Wednesday, November 11, 2015

Season 3, Episode 8 Probabilities - Live Blog

10:02: Not sure why this episode is called "Sorry Dad."

10:06: This dude is not 45 but of course compared to these people...

10:07: WTF Devin arm strength.

10:16: Our couples are... Hunter - Amanda (12.3%), Nelson - Kiki (30.8%), Austin - Kayla (23.1%). Hunter passes on his top 3 potential matches. Nelson and Austin pick the best available. (edit: sorry, I picked the wrong numbers at first!)

10:29: This is the worst-case scenario for sending the same couple over and over again into the truth booth... Nelson and Kiki going in.

Truth Booth

No match between Nelson and Kiki. He's devastated, she's not. 45 combinations remaining.

AlecAustinChuckConnorDevinHunterMikeNelsonTylerZak
Amanda11.1%11.1%20.0%X8.9%17.8%X17.8%4.4%8.9%
Britni2.2%6.7%XX24.4%37.8%X22.2%6.7%X
ChelseyXXXMatchXXXXXX
Cheyenne4.4%20.0%11.1%X8.9%8.9%6.7%X15.6%24.4%
Hannah6.7%6.7%XX2.2%17.8%11.1%6.7%8.9%40.0%
Kayla2.2%33.3%6.7%X11.1%4.4%4.4%11.1%6.7%20.0%
Kiki26.7%XXXXX33.3%X40.0%X
MelanieX6.7%44.4%XXX15.6%13.3%15.6%4.4%
Rashida4.4%8.9%8.9%X35.6%13.3%8.9%17.8%X2.2%
Stacey42.2%6.7%8.9%X8.9%X20.0%11.1%2.2%X

They're going to have to be careful in the matchup ceremony because Kiki has to be picked by one of the three guys here.

10:36: Good that Alec is staying focused on Stacey. They're the most likely couple left.

10:42: Seems ominous that they keep mentioning that Kiki only has three possibilities...

10:45: Alec and Mike passing on Kiki force Tyler's hand... Tyler picking someone else is bad for them because it caps their number of possible correct matches at 8, but it's not the end of the world for him to pick someone else.

Matchup Ceremony
  • Mike - Melanie (repeat from episode 6)
  • Hunter - Britni (repeat from episodes 1, 3, 6)
  • Alec - Stacey (repeat from episodes 1, 3, 5, 6)
  • Tyler - Cheyenne (repeat from episodes 3, 7)
  • Chuck - Amanda (repeat from episode 6)
  • Devin - Rashida (repeat from episodes 3, 6)
  • Zak - Hannah (repeat from episodes 3, 7)
  • Nelson - Kayla
  • Austin - Kiki (confirmed no match)
Odds of blackout are 1 out of 45: 0.2%. BUT... in a twist, if they get a blackout here, we'll actually know the exact set of perfect matches. There's only one possibility with 1 light on.

They get 3 lights, which actually was the worst outcome in terms of eliminating options. There are 23 combinations left, with some inferred non-matches.

AlecAustinChuckConnorDevinHunterMikeNelsonTylerZak
Amanda13.0%4.3%13.0%X8.7%17.4%X26.1%8.7%8.7%
Britni4.3%8.7%XX17.4%34.8%X26.1%8.7%X
ChelseyXXXMatchXXXXXX
CheyenneX26.1%4.3%XX4.3%4.3%X26.1%34.8%
Hannah8.7%13.0%XXX26.1%17.4%8.7%X26.1%
Kayla4.3%30.4%4.3%X13.0%8.7%XX13.0%26.1%
Kiki26.1%XXXXX43.5%X30.4%X
MelanieX8.7%60.9%XXX4.3%13.0%8.7%4.3%
Rashida4.3%X4.3%X56.5%8.7%13.0%13.0%XX
Stacey39.1%8.7%13.0%X4.3%X17.4%13.0%4.3%X


The 23 possibilities left after the jump... pick a number and vote in the comments!

