Wednesday, November 7, 2018

Season 7, Episode 14 Probabilities - Live Blog

Let's get to it - the last matchup ceremony of the season (reunion next week). Can they win it tonight? Doesn't look good.

Truth Booth #10, continued

10:03: Nutsa and Brett are a perfect match! Two possibilities left.
  1. Asia - Kwasi, Bria - Tomas, Cali - Moe, Jasmine - Lewis, Kayla - Zak, Lauren - Daniel, Morgan - Cam, Nutsa - Brett, Samantha - Andrew
  2. Asia - Tomas, Bria - Cam, Cali - Andrew, Jasmine - Daniel, Kayla - Moe, Lauren - Kwasi, Morgan - Zak, Nutsa - Brett, Samantha - Lewis
AndrewBrettCamDanielKwasiLewisMoeShamoyTevinTomasZak
AsiaXXXX50.0%XXXX50.0%X
BriaXX50.0%XXXXXX50.0%X
Cali50.0%XXXXX50.0%XXXX
JasmineXXX50.0%X50.0%XXXXX
KaylaXXXXXX50.0%XXX50.0%
KenyaXXXXXXXXMatchXX
LaurenXXX50.0%50.0%XXXXXX
MariaXXXXXXXMatchXXX
MorganXX50.0%XXXXXXX50.0%
NutsaXMatchXXXXXXXXX
Samantha50.0%XXXX50.0%XXXXX


Brett talking the house out of sending them into Truth Booth #7 looks rough in retrospect.

10:03: Samantha is willing to go down with the ship with Daniel. And that would be a losing choice.

10:05: Cali seems to be talking herself into Andrew... Zak not sure about Morgan.

10:07: Asia running some speed dating right now... The speed dating seems to be centering on option 2 (last week's option 3)... showing Asia and Tomas, Lauren and Kwasi, and Bria and Cam.

10:09: They're doing the "stand together and rotate" exercise. Definitely the right strategy. Starting to hone in more on option 2...

10:10: As a reminder, if their memory is perfect, they should be able to work together to narrow it down to one of these two working combinations. If the 22 people each remember who they were sitting with during a given week, and how many beams they had each week... it's definitely easier than a single person trying to come up with the right answer.

10:11: Even more interesting... if they DO pick one of these two combinations... the last matchup ceremony will be either 3 beams (a blackout) or all 11 beams.

10:15: Strategically, Sam isn't wrong to want to push for another combination... but it seems like they got pretty conclusive

10:17: Asia and Bria decide to arm Kayla with the info that Cali and Dan kissed on the party night... and then... Moe steps in???? He offers to share the info!!

10:18: Moe goes in!!! Sam doesn't believe him!

10:22: Starting the matchup ceremony 22 minutes into an hour-long episode does NOT bode well for the house. What will you do with all the time? Just show them celebrating?

Matchup Ceremony #10

10:24: Andrew is already talking marriage. WOW.

10:26: It's not clear whether the house walked through Samantha and Daniel not being a match. Certainly, if they did... there's no possibility.

10:31: She picks Lewis. They're on the way.

10:32: Lauren wants Kwasi for his BBC. Kwasi wants Lauren because she's like his mom.
  • Cali - Andrew (repeat from ceremony 9)
  • Kayla - Moe (repeat from ceremonies 8 and 9)
  • Morgan - Zak (repeat from ceremonies 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7)
  • Samantha - Lewis (repeat from ceremony 1)
  • Jasmine - Daniel
  • Lauren - Kwasi (repeat from ceremony 2)
  • Asia - Tomas
  • Bria - Cam
10:33: So they pick option 2!! It's either 3 beams or 11 beams.

10:35: 4 beams. They win.

Here are your perfect matches:
  • Maria - Shamoy (truth booth #3)
  • Kayla - Tevin (matchup ceremony #7)
  • Nutsa - Brett (truth booth #9)
  • Cali - Andrew (matchup ceremony #10)
  • Kayla - Moe (matchup ceremony #10)
  • Morgan - Zak (matchup ceremony #10)
  • Samantha - Lewis (matchup ceremony #10)
  • Jasmine - Daniel (matchup ceremony #10)
  • Lauren - Kwasi (matchup ceremony #10)
  • Asia - Tomas (matchup ceremony #10)
  • Bria - Cam (matchup ceremony #10)
10:51: Ooh... we saw a clip of this earlier, but it seems like Kwasi is moving in on Maria even though she's been with Shamoy for a while. She's tempted, but backs out.

10:52: Lewis and Asia finally break the tension!

Thanks to all of you who read and commented this season! We've had hundreds of thousands of visitors visiting millions of times over the first seven seasons. Casting is open for season 8 now... and it looks like they are considering a sexually fluid cast.

