10:09: Sam and Tomas?
Matchup Ceremony #9
- Brett - Bria
- Kwasi - Nutsa (inferred no match after ceremony 8)
- Andrew - Cali
- Moe - Kayla (repeat from ceremony 8)
- Daniel - Lauren (repeat from ceremony 4)
- Tomas - Jasmine
- Lewis - Asia (repeat from ceremony 3, inferred no match after ceremony 7)
- Cam - Morgan
- Zak - Samantha (repeat from ceremony 2)
Instant win possible: No (fewer than 3 couples repeated from ceremony 1)
Maximum number of lights: 5
Most likely number of lights: 2 (blackout)
4 beams mean 5 possibilities remain.
| Andrew | Brett | Cam | Daniel | Kwasi | Lewis | Moe | Shamoy | Tevin | Tomas | Zak | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | X | X | X | X | 60.0% | X | 20.0% | X | X | 20.0% | X |
| Bria | X | 20.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% | X | 20.0% | X | X | X | 20.0% | X |
| Cali | 60.0% | X | X | 20.0% | X | X | 20.0% | X | X | X | X |
| Jasmine | X | X | X | 20.0% | X | 60.0% | X | X | X | 20.0% | X |
| Kayla | X | X | X | X | 20.0% | X | 60.0% | X | X | X | 20.0% |
| Kenya | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | Match | X | X |
| Lauren | X | X | 40.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% | X | X | X | X | 20.0% | X |
| Maria | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | Match | X | X | X |
| Morgan | X | X | 20.0% | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 80.0% |
| Nutsa | X | 40.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% | X | X | X | X | X | 20.0% | X |
| Samantha | 40.0% | 40.0% | X | X | X | 20.0% | X | X | X | X | X |
- Asia - Kwasi, Bria - Tomas, Cali - Moe, Jasmine - Lewis, Kayla - Zak, Lauren - Daniel, Morgan - Cam, Nutsa - Brett, Samantha - Andrew
- Asia - Kwasi, Bria - Brett, Cali - Daniel, Jasmine - Lewis, Kayla - Moe, Lauren - Tomas, Morgan - Zak, Nutsa - Cam, Samantha - Andrew
- Asia - Tomas, Bria - Cam, Cali - Andrew, Jasmine - Daniel, Kayla - Moe, Lauren - Kwasi, Morgan - Zak, Nutsa - Brett, Samantha - Lewis
- Asia - Kwasi, Bria - Daniel, Cali - Andrew, Jasmine - Lewis, Kayla - Moe, Lauren - Cam, Morgan - Zak, Nutsa - Tomas, Samantha - Brett
- Asia - Moe, Bria - Lewis, Cali - Andrew, Jasmine - Tomas, Kayla - Kwasi, Lauren - Cam, Morgan - Zak, Nutsa - Daniel, Samantha - Brett
Let's talk strategy. Sending a 20% or 80% couple into the Truth Booth seems like the right move. Getting lucky means we'll only have one combination going into the Matchup Ceremony.
Things look bleak - if we had full control over the Truth Booth and Matchup Ceremony, with all the information we have right now... we only have a 40% chance of winning.
10:43: Brett and Moe are the Fate Button's choice.
10:49: Nutsa and Lauren are also going on the date.
Moe is not a match with either of the women. Brett is not a match with Lauren and Nutsa is a 40% chance...
So, we will not know the right combination going into the finale. Either 2, 3, or 5 combinations will be left depending on which couple is going to the Truth Booth.
Truth Booth #10
It's Brett and Nutsa going to the Truth Booth.
Unfortunately, if the Truth Booth says Brett and Nutsa are a perfect match, we won't be able to infer any other perfect matches.
Brett and Nutsa being a no match will show that Zak and Morgan are a perfect match.
Things look bleak - if we had full control over the Truth Booth and Matchup Ceremony, with all the information we have right now... we only have a 40% chance of winning.
10:43: Brett and Moe are the Fate Button's choice.
10:49: Nutsa and Lauren are also going on the date.
Moe is not a match with either of the women. Brett is not a match with Lauren and Nutsa is a 40% chance...
So, we will not know the right combination going into the finale. Either 2, 3, or 5 combinations will be left depending on which couple is going to the Truth Booth.
Truth Booth #10
It's Brett and Nutsa going to the Truth Booth.
Unfortunately, if the Truth Booth says Brett and Nutsa are a perfect match, we won't be able to infer any other perfect matches.
Brett and Nutsa being a no match will show that Zak and Morgan are a perfect match.
I smell a blackout
ReplyDeleteThis show genuinely is pissing me tf off
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteIt’s amazing how resistant they are to the 2 most mathematically likely couples.
ReplyDeleteLooking at matches above, I'm kind of wondering if Ms. Know it All (Asia) or "I'm the Only One Playing with my Heart" (Samantha), will admit that they were wrong when they find out that the only guy they've been with all season, is not their match.