  1. Amanda - Hunter, Britni - Nelson, Cheyenne - Chuck, Hannah - Mike, Kayla - Austin, Kiki - Tyler, Melanie - Zak, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Alec
  2. Amanda - Chuck, Britni - Devin, Cheyenne - Zak, Hannah - Hunter, Kayla - Austin, Kiki - Tyler, Melanie - Nelson, Rashida - Mike, Stacey - Alec
  3. Amanda - Chuck, Britni - Hunter, Cheyenne - Zak, Hannah - Austin, Kayla - Devin, Kiki - Tyler, Melanie - Nelson, Rashida - Alec, Stacey - Mike
  4. Amanda - Devin, Britni - Hunter, Cheyenne - Austin, Hannah - Zak, Kayla - Chuck, Kiki - Alec, Melanie - Tyler, Rashida - Nelson, Stacey - Mike
  5. Amanda - Nelson, Britni - Devin, Cheyenne - Austin, Hannah - Zak, Kayla - Hunter, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Tyler, Rashida - Chuck, Stacey - Alec
  6. Amanda - Devin, Britni - Nelson, Cheyenne - Austin, Hannah - Zak, Kayla - Hunter, Kiki - Tyler, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Mike, Stacey - Alec
  7. Amanda - Nelson, Britni - Tyler, Cheyenne - Austin, Hannah - Zak, Kayla - Devin, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Hunter, Stacey - Alec
  8. Amanda - Zak, Britni - Nelson, Cheyenne - Mike, Hannah - Hunter, Kayla - Austin, Kiki - Tyler, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Alec
  9. Amanda - Zak, Britni - Nelson, Cheyenne - Hunter, Hannah - Mike, Kayla - Austin, Kiki - Tyler, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Alec
  10. Amanda - Nelson, Britni - Tyler, Cheyenne - Zak, Hannah - Hunter, Kayla - Austin, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Alec
  11. Amanda - Hunter, Britni - Austin, Cheyenne - Zak, Hannah - Nelson, Kayla - Tyler, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Alec
  12. Amanda - Tyler, Britni - Hunter, Cheyenne - Zak, Hannah - Mike, Kayla - Austin, Kiki - Alec, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Nelson
  13. Amanda - Nelson, Britni - Hunter, Cheyenne - Zak, Hannah - Austin, Kayla - Tyler, Kiki - Alec, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Mike
  14. Amanda - Nelson, Britni - Hunter, Cheyenne - Zak, Hannah - Austin, Kayla - Alec, Kiki - Tyler, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Mike
  15. Amanda - Austin, Britni - Devin, Cheyenne - Tyler, Hannah - Nelson, Kayla - Zak, Kiki - Alec, Melanie - Mike, Rashida - Hunter, Stacey - Chuck
  16. Amanda - Chuck, Britni - Devin, Cheyenne - Tyler, Hannah - Hunter, Kayla - Zak, Kiki - Alec, Melanie - Nelson, Rashida - Mike, Stacey - Austin
  17. Amanda - Nelson, Britni - Alec, Cheyenne - Tyler, Hannah - Hunter, Kayla - Zak, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Austin
  18. Amanda - Hunter, Britni - Nelson, Cheyenne - Tyler, Hannah - Mike, Kayla - Zak, Kiki - Alec, Melanie - Austin, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Chuck
  19. Amanda - Hunter, Britni - Nelson, Cheyenne - Tyler, Hannah - Alec, Kayla - Zak, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Austin, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Chuck
  20. Amanda - Tyler, Britni - Hunter, Cheyenne - Zak, Hannah - Alec, Kayla - Austin, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Nelson
  21. Amanda - Alec, Britni - Hunter, Cheyenne - Austin, Hannah - Zak, Kayla - Devin, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Nelson, Stacey - Tyler
  22. Amanda - Alec, Britni - Hunter, Cheyenne - Austin, Hannah - Zak, Kayla - Tyler, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Nelson, Stacey - Devin
  23. Amanda - Alec, Britni - Austin, Cheyenne - Tyler, Hannah - Hunter, Kayla - Zak, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Nelson
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130 comments:

