10:04: I want nothing to do with this Kareem and Alexis drama.
10:07: Now Malcolm trying to lie to Diandra about hooking up with Nurys.
10:13: Alexis brought her stuffed animal Bridget.
10:14: Tyler, Shad, Ethan, and Joe... are the least desirable guys? And are being fast-interviewed by a room full of girls. Tyler takes all his girls to Yogurtland for the first date.
10:15: Joe was in a cult?
10:17: Geles wants Michael's attention. Audrey is not happy!
10:24: Michael makes it up to Audrey with some makeup sex. Okay.
10:28: Kareem is pledging to be better... do you believe him?
10:33: Ethan defending Michael from the haters! Keyana also feels bad for him.
Matchup Ceremony #7
- Kareem - Nurys (repeat from ceremony 6)
- Anthony - Keyana (repeat from ceremonies 4, 6)
- Michael - Audrey (repeat from ceremony 3)
- Shad - Alivia
- Keith - Jada
- Diandra - Dimitri (repeat from ceremonies 1, 6)
- Joe - Uche
- Tyler - Nicole (repeat from ceremonies 1, 3, and 6)
- Ethan - Zoe
- Clinton - Geles (repeat from ceremony 6)
- Malcolm - Alexis
Instant win possible: No, did not repeat 3 couples from ceremony 1.
Most likely number of lights: 2
5 beams leave 8 possibilities!! A huge jump. But still no perfect matches.
| Anthony | Clinton | Dimitri | Ethan | Joe | Kareem | Keith | Malcolm | Michael | Shad | Tyler | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexis | 12.5% | X | X | X | X | 12.5% | X | 50.0% | X | X | 25.0% |
| Alivia | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 12.5% | X | 62.5% | 25.0% |
| Audrey | X | X | 25.0% | X | X | X | X | X | 62.5% | 12.5% | X |
| Diandra | X | 12.5% | 62.5% | X | X | 12.5% | X | X | 12.5% | X | X |
| Geles | X | 87.5% | X | X | X | X | X | X | 12.5% | X | X |
| Jada | X | X | X | 87.5% | X | X | 12.5% | X | X | X | X |
| Keyana | 87.5% | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 12.5% | X | X |
| Nicole | X | X | X | X | X | 25.0% | X | 25.0% | X | 12.5% | 37.5% |
| Nurys | X | X | 12.5% | X | X | 12.5% | 75.0% | X | X | X | X |
| Uche | X | X | X | X | 12.5% | 37.5% | 12.5% | 12.5% | X | 12.5% | 12.5% |
| Zoe | X | X | X | 12.5% | 87.5% | X | X | X | X | X | X |
- Alexis - Kareem, Alivia - Shad, Audrey - Michael, Diandra - Dimitri, Geles - Clinton, Jada - Ethan, Keyana - Anthony, Nicole - Malcolm, Nurys - Keith, Uche - Tyler, Zoe - Joe
- Alexis - Malcolm, Alivia - Tyler, Audrey - Michael, Diandra - Dimitri, Geles - Clinton, Jada - Ethan, Keyana - Anthony, Nicole - Shad, Nurys - Keith, Uche - Kareem, Zoe - Joe
- Alexis - Malcolm, Alivia - Shad, Audrey - Dimitri, Diandra - Michael, Geles - Clinton, Jada - Ethan, Keyana - Anthony, Nicole - Tyler, Nurys - Keith, Uche - Kareem, Zoe - Joe
- Alexis - Tyler, Alivia - Shad, Audrey - Michael, Diandra - Dimitri, Geles - Clinton, Jada - Ethan, Keyana - Anthony, Nicole - Malcolm, Nurys - Keith, Uche - Kareem, Zoe - Joe
- Alexis - Malcolm, Alivia - Tyler, Audrey - Michael, Diandra - Dimitri, Geles - Clinton, Jada - Ethan, Keyana - Anthony, Nicole - Kareem, Nurys - Keith, Uche - Shad, Zoe - Joe
- Alexis - Malcolm, Alivia - Shad, Audrey - Dimitri, Diandra - Clinton, Geles - Michael, Jada - Ethan, Keyana - Anthony, Nicole - Tyler, Nurys - Kareem, Uche - Keith, Zoe - Joe
- Alexis - Tyler, Alivia - Shad, Audrey - Michael, Diandra - Dimitri, Geles - Clinton, Jada - Ethan, Keyana - Anthony, Nicole - Kareem, Nurys - Keith, Uche - Malcolm, Zoe - Joe
- Alexis - Anthony, Alivia - Malcolm, Audrey - Shad, Diandra - Kareem, Geles - Clinton, Jada - Keith, Keyana - Michael, Nicole - Tyler, Nurys - Dimitri, Uche - Joe, Zoe - Ethan
10:45: Ethan goes streaking and suddenly Joe and Jada follow.
