10:04: Bad matchup as we know Mike is a match with neither Kayla nor Amanda.
10:05: Attempting to fix the getaway competition is the best thing they've done so far this season.
10:07: Uh oh...
10:08: Zak-Hannah (26.1%), Hunter-Britni (34.8%), and Austin-Kayla (30.4%) are our couples advancing to the getaway challenge. Honestly, not a bad choice. All those couples are fairly high probability. Not as good as Alec and Stacey.
10:20: This got crazy quick.
Truth Booth
10:45: Hunter and Britni go into the Truth Booth... and no match. That leaves 15 combinations.
| Alec | Austin | Chuck | Connor | Devin | Hunter | Mike | Nelson | Tyler | Zak | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda | 6.7% | 6.7% | 13.3% | X | 6.7% | 26.7% | X | 26.7% | X | 13.3% |
| Britni | 6.7% | 13.3% | X | X | 26.7% | X | X | 40.0% | 13.3% | X |
| Chelsey | X | X | X | Match | X | X | X | X | X | X |
| Cheyenne | X | 20.0% | 6.7% | X | X | 6.7% | 6.7% | X | 40.0% | 20.0% |
| Hannah | 6.7% | X | X | X | X | 40.0% | 20.0% | 13.3% | X | 20.0% |
| Kayla | X | 33.3% | X | X | 6.7% | 13.3% | X | X | 6.7% | 40.0% |
| Kiki | 20.0% | X | X | X | X | X | 46.7% | X | 33.3% | X |
| Melanie | X | 13.3% | 53.3% | X | X | X | 6.7% | 13.3% | 6.7% | 6.7% |
| Rashida | X | X | 6.7% | X | 60.0% | 13.3% | 20.0% | X | X | X |
| Stacey | 60.0% | 13.3% | 20.0% | X | X | X | X | 6.7% | X | X |
- Amanda - Hunter, Britni - Nelson, Cheyenne - Chuck, Hannah - Mike, Kayla - Austin, Kiki - Tyler, Melanie - Zak, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Alec
- Amanda - Chuck, Britni - Devin, Cheyenne - Zak, Hannah - Hunter, Kayla - Austin, Kiki - Tyler, Melanie - Nelson, Rashida - Mike, Stacey - Alec
- Amanda - Nelson, Britni - Devin, Cheyenne - Austin, Hannah - Zak, Kayla - Hunter, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Tyler, Rashida - Chuck, Stacey - Alec
- Amanda - Devin, Britni - Nelson, Cheyenne - Austin, Hannah - Zak, Kayla - Hunter, Kiki - Tyler, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Mike, Stacey - Alec
- Amanda - Nelson, Britni - Tyler, Cheyenne - Austin, Hannah - Zak, Kayla - Devin, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Hunter, Stacey - Alec
- Amanda - Zak, Britni - Nelson, Cheyenne - Mike, Hannah - Hunter, Kayla - Austin, Kiki - Tyler, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Alec
- Amanda - Zak, Britni - Nelson, Cheyenne - Hunter, Hannah - Mike, Kayla - Austin, Kiki - Tyler, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Alec
- Amanda - Nelson, Britni - Tyler, Cheyenne - Zak, Hannah - Hunter, Kayla - Austin, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Alec
- Amanda - Hunter, Britni - Austin, Cheyenne - Zak, Hannah - Nelson, Kayla - Tyler, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Alec
- Amanda - Austin, Britni - Devin, Cheyenne - Tyler, Hannah - Nelson, Kayla - Zak, Kiki - Alec, Melanie - Mike, Rashida - Hunter, Stacey - Chuck
- Amanda - Chuck, Britni - Devin, Cheyenne - Tyler, Hannah - Hunter, Kayla - Zak, Kiki - Alec, Melanie - Nelson, Rashida - Mike, Stacey - Austin
- Amanda - Nelson, Britni - Alec, Cheyenne - Tyler, Hannah - Hunter, Kayla - Zak, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Austin
- Amanda - Hunter, Britni - Nelson, Cheyenne - Tyler, Hannah - Mike, Kayla - Zak, Kiki - Alec, Melanie - Austin, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Chuck
- Amanda - Hunter, Britni - Nelson, Cheyenne - Tyler, Hannah - Alec, Kayla - Zak, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Austin, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Chuck
- Amanda - Alec, Britni - Austin, Cheyenne - Tyler, Hannah - Hunter, Kayla - Zak, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Nelson
10:55: If they win, it will be the biggest comeback ever... but, also, probably rigged? Would be very surprising.
