Season 6, Episode 7 Probabilities - Live Blog

Halfway through, this season's house has the most possibilities remaining... will they figure it out in time?

10:02: Keith and Alexis escaped all the commotion by heading off to the boom boom room.

10:13: The Getaway Challenge this week is a gumbo making challenge (each housemate only using one hand). Probably the most constructive challenge they've had so far!

10:20: Terrence J has to eat a lot of gumbo... some with cinnamon. The winners are Keith and Alexis (inferred no match) and Clinton and Geles (18.5%).

10:22: Diandra also thinking she and Malcolm have a shot... we know they don't.

10:24: Now Nurys fighting with Didi over Malcolm.

10:27: Bananas are flying and Clinton has to carry Didi away. Tyler has the right insight - that the no match couples are preventing people from meeting each other.

10:29: The house is pulling for Keith and Alexis... shout-out to DavidK93 for the explanation last week on why they're not a match:

Keith and Alexis sat together in ceremonies 1, 2, and 5; if they're a match, they were the only match in one-beam weeks 2 and 5. Many other couples from both weeks were repeated in other weeks, and would have to be wrong in those weeks. Eliminating those couples and other proven no-matches, plus any time Keith or Alexis were paired with anyone but each other, leaves exactly three possible couples for week 1, when there were three beams: Dimitri-Diandra, Keith-Alexis, and Tyler-Nicole. Then, eliminate any pairing that had someone from one of those couples with someone else. As a result, three-beam week 4 is left with exactly three couples: Anthony-Keyana, Malcolm-Alivia, and Michael-Geles. But if you then once again eliminate pairs that had one of those people with someone else, two-beam week 3 has only one possible match: Tyler-Nicole. Every other possible match has been ruled out, making that week's results impossible and disproving the initial assumption that Keith and Alexis were a match.

10:31: Do you view a sincere date like this differently knowing they're not a match?

Truth Booth #6

It's Keith and Alexis, who we already know are not a match. That means we're staying at 2,198 combinations left, still the worst in house history.

10:41: Speed dating round!! Probably a good way to START the season, but they're already in the second half.

10:43: Geles can't handle it.

Matchup Ceremony #6

10:50: "The Shad doesn't black out."

10:54: Ethan with the hat... groan

• Keyana - Anthony (repeat from ceremony 4)
• Alexis - Joe
• Uche - Michael
• Geles - Clinton
• Zoe - Keith
• Audrey - Shad (repeat from ceremonies 1, 4, and 5)
• Nurys - Kareem
• Diandra - Dimitri (repeat from ceremony 1)
• Alivia - Malcolm (repeat from ceremony 4)
• Nicole - Tyler (repeat from ceremonies 1 and 3)
• Jada - Ethan (repeat from ceremonies 1 and 2)

Blackout odds: 0%
Instant win possible: No, did not repeat 2 couples from ceremony 3
Most likely number of lights: 3

4 beams means that they've narrowed it down to 459 possibilities. Still no perfect matches (inferred or confirmed) and no new inferred no matches...

	Anthony	Clinton	Dimitri	Ethan	Joe	Kareem	Keith	Malcolm	Michael	Shad	Tyler
Alexis	10.2%	14.6%	22.0%	2.8%	6.5%	11.8%	X	8.9%	9.8%	9.2%	4.1%
Alivia	4.4%	8.3%	8.7%	1.3%	5.2%	1.5%	6.8%	51.9%	5.0%	4.8%	2.2%
Audrey	8.3%	6.8%	8.3%	2.0%	X	6.1%	7.0%	5.7%	8.3%	45.3%	2.4%
Diandra	X	10.7%	22.4%	2.2%	6.5%	27.2%	12.0%	X	9.2%	9.8%	X
Geles	X	23.3%	8.3%	X	4.1%	8.9%	10.9%	13.7%	24.4%	3.9%	2.4%
Jada	7.2%	X	0.9%	81.5%	1.5%	2.6%	2.0%	1.3%	1.1%	1.3%	0.7%
Keyana	44.9%	8.7%	8.1%	X	4.8%	5.2%	7.0%	3.5%	13.1%	4.8%	X
Nicole	X	3.9%	X	0.7%	0.2%	3.9%	2.6%	0.9%	1.3%	3.5%	83.0%
Nurys	6.3%	14.6%	13.5%	3.1%	7.8%	12.9%	29.8%	X	X	10.5%	1.5%
Uche	12.6%	X	X	3.9%	10.0%	13.3%	16.8%	9.8%	23.1%	6.8%	3.7%
Zoe	6.1%	9.2%	7.8%	2.6%	53.2%	6.5%	5.2%	4.4%	4.8%	0.2%	X