ReplyDeleteoption 4 seems the most possible
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
Delete# 1 Asia - Kwasi, Bria - Tomas, Cali - Moe, Jasmine - Lewis, Kayla - Zak, Lauren - Daniel, Morgan - Cam, Nutsa - Brett, Samantha - Andrew...is one I've thought it was last week. I'm still rooting for this one. WOW bring on the emotional circle of feelings. Really brings to question that we only see what they give us. More that goes on during filming. We might want to beat them over their heads with a stick about a billion times, but shit was pretty heavy tonight. I've watched since season 1 and this was...different.
ReplyDeletei think it's option 4!
ReplyDeleteI agree #4
DeleteI’m voting for #3.
ReplyDeleteUgh but from things I've read #3 works, but seriously don't think Morgan and Zak are a true match. Except look what happened with Tevin and Kenya's mess earlier on. Hmmm now I'm between 1 & 3 lol
ReplyDeleteI think it's 3. The matches this week were Moe and Kayla, Maria and Shamoy, Tevin and Kenya, and Cali and Andrew.
ReplyDeleteAndrew and Cali, Brett and Nutsa, Cam and Bria, Daniel and Jasmine, Kwasi and Lauren, Lewis and Sam, Moe and Kayla, Shamoy and Maria, Tevin and Kenya, Zak and Morgan, Tomas and Asia.
ReplyDeleteI know Cam personally. His match is Lauren because he is from West Virginia like her and he is obsessed with West Virginia. Think about the way the show played him up as obsessed with Trump in the first few episodes. He has always been that way about West Virginia. He even moved back there to go to law school.
ReplyDeleteI think it's 3
ReplyDelete#2 makes the most sense to me. I've been picking Asia/Kwasi, Bria/Brett, Cali/Daniel, Sam/Andrew as couples that could be a match despite a lack of a edit for some weeks now. I don't totally get Lauren/Tomas and Nutsa/Cam, but neither one seems like a bad match.
ReplyDeleteI have trouble not picking #3, though, because I really think the show has given us an abundance of hints that Sam/Lewis are a match. But so many of the others are total WTFs. Bria/Cam? Jasmine/Daniel? Lauren/Kwasi? In what world do Asia/Tomas hit it off in the slightest?
So yeah, I'm sticking with #2, but if there were some other combo with Sam/Lewis, I'd probably lean that way.
I agree with u about the edit of the show giving us hints about Sam & Lewis. And to any your questions; the producers did not edit away the scene where Bria begins to see Cam in a different light. Also, they are both academically driven. Asia & Tomas is basically a Sam & Lewis parallel.
DeleteI've been convinced for a few weeks of Asia-Moe and Bria-Lewis so ima go with #5.. the rest of the matches make sense to me too but you really can't tell this season
ReplyDeleteI don't think Bria-Lewis will be right. They are the 2 most immature people in the house.
DeleteSo they got two non perfect beams which means two of these is correct: Brett - Bria, Andrew - Cali, Tomas - Jasmine, Cam - Morgan.
ReplyDeleteI personally think Brett and Bria selfish as they are, are perfect matches but they probably aren't because the math doesn't work out.
If Brett at Nutsa aren't a PM, then that means Zak and Morgan are a perfect match (as mentioned above) and x out her and Cam. I think the connection between Andrew and Cali seemed real so Ill go there. I like Jasmine with Tomas because they both seem sweet in the same way, or at least are edited that way :)
So 5 its got to be 5 and they wont get there, no way. Asia - Moe, Bria - Lewis, Cali - Andrew, Jasmine - Tomas, Kayla - Kwasi, Lauren - Cam, Morgan - Zak, Nutsa - Daniel, Samantha - Brett
Why are you excluding Moe-Kayla from the list of possible correct matches?
DeleteAfter thinking about it a lot and basing it of Nutsa and Brett being a match, i think 3 is the most likely, a lot make sense there, and also there's a few randoms but that feels normal for this show but even some of the randoms make sense. If Brett and Nutsa aren't a match then 4 is the only other one that makes any sense to me. The other options are just getting too random based on what they've shown us on the show.
ReplyDeleteI feel they could lose, but who knows. Last season the max number of beams they got was 5, and they only had 1 confirmed perfect match and they won. So they definitely could do it but they'd have to pull their heads together which this season isn't good at
Last season, despite stalling on the number of beams and failing to find perfect matches in the Truth Booth, the information revealed from booths and ceremonies meant that the solution was knowable after the 8th ceremony. There was only one possible solution at that point. This season, they'll be going in to the last ceremony with at least two possible solutions. And, frankly, I think this season's contestants are less able to evaluate the probabilities; last season, the house had a statistics major.
DeleteI feel like the Fate Button just made the game arbitrarily harder by preventing the house from actively choosing which couples to have as Truth Booth options.
oh yeah i forgot about the statistic guy.
Deletei totally agree though. we've lost information we could've gotten from truth booths because of the fate button, and as viewer it makes it quite boring to watch, i preferred the challenges for sure.
