As a reminder, either Michael - Audrey (62.5%) or Joe - Alivia (no match) are headed for the Truth Booth.
10:03: Diandra wouldn't mind being with Kareem...
10:05: Keith is pretty excited about Geles.
10:06: And Anthony moves in quick on Zoe... Geles strikes back!
10:09: Quick cut to Jada and Dimitri hanging out, and then... Geles starts moving in on Clinton, and the fighting starts again.
10:10: Tyler pointing out once again that the house isn't going to find matches if the no matches don't let go. One of the clingest casts yet...
10:22: More drama...
10:27: Not much chemistry between Alivia and Joe.
Truth Booth #8
10:29: Michael and Audrey head to the Truth Booth...
10:33: No match means we have 3 possibilities left and one confirmed perfect match: Nicole and Tyler.
| Anthony | Clinton | Dimitri | Ethan | Joe | Kareem | Keith | Malcolm | Michael | Shad | Tyler | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexis | 33.3% | X | X | X | X | X | X | 66.7% | X | X | X |
| Alivia | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 33.3% | X | 66.7% | X |
| Audrey | X | X | 66.7% | X | X | X | X | X | X | 33.3% | X |
| Diandra | X | 33.3% | X | X | X | 33.3% | X | X | 33.3% | X | X |
| Geles | X | 66.7% | X | X | X | X | X | X | 33.3% | X | X |
| Jada | X | X | X | 66.7% | X | X | 33.3% | X | X | X | X |
| Keyana | 66.7% | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 33.3% | X | X |
| Nicole | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | Match |
| Nurys | X | X | 33.3% | X | X | 33.3% | 33.3% | X | X | X | X |
| Uche | X | X | X | X | 33.3% | 33.3% | 33.3% | X | X | X | X |
| Zoe | X | X | X | 33.3% | 66.7% | X | X | X | X | X | X |
- Alexis - Malcolm, Alivia - Shad, Audrey - Dimitri, Diandra - Michael, Geles - Clinton, Jada - Ethan, Keyana - Anthony, Nurys - Keith, Uche - Kareem, Zoe - Joe
- Alexis - Malcolm, Alivia - Shad, Audrey - Dimitri, Diandra - Clinton, Geles - Michael, Jada - Ethan, Keyana - Anthony, Nurys - Kareem, Uche - Keith, Zoe - Joe
- Alexis - Anthony, Alivia - Malcolm, Audrey - Shad, Diandra - Kareem, Geles - Clinton, Jada - Keith, Keyana - Michael, Nurys - Dimitri, Uche - Joe, Zoe - Ethan
Matchup Ceremony #8
10:50: Geles trying to decide between Clinton and Michael - a legit question!
- Diandra - Dimitri (inferred no match, repeat from ceremonies 1, 6, 7)
- Geles - Clinton (repeat from ceremonies 6 and 7)
- Alivia - Anthony (inferred no match)
- Jada - Joe (inferred no match)
- Nurys - Kareem (repeat from ceremonies 6 and 7)
- Nicole - Tyler (inferred perfect match, repeat from ceremonies 1, 3, 6, 7)
- Keyana - Michael (repeat from ceremonies 1 and 2)
- Audrey - Keith (inferred no match)
- Alexis - Ethan (inferred no match, repeat from ceremony 3)
- Zoe - Shad (inferred no match)
- Uche - Malcolm (inferred no match)
Instant win possible: No
Most likely number of lights: 2
It'll be either 2 or 3 beams. 3 beams means it's combination #3 above.
10:59: And 3 beams it is, which means your perfect matches are...
- Nicole - Tyler
- Alexis - Anthony
- Alivia - Malcolm
- Audrey - Shad
- Diandra - Kareem
- Geles - Clinton
- Jada - Keith
- Keyana - Michael
- Nurys - Dimitri
- Uche - Joe
- Zoe - Ethan
| Anthony | Clinton | Dimitri | Ethan | Joe | Kareem | Keith | Malcolm | Michael | Shad | Tyler | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexis | Match | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X |
| Alivia | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | Match | X | X | X |
| Audrey | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | Match | X |
| Diandra | X | X | X | X | X | Match | X | X | X | X | X |
| Geles | X | Match | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X |
| Jada | X | X | X | X | X | X | Match | X | X | X | X |
| Keyana | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | Match | X | X |
| Nicole | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | Match |
| Nurys | X | X | Match | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X |
| Uche | X | X | X | X | Match | X | X | X | X | X | X |
| Zoe | X | X | X | Match | X | X | X | X | X | X | X |
THANK YOU to the thousands of readers of this blog following in real-time and the hundreds of thousands of you who follow along each season! We'll be back for more next week.
