Week 8 matchup ceremony)
  • Gianna - Ozzy (Week 8 matchup ceremony)
  • Kari - Michael (Week 8 matchup ceremony)
  • Kathryn - Andre (Week 9 matchup ceremony)
  • Taylor - Osvaldo (Week 9 matchup ceremony)
  • Tyranny - Jaylan (Week 9 matchup ceremony)

We're hoping one of these six couples go to the Truth Booth:
  • Casandra - Derrick
  • Casandra - Tyler
  • Hannah - Tyler
  • Hannah - Joey
  • Shannon - Joey
  • Shannon - Derrick

9:03: Derrick also shares with us that he knows this exact information. So that means they've managed to figure out the same information as running the possibilities through a computer program. Could you have figured that all out without this blog? (I couldn't - but it's definitely possible!) If they send one of those couples to the Truth Booth, they know the answer. It seems really likely that this house will pull off a win.

9:06: Kathryn and Ozzy going at it. Even though they know their perfect matches are someone else.

9:10: Good to see some people questioning how they got to the conclusion. Wish they would have shown us a fast-forward version of them trying to figure it out!

Truth Booth

9:16: It's Joey and Casandra going to the Truth Booth, and Derrick and Tyranny going on the date but ineligible for the truth booth. So with the house knowing what we know... they have a 50-50 shot at it.

9:25: They have to be hoping for a trade at this point.

9:28: Trade offer is out! Derrick pushing the team to take the offer.

9:29: What we can infer from what's been shown... Derrick has come to the right conclusion somehow, but hasn't done a good enough job showing his work to the rest of the group, especially the women.

9:32: Trade accepted! The prize goes up another $150,000 to $800,000.

Matchup Ceremony

9:39: Why is Michael so sweaty?

9:41: Ryan skeptical about Mike and Alicia. Mike sounds like a cover letter when he's talking about Alicia.

9:48: Kathryn thinks Andre is her perfect match... because of the way he treats Taylor? Not a lot of faith in the process. The team is dedicated to the numbers.
  • Michael - Kari (inferred perfect match, repeat from episodes 4, 5, 6, and 9)
  • Ozzy - Gianna (inferred perfect match, repeat from episodes 1, 3, and 9)
  • Mike - Alicia (inferred perfect match, repeat from episodes 3, 5, 6, and 9)
  • Joey - Hannah (repeat from episode 9)
  • Osvaldo - Taylor (inferred perfect match, repeat from episodes 4, 7, 8, and 9)
  • Jaylan - Tyranny (inferred perfect match, repeat from episodes 4, 7, 8, and 9)
  • Tyler - Casandra
  • Andre - Kathryn (inferred perfect match, repeat from episode 9)
  • Derrick - Shannon (repeat from episode 8)

9:49: It comes down to this. If they're right... 11 beams. If they're wrong, 8 beams.

9:52: Not very lucky for the show to already be going to beams this early...

9:56: And... they LOSE! This house was sacrificed at the altar for the luck of previous seasons. Here are your confirmed perfect matches:
  • Kam - Eddie (Week 5 truth booth)
  • Carolina - Hayden (Week 8 truth booth)
  • Alicia - Mike (Week 8 matchup ceremony)
  • Gianna - Ozzy (Week 8 matchup ceremony)
  • Kari - Michael (Week 8 matchup ceremony)
  • Kathryn - Andre (Week 9 matchup ceremony)
  • Taylor - Osvaldo (Week 9 matchup ceremony)
  • Tyranny - Jaylan (Week 9 matchup ceremony)
  • Casandra - Derrick (Week 10 matchup ceremony)
  • Hannah - Tyler (Week 10 matchup ceremony)
  • Shannon - Joey (Week 10 matchup ceremony)

9:58: Shots being fired all across the stage. Guys mad at each other. Kari and Derrick taking it hard. Great final shot of a devastated Derrick. Let's go to the reunion.

