Wednesday, March 1, 2017

Season 5, Episode 8 Probabilities - with spinoff assistance - The Matches Are In!

Tonight, MTV confirmed that there will be a spinoff called Are You The One: Second Chances. There are reports (original) that six of this season's cast members will be in that spinoff. The commercial tonight showed that two of those cast members are together as a perfect match!

See the original episode 8 post if you do not want to be spoiled by this info. (I will go back and add in prior episode information later.)

Commercial / Truth Booth

It's Hayden and Carolina in a commercial for AYTO: Second Chances! Turns out they also went to the Truth Booth just ten minutes later. Looks like MTV cares more about the new show's ratings than preserving the surprise for ten minutes.

This tells us it's also Casandra and Derrick together, and only 2 possibilities left for the other three couples.


  1. Hannah - Joey, Kathryn - Tyler, Shannon - Andre
  2. Hannah - Tyler, Kathryn - Andre, Shannon - Joey
Matchup Ceremony

Hannah and Tyler are going into the matchup ceremony. With Shannon pairing off with Derrick, this should mean that we know who the perfect matches are.

4 lights means that #1 above is correct, 5 lights means that #2.

It's 5 lights... here are your perfect matches...
  • Kam - Eddie (Week 5 truth booth)
  • Taylor - Osvaldo (Week 5 matchup ceremony + spinoff cast)
  • Alicia - Mike (Week 6 matchup ceremony + spinoff cast)
  • Tyranny - Jaylan (Week 6 matchup ceremony + spinoff cast)
  • Gianna - Ozzy (Week 7 matchup ceremony + spinoff cast)
  • Kari - Michael (Week 7 matchup ceremony + spinoff cast)
  • Carolina - Hayden (Week 8 truth booth)
  • Casandra - Derrick (Week 8 truth booth + spinoff cast)
  • Hannah - Tyler (Week 8 matchup ceremony + spinoff cast)
  • Kathryn - Andre (Week 8 matchup ceremony + spinoff cast)
  • Shannon - Joey (Week 8 matchup ceremony + spinoff cast)


  1. You put Cassandra and Hayden as perfect matches when it's Carolina and hayden.

  2. U mixed up Hayden and Carolina with Derrick and Casandra when listing the perfect matches.

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  4. Which perfect matches do you think are least likely to match up?

    I think it's Joey and Cassandra's real matches, plus Michael and Kari.

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  6. Ozzy and Gianna. Also Hayden and Carolina are in the spinoff

  7. Great! Now we know as blog followers who the matches are before the live reunion audience does. What will you blog about now that the matches have been solved? Hope you keep the live commentary going for the last two episodes plus the reunion.

  8. I dont think Hannah and Tyler are a match because if they were then we would have had 6 beams this episode.

    Therefore, by process of elimination, Hannah and Joey are a match.
    Shannon and Andre are a match.
    And finally Tyler and Kathryn are a match.

    I hope Im not dreaming here haha. I actually came back after the episode aired to see if I could figure out all 10 matches.

    1. Nevermind! Didnt realize it was Kari and Mike sitting together and not Kari and Michael

  9. I feel like they actually have to be a match. Like, it should be confirmed. Because Taylor and Ozvoldo are a match, Kam and Eddie are, Tyranny and Jaylan are, Hayden and Carolina are. That's 4. They had five matches this week and according to this list every other couple paired together (except Tyler and Hannah) aren't a match. Therefore, perfect match should be checked off.

    1. Tyler and Hannah are a match basically is what I'm saying, they should be checked off.

  10. Alicia and Michael
    Carolina and Hayden
    Cassandra and Derrick
    Gianna and Jaylan
    Hannah and Osvaldo
    Kam and Edward
    Kari and Mike
    Kathryn and Joey
    Shannon and Tyler
    Taylor and Ozzy
    Tyranny and Andre

    1. Your theory wouldn't work because in episode 4 you would only have 3 matches and there were 4 beams. I don't even know if I'm right on my prediction but we shall see!

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  12. Jaylan and Tyranny
    Michael and Kari
    Kam and Edward ❣️
    Tyler and Hannah
    Joey and Shannon
    Mike and Alicia
    Andre and Kathryn
    Ozzy and Gianna
    Derrick and Cassandra
    Osvaldo and Taylor

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  14. Where could I find the promo for second chances? I can't find it anywhere!

  15. yeah you should fix your chart, tyler and hannah are 100% a couple. there is not a 50% chance bc there were five beams this match up not four and so kathryn has to be with andre and shannon has to be with joey based on your logic

    1. The chart shown hereonly corresponds to the post-truth-booth, pre-matching-ceremony information. Usually there's a second, post-matching-ceremony chart... and that one would show all the 100% matches as described at the end of the post.