My vote is option 8. What do you guys think?
ReplyDeleteIf Michael and Audrey match up in the TB, I can definitely see a snowball effect with the other matches. It's like 3 TB's in one as it would confirm Geles and Keyana's matches. Whether they know that is yet to be seen.
ReplyDeleteNo way they know that much.
DeleteI agree with Amy Beth, at least not right now is there any way they know anything prior to this matchup ceremony. If anything Michael and Audrey not being a matchup probably only confuses them more. Although they can statistically win this easily with three matchups left and three logical possibilities left.
DeleteWhich they messed up with this match up now... i think they will only win with right guess and luck.
DeleteI vote for option 3.
ReplyDeleteSame
DeleteI agree, I think this option makes the most sense. I predicted it last week after the matchup ceremony.
DeleteAlso going for option three. Simply because I don't think Ethan and Jada are a match, Diandra is matched up with Kareem and Audrey and Shad just makes more sense than the other options.
ReplyDeleteDefinitely think Ethan and Jada are a match!
DeleteI find it interesting no matches form option 2 are the same as option 3
DeleteMay I ask why? I just can't see it
DeleteClinton and Jada are a match not geles and Clinton uche and Ethan are a match because when Jada's mad Clinton can calm her down and uche can put confident into Ethan
DeleteEthan Joe and Shad are just so hard to picture with anyone.
ReplyDeleteI had tunnel vision thinking Joe-Zoe had to be a match. But #3 would be poetic justice, with Keyana/Michael as a match.
ReplyDeleteWelp first pick is a dud, no win tonight.
ReplyDeleteHAAAAA Kareem's face before and after Diandra picked
ReplyDeleteToo good :D
Deletehere are the perfect matches Clinton and Jada keyana and Michael uche and Ethan three perfect matches so far including Tyler and Nicole
DeleteNicole and Tyler just might have saved a blackout the way they are picking.
ReplyDeleteMichael and Keyana remind me of Dillan and Coleysia from season 1
ReplyDeleteLol when they thought they would get 8 beams before the ceremony started
ReplyDelete"It'll be either 1 or 2 beams. 2 beams means it's combination #3 above."
ReplyDeleteThat is exactly what I was thinking as they were picking. That is the only other possible match.
Umm wtf 3 beams?
ReplyDeleteSorry, forgot to count Tyler and Nicole!
DeleteI overlooked Geles and Clinton, so we're even!
DeleteLOL AT MICHEAL FOR BEING AWFUL TO KEYANA
ReplyDeleteSooooo True!
DeleteCould be 1 just Tyler/Nicole 2 Tyler/Nicole & Clinton/Geles or 3 Tyler/Nicole Clinton/geles & Michael /keyana. Option 3 it is!!!
ReplyDeleteLooks like, as predicted, that Keith will be their savior next week.
ReplyDeleteMTV actually has 2 more episodes listed on my TV guide, unless MTV is fooling us with that noise.
DeleteWell it may take 2 weeks for him to convince Kareem!
DeleteIt's interesting you bring up Kareem even though we saw him in the preview freak out. I think Kareem actually knew who his match was prior to this match up and was surprised when Diandra didn't pick him.
DeleteOmg I live for this page, I can’t watch the show without looking at this page please never stop!!!!!
ReplyDeleteLel. Micheal and Keyana are really a match. lmfao
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteFun Fact:
ReplyDeleteEven though 5 beams is the highest they have gotten in any single matchup ceremony, 10/11 perfect matches have sat together at one point. Only Anthony/Alexis have never matched up.
Doesn't look good for them. In charting this based on your math (and just writing out the guys), there is one perfect match they've never paired (Anthony) and an incredible five perfect matches that were only paired once (Dimitri, Ethan, Joe, Kareem & Keith). The rest are paired 2x (Malcolm), 3x (Michael, Clinton), 4x (Shad) and 5x (Tyler). Even worse, four of the wrong pairs tonight were the first time ever paired (Anthony, Joe, Keith, Malcolm). Seem to be grasping at straws. And the fact the frequency nearly follows an alphabetical pattern (there goes Clinton ruining things), is just humorous. Calling fixed if they figure this out.
ReplyDeleteMake that five first time wrong pairs (Anthony, Joe, Keith, Malcolm and Shad).
