Wednesday, March 8, 2017

Season 5, Episode 9 Probabilities - Live Blog

Lots of action last week - three perfect matches and four combinations left, so make sure you're caught up! (The spoiler track with unconfirmed info from AYTO Second Chances is not incorporated here.)

9:03: Interesting twist - the house does not remember which weeks Hayden sat with Carolina.

9:04: Michael doesn't care about strategy, but Derrick and the others think they've figured out the couple from week 1.

9:06: Casandra wants to be with Joey (not a match), but Derrick thinks Tyler (25%) is her better match.

9:07: The Derrick - Michael fight turns out to be about Kathryn, not strategy. Security steps in!

9:14: Lots of no matches interested in each other: Alicia and Ozzy, Shannon and Tyler...

9:15: Casandra and Tyranny win dates. It's Casandra and Mike (who the house knows is not a match) and Tyranny and Derrick. Both are no matches! The Truth Booth won't help them.

9:19: Hannah thinks she and Joey (25%) might be a perfect match.

9:26: Seems like the next episode might be dead men walking... they might have no clue whatsoever.

Truth Booth

9:28: It's Derrick and Tyranny. Ryan offers the house the $150,000 trade. Of course, this is a great deal! It's the same 4 combinations left either way:
  1. Casandra - Derrick, Hannah - Tyler, Kathryn - Andre, Shannon - Joey, Taylor - Osvaldo, Tyranny - Jaylan
  2. Casandra - Tyler, Hannah - Joey, Kathryn - Andre, Shannon - Derrick, Taylor - Osvaldo, Tyranny - Jaylan
  3. Casandra - Andre, Hannah - Tyler, Kathryn - Jaylan, Shannon - Derrick, Taylor - Osvaldo, Tyranny - Joey
  4. Casandra - Andre, Hannah - Tyler, Kathryn - Osvaldo, Shannon - Derrick, Taylor - Joey, Tyranny - Jaylan
9:29: This seems to be the first time there's been some real debate over the trade.

9:34: The house takes the trade and the prize is up to $650,000. Kathryn is right - people are pretty excited about the $150,000, but it only shows up if they win. Derrick and Tyranny staying together til the end is an easy way not to win anything.

Matchup Ceremony

9:42: Eddie says he would have definitely opposed the trade.

9:44: The couples starting to come together...

9:45: ... nope. Shannon goes rogue and the crowd is SILENT... except for Derrick!

9:52: Derrick mad about the intentional miscommunication, not the choice.
  • Kari - Michael (inferred perfect match, repeat from episodes 4-6)
  • Alicia - Mike (inferred perfect match, repeat from episodes 3, 5, and 6)
  • Ozzy - Gianna (inferred perfect match, repeat from episodes 1 and 3)
  • Tyranny - Jaylan (repeat from episodes 4, 7, and 8)
  • Shannon - Tyler (inferred no match, repeat from episodes 3-7)
  • Hannah - Joey
  • Casandra - Derrick
  • Taylor - Osvaldo (repeat from episodes 4, 7, and 8)
  • Kathryn - Andre
Blackout odds: 0% (0 of 4)
Instant win possible: No
Maximum number of lights: 9
Most likely number of lights: 6

9:59: 6 lights means there are two possibilities left, and 9 lights means there are two possibilities left. We won't know the matches tonight.

10:00: It's 9 beams of light, which means there's a single set of couples that need to switch. Will they know who? Your new perfect matches this week are Kathryn and Andre, Taylor and Osvaldo, and Tyranny and Jaylan.