I agree the real issue this season is the Fate Button. Being that it is "random" the chances of two people that have been developing feelings toward eachother and being able to validate that in the Truth Booth are slim to none, as we've seen. And people like Brett get to go on 4 fruitless dates ( possibly if him and Nutsa are not a match). I hope its rethought and removed. The odds are in No Ones favor.. and yes its boring. =/
Deleteexactly. its the only reason i feel brett and nutsa are a match, cause then what's the point of the fate button? if each week one isn't the right combination then theyre interfering the game that way, and giving them no chance to work it out. at least the challenges were interesting to watch, i find myself skipping the fate button section a lot and then even the truth booth cause it's so obvious they're not a match.
Deletemy theory is every season they want to make it harder because they don't want it to be easy to win the money (like in season 1 when they purposely blacked out to figure out who the matches were, now they can't black out without loosing the money). so they introduced the fate button to make working out the truth booth that little bit harder. in reality it's just boring for the viewers.
I actually went back and looked... Weeks 1 and 4 the fate button had no possible perfect matches. So it is "random" and not designed to always allow for a PM truth booth.
DeleteDo you think that maybe the first few they didn't have a PM but maybe later they started throwing them in? I mean just wondering. I have seen feedback on other media that the TB having PM's is debunked and it was completely random, but its not verified by MTV. (?) A truly Random TB is asinine.
DeleteI was wondering if every week there was a PM or not, the fact that there isn't one every week isn't too surprising, but then as a format i don't really agree with it. If it is truly random then it becomes a game of chance and not a game of them really figuring out love. It feels like it's become are you the one by chance?
DeleteI actually think the fate button is some of the reason this season isn't having a good season. It's probably my least favourite addition to any season of the show
If Brett and Nutsa are a match, it's combo 3. If Brett and Nutsa are not a match it's combo 4.
ReplyDeleteI like 5 except I just cannot see Kwasi and Kayla being a match. Based on Kayla's over bearing ex I just can't see them matching another hot head to Kayla who needs someone more supportive. I really for awhile was thinking Bria and Kwasi got to be a perfect match but that's not an option. I can't see Bria being with Tomas he's to soft spoken and sweet, same as Cam, and I just think her and Brett are an odd pair, but Daniel to me is plausible. So I think it has to be option 4.
ReplyDeleteI think Maybe... Kwasi is more sensitive than he lets on? The producer on the ground hovering over him while he cried made me wonder if the whole Beastmode is just a cover for someone with a super soft center. Which Kayla needs. But honestly I think I agree, I dont see it as a match and its the only part of 5 that throws me.
DeleteI've been rooting for Asia and Moe for a while now. I'll go with 5!
ReplyDeleteIs there any discernible logic, from previous seasons, for who MTV matches up? I find this hard to work out for myself as, to me, they are basically all the same non-entities.
ReplyDeleteNo, because we don't know if they pick the boys/girls first then find "matches" for them or just randomly select the number then match the chosen up or what
DeleteHuman relationships are so complex that there's no way that any so-called "experts" can accurately predict a perfect match. At best, your friends may correctly identify potential partners that WON'T work out for you. But as far as finding a real perfect match, "experts" are pretty much useless; the only way is trial & error.
DeleteI want to try to do this for a class project, what type of computer program are you using to solve this every week?
ReplyDeletewe will know after this truthbooth if we end up with 1 or 2 possibilities. Because when you go back to matchup ceremony 1 and go up to ceremony 9 and fill in 1 time with zak & morgan being an match and 1 time without being a match. You will see that asia & kwasi are a match in both situations sam as jasmine and lewis.
ReplyDeleteSo looking at ceremony 7 if brett & nutsa are a match this will result in zak en morgan being a no-match and thus only 1 possibility left, option 1. if they are not a match then you have option 2 or 4. option 3 and 5 are option wich will result in a loss. check it up!
My gut says Zak and Morgan aren't. But Im probably wrong.
DeleteIf they are a match, it has to be 3, which is also my pick. No way it will be 1. They spent too much of this season on Bria/Zak/Morgan to stick Zak with Kayla, and that pair makes zero sense regardless. They haven't even had a conversation on camera that I can remember and he's the biggest dog in the house, and she's the most fragile girl emotionally. If they aren't a match I like 4.
ReplyDelete~Have a sinking feeling it's Option #1~ which is GROOODY
ReplyDeleteSWEAR TO GLOB if they stick "Dude that nobody's into" with "Chick that everyone's into" for a second friggin season in a row, there will be hell raised!!
I mean, I feel strong about #3. A piece of information we have they don't is how producers edit the content for us the audience to watch. They should try to avoid the seasons feeling too random or people will lose interest. Also, they want to double on the "love experts" narrative. At the same time they probably don't want to make it too easy.
ReplyDeleteBecause of this you can always assume producers fuckin' around not only to get drama, but also to make at least some perfect matches orbit closer. Of course they would want to do the opposite too from time to time, since putting 2 people strongly together just to later confirm them as NO MATCH has been always great entertainment on AYTO.
Of course, according to this and because they either can always produce all the participants the way they want or could be interested in getting everyone closer to their perfect match, you can always assume a good bunch of perfect matches feeling random.
Dunno, this being said, if Brett/Nutsa turn out to be a match, then I'd say it's #3. If they're not, I haven't checked the other 3 options in depth yet.
What do u think?