Matchup Ceremony
- Kayla - Hunter
- Cheyenne - Austin (repeat from episode 6)
- Stacey - Alec (repeat from episodes 1, 3, 5, 6, and 8)
- Britni - Devin
- Hannah - Zak (repeat from episodes 3, 7, 8)
- Melanie - Tyler
- Kiki - Mike
- Amanda - Nelson
- Rashida - Chuck
There's a 1 in 15 (6.7%) chance that they blackout here - and an equal 6.7% chance that they win the game here. This is the same as combo 3 above and combo 5 from last week. Like last week - a blackout would tell them the exact correct combination.
Wow... only 2 correct. Worst possible combination as it leaves 7 potential possibilities.
Wow... only 2 correct. Worst possible combination as it leaves 7 potential possibilities.
| Alec | Austin | Chuck | Connor | Devin | Hunter | Mike | Nelson | Tyler | Zak | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda | 14.3% | 14.3% | 14.3% | X | X | 28.6% | X | X | X | 28.6% |
| Britni | X | 14.3% | X | X | 28.6% | X | X | 57.1% | X | X |
| Chelsey | X | X | X | Match | X | X | X | X | X | X |
| Cheyenne | X | X | 14.3% | X | X | 14.3% | 14.3% | X | 57.1% | X |
| Hannah | 14.3% | X | X | X | X | 42.9% | 28.6% | 14.3% | X | X |
| Kayla | X | 42.9% | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 57.1% |
| Kiki | 28.6% | X | X | X | X | X | 28.6% | X | 42.9% | X |
| Melanie | X | 14.3% | 42.9% | X | X | X | 14.3% | 14.3% | X | 14.3% |
| Rashida | X | X | X | X | 71.4% | 14.3% | 14.3% | X | X | X |
| Stacey | 42.9% | 14.3% | 28.6% | X | X | X | X | 14.3% | X | X |
- Amanda - Hunter, Britni - Nelson, Cheyenne - Chuck, Hannah - Mike, Kayla - Austin, Kiki - Tyler, Melanie - Zak, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Alec
- Amanda - Zak, Britni - Nelson, Cheyenne - Mike, Hannah - Hunter, Kayla - Austin, Kiki - Tyler, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Alec
- Amanda - Zak, Britni - Nelson, Cheyenne - Hunter, Hannah - Mike, Kayla - Austin, Kiki - Tyler, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Alec
- Amanda - Austin, Britni - Devin, Cheyenne - Tyler, Hannah - Nelson, Kayla - Zak, Kiki - Alec, Melanie - Mike, Rashida - Hunter, Stacey - Chuck
- Amanda - Chuck, Britni - Devin, Cheyenne - Tyler, Hannah - Hunter, Kayla - Zak, Kiki - Alec, Melanie - Nelson, Rashida - Mike, Stacey - Austin
- Amanda - Hunter, Britni - Nelson, Cheyenne - Tyler, Hannah - Alec, Kayla - Zak, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Austin, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Chuck
- Amanda - Alec, Britni - Austin, Cheyenne - Tyler, Hannah - Hunter, Kayla - Zak, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Nelson
How can you guess here???? You HAVE to repeat one couple from this week... but which one? You've got an 88% chance of getting it wrong on the first guess!
Notable confirmed non-match here is Zak and Hannah.
11:02: Dude on dude violence is OK?
11:03: Devin can be the funniest. And he at least seems open to criticism.
11:05: If they pick any of the couples with 14.3% or 71.4% chance, we'll have a chance to know the exact combination going into the Matchup Ceremony. If they don't, it's a guaranteed gamble.
11:08: Melanie and Rashida offered Chuck a threesome?
11:09: Zak-Kayla is the second-most-likely to be a perfect match in the truth booth (57.1%). Devin-Rashida (71.4%), and Hannah-Nelson (14.3%) make the challenge. But wait - Melanie-Tyler (confirmed no match) bump out Hannah and Nelson.
Devin and Rashida are the best possible couple to choose for the Truth Booth. Get it right and it's a match - get it wrong and they know the perfect 10.
11:25: Confirmed that we will NOT know the correct combination going into the Matchup Ceremony.
Will MTV tell us who the perfect matches are if they don't get it right?
Truth Booth
It's Zak and Kayla. No match here tells us a lot: Kayla's match is Austin, Rashida's match is Devin, and Stacey's match is Alec, Kiki-Tyler, and Britni-Nelson. Perfect match means Cheyenne and Tyler are also a perfect match.
Perfect match!
