Wednesday, March 15, 2017

Season 5, Episode 10 Probabilities - Live Blog - The Matches Are In!

9:01: Season finale!

As a quick reminder, here are your perfect matches so far:
  • Kam - Eddie (Week 5 truth booth)
  • Carolina - Hayden (Week 8 truth booth)
  • Alicia - Mike (Week 8 matchup ceremony)
  • Gianna - Ozzy (Week 8 matchup ceremony)
  • Kari - Michael (Week 8 matchup ceremony)
  • Kathryn - Andre (Week 9 matchup ceremony)
  • Taylor - Osvaldo (Week 9 matchup ceremony)
  • Tyranny - Jaylan (Week 9 matchup ceremony)

We're hoping one of these six couples go to the Truth Booth:
  • Casandra - Derrick
  • Casandra - Tyler
  • Hannah - Tyler
  • Hannah - Joey
  • Shannon - Joey
  • Shannon - Derrick

9:03: Derrick also shares with us that he knows this exact information. So that means they've managed to figure out the same information as running the possibilities through a computer program. Could you have figured that all out without this blog? (I couldn't - but it's definitely possible!) If they send one of those couples to the Truth Booth, they know the answer. It seems really likely that this house will pull off a win.

9:06: Kathryn and Ozzy going at it. Even though they know their perfect matches are someone else.

9:10: Good to see some people questioning how they got to the conclusion. Wish they would have shown us a fast-forward version of them trying to figure it out!

Truth Booth

9:16: It's Joey and Casandra going to the Truth Booth, and Derrick and Tyranny going on the date but ineligible for the truth booth. So with the house knowing what we know... they have a 50-50 shot at it.

9:25: They have to be hoping for a trade at this point.

9:28: Trade offer is out! Derrick pushing the team to take the offer.

9:29: What we can infer from what's been shown... Derrick has come to the right conclusion somehow, but hasn't done a good enough job showing his work to the rest of the group, especially the women.

9:32: Trade accepted! The prize goes up another $150,000 to $800,000.

Matchup Ceremony

9:39: Why is Michael so sweaty?

9:41: Ryan skeptical about Mike and Alicia. Mike sounds like a cover letter when he's talking about Alicia.

9:48: Kathryn thinks Andre is her perfect match... because of the way he treats Taylor? Not a lot of faith in the process. The team is dedicated to the numbers.
  • Michael - Kari (inferred perfect match, repeat from episodes 4, 5, 6, and 9)
  • Ozzy - Gianna (inferred perfect match, repeat from episodes 1, 3, and 9)
  • Mike - Alicia (inferred perfect match, repeat from episodes 3, 5, 6, and 9)
  • Joey - Hannah (repeat from episode 9)
  • Osvaldo - Taylor (inferred perfect match, repeat from episodes 4, 7, 8, and 9)
  • Jaylan - Tyranny (inferred perfect match, repeat from episodes 4, 7, 8, and 9)
  • Tyler - Casandra
  • Andre - Kathryn (inferred perfect match, repeat from episode 9)
  • Derrick - Shannon (repeat from episode 8)

9:49: It comes down to this. If they're right... 11 beams. If they're wrong, 8 beams.

9:52: Not very lucky for the show to already be going to beams this early...

9:56: And... they LOSE! This house was sacrificed at the altar for the luck of previous seasons. Here are your confirmed perfect matches:
  • Kam - Eddie (Week 5 truth booth)
  • Carolina - Hayden (Week 8 truth booth)
  • Alicia - Mike (Week 8 matchup ceremony)
  • Gianna - Ozzy (Week 8 matchup ceremony)
  • Kari - Michael (Week 8 matchup ceremony)
  • Kathryn - Andre (Week 9 matchup ceremony)
  • Taylor - Osvaldo (Week 9 matchup ceremony)
  • Tyranny - Jaylan (Week 9 matchup ceremony)
  • Casandra - Derrick (Week 10 matchup ceremony)
  • Hannah - Tyler (Week 10 matchup ceremony)
  • Shannon - Joey (Week 10 matchup ceremony)

9:58: Shots being fired all across the stage. Guys mad at each other. Kari and Derrick taking it hard. Great final shot of a devastated Derrick. Let's go to the reunion.

10:00: In case you were curious - the spoilers that leaked earlier in the season turned out to be accurate. With those spoilers, we were able to figure out the perfect matches after week 8.

10:02: Derrick still feels the strategy worked. About half of the house agrees with him.

10:09: Feels like the women's outfits looked better on the island than tonight at the reunion.

10:12: If Shannon had chosen Derrick Week 9... and Hannah picked Joey, Casandra and Tyler - they would have had 8 beams and known the 11 perfect matches.

10:16: Tyranny and Alicia escalating quickly and then exploding.

10:18: Alicia is with Eddie after the season, and Kam is with Gio from a previous season.

10:50: Gianna has an "appreciation ring" from Hayden.