DeleteI agree with you WFF. If they manage to figure it out, it'll definitely feel fixed. Especially because very few of the high probability couples are a match. I'm interested to see how well Keith's strategy works next week.
DeleteLOL! The truth is that there are so many combinations with 10 couples that every winning season (Seasons 1 thru 4) has been fixed. The only way to solve it is with a computer program. They haven't been allowed even pencil and paper since Season 1 (they are supposed to be able to "memorize" everything now and "follow their hearts").
DeleteWith 11 couples there are 11 times as many combinations as the past 5 seasons. It was absolutely impossible from the getgo, The only drama is whether production will give them the answer again!
I actually disagree! When the house comes up with a combination, they are able to evaluate whether or not it is a possible winning combination. With 22 people, remembering that information shouldn't be so hard. We now know, through this program, that there is only one possible winning combination left. So if the house is able to try combinations until they come up with one that matches all of the ceremonies and truth booths, that means they found the winning combination.
DeleteBy comparison, in seasons 3 and 5, the house went into the final matchup ceremony with multiple possible winning combinations. That meant they could do their best to come up with a possible winning combination, which both seasons did, and still lose. Season 3 certainly beat the odds in that regard.
hey i'm kinda confused with the final matches that were presented because they don't fulfill the beam count for match up ceremony number 3. there were two beams that ceremony but only one of the couples from the final match list and the list from that ceremony are the same: Tyler and Nicole.
ReplyDeleteDimitri and Nury were matched in that one too (per Wikipedia)
Deletedamn my eyes just glazed over that one. thanks!
DeleteI'm laughing at the fact that it's Keyanna and Michael because she called it in Episode 1 and he turned her down and broke up with her despite the fact that they were getting along to fuck around so I'm laughing my ass off.
ReplyDeleteSo in Keyanna's case yes if her perfect match was right in front of her she would know it.
ReplyDeleteHaha. You're right. She did know it.
DeleteIt's funny that Terrance tells them they're doing worse than any other season, when in reality, they're the best. LOL. But that's obviously based on the probabilities and not just the number of lights they got this week at the matchup ceremony.
ReplyDeletethe fact is, they're doing best but they don't even know and have no information clicking in their heads. But I think they're gonna get it somehow.
DeleteSome matches just don't make sense to me but hey, it has always been this way since season 1 lol it's just that we don't see all of it. Anyway I feel really bad for some matches... for instance, Keyana, she may be clingy but she doesn't deserve a player like Michael, although she never went looking for anybody else cause she simply knew and he doesn't deserve any of this. Then Alivia and Malcolm... I think Alivia deserves better too. Very happy for Nicole and Tyler and Clinton and Geles.
ReplyDeleteThink of it this way people...Suggesting that this season should be "solved" by the cast because someone can find the solution using a computer program, would be like saying every contestant on Price is Right should be a winner because someone at home can find every single "suggested retail price" of every product in America on the internet!
ReplyDeleteWith 11 possible couples there are almost 40 million combinations. It is impossible for them to even calculate how many possible combinations are still valid, and it should be impossible for them to even find the one valid combination out of 40 million even if they had pencil and paper (which they don't).
I agree. Plus, historically, they have been pretty bad with combinatorical logic; they sent Nicole and Dimitri to the fourth Truth Booth, when they were an inferred no match with very simple logic after the first two matchups.
DeleteThanks for another great season.
ReplyDeleteHi Alex! I'm hosting a season finale viewing party in NYC as a fundraiser for The Hope Gala. Would you be able to share the link to the Facebook event on your blog? I know there's a lot of viewership and I would love to spread the word and raise money to help children with cancer! Both Keith and Michael from this season live nearby and are interested in attending, so I'm looking forward to a verrrrry fun night.
ReplyDeleteHere's the link: https://www.facebook.com/events/145357882779145/
Thanks in advance!!!
Kyle, I actually went out of town after episode 10 and didn't come back until the finale had already aired. Hope you had a successful event.
Delete@Alex - Have you gone in more detail about HOW you come up with the probabilities? I'm fascinated by the game and wanted to start tracking this myself as a fun way to learn a bit more statistical analysis, but I can't find where you share what actual calculations are used. Would love to learn more!
ReplyDeleteIf you could even walk through like episode 1 and 2 and how the math changes I think it would be a great start for someone like me interested in the math. Cheers!
Hi Dylan, it's just a process of elimination using every single possibility. See the first post of each season for an explanation.
DeleteJada and Keith. LOL!!! HAHAHA
ReplyDelete