10:52: Time for a very late Getaway Challenge.
10:59: Michael - Audrey (62.5%) and Joe - Alivia (no match) win the date... but then Terrence J has a surprise. Boat party! See you next week!
It should be on mtvaytomatch.com it says episode 9 & 10 are next
ReplyDeleteMicheals “super attracted” to every girl he looks at then gets bored
ReplyDeleteJoe was a Jehovah's Witness, which some consider a cult!
ReplyDeleteLooks like Michael has control issues. He grabbed Audrey and wouldn't let her pass him in the hallway. I have a feeling that if the cameras weren't there she would still be trapped in that corner.
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ReplyDeleteWhy didn’t they do the exact same lineup in the challenge as in the previous matchup that got them 5 beams?
ReplyDeleteMalcolm - Alexis AND Shad - Alivia can not BOTH be a perfect match as there were more "consistent" perfect matches from Ceremony 7 (4/5 were in a matchup ceremony together previously); therefore, this leaves only one spot. I opted to go with the Shad - Alivia matchup simply because their percentage was higher.
ReplyDeleteAnthony - Keyana (87.5%)
Clinton - Geles (87.5%)
Dimitri - Diandra (62.5%)
Ethan - Jada (87.5%)
Joe - Zoe (87.5)
Kareem - Uche (37.5%)
Keith - Nurys (75%)
Malcolm - Nicole (25%)
Michael - Audrey (62.5%)
Shad - Alivia (62.5%)
Tyler - Alexis (25%)
Ceremony 1
1. Dimitri - Diandra
2. Ethan - Jada
3. Joe - Zoe
Ceremony 2
1. Ethan - Jada
Ceremony 3
1. Joe - Zoe
2. Michael - Audrey
Ceremony 4
1. Anthony - Keyana
2. Joe - Zoe
3. Keith - Nurys
Ceremony 5
1. Joe - Zoe
Ceremony 6
1. Anthony - Keyana
2. Clinton - Geles
3. Dimitri - Diandra
4. Ethan - Jada
Ceremony 7
1. Anthony - Keyana
2. Clinton - Geles
3. Dimitri - Diandra
4. Michael - Audrey
5. Shad - Alivia
I agree with this lineup
DeleteNooooooo. Tyler and Nicole are love. :(
DeleteSo next week is the last episode?
ReplyDeleteI'm going to hesitantly pick option 1, mostly because at this point I really think Alexis and Kareem are a match. That plus I'm somewhat confident these couples are matches: Anthony-Keyana, Ethan-Jada, Joe-Zoe, and Michael-Audrey.
ReplyDeleteI'm still completely baffled by the format of this season. I'm going to assume it's longer than 10 episodes because it seems REALLY unlikely they'd guess all 11 matches with only one more matchup ceremony (I doubt they know they're down to only 8 possibilities).
I doubt too, that they even know somthing bout their strategy. You never heard anything from them bout real strategy...
DeleteIf Michael & Audrey aren't a match that actually helps them more but knowing this group they would think it hurts them more.
DeleteIt would be hard for them to know that. They are not allowed pencil and paper. I assume its because they do not want the cast just to do math and figure it out.