  1. UnknownNovember 11, 2015 at 10:15 PM

    HUNTER BE A PAL PICK BRITNI

    ReplyDelete
  2. UnknownNovember 11, 2015 at 10:16 PM

    12.3% AT THIS POINT IN THE GAME YOU WENT WITH A 12.3%

    ReplyDelete
  3. UnknownNovember 11, 2015 at 10:17 PM

    Austin and Kayla (23.1%) Nelson and Kiki (30.8%) aren't as bad

    ReplyDelete
  4. UnknownNovember 11, 2015 at 10:21 PM

    Your math is different than mine.. According to the chart last week Nelson-Kiki is a 30.8%

    ReplyDelete
  5. Malcolm ConnorNovember 11, 2015 at 10:23 PM

    I don't think Hunter and Britni are a match based on how they act. The math disagrees though

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SaraNovember 11, 2015 at 10:57 PM

      Based on the first matchup, if they are a match, Alec and Stacey aren't.

      Delete
    2. Malcolm ConnorNovember 11, 2015 at 11:16 PM

      That proves it even more. Alec and Stacey seem more like a match off paper

      Delete
    3. UnknownNovember 12, 2015 at 7:51 AM

      I really think Britni is Devin's match and Alec is Kiki's match. With this pairing, Hunter and Hannah makes tons of sense and so does Melanie and Nelson. I think Kayla and Zac are the couple that's the perfect match from episode 1, not Hunter/Britni or Alec/Stacey. The only couple that doesn't make sense to me is Rashida/Mike, but everyone else works out, so they have to be a match.


      Amanda - Chuck
      Britni - Devin
      Cheyenne - Tyler
      Hannah - Hunter
      Kayla - Zak
      Kiki - Alec
      Melanie - Nelson
      Rashida - Mike
      Stacey - Austin

      Delete
    4. UnknownNovember 13, 2015 at 3:06 PM

      This was my theory but then I met Mike on an airplane (true story...) and he didn't tell me who is match is but he told me it wasn't Rashida

      Delete
    5. UnknownNovember 14, 2015 at 2:56 PM

      I'm pretty sure I'm right:
      Amanda and Nelson
      Britni and Tyler
      Cheyenne and Zak
      Hannah and Hunter
      Kayla and Austin
      Kiki and Mike
      Melanie and Chuck
      Rashida and Devin
      Stacey and Alec

      Delete
    6. UnknownNovember 16, 2015 at 10:25 AM

      http://www.mtv.com/video-clips/lbaduj/are-you-the-one-sneak-peek-it-s-all-riding-on-devin-s-shoulders

      this promo proves that Britni and hunter are not a match

      Delete
  6. UnknownNovember 11, 2015 at 10:33 PM

    NOT A MATCH

    ReplyDelete
  7. Dani24November 11, 2015 at 10:39 PM

    This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  8. UnknownNovember 11, 2015 at 10:56 PM

    I HOPE they get a blackout

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. UnknownNovember 11, 2015 at 11:10 PM

      They would have been better off getting a blackout this week then getting these matches. They're almost guaranteed to not get the $ without any more confirmed no matches.

      Delete
  9. Malcolm ConnorNovember 11, 2015 at 10:57 PM

    Yeah this group doesn't deserve to win the show

    ReplyDelete
  10. UnknownNovember 11, 2015 at 10:59 PM

    I'm thinking Alec & Stacey Devin & Rashida

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. UnknownNovember 11, 2015 at 11:07 PM

      Same! How do you feel about Zak with Cheyenne then (since that would rule out the potential of Zak and Hannah)?

      Delete
    2. UnknownNovember 13, 2015 at 3:54 PM

      I like it. Hannah and Zak are one of my favorite couples but it still wouldn't be unfavorable.

      Delete
    3. UnknownNovember 13, 2015 at 3:56 PM

      I like it. Hannah and Zak are one of my favorite couples but it still wouldn't be unfavorable.

      Delete
  11. UnknownNovember 11, 2015 at 11:06 PM

    This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  12. KaylaNovember 11, 2015 at 11:16 PM

    I think Devin and Rasida, Zak and kayla, and Tyler and Chey

    ReplyDelete
  13. Malcolm ConnorNovember 11, 2015 at 11:17 PM

    Gut feeling says Zak and Hannah aren't a match

    ReplyDelete
  14. UnknownNovember 11, 2015 at 11:29 PM

    10 OR 11. STRONG FEELINGS BOUT 10.

    ReplyDelete
  15. AnonymousNovember 11, 2015 at 11:36 PM

    10 or 11

    ReplyDelete
  16. itsjustmeNovember 11, 2015 at 11:36 PM

    I'm feeling 11

    ReplyDelete
  17. Dani24November 11, 2015 at 11:40 PM

    7or 10

    ReplyDelete
  18. UnknownNovember 11, 2015 at 11:45 PM

    Definitely think its 11

    ReplyDelete
  19. UnknownNovember 11, 2015 at 11:46 PM

    Definitely think its 11

    ReplyDelete
  20. UnknownNovember 11, 2015 at 11:48 PM

    Mike and Mel are a repeat from episode 6

    ReplyDelete
  21. UnknownNovember 11, 2015 at 11:55 PM

    #12, but not hating #4

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. UnknownNovember 13, 2015 at 9:38 PM

      #10 is now my pick since Britni and Hunter are not a match

      Delete
  22. UnknownNovember 12, 2015 at 12:06 AM

    I think it's
    Stacey and Alec
    Hannah and Zak
    Britni and Devin
    Amanda and Nelson
    Melanie and Tyler
    Rashida and Chuck
    Cheyanne and Austin
    Kayla and Hunter
    Mike and Kiki

    Anyone agree?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. UnknownNovember 12, 2015 at 9:10 AM

      That's exactly what I have too.

      Delete
    2. guavaNovember 12, 2015 at 11:53 PM

      I agree with Mike/Kiki, Stacey/Alec, Hannah/Zak but then I have Devin/Rashida, Tyler/Cheyenne, Britini/Nelson, Hunter/Amanda, Chuck/Melanie, Kayla/Austin

      Delete
    3. UnknownNovember 13, 2015 at 8:45 PM

      I used the process of elimination (based on truth booths, weekly match ups, and using H/Z and A/S as the pairings) and I agree with all of those pairings.

      Delete
    4. UnknownNovember 16, 2015 at 9:39 PM

      I have these as well. #5

      Delete
  23. ChristatafornowNovember 12, 2015 at 12:07 AM

    I feel like its combo 10

    ReplyDelete
  24. UnknownNovember 12, 2015 at 12:13 AM

    Maybe #5

    ReplyDelete
  25. SierradsargentNovember 12, 2015 at 12:22 AM

    Hannah - Zak
    Rashida - Hunter
    Amanda - Devin
    Melanie - Tyler
    Kiki - Mike
    Stacy - Alec
    Britni - Nelson
    Cheyenne - Austin
    Kayla - Chuck

    And of course Chelsea and Connor

    *did not see that combo btw

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. UnknownNovember 12, 2015 at 12:24 AM

      It's not possible

      Delete
    2. SierradsargentNovember 12, 2015 at 12:32 AM

      Scratch that! It wont work that way because there are only 2 matches in round 4 :(

      Delete
  26. UnknownNovember 12, 2015 at 1:47 AM

    Ok what about this

    Alec & Stacey
    Mike & Kiki
    Zak & Hannah
    Tyler & Amanda
    Hunter & Cheyenne
    Chuck & Mel
    Devin & britni
    Nelson & Rashida
    Austin & Kayla

    And obviously Connor and chelsey

    ReplyDelete
  27. UnknownNovember 12, 2015 at 2:16 AM

    This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  28. UnknownNovember 12, 2015 at 2:18 AM

    It's number 10 on that list...calling it right now

    ReplyDelete
  29. MoniqueNovember 12, 2015 at 2:44 AM

    I'm going to go with others who have said #10. A close second choice was #11.

    That said, I don't think they have any chance of getting 10 perfect matches in the time remaining, which serves them right. They're idiots.

    ReplyDelete
  30. UnknownNovember 12, 2015 at 3:33 AM

    I can't believe I've been wrong about Kayla Mike this whole time. I was shocked when I figured that out.
    I'm still trying to figure out why I'm only coming up with 14 combinations and not the 23.

    ReplyDelete
  31. Jim FowlerNovember 12, 2015 at 8:49 AM

    You can see how non-matches would affect the probabilities by double-clicking on table at http://areyouthe.xyz/

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. MoniqueNovember 12, 2015 at 10:40 PM

      Thanks for the link! That's an awesome table. Plus we now know based on a video preview of the next episode that Britni and Hunter aren't a match, which narrows it down to 15 combinations.

      Delete
  32. UnknownNovember 12, 2015 at 9:35 AM

    #13 for me. Not sure why so many people are convinced it's Alec/Stacey over Britni/Hunter... I have assumed it was B/H since week 1 and her now we see her ex was basically a clone of Hunter. Alec can't stand Stacey and he also makes the most sense as Kiki's match of her remaining 3 options. This group won't win the money for sure.

    ReplyDelete
  33. chelsapNovember 12, 2015 at 9:59 AM

    Ugh I don't know!... I do think Alec and Stacey are a match. And I refuse to think that Alec and kiki are a match...just feels weird. I think Mike and Kiki are a match..so I'm gonna go with 10 or 11

    ReplyDelete
  34. unkonownNovember 12, 2015 at 11:37 AM

    #12 for sure

    ReplyDelete
  35. A CorujaNovember 12, 2015 at 11:45 AM

    I believe it's combo #3.

    ReplyDelete
  36. Katy PerryNovember 12, 2015 at 1:04 PM

    here you can see what probably is a no match for hunter and britni http://www.mtv.com/video-clips/lbaduj/are-you-the-one-sneak-peek-it-s-all-riding-on-devin-s-shoulders

    ReplyDelete
  37. ShariefaNovember 12, 2015 at 2:46 PM

    I see Alec trying so hard just because he is backed in a corner with no other choice, since the odds are so high for her to be his match but part of me really wishes he isn't her match. But I don't want him to be Kiki's either. She best get out of the house along with Chuck.

    ReplyDelete
  38. UnknownNovember 12, 2015 at 3:42 PM

    12!!!

    ReplyDelete
  39. A Fatal Attraction to FlorenceNovember 12, 2015 at 5:37 PM

    I think its 17 or 23!

    ReplyDelete
  40. jenner34November 12, 2015 at 6:56 PM

    The preview on the mtv website shows that they FINALLY sent hunter/britni in the truth booth and they're a confirmed non-match - about 6 weeks too late but oh well.

    So this takes it down to either 9 possibilities (if stacey-alec) or 6 (if kayla-zak)

    what do we think??

    ReplyDelete
  41. UnknownNovember 12, 2015 at 7:06 PM

    Combo 8 for sure!

    ReplyDelete
  42. courtneyNovember 12, 2015 at 7:50 PM

    I think it's 7

    ReplyDelete
  43. ANovember 12, 2015 at 8:57 PM

    ITS BEEN CONFIRMED BRITNI AND HUNTER ARE NOT A MATCH!!!
    Please update the chart. If you look at the sneak peak for ep 9 on mtv.com titled "It's all riding on Devin's shoulders" you can see the no match on the screen for britni and hunter

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. MoniqueNovember 12, 2015 at 10:27 PM

      I just went and watched the video. You're right!!!!! I can't believe MTV released that kind of info ahead of time. Crazy!

      I'm happy though because my pick was Alec & Stacey over Hunter & Britni. Yay!

      Delete
  44. UnknownNovember 12, 2015 at 9:32 PM

    The only thing that makes sense to me is #7. I can't see a situation where Alec/Stacey, Zak/Hannah and Mike/Kiki aren't all matches.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. UnknownNovember 12, 2015 at 9:35 PM

      Actually #5 is totally possible as well!

      Delete
    2. Otto ReadmoreNovember 12, 2015 at 11:21 PM

      I see #5, but for #7 the one couple I don't get is Britni and Tyler

      Delete
    3. guavaNovember 12, 2015 at 11:58 PM

      Ok I agree with your combinations so then it would also be Mike/Kiki, Devin/Rashida, Tyler/Cheyenne, Britini/Nelson, Hunter/Amanda, Chuck/Melanie, Kayla/Austin in my opinion

      Delete
  45. OpiniõesNovember 12, 2015 at 11:27 PM

    but is mike out of the show? the preview for next episode shows him leaving the house. do you think they will tell us/them hes macth? what does this mean omg

    ReplyDelete
  46. guavaNovember 12, 2015 at 11:44 PM

    The strongest matches I have are:
    Alect & Stacey
    Hunter & Britini
    Devin & Rashida
    Tyler & Cheyenne
    Hanna & Zak

    At first I thought Cheyenne and Zak were a match but Hannah and Zak also said together when there were 3 beams and they seem to get along well. I think the stronger match is Alec and Stacey which would mean that Hunter and Britini are not a match. But then that would mean that Hunter is Hannah's match. So crazy!

    ReplyDelete
  47. Otto ReadmoreNovember 12, 2015 at 11:47 PM

    A few things:

    1) Didn't they all say at the beginnign of the season that it was a bad idea to keep sending the same person into the truth booth to figure out their match? Clearly, sending Nelson and Kiki in was tempting, but the group should have known better by now.

    2) Looking at the sneak peek for next week, it seems they're actually putting their actually using their heads to figure out the math. What I don't get is why Devin can use strategy but when Austin says to use strategy it's a dirty word. Maybe because the guys followed his advice terribly that week? Who knows.

    3) I think the group needs to take some of Amanda's possibilities off the board if they want to win. I'm also thinking that if they find Amanda and Britni's match on the girl's side and Austin and Hunter's on the guy side, they'll figure out the rest rather easily.

    My pick is #16, Rashida and Mike I don't get, but everyone else makes sense

    ReplyDelete
  48. guavaNovember 13, 2015 at 12:05 AM

    This is the new updated matches if Hunter/Britini are definetly confirmed no match which it looks like they in the sneak peek. I did these based on who I think make the most sense and already have some chemistry with each other but it most of the matches also aligns with their highest percentages. The only ones I have trouble with is Hannah could also be Hunter's match but then who would be Amanda's match?

    Mike/Kiki
    Alec/Stacey
    Devin/Rashida
    Tyler/Cheyenne
    Hannah/Zak
    Britini/Nelson
    Hunter/Amanda
    Chuck/Melanie
    Kayla/Austin
    **Connor/Chelsea

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. jenner34November 13, 2015 at 4:34 PM

      I think amanda's match is nelson, they have a very similar temperament

      Delete
    2. guavaNovember 13, 2015 at 7:54 PM

      Yeah that is true. They are both into themselves and care about appearances. Who is Hunter's match, that is what I can not figure out. Could it be Hannah if Zak is Cheyenne's match?

      Delete
    3. UnknownNovember 14, 2015