AndreDerrickEdwardHaydenJaylanJoeyMichaelMikeOsvaldoOzzyTyler
AliciaXXXXXXXMatchXXX
CarolinaXXXMatchXXXXXXX
CasandraX50.0%XXXXXXXX50.0%
GiannaXXXXXXXXXMatchX
HannahXXXXX50.0%XXXX50.0%
KamXXMatchXXXXXXXX
KariXXXXXXMatchXXXX
KathrynMatchXXXXXXXXXX
ShannonX50.0%XXX50.0%XXXXX
TaylorXXXXXXXXMatchXX
TyrannyXXXXMatchXXXXXX

  1. Casandra - Derrick, Hannah - Tyler, Shannon - Joey
  2. Casandra - Tyler, Hannah - Joey, Shannon - Derrick

10:00: We now know that if Shannon had gone with Derrick, as the house had agreed on, and Tyler matched up with Casandra, there was a 50% chance they'd know the right answer.

10:01: Will they figure it out next week? Come back and see. Thank you to the thousands of readers of this blog!!

10:16: The AfterMatch is showing a hookup web and Derrick is OFF the web. He's now claiming that he fooled around with 8 of the 11 women.

34 comments:

  1. wait are the matches posted last week not true??

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I've been posting two separate sets of posts - one with everything we've seen on screen, and one with spoilers using unconfirmed reports about AYTO Second Chances. This is in the former set of posts.

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  2. But last week it made Alicia a whore when no match was confirmed whereas as far as they know Joey and Cassandra could match. Hannah is such a hypocrite

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  3. I hate Hannah so much right now

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  4. Doesn't that make Hannah a dumb bitch too?

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    Replies
    1. seriously though she's so fake

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    2. It's not the fakeness it's the bitchiness.

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    3. well that too. I guess her true colors are showing

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    5. No, Hannah is a SELFISH dumb bitch. Same genus but lower species.

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  5. if the house doesn't get their shit together we might witness the first season to lose the game

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  6. If Kat and Andre are confirmed why are they there none of th other couples are?

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  7. Theory: Shannon was given a hint from producers to go with her heart... Because if she hadnt, they would have won tonight and no next week episode.

    Switch Shannon to Joey and Hannah to Tyler. . . Boom 650,000

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    Replies
    1. Except Derrick wanted Shannon to pick him, then Hannah/Joey and Cassandra/Tyler.

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  8. Why aren't Joey and Hannah the confirmed perfect match verses Kathryn and Andre the confirmed match ?

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  9. How are there 9 confirmed matches? If there's 9 perfect matches.... then there has to be 10!

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    Replies
    1. That's true for a season with 10 couples. This season has 11.

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  10. Calling it now, they will not win this game.

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  11. The function you have on your page where you can slide the screen right or left to go to another page is incredibly annoying when you're trying to read your table.

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    Replies
    1. Press the little lines next to the website.. Turns it into read view or some shit and it won't do that

      Delete
    2. Press the little lines next to the website.. Turns it into read view or some shit and it won't do that

      Delete
  12. The function you have on your page where you can slide the screen right or left to go to another page is incredibly annoying when you're trying to read your table.

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  13. Hannah...the double chin... I just want to pinch the shit out of that gobbler and shake it around

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  14. How did they get 9 beams? I wish they showed us their strategy and how they developed it without producer intervention or a computer. I saw them doing "scenario one", which is good strategy but not everyone was there to help with coupling up for visuals/organization, they don't have a pen and paper, or a computer program like you, and like you said they couldn't even remember the weeks Hayden and Carolina sat together. But it looked like they figured it out in no time.

    Idk seems implausible to me.

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  15. Tyler and Hannah; Shannon and Joey then walk away with $650 000

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  16. If I understood Derrick correctly, he wanted Shannon to be matched with him and Cassandra to be matched with Tyler, plus the Hannah-Joey match.

    So Shannon's rogue decision actually got them an extra beam.

    Depending on who goes into the Truth Booth in Week 10, they may or may not use that match-up for the finale.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Jurayna SparenMarch 9, 2017 at 3:58 PM
      If shanon wouldve picked derrick they wouldve known that they aren't a match & they would have gotten 8 beams. Therefore the next week they'll just have go with scenario 2.

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  18. I heard they lose lol I believe it because now they think Shannon and Cas just need to switch.. When really it's Shannon and Hannah

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  19. It makes sense that there is this versatility prob. They seem so much alike...Cass and Shannon.

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