10:00: In case you were curious - the spoilers that leaked earlier in the season turned out to be accurate. With those spoilers, we were able to figure out the perfect matches after week 8.

10:02: Derrick still feels the strategy worked. About half of the house agrees with him.

10:09: Feels like the women's outfits looked better on the island than tonight at the reunion.

10:12: If Shannon had chosen Derrick Week 9... and Hannah picked Joey, Casandra and Tyler - they would have had 8 beams and known the 11 perfect matches.

10:16: Tyranny and Alicia escalating quickly and then exploding.

10:18: Alicia is with Eddie after the season, and Kam is with Gio from a previous season.

10:50: Gianna has an "appreciation ring" from Hayden.

Wednesday, March 1, 2017

Season 5, Episode 8 Probabilities - with spinoff assistance - The Matches Are In!

Tonight, MTV confirmed that there will be a spinoff called Are You The One: Second Chances. There are reports (original) that six of this season's cast members will be in that spinoff. The commercial tonight showed that two of those cast members are together as a perfect match!

See the original episode 8 post if you do not want to be spoiled by this info. (I will go back and add in prior episode information later.)

Monday, August 1, 2016

Season 4, Episode 7 Probabilities - Live Blog - The Matches Are In!

Due to technical difficulties, Nicole is guest blogging again this week!

10:03 - Dance lessons! Emma is once again SUPER jealous and Prosper is providing her with free therapy on the daily.

10:04 - Pole in a hole... this doesn't sound dirty at all.

10:05 - Did anyone else hear Nicole say "might need some yogurt" and then nudge Tori? Tori looked super annoyed...

10:06 - This is hilarious to watch. It reminds me of something...

10:07 - I know what it reminds me of... perfection!

10:08 - Couple 1 is Morgan and Tori (12.5%). Couple 2 is Cam and Victoria (25%). Both are solid choices as neither couple has been ruled out.

10:14 - Hey John, RBF is a very real thing. Give Emma a break

10:15 - What's worse? Having a guy say you have Resting Bitch Face or having a fellow female say you look like a soccer mom?

10:25 - There's an excessive amount of making out at this Adam and Eve party

10:25 - IS GIO SERIOUSLY ASKING KAYLEN TO BE HIS WING MAN?????

10:26 - "Everyone is watching me like I'm some joke"... if Gio only knew...

Truth Booth

It's Cam & Victoria going into the Truth Booth over Morgan and Tori.

No match means two combinations are eliminated, leaving 6 possibilities.

AsafCamCameronGiovanniJohnMorganProsperSamStephenTyler
AlyssaXXXXXXXMatchXX
Camille83.3%XXXXXXXX16.7%
EmmaX16.7%X16.7%50.0%X16.7%XXX
FrancescaX16.7%X16.7%X50.0%XXX16.7%
JuliaX33.3%X50.0%XXXX16.7%X
Kaylen16.7%33.3%XXXX16.7%XX33.3%
MikalaXXMatchXXXXXXX
NicoleXXXX33.3%16.7%33.3%X16.7%X
ToriXXX16.7%X16.7%XX33.3%33.3%
VictoriaXXXX16.7%16.7%33.3%X33.3%X

  1. Camille - Tyler, Emma - Prosper, Francesca - Giovanni, Julia - Cam, Kaylen - Asaf, Nicole - Stephen, Tori - Morgan, Victoria - John
  2. Camille - Asaf, Emma - John, Francesca - Tyler, Julia - Giovanni, Kaylen - Cam, Nicole - Morgan, Tori - Stephen, Victoria - Prosper
  3. Camille - Asaf, Emma - Giovanni, Francesca - Morgan, Julia - Stephen, Kaylen - Cam, Nicole - John, Tori - Tyler, Victoria - Prosper
  4. Camille - Asaf, Emma - John, Francesca - Cam, Julia - Giovanni, Kaylen - Tyler, Nicole - Prosper, Tori - Stephen, Victoria - Morgan
  5. Camille - Asaf, Emma - Cam, Francesca - Morgan, Julia - Giovanni, Kaylen - Prosper, Nicole - John, Tori - Tyler, Victoria - Stephen
  6. Camille - Asaf, Emma - John, Francesca - Morgan, Julia - Cam, Kaylen - Tyler, Nicole - Prosper, Tori - Giovanni, Victoria - Stephen
10:34 - Tyler doesn't look to pleased to see John chatting up Kaylen