59 comments:

  1. It's cheap that they're gonna make it. Also I cannot believe that after all the crap that was talked about Alicia they're she's gonna do that to Shannon. I have respect for Alicia because she was honest and never pretended anything else or that she was better than the others.

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    Replies
    1. Alicia was honest? I don't think I was watching the same show!?

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  2. Replies
    1. I thought they'd rig it. They'll probably win on a coin flip like season 3.

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  3. Swear to god if Hannah goes off she's full of it. He told you it was over and you fucked around in him so it's horseshit she better not go after Kat.

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  4. Hmmm... if it's down to a 50/50 thing for them, I reckon they're going to go with Derrick/Shannon, Joey/Hannah, and Cassandra/Tyler because the first two couples think they're each other's matches.

    Which means they could lose, because I think it's the other combo that's right. Tyler/Hannah seem perfect for each other (not a compliment) and Derrick/Casandra actually seem to have complimentary personalities.

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  5. Taylor with the strategy you gain no info. Everyone keep saying my hearts going to win this for us but your heart has gotten you five beams for weeks in a row and we volunteered strategy you found all the matches but two so would it make sense for you to take the fucking trade and listen to the guy that figured it out?

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  6. Also - how dumb are these people? Even if they were skeptical of the strategy last week, they've got to be able to see that with 9 matches, they need to switch just two couples. You don't need to be a math genius to get that switching Joey and Casandra doesn't get them the right number of beams earlier on.

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  7. I think that was cas and Tyler in the commercial. It was definitely Cass and a white dude.

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  8. They'll win but because it's rigged. I hope they won't buy they will.

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  9. At least Shannon got away from Tyler that's a win.

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  10. Joey in the pike comes down to this....

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  11. I hope his match is Shannon to fuck with the house and shut Hannah up.

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  12. That was so sweet I don't even care anymore Shannon and Derrick belong together that was so sweet I don't even care anymore I hope they are a couple

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  13. Kind of want 8 tho....they don't deserve the money

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  14. this cast does not deserve to win

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  15. I fricking hate commercials

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  16. Yay they lost! Deserved it they all were awful. Are you doing the reunion too?

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  17. I didn't think MTV would let them lose especially not after season 3's shit.

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    Replies
    1. Does this mean people can finally stop claiming the show is rigged every week?

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  18. Someone on another message board had a really interesting point. They focused so much on "strategy" these last 2 episodes because they want to show future seasons that strategy = losing.

    Now they can push their "follow your heart" nonsense.

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  19. Whhhat!! Tyler and Shannon! That's so surprising

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    Replies
    1. It's not them. It's Tyler and Hannah

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    2. I see that now, but before they released them, this site predicted they were a perfect match.

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    3. Sorry - I get mixed up every now and then when writing things down.

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  20. What were the spoilers they site isn't up anymore?

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    1. They've moved it around a bit, here is the most recent link: http://vevmo.com/forums/are-you-one-all-star-challenge

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  21. Alicia is right. They wanna talk girl code but only when it involves Alicia. No one said anything to Kat, or Hannah, or Gia, or Taylor. No one said shit to Dre, or Ozzy, or Tyler.

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  22. Shouts to Derrick for keeping it honest.

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  23. It's funny how petty Hannah's being when she kissed Joey?

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  24. Looking back Alicia was wrong but it's something that didn't need to be continued to be pressed upon honestly. They aren't together anymore Alicia is still with Eddie Kam is with Gio continue past it move on.

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    Replies
    1. Kam isn't with Gio. Alicia fucked Gio on the new show to get back at/be petty towards Eddie for something

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    2. Alicia is with Eddie but Eddie is not with her. She cheated on him with Gio during the are you the one all starts. That girl is a THOT

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  25. Alex-

    Just wanted to say thank you for putting this together for another season. I love reading this blog as well as looking at the statistical results. Your comment as to whether or not they could figure this all out without a computer (or pencil & paper) is dead on!

    Keep up the great work, and I look forward to seeing you continue in Season !

    -Jason

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  26. I absolutely love that they lost this season, especially after being handed 99% of the answers from the producers, and still not being able to figure things out. I am surprised that a lynch mob didn't turn out for Shannon and Joey, who between the two of them, pretty much screwed any chance they had from turning the finals into anything more than a coin flip. Had Shannon not been selfish in Week 9 and followed the strategy, or had Joey not been selfish and wanted a date with someone who he knew wasn't his match, they would have had enough information to win this thing.

    Of course, the lynch mob might have been pretty small, as there were a whole bunch of individuals: Taylor, Tyler, Andre, Gianna, Hannah, Ozzy, Kathryn, etc. who put their own interests ahead of ... ironically enough, their own interests. (Didn't you all want to win money?) And of course it is icing on the cake to hear that all of these couples who couldn't live without each other pretty much broke up the moment they left the house. ("We slept in the same bed together, but that was it." Sure, Tyler that's totally believable.)

