Season 9, Episode 8 Probabilities

Truth Booth #7

Hamudi and Mijntje go into the Truth Booth. They're a popular couple, but their odds went way down after sitting together in last week's Matchup Ceremony. No match! That brings it down to 519 possibilities.

	Aqel	Brendan	Clay	Eduardo	Hamudi	Leo	Mikey	Nathan	Ollie	Samuel	Will
Anissa	39.3%	X	11.8%	4.4%	X	5.4%	6.7%	20.2%	X	6.4%	5.8%
Brooke	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X
CC	10.2%	X	X	11.8%	14.8%	10.8%	3.9%	25.0%	X	12.3%	11.2%
Courtney	X	X	11.9%	9.2%	9.2%	8.9%	9.1%	13.9%	X	7.5%	30.3%
Danielle	6.9%	X	15.2%	9.6%	30.8%	X	X	21.0%	X	9.2%	7.1%
Dew	10.2%	X	X	10.4%	17.9%	12.5%	12.9%	X	X	20.8%	15.2%
Jordanne	5.2%	X	13.5%	25.4%	9.8%	6.0%	10.2%	19.8%	X	10.0%	X
Julia Ruth	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Mijntje	9.1%	X	21.6%	13.3%	X	10.4%	20.6%	X	X	11.8%	13.3%
Roz	10.0%	X	X	X	17.3%	13.3%	21.4%	X	X	20.8%	17.1%
Taylor	9.1%	X	26.0%	15.8%	X	32.8%	15.2%	X	X	1.2%	X

Matchup Ceremony #7
Due to Sam leaving the house, they confirm his perfect match right away - it's Mijntje, who now has to leave the house. This brings it down to 61 combinations.

	Aqel	Brendan	Clay	Eduardo	Hamudi	Leo	Mikey	Nathan	Ollie	Samuel	Will
Anissa	42.6%	X	23.0%	4.9%	X	3.3%	4.9%	16.4%	X	X	4.9%
Brooke	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X
CC	13.1%	X	X	18.0%	16.4%	11.5%	X	27.9%	X	X	13.1%
Courtney	X	X	11.5%	11.5%	3.3%	8.2%	11.5%	19.7%	X	X	34.4%
Danielle	8.2%	X	19.7%	8.2%	47.5%	X	X	11.5%	X	X	4.9%
Dew	14.8%	X	X	27.9%	6.6%	11.5%	23.0%	X	X	X	16.4%
Jordanne	8.2%	X	19.7%	23.0%	8.2%	3.3%	13.1%	24.6%	X	X	X
Julia Ruth	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Mijntje	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X
Roz	4.9%	X	X	X	18.0%	9.8%	41.0%	X	X	X	26.2%
Taylor	8.2%	X	26.2%	6.6%	X	52.5%	6.6%	X	X	X	X

Now on to the matchups:

• Will - Danielle (repeat from ceremony 6)
• Aqel - Anissa (repeat from ceremonies 2, 3, 4, and 5)
• Hamudi - Courtney
• Nathan - Jordanne
• Leo - Roz
• Clay - Taylor (repeat from ceremony 6)
• Mikey - CC (repeat from ceremony 6)
• Eduardo - Dew (repeat from ceremony 6)
  

Blackout probability: 18% (11 of 61)
Instant win possible: No, did not repeat enough couples from ceremony 3 or 5, too many from ceremony 6
Maximum number of lights: 7
Most likely number of lights: 4

It's a surprising 6 beams, which means only 6 combinations are left. All 6 combinations have Aqel and Anissa together, which means they're the first inferred perfect match.

	Aqel	Brendan	Clay	Eduardo	Hamudi	Leo	Mikey	Nathan	Ollie	Samuel	Will
Anissa	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Brooke	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X
CC	X	X	X	16.7%	16.7%	33.3%	X	33.3%	X	X	X
Courtney	X	X	16.7%	33.3%	16.7%	X	33.3%	X	X	X	X
Danielle	X	X	33.3%	X	66.7%	X	X	X	X	X	X
Dew	X	X	X	50.0%	X	16.7%	16.7%	X	X	X	16.7%
Jordanne	X	X	X	X	X	X	33.3%	66.7%	X	X	X
Julia Ruth	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Mijntje	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X
Roz	X	X	X	X	X	16.7%	X	X	X	X	83.3%
Taylor	X	X	50.0%	X	X	33.3%	16.7%	X	X	X	X

The 6 remaining possibilities are:

1. CC - Hamudi, Courtney - Mikey, Danielle - Clay, Dew - Eduardo, Jordanne - Nathan, Roz - Will, Taylor - Leo
2. CC - Nathan, Courtney - Hamudi, Danielle - Clay, Dew - Eduardo, Jordanne - Mikey, Roz - Will, Taylor - Leo
3. CC - Leo, Courtney - Clay, Danielle - Hamudi, Dew - Eduardo, Jordanne - Nathan, Roz - Will, Taylor - Mikey
4. CC - Leo, Courtney - Eduardo, Danielle - Hamudi, Dew - Mikey, Jordanne - Nathan, Roz - Will, Taylor - Clay
5. CC - Eduardo, Courtney - Mikey, Danielle - Hamudi, Dew - Leo, Jordanne - Nathan, Roz - Will, Taylor - Clay
6. CC - Nathan, Courtney - Eduardo, Danielle - Hamudi, Dew - Will, Jordanne - Mikey, Roz - Leo, Taylor - Clay