10:35 - Between Tyler and John they said the word 'trash' 16 times. Lesson here is don't call John 'Trash' or you will end up on the floor. Word of the episode: Trash.

10:40 - Kaylen seems to attract the high drama kind of guys

10:45 - OH HERE WE GO...Gio goes after Stephen, Stephen goes after Gio, and Ryan shuts it down.

10:51 - I heard something about wolves and sheep and costumes...not sure where Gio was going with that.

Matchup Ceremony
  • Victoria - Prosper (repeat from episode 5)
  • Nicole - Cam (previously inferred no match)
  • Tori - Morgan (repeat from episodes 4 and 5)
  • Emma - Giovanni
  • Francesca - Asaf (previously inferred no match)
  • Camille - Tyler
  • Kaylen - John (previously inferred no match)
  • Julia - Stephen (repeat from episodes 4 and 5)
Blackout odds: 50% (3 out of 6 possible combinations).
Instant win possible: No, as they selected two previously inferred no matches.
Maximum possible number of lights: 5
Most likely number of lights: 2 (blackout)

Dangerously high odds of a blackout here! On the flip side: a non-blackout of either 3, 4, or 5 lights tell us the game-winning combination.

4 lights tell us the perfect 10! As in season 1, the matchup ceremony in week 7 gets us there... but will they be able to figure it out? Here are your season 4 perfect matches:
  • Mikala + Cameron (Truth Booth episode 3)
  • Alyssa + Sam (Truth Booth episode 6)
  • Camille + Tyler
  • Emma + Prosper
  • Francesca + Giovanni
  • Julia + Cam
  • Kaylen + Asaf
  • Nicole + Stephen
  • Tori + Morgan
  • Victoria + John
AsafCamCameronGiovanniJohnMorganProsperSamStephenTyler
AlyssaXXXXXXXMatchXX
CamilleXXXXXXXXXMatch
EmmaXXXXXXMatchXXX
FrancescaXXXMatchXXXXXX
JuliaXMatchXXXXXXXX
KaylenMatchXXXXXXXXX
MikalaXXMatchXXXXXXX
NicoleXXXXXXXXMatchX
ToriXXXXXMatchXXXX
VictoriaXXXXMatchXXXXX

Wednesday, November 18, 2015

Season 3 Finale (Episodes 9 and 10) Probabilities - Live Blog

10:00: Let's go!

10:04: Bad matchup as we know Mike is a match with neither Kayla nor Amanda.

10:05: Attempting to fix the getaway competition is the best thing they've done so far this season.

10:07: Uh oh...

10:08: Zak-Hannah (26.1%), Hunter-Britni (34.8%), and Austin-Kayla (30.4%) are our couples advancing to the getaway challenge. Honestly, not a bad choice. All those couples are fairly high probability. Not as good as Alec and Stacey.

10:20: This got crazy quick.

Truth Booth

10:45: Hunter and Britni go into the Truth Booth... and no match. That leaves 15 combinations.


