Season 5, Episode 8 Probabilities - Live Blog

9:07: The challenge this week is ex-boyfriends showing up. It's like a bizarro house.

9:10: Gianna calling Carolina out? Really?

9:12: Michael was totally right - the more good looking guys were the fake exes. And one of the guys is a miniature Ozzy!

9:13: Hayden is going on the date, and he'll be joined by one of Michael, Jaylan, Derrick, and Ozzy.

9:17: Hayden brings Carolina (6.0%), and Michael brings Kathryn (inferred no match).

9:19: Joey sets up a Froot Loops date with Casandra.

9:22: Gianna sooo mad at Carolina. Can't handle it!

9:24: SPOILER ALERT! AYTO Second Chances showing off one of the perfect matches from this season.

Truth Booth

9:31: It's Hayden and Carolina to the Truth Booth.

9:35: PERFECT MATCH! As spoiled ten minutes ago in a commercial for AYTO Second Chances. 46 possibilities left.

	Andre	Derrick	Edward	Hayden	Jaylan	Joey	Michael	Mike	Osvaldo	Ozzy	Tyler
Alicia	X	X	X	X	23.9%	8.7%	X	32.6%	23.9%	X	10.9%
Carolina	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Casandra	50.0%	30.4%	X	X	X	4.3%	4.3%	X	4.3%	X	6.5%
Gianna	X	10.9%	X	X	4.3%	2.2%	X	X	X	82.6%	X
Hannah	X	6.5%	X	X	X	17.4%	X	23.9%	28.3%	X	23.9%
Kam	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Kari	X	X	X	X	4.3%	X	89.1%	2.2%	X	4.3%	X
Kathryn	21.7%	X	X	X	10.9%	43.5%	X	4.3%	10.9%	X	8.7%
Shannon	15.2%	17.4%	X	X	8.7%	6.5%	2.2%	4.3%	4.3%	6.5%	34.8%
Taylor	X	34.8%	X	X	4.3%	6.5%	X	8.7%	28.3%	2.2%	15.2%
Tyranny	13.0%	X	X	X	43.5%	10.9%	4.3%	23.9%	X	4.3%	X

9:36: Alicia happy... but others getting salty.

9:42: The Honeymoon Suite is pretty nice. How many Honeymoon Suites do they roll out every season? Can't be more than 4...

Matchup Ceremony

9:47: Ryan Devlin dropping F Bombs!!

• Derrick - Shannon
• Mike - Kari
• Andre - Gianna (inferred no match)
• Tyler - Hannah
• Osvaldo - Taylor (repeat from episodes 4 and 7)
• Ozzy - Alicia (repeat from episode 7)
• Jaylan - Tyranny (repeat from episodes 4 and 7)
• Joey - Casandra
• Michael - Kathryn (inferred no match)

Blackout odds: 26.0% (12 of 46)
Instant win possible: No
Maximum number of lights: 8
Most likely number of lights: 4

9:58: 5 beams means just 4 possibilities remain... but we have THREE inferred perfect matches: Alicia and Mike, Gianna and Ozzy, Kari and Michael!

	Andre	Derrick	Edward	Hayden	Jaylan	Joey	Michael	Mike	Osvaldo	Ozzy	Tyler
Alicia	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X
Carolina	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Casandra	50.0%	25.0%	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	25.0%
Gianna	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X
Hannah	X	X	X	X	X	25.0%	X	X	X	X	75.0%
Kam	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Kari	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X
Kathryn	50.0%	X	X	X	25.0%	X	X	X	25.0%	X	X
Shannon	X	75.0%	X	X	X	25.0%	X	X	X	X	X
Taylor	X	X	X	X	X	25.0%	X	X	75.0%	X	X
Tyranny	X	X	X	X	75.0%	25.0%	X	X	X	X	X

1. Casandra - Derrick, Hannah - Tyler, Kathryn - Andre, Shannon - Joey, Taylor - Osvaldo, Tyranny - Jaylan
2. Casandra - Tyler, Hannah - Joey, Kathryn - Andre, Shannon - Derrick, Taylor - Osvaldo, Tyranny - Jaylan
3. Casandra - Andre, Hannah - Tyler, Kathryn - Jaylan, Shannon - Derrick, Taylor - Osvaldo, Tyranny - Joey
4. Casandra - Andre, Hannah - Tyler, Kathryn - Osvaldo, Shannon - Derrick, Taylor - Joey, Tyranny - Jaylan

10:01: Casting information about the AYTO spinoff has revealed the perfect matches for this season - check it out in my other blog post here.