- Amanda - Austin, Britni - Devin, Hannah - Nelson, Kiki - Alec, Melanie - Mike, Rashida - Hunter, Stacey - Chuck
- Amanda - Chuck, Britni - Devin, Hannah - Hunter, Kiki - Alec, Melanie - Nelson, Rashida - Mike, Stacey - Austin
- Amanda - Hunter, Britni - Nelson, Hannah - Alec, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Austin, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Chuck
- Amanda - Alec, Britni - Austin, Hannah - Hunter, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Nelson
What's the winning combination?
11:33: They're on the right track with Tyler and Cheyenne, but Alec and Amanda is only a 25% chance of being right.
11:34: Slow motion coin flip.
If they win here... do you think the show is rigged?
Matchup Ceremony
- Austin - Britni
- Hunter - Hannah
- Devin - Rashida (repeat from episodes 3, 6, and 8)
- Tyler - Cheyenne (confirmed perfect match, repeat from episodes 3, 7, and 8)
- Alec - Amanda (repeat from episode 4)
- Nelson - Stacey
- Chuck - Melanie (repeat from episode 7)
- Mike - Kiki (repeat from episode 9)
As you can tell... this is a potentially winning combination, the same as #4 above. They copied exactly one match from the earlier episode, as they needed.
Final result of Are You The One? Season 3
Good night all, and thanks for tuning in.
URGHHHH
ReplyDeleteSomehow I knew that they would fail at attempting to throw the challenge. So good.
ReplyDeleteOMG GET HUNTER AND BRITNI IN THERE PLZ
ReplyDeleteThey do put hunter and britni in and theyre not a match
ReplyDeleteI KNEW IT
ReplyDeleteAUSTIN IS THE ONLY SMART ONE THERE I SWEAR
ReplyDeleteThere is zero chance they get this.
ReplyDeleteHonestly Amanda has done nothing but hit Mike with things this whole time. He should not have shoved her away by the neck but I do not blame him for pushing her away.
ReplyDeleteEveryone watches her poke at him for hours.. and then are surprised when he reacts? That's insane. Poke the bear long enough and he bites.
ReplyDeleteEXACTLY! I don't condone him putting his hands on her but c'mon? A man should never hit a woman? Anyone who antagonizes and puts their hands on anyone is fair game. Regardless of gender.
DeleteNo 15 on your list of perfect matches is the correct one
ReplyDeleteThey'd have to be absolutely stupid to send Kayla and Zak in the truth booth. They already KNOW Kayla and Zak are a match they could kill two birds with one stone by sending in Devin and Rashida.
ReplyDeleteSo yeah they'll probably send in Kayla and Zak....
DeleteMTV has got to be fucking them over omg there is no way they keep getting the worst possible combination
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteNumber 7 is it on the updated matches . Nearly positive.
ReplyDeleteMy money is on combo 6, or 7.
ReplyDelete7
DeleteYOU KNOW WITH 1000% CERTAINTY ALREADY THEY'RE A MATCH WHY WOULD YOU SEND AN ALREADY CONFIRMED COUPLE YOU STUPID.
ReplyDeleteI know I agree. should have 100% been Devin and rashida and I also think they should have been fixing challenges since the start and getting real potential couples into the truth booth
DeleteThey aren't a gaurunteed match.. in their cup scenarios they had to make lots of decisions along the way. There's a 3 scenarios where Stacey and Alec are still a match. I think the are though! Number 6 all the way!
DeleteThere was basically a good 95% chance
DeleteTheir week 9 matchup was my Perfect 10 matches. lol. umm--only thing I can think now is Kayla and Zak are almost definitely a match (that is if we are banking on the feeling now that Stacy and Alec are most likely not a match due to only having 1 new beam in 9th matchup, and by that logic presuming that it's less likely they are a match since it's unlikely they were that ONE new match
ReplyDeleteCongratulations you figured out what you already knew. Smartest people in the room right here.
ReplyDelete25% chance of getting it.. but you also have to take into account their decision making skills, so maybe 5%. I don't think so!
ReplyDeleteknew they were a match
ReplyDeleteKiki and Alec not likely
ReplyDeleteThey are dead set on Mel and Tyler being a match... They lost
ReplyDeleteThey go with combination 15 in the final match up. If you look closely in the finale trailer they go with #15. I am praying that the have it right!
ReplyDeleteUpdated version now is combination 4
DeleteVery interesting!!
DeleteThank god they are doing senario 1!
ReplyDeleteI don't like that we don't know the correct combo going in the match up.. there'd be so much more anticipation and drama if we did!
ReplyDeleteAustin told me his match is someone really emotional, but a sweet girl... Which leads me to think Stacey or Amanda is his match.