AlecAustinChuckConnorDevinHunterMikeNelsonTylerZak
Amanda6.7%6.7%13.3%X6.7%26.7%X26.7%X13.3%
Britni6.7%13.3%XX26.7%XX40.0%13.3%X
ChelseyXXXMatchXXXXXX
CheyenneX20.0%6.7%XX6.7%6.7%X40.0%20.0%
Hannah6.7%XXXX40.0%20.0%13.3%X20.0%
KaylaX33.3%XX6.7%13.3%XX6.7%40.0%
Kiki20.0%XXXXX46.7%X33.3%X
MelanieX13.3%53.3%XXX6.7%13.3%6.7%6.7%
RashidaXX6.7%X60.0%13.3%20.0%XXX
Stacey60.0%13.3%20.0%XXXX6.7%XX

  1. Amanda - Hunter, Britni - Nelson, Cheyenne - Chuck, Hannah - Mike, Kayla - Austin, Kiki - Tyler, Melanie - Zak, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Alec
  2. Amanda - Chuck, Britni - Devin, Cheyenne - Zak, Hannah - Hunter, Kayla - Austin, Kiki - Tyler, Melanie - Nelson, Rashida - Mike, Stacey - Alec
  3. Amanda - Nelson, Britni - Devin, Cheyenne - Austin, Hannah - Zak, Kayla - Hunter, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Tyler, Rashida - Chuck, Stacey - Alec
  4. Amanda - Devin, Britni - Nelson, Cheyenne - Austin, Hannah - Zak, Kayla - Hunter, Kiki - Tyler, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Mike, Stacey - Alec
  5. Amanda - Nelson, Britni - Tyler, Cheyenne - Austin, Hannah - Zak, Kayla - Devin, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Hunter, Stacey - Alec
  6. Amanda - Zak, Britni - Nelson, Cheyenne - Mike, Hannah - Hunter, Kayla - Austin, Kiki - Tyler, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Alec
  7. Amanda - Zak, Britni - Nelson, Cheyenne - Hunter, Hannah - Mike, Kayla - Austin, Kiki - Tyler, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Alec
  8. Amanda - Nelson, Britni - Tyler, Cheyenne - Zak, Hannah - Hunter, Kayla - Austin, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Alec
  9. Amanda - Hunter, Britni - Austin, Cheyenne - Zak, Hannah - Nelson, Kayla - Tyler, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Alec
  10. Amanda - Austin, Britni - Devin, Cheyenne - Tyler, Hannah - Nelson, Kayla - Zak, Kiki - Alec, Melanie - Mike, Rashida - Hunter, Stacey - Chuck
  11. Amanda - Chuck, Britni - Devin, Cheyenne - Tyler, Hannah - Hunter, Kayla - Zak, Kiki - Alec, Melanie - Nelson, Rashida - Mike, Stacey - Austin
  12. Amanda - Nelson, Britni - Alec, Cheyenne - Tyler, Hannah - Hunter, Kayla - Zak, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Austin
  13. Amanda - Hunter, Britni - Nelson, Cheyenne - Tyler, Hannah - Mike, Kayla - Zak, Kiki - Alec, Melanie - Austin, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Chuck
  14. Amanda - Hunter, Britni - Nelson, Cheyenne - Tyler, Hannah - Alec, Kayla - Zak, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Austin, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Chuck
  15. Amanda - Alec, Britni - Austin, Cheyenne - Tyler, Hannah - Hunter, Kayla - Zak, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Nelson
10:45: Not totally clear to me what Devin means with all of the cups. Seems like at some times he's counting Chelsey and Connor and sometimes she's not.

10:55: If they win, it will be the biggest comeback ever... but, also, probably rigged? Would be very surprising.

Matchup Ceremony
  • Kayla - Hunter
  • Cheyenne - Austin (repeat from episode 6)
  • Stacey - Alec (repeat from episodes 1, 3, 5, 6, and 8)
  • Britni - Devin
  • Hannah - Zak (repeat from episodes 3, 7, 8)
  • Melanie - Tyler
  • Kiki - Mike
  • Amanda - Nelson
  • Rashida - Chuck
There's a 1 in 15 (6.7%) chance that they blackout here - and an equal 6.7% chance that they win the game here. This is the same as combo 3 above and combo 5 from last week. Like last week - a blackout would tell them the exact correct combination.

Wow... only 2 correct. Worst possible combination as it leaves 7 potential possibilities.