    OK, producers, my suggestion for Season 6 if you want to be taken seriously:

    1. Don't give the answers to the cast
    2. Give them the tools to actually figure things out (if they can)
    3. Prove there are actually "matchmakers" behind the scene (I mean really, isn't this a golden opportunity to sell a cross-marketing deal with Match.com?)
    4. Either get rid of the honeymoon suite, or else make a prize for the couples that figure things out and find their perfect match. (i.e. their share gets taken out of the main pool and goes directly to them, whether or not the house wins)
    5. Did I already say stop giving the answers to the cast?!?

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    1. Where is proof that answers were given to the cast? If that was the case, surely they would have won.

      Sigh.

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    2. You are correct, there is no direct evidence that the cast was given the answers. I am making an assumption based on instinct and that the fact that almost every season, one cast members suddenly develops a "system" (anyone remember Devin and the cups?) wherein they get matches out of nowhere.

      This season was no different. They had been sitting on three or four matches (not counting the perfect matches) all season, and couldn't figure out who should be sitting with who. And then suddenly, Derrick comes up with five or six additional perfect matches, including couples that had never sat together before.

      Is it possible that the cast was able to figure things out? Theoretically, yes. Do I honestly believe that they were able to do the math and figure out the 1 in 39,916,800 correct combination in Week 9 without the help of a pencil and paper, computer system, physical chemistry, or the truth booth? No.

      There was some discussion about this Week 9, and the speculation is that the producers gave Derrick most of the answers, and then also approached Shannon and told her to "follow her heart" so that they wouldn't win in Week 9. Then when Joey screwed them over at the dating challenge, they couldn't put any of the possible matches into the truth booth. As a result, they had a coin flip (or a three sided die flip) going into the final.

      This is my opinion, but after watching 5 seasons of this, and watching the cast figure things out the same way pretty much every time, I think it is pretty accurate.

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    3. I listened to the afterbuzz episode of this after the finale, and Joey said he wasn't going for Cass, he thought it was Hannah, and the producers edited it to make it look like he was screwing things up deliverately.

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    4. also I'm not sure about giving matches, but I am convinced they told Shannon to 'follow her heart'. In the afterbuzz for ep 9, she says she can't tell them why she chose Tyler because she'd 'get sued' and then says that was a joke. Plus Tyler implies he was reprimanded for strategising earlier in the season. Both eps are worth a listen.

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    5. Jason,

      Back in season 1 (2014), the credits listed Pyschotherapist Dr. Erin Foster and Matchmakers Natasha Shpiner and Angelica Street.

      Since season 2, the credits haven't listed any matchmakers, so whether it is the same people doing it or different is anyone's guess.

      I've suspected since season 1 that production was giving the group assistance given the high number of permutations and my own extreme difficulties in finding any valid ones using pencil and paper.

      If you ever try and solve using brute force pencil and paper method throughout the season, you just end up getting endless dead ends, all of which are invalid. At least that was my experience.

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    6. Without the benefit of a computer program, there is no way for the cast to identify the number of remaining valid permutations (let alone to ACTUALLY FIND a valid permutation).

      Therefore it should've been impossible for the cast to know that they would get either 8 or 11 lights in the final matchup based on their "strategy". Or to know for certain that "8 perfect matches" were already "solved".

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    7. I disagree that it is impossible. Remember that there are 20-22 of them! One person does not have to validate all of the matchups, each person can remember who s/he was matched with in which weeks. I wish they would show us some of the activities they do (previous seasons used cups, or people standing together) to try and figure it out rather than just head into the episode with "Derrick knows these three people are the ones that are wrong."

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    8. Why would people think the show would try and help the contestants win, knowing that the show is almost surely better off being 4-for-5 instead of 5-for-5? I don't get it. There is no way to verify or refute your opinion, though.

      To Dave: the cast doesn't have to know the list of valid permutations, but can test any permutation against the known information from previous results. They can then see how close or far away they are from a valid permutation. This is not saying the cast will always find a valid permutation -- in almost every episode this season, they did not.

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  27. How do you know the producers gave them the answers? Totally just curious! Agreed I love that they lost as well lol

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  28. To truly understand the difficulties in solving this puzzle using pencil and paper (which the cast hasn't even been given access to since season 1), one should break the problem down into it's simplest form.

    2 perfect matches with 2 matchups is a guaranteed win.

    3 perfect matches (6 permutations) with 3 truth booths and 3 matchups should be won as well.

    4 perfect matches (24 permutations) with 4 truth booths and 4 matchups already gets complicated and is not a guaranteed win.

    5 perfect matches (120 permutations) is already excessively complex and difficult to work through.

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  29. On second thought, it is even possible to lose a game of 3 perfect matches with 3 truth booths and 3 matchups (if one utilizes poor strategy and has bad luck).

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  30. Hi Alex, my name is Michael and I work at MTV on AYTO on the digital/social marketing side. I'd love to talk to you about a few things for the upcoming season. Please check my profile on here and send me an email there. I will then respond from my official MTV email.

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