DeleteI dont get it, why Alivia and Joe are a no match.
ReplyDeleteBecause there are only 8 possible matchup combinations that match all ceremony results, and Alivia and Joe are not paired in any of them.
DeleteWell, I guess one of two things happens:
ReplyDelete1) The house wins in the 8th ceremony in Episode 10, or
2) Someone commits sexual assault on the drunken sexboat and the cast is disqualified.
I suppose that there could be an option #3, in that there are more than 10 episodes.
DeleteIf it is option #1, then it is rigged. There is no way this cast has any clue what is going on, let alone who their perfect matches could be.
My money would be on option #2, although it just occurred to me that there could be a crazy option #4: they blackout twice in a row and lose all the money.
Did I miss something where they stated Episode 10 is last of the season?
DeleteYeah, but, they don't need to have any strong math background to discuss a complete set of pairings and assess if it matches the number of beams in previous ceremonies; only the valid options will pass that test, even if the house isn't able to analytically generate the list of valid pairings.
DeleteDo we know for sure that they lose $500,000 per blackout, rather than half of whatever the pot is at that time? Maybe two blackouts just busts them down to a $250,000 prize, rather than being an instant loss.
Nobody has stated that Episode 10 is the last of the season. But I believe every previous season has had 10 episodes. And the only other season not to have exactly one ceremony per episode was Season 1, where they won in the 9th ceremony (which aired in the 10th episode).
DeleteThanks!!
DeleteThey never stated that the season only has 10 episodes, it is only supposition on my part.
DeleteYou are right, they don't need any math background at all. But we haven't even heard them talking about who sat with who during previous weeks. And since they aren't even allowed to use pen and paper (why not I have no idea), I would seriously challenge their ability to work through the valid options, given what they have shown us so far (as far as their reasoning skills are concerned).
And yes, we know for sure they lose $500k for each blackout, if the host is to be believed. (He said this at the first match up ceremony).
Hrmmm...what *exactly* did he say? I thought it was something like, if they blackout, they will lose half the money, $500,000. It wasn't clear what would happen in the hypothetical situation that, after blacking out once, they black out again.
DeleteDavidK93 ... well I can't tell you "exactly" what was said, because for some bizarre reason, MTV has taken the first episode off of their web site. But I am 90% sure that the host said something like, "If you get no matches, that is a blackout, and you will lose $500,000." Not, "You will lose half of your money", as they did in past seasons.
DeleteIt turns out, there are more than 10 episodes. My TV listings show episode 11 airing on November 29.
DeleteLol. Keith's only remaining perfect matches are Jada, Nurys, and Uche. Three girls that he has spent absolutely no time talking to this season.
ReplyDeleteCan we just admit that the "matchmakers" have no idea what they are doing, and that the number of couples who weren't matches during their season, far outnumber any "perfect match" couples that are still out there?
I’m convinced that while they fill out tons of forms and give interviews to “matchmakers”, it’s all done to hype up the drama. Then, the actual matches are randomly done by casting
DeleteHey, you don't know; maybe Keith told the matchmakers he wanted to be with a black woman.
DeleteAmy Beth, I agree.
DeleteHell, I am convinced that they don't finalize the pairings until the very end of the season. That is, if it is going to make for good TV, they will put two people together (or not together), just because it adds to the overall drama.
Because it serves the show absolutely no value whatsoever for the cast to get a Truth Booth correct and get cast members out of the house. The "Honeymoon Suite" has always been a bust when it comes to interesting developments. So it wouldn't surprise me at all for the production crew to "rig" the pairings as it goes, to make sure they maximize drama and the cast's time in the house.
Jason,
DeleteI don’t think the show runners are math savvy enough to change the matches through the show and still make the numbers work.
I think they use the matchmaking interviews to figure out what the contestants’ types are and then put someone just like that in the house. Their actual show match is an afterthought. They want them being drawn to and hooking up with their usual type.