AlecAustinChuckConnorDevinHunterMikeNelsonTylerZak
Amanda14.3%14.3%14.3%XX28.6%XXX28.6%
BritniX14.3%XX28.6%XX57.1%XX
ChelseyXXXMatchXXXXXX
CheyenneXX14.3%XX14.3%14.3%X57.1%X
Hannah14.3%XXXX42.9%28.6%14.3%XX
KaylaX42.9%XXXXXXX57.1%
Kiki28.6%XXXXX28.6%X42.9%X
MelanieX14.3%42.9%XXX14.3%14.3%X14.3%
RashidaXXXX71.4%14.3%14.3%XXX
Stacey42.9%14.3%28.6%XXXX14.3%XX

  1. Amanda - Hunter, Britni - Nelson, Cheyenne - Chuck, Hannah - Mike, Kayla - Austin, Kiki - Tyler, Melanie - Zak, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Alec
  2. Amanda - Zak, Britni - Nelson, Cheyenne - Mike, Hannah - Hunter, Kayla - Austin, Kiki - Tyler, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Alec
  3. Amanda - Zak, Britni - Nelson, Cheyenne - Hunter, Hannah - Mike, Kayla - Austin, Kiki - Tyler, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Alec
  4. Amanda - Austin, Britni - Devin, Cheyenne - Tyler, Hannah - Nelson, Kayla - Zak, Kiki - Alec, Melanie - Mike, Rashida - Hunter, Stacey - Chuck
  5. Amanda - Chuck, Britni - Devin, Cheyenne - Tyler, Hannah - Hunter, Kayla - Zak, Kiki - Alec, Melanie - Nelson, Rashida - Mike, Stacey - Austin
  6. Amanda - Hunter, Britni - Nelson, Cheyenne - Tyler, Hannah - Alec, Kayla - Zak, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Austin, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Chuck
  7. Amanda - Alec, Britni - Austin, Cheyenne - Tyler, Hannah - Hunter, Kayla - Zak, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Nelson

How can you guess here???? You HAVE to repeat one couple from this week... but which one? You've got an 88% chance of getting it wrong on the first guess!

Notable confirmed non-match here is Zak and Hannah.

11:02: Dude on dude violence is OK?

11:03: Devin can be the funniest. And he at least seems open to criticism.

11:05: If they pick any of the couples with 14.3% or 71.4% chance, we'll have a chance to know the exact combination going into the Matchup Ceremony. If they don't, it's a guaranteed gamble.

11:08: Melanie and Rashida offered Chuck a threesome?

11:09: Zak-Kayla is the second-most-likely to be a perfect match in the truth booth (57.1%). Devin-Rashida (71.4%), and Hannah-Nelson (14.3%) make the challenge. But wait - Melanie-Tyler (confirmed no match) bump out Hannah and Nelson.

Devin and Rashida are the best possible couple to choose for the Truth Booth. Get it right and it's a match - get it wrong and they know the perfect 10.

11:25: Confirmed that we will NOT know the correct combination going into the Matchup Ceremony.


Will MTV tell us who the perfect matches are if they don't get it right?

Yes
No
Poll Maker

Truth Booth

It's Zak and Kayla. No match here tells us a lot: Kayla's match is Austin, Rashida's match is Devin, and Stacey's match is Alec, Kiki-Tyler, and Britni-Nelson. Perfect match means Cheyenne and Tyler are also a perfect match.

Perfect match!
  1. Amanda - Austin, Britni - Devin, Hannah - Nelson, Kiki - Alec, Melanie - Mike, Rashida - Hunter, Stacey - Chuck
  2. Amanda - Chuck, Britni - Devin, Hannah - Hunter, Kiki - Alec, Melanie - Nelson, Rashida - Mike, Stacey - Austin
  3. Amanda - Hunter, Britni - Nelson, Hannah - Alec, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Austin, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Chuck
  4. Amanda - Alec, Britni - Austin, Hannah - Hunter, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Nelson
Notable here - Alec and Stacey are NOT a perfect match.