23 comments:

  1. There was a “rumor” that Kwasi said Lauren was his match...though he had apparently said he was kicked off for fighting and that didn’t happen so I really don’t know

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    1. If you go through the Reddit channel on the show, it turns out that there were several "spoilers" that Kwasi revealed, most of which, turned out not to be true. For example:

      1. He said on his Live that they lost
      2. He said that Zak and Bria were a perfect match
      3. He said that he and Lauren were a perfect match

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  2. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  3. Production is being awfully heavy-handed since they are only showing matches from one of the possible options.

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  4. I wonder if the kicking off had something to do with them losing and choosing 2 while it was really 1. I can see this happening to throw off viewers. So wait and see lol.

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  5. I really think they were told by producers who their matches were. This is ridiculously obvious.

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  6. I think it's option #2. In episode one there's a brief scene with Sam and Lewis, where Sam's saying "You're not my match" based off one conversation. Where I automatically said that's definitely going to be her match. They also seemed to have a good friendship in the house as seen through multiple episodes. But then again, only one season has lost, so I could see this being a good reason to throw another season off the winning track.

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  7. The episode description says, "the house has one last chance to win love and money, along with an additional day to deal with the fallout." THE FALLOUT?! what does that mean?? Hmmm...

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  8. I can see them figuring out Samantha-Lewis based on the beams.

    But I cannot believe they spontaneously figured out the other random couples. We love nature? Really?

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    1. All of the new matches are based on single conversations they had that they were way too confident about. It's random and therefore makes me believe that the producers told them.

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  9. Sigh, another fixed season. Production has to stop giving them the answers.

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  10. Do yall really feel like this season was fixed?

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    Replies
    1. YES, did not even have to think about that.

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  11. Once we had it down to 2 combinations, I immediately thought it was option 2. As long as the cast was able to narrow it down to these same 2 combinations, I don't necessarily think this season was rigged. Not only did Sam and Lewis make sense based on their friendship, but there was no way Moe was Cali's match; Jasmine - Moe and Cali - Andrew make way more sense IMO.

    Looking forward to the reunion to see if any of the couples are still together, including Sam and Daniel who weren't perfect matches.

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  12. Are we sure the cast gets no pen and paper and no electronic devices to figure this out?

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    1. They do not need it. The producers tell them what is going on the last week and they say act surprised! and then like magic these retards make it seem like they can do math. What would be great is having these tard on a trivia game show, so we can see just how stupid most of them are. There is no way they got this... no way. Everyone now knows what a complete shit show and what a sham this really is. Why cant they lose, like happened already. What the ratings will suffer... cmon. If most people cant figure out the probability and the statistics how does this group do it in their head, when one is dumber than the next. You know they take a psych eval to get people who fall in love in 1 day, and math is not on that test guaranteed.

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  13. Well the addition of Brett/Nutsa being confirmed definitely helped, and they did have a whole lot of confirmed no matches to help them out. That, along with the low beam numbers throughout and being able to remove confirmed match/no match couples from each week would make it plausible to figure out the solution without assistance.

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  14. This show is obviously FIXED ... I can not be the only one to believe this. There is no way this group got it... no way. They couldn't find their way out of a wet paper bag with a hole in it and they magically solve this on the last episode. This year they seemed to be the worst at this game. 2 Weeks ago I told the wife if they solve this it is fixed...and he we are. If I saw them all sitting down with calculators and pencils, it would still be fake as I know they can not do math. Props to this site, ya have some great skills, and they are putting this cast of Season 7 on the same level as you, now ya get my point because that stings, and it stings bad... They can do it without paper and pencils! Right in the head they solve it...hmmm??? Reality TV my ass lol , Scripted reality is what this is, no more no less.

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    1. To be fair, it's not math; it's logic. Not that logic is their strong suit, either! But they have the ability to brute force it, and we did see them doing that.

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  15. thank you so much for this very interesting blog every episode.I really enjoyed it and to me it was more fun then watching the show. I agree with many commenters that the show was stupid this time, especially with the addition of the fate button.

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  16. Alex, if next season is going to have same-sex couples, and if they don't publish the exact rules before the season starts, are you going to be able to give us probabilities in your first post? How long could it take you to rewrite your code?

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  17. Hey, Can you show us your spreadsheet. I have not used logic since college, and I don't remember the formulas that would be used to solve this.

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  18. Hi Alex -- I'm a reporter for VICE looking to get in touch with you for a story about Are You the One?; I'm interested in talking about all the hard work you do parsing the odds of the show. My email is kate.dries@vice.com -- please hit me up! Thanks - Kate.

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