There are some pretty strict laws in the US about game shows, due to the big quiz show scandals in the 1950s. I belive it would be illegal for the producers to deceive the contestants in the way Jason described.
DeleteDavidK93 ... there are such laws, but this isn't a game show. This is purely entertainment, it is not a contest of chance or skill. We may see it differently, but I guarantee something like that is stated in the contracts the cast members sign, and give the producers the right to shift the results for entertainment purposes.
DeleteAmy Beth ... if the producers aren't savy enough to know how the permutations work, then they would never have been able to pitch the show to MTV. If nothing else, they could just come to this blog every week and see which permutations are left! ("Oh crap, Anthony can only be a match with Alexis or Keyana ... what the hell do we do now.")
DeleteThey may not rig the combinations during the season, but if they are, it wouldn't be difficult for them to figure out which ones were still available.
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ReplyDeleteI took a half hour to do the math for my new predictions based off of the last match up because it completely changed things around for me. I didn't think there was actually only 8 possibilities left but I'm just going to post the one I ended up with.
ReplyDeleteTyler - Nicole (1, 3, 6, 7)
Shad - Audrey (1, 4, 5, 6)
Michael - Keyana (1, 2)
Kareem - Diandra (4)
Clinton - Geles (6, 7)
Malcolm - Alivia (4, 6)
Dimitri - Nurys (3)
Ethan - Zoe (7)
Joe - Uche (7)
Keith - Jada (7)
Anthony - Alexis [yet to be matched up]
I just keep thinking ... which lucky girl is going to lose the Kareem lottery.
ReplyDeleteAnd is that girl going to be looking wistfully over her shoulder thinking, "At least I didn't end up with Malcolm!"
And here I was at the start of the season thinking ... Hmmm, there don't seem to be that many jerks on this season. :-D
Haha. Whoever gets Kareem OR Malcolm is losing out big time. Some of the options left for various cast members seem so odd. Clinton with Diandra or Geles? Wow.
DeleteHow likely is it that they made this huge leap on pure luck? It feels like a lot of info to gain from purely "playing with their hearts." Does anyone have a sense of that?
ReplyDeleteI'm going with combo 5 as my guess (though I'm really tempted to say 6 instead since I can't stand the idea of Tyler/Nicole being a no match.)
ReplyDeleteAdmittedly, I think #1 makes the most sense story-wise since that's the combo for which the show has made the most explanations of why those couples could be together.
I struggled with the idea that Tyler-Nicole might not be a match, but some of the other pairings in the combinations with them in it made no sense to me whatsoever. So I agree that #1 seems most logical at this point.
Delete*APPARENTLY* because I can't confirm this, Keith pulls out some crazy smart guy he had hidden in him the entire time and they go from 5 or 6 beams to all 11 of them. I'm not gonna post the spoilers for what the matches are, but you can search AYTO reunion spoilers on reddit for that info. SO there might be only 10 episodes this season, especially since the reunion was just filmed, I'm guessing that's what happened.
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Deletehe mentioned he had studied probability & statistics in college after he was shaking his head at everyone's picks during one of the matchup ceremonies
DeleteOK, so what you are saying is that the producers felt bad about the cast not winning any money last season, so they are going to give the case the answers this season, so that they can win? :-D
DeleteHey Alex, for some reason I'm getting only 3 possibilities. Are you sure yours is correct? Can't figure out where I'm going wrong. Thanks.
ReplyDeleteHi Nick, data entry errors do happen sometimes. Since we're down to a countable number of possibilities, I'd suggest validating the possibilities that I've listed here by hand.
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ReplyDeleteOh and my guess is Option 8.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteUPDATE: Alexis has said on her instagram that tonight IS NOT the last episode. She could be counting the reunion as the last episode, or lying, but that's what she has said.
ReplyDeleteMy TV listings show a new episode airing on 12/6: S06E12 "Playing With Fire". The description refers to the final match up ceremony as "upcoming."
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ReplyDeleteam I the only one watching the new episodes.. thank you for this blog
ReplyDelete