What's the winning combination?

Amanda - Austin, Britni - Devin, Hannah - Nelson, Kiki - Alec, Melanie - Mike, Rashida - Hunter, Stacey - Chuck
Amanda - Chuck, Britni - Devin, Hannah - Hunter, Kiki - Alec, Melanie - Nelson, Rashida - Mike, Stacey - Austin
Amanda - Hunter, Britni - Nelson, Hannah - Alec, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Austin, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Chuck
Amanda - Alec, Britni - Austin, Hannah - Hunter, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Nelson
Poll Maker


11:33: They're on the right track with Tyler and Cheyenne, but Alec and Amanda is only a 25% chance of being right.

11:34: Slow motion coin flip.


If they win here... do you think the show is rigged?

Yes
No
Quiz Maker


5 beams means they win.


Matchup Ceremony
  • Austin - Britni
  • Hunter - Hannah
  • Devin - Rashida (repeat from episodes 3, 6, and 8)
  • Tyler - Cheyenne (confirmed perfect match, repeat from episodes 3, 7, and 8)
  • Alec - Amanda (repeat from episode 4)
  • Nelson - Stacey
  • Chuck - Melanie (repeat from episode 7)
  • Mike - Kiki (repeat from episode 9)

As you can tell... this is a potentially winning combination, the same as #4 above. They copied exactly one match from the earlier episode, as they needed.


Final result of Are You The One? Season 3

$750,000 win!
Go home with nothing!
Poll Maker
5 beams means they win.

Good night all, and thanks for tuning in.

Monday, November 24, 2014

Season 2, Episode 8 Probabilities - Live Blog - The 10 Matches are In

10:02 I wonder how many honeymoon suites they allocated. 6?

10:03 Nothing is a big sell like "I want someone like my mom or sister."

"His parents haven't ever been divorced... my parents haven't ever been divorced!!"

10:15 This is gross.

Our pairs are:

Brandon & Briana (40%)
Nathan & Christina (20%)
Anthony & Jessica (no match)

Per last week's chart - Brandon is either with Briana or Tyler, so picking him would definitely be the best strategy here.

10:16 These guys are idiots. If that logic to vote for Christina makes sense now, it would have made even more sense before...

10:25 Yeah, calling Nathan a puppy dog is right on. Go out and have fun!

10:27 Whipped cream vs. cool whip is pretty easy to predict the answer - whipped cream fans aren't ever going to even ask the question.

Truth Booth

Nathan and Christina in. If they are a perfect match, it'll tell us all ten pairings - as only two combinations remain with Nathan and Christina, and they have different second matches for Nathan (Ashley and Briana). If they aren't a perfect match - then Ellie and Nathan are a perfect match as well as Jasmine - Alex.

10:33 And they aren't. We have our first two inferred perfect matches: Ellie and Nathan are a perfect match, as are Jasmine and Alex.

AlexAnthonyBrandonCurtisDarioGarlandJohnLaytonNathanPratt
AlexandriaX50%XXX50%XXXX
AshleyXXXX50%XX50%XX
BriannaX50%50%XXXXXXX
EllieXXXXXXXXMatchX
JasmineMatchXXXXXXXXX
JenniXXXXXXMatchXXX
JessicaXXXX50%50%XXXX
ParisXXXXXXXXXMatch
ShelbyXXXMatchXXXXXX
TylerXX50%XXXX50%XX
ChristinaX25%XX25%25%X25%XX

Here are your 8 remaining combinations. There are really only 2 matches of the main 10, with each having 4 different Christina possibilities:
  1. Christina - Anthony, Alexandria - Anthony, Ashley - Dario, Briana - Brandon, Jessica - Garland, Tyler - Layton
  2. Christina - Dario, Alexandria - Anthony, Ashley - Dario, Briana - Brandon, Jessica - Garland, Tyler - Layton
  3. Christina - Garland, Alexandria - Anthony, Ashley - Dario, Briana - Brandon, Jessica - Garland, Tyler - Layton
  4. Christina - Layton, Alexandria - Anthony, Ashley - Dario, Briana - Brandon, Jessica - Garland, Tyler - Layton
  5. Christina - Anthony, Alexandria - Garland, Ashley - Layton, Briana - Anthony, Jessica - Dario, Tyler - Brandon
  6. Christina - Dario, Alexandria - Garland, Ashley - Layton, Briana - Anthony, Jessica - Dario, Tyler - Brandon
  7. Christina - Garland, Alexandria - Garland, Ashley - Layton, Briana - Anthony, Jessica - Dario, Tyler - Brandon
  8. Christina - Layton, Alexandria - Garland, Ashley - Layton, Briana - Anthony, Jessica - Dario, Tyler - Brandon
Matchup Ceremony
  • Briana + Nathan (confirmed no match)
  • Jasmine + Alex (match!)
  • Jessica + Anthony (confirmed no match)
  • Tyler + Brandon
  • Alexandria + Garland
  • Ellie + Layton (confirmed no match)
  • Ashley + Dario
  • Christina attempts to steal Anthony from Jessica. He declines!
This means they will see either 5 or 6 lights. 5 lights mean possibilities 1-4 from the list above, 6 lights mean possibilities 5-8. Each is a set of 10 correct!

We have our correct 10!

The 10
  1. Paris + Pratt (Truth Booth #4)
  2. Shelby + Curtis (Truth Booth #5)
  3. Jenni + John (Truth Booth #7)
  4. Ellie + Nathan (inferred after Truth Booth #8)
  5. Jasmine + Alex (inferred after Truth Booth #8)
  6. Alexandria + Anthony
  7. Ashley + Dario
  8. Briana + Brandon
  9. Jessica + Garland
  10. Tyler + Layton
Christina's match is either Anthony, Dario, Garland, or Layton.

AlexAnthonyBrandonCurtisDarioGarlandJohnLaytonNathanPratt
AlexandriaXMatchXXXXXXXX
AshleyXXXXMatchXXXXX
BriannaXXMatchXXXXXXX
EllieXXXXXXXXMatchX
JasmineMatchXXXXXXXXX
JenniXXXXXXMatchXXX
JessicaXXXXXMatchXXXX
ParisXXXXXXXXXMatch
ShelbyXXXMatchXXXXXX
TylerXXXXXXXMatchXX
ChristinaX25%XX25%25%X25%XX

Wednesday, March 12, 2014

Season 1, Episode 8 Probabilities - The Matches Are In!


Truth Booth

Ryan and Kayla were previously known to us to be not a match.

Matchup Ceremony

  • Wes - Kayla
  • Chris S - Jacy
  • Ethan - Amber
  • Joey - Jess
  • Dre - Simone
  • Ryan - Ashleigh
  • Adam - Shanley
  • John - Brittany
7/10 correct... but...

We now know the correct matchups, with three more tries to go!
  1. Coleysia - Dillan (Week 5 truth booth)
  2. Paige - Chris T (Week 6 truth booth)
  3. Amber - Ethan (Week 6 / Episode 7 matchup ceremony)
  4. Ashleigh - John
  5. Brittany - Joey
  6. Jacy - Chris S
  7. Jessica - Ryan
  8. Kayla - Wesley
  9. Shanley - Adam
  10. Simone - Dre

AdamChris SChris TDillanDreEthanJoeyJohnRyanWesley
AmberXXXXXMatchXXXX
AshleighXXXXXXXMatchXX
BrittanyXXXXXXMatchXXX
ColeysiaXXXMatchXXXXXX
JacyXMatchXXXXXXXX
JessicaXXXXXXXXMatchX
KaylaXXXXXXXXXMatch
PaigeXXMatchXXXXXXX
ShanleyMatchXXXXXXXXX
SimoneXXXXMatchXXXXX