ReplyDeleteI think they're right
ReplyDeleteTheir week 9 matchup was my Perfect 10 matches. lol. umm--only thing I can think now is Kayla and Zak are almost definitely a match (that is if we are banking on the feeling now that Stacy and Alec are most likely not a match due to only having 1 new beam in 9th matchup, and by that logic presuming that it's less likely they are a match since it's unlikely they were that ONE new match
ReplyDeleteWhat even was Scenario 1? Hah I'm so lost...
ReplyDeleteAmanda - Alec, Britni - Austin, Hannah - Hunter, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Nelson
DeleteWhere is Tyler?
DeleteConfirmed perfect match with Cheyenne due to Zak and kyle truth booth.
DeleteIt's scenario 4.. I think this is their best chance if they can actually complete it.
ReplyDeleteI AGREE WITH THEM
ReplyDeleteI think they're going to win with this match up.
ReplyDeleteI think they win with this combination.
ReplyDeleteThey got it.. completed scenario 4 and they couldn't get 6 beams if it was 1-3. Congrats! Right?
ReplyDeleteThey totally got this how crazy I dont even think it's rigged I mean cmon they just only decided to start playing 75% through the season
ReplyDeleteI really don't know what to think if they win... Could it really be rigged?
ReplyDeleteSeason 1 was almost too good... Season 2 I was even more surprised. This one takes the cake.
DeleteThey already won... 6 beams lit
ReplyDeleteDo you realize Tyler picking Chyenne wek 8 and ignoring the 3 for Kiki saved them $250,000!!!
ReplyDeleteWow, you're right, great insight.
Deletewhy Devin would of still probably picked Rashida?
Delete8 Matches
ReplyDeleteDidn't think that had it in 'em. Didn't think they could do it.
ReplyDeleteI think this season is rigged. To decide that people are their perfect match when they've hardly interacted. And obviously don't have a clue about doing what is obvious. And with only getting 3 lights as a max correct. To suddenly get them all right.....nah. I think it's rigged. Lol
ReplyDeleteCalled it at the beginning of the season.
ReplyDeleteWoooooo
ReplyDeleteThey did it. Who knew.
ReplyDeleteHonestly the worst season. The matches at the end were so independent from any connections made in the house that I am almost convinced this show is rigged. If not it made for really bad tv. This show proves that no, if your perfect match was in the room you probably wouldn't know it with few exceptions. All the couples I was rooting for got thrown out the window so many times that it no longer made it suspenseful and interesting, it just made it boring to follow. Crappy ending :(
ReplyDeleteDefinitely rigged at the end
ReplyDeleteThey played with strategy at the end and it worked
ReplyDeleteThank you for the blog, your dedication is appreciated!
DeleteI second that! I tried doing this myself... It was an epic fail. An Are You the One computer/math/excel wizard is exactly what I needed on Wednesday nights. I'm sure we will all be back for the next season too.
DeleteAlex - thanks so much for creating this blog and helping the rest of us try to figure out (with your math and all of the probabilities) the winning combination. You're awesome. I'll be back for the next season to read some more of your play by plays and to check out your next probability chart! Till then, keep being awesome.
ReplyDeleteCouldn't have said it better myself! Thanks, Alex!!!!!
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeletethanks for the blog, best place on the internet to discuss ayto!
ReplyDeleteIn the end, i don't think it was rigged. Knowing kayla/zak were a match really did give them a lot, and they had a 1 in 4 chance of getting it right. When there's so few possibilities left, it's a lot easier to figure it out by personality!
Plus i think this cast has just been really unlucky with their picks. Previous seasons had luck on their side a lot earlier (remember shelby and curtis last season?)
Best blog ever! This cast should not have been so focused on Kiki the whole entire time and put others in the truth booth. Also, Mike should not have gotten kicked out. Amanda was picking on him for a long time and he did nothing. A person could only take so much! Then ppl in the house turned on him, even tho most didn't see it. My favorites in this house were Zak, Rashida, and Austin :-)
ReplyDeleteWhile it's possible they got lucky this season, my gut says producers gave them the solution in the end.
ReplyDeleteAt best they had a 25% chance to win in the end, and that was only if they could produce at least one of the four potential winning combinations, which is a lot easier said then done given they weren't even permitted to use pencil and paper.
The coin flip idea also felt rigged to me. If they had actually produced 2 potentially winning combinations, wouldn't they have voted on which they thought was stronger?
In any event, I'll give producers the benefit of a doubt that the first 9 matchups went without any outside help. Which means their final winnings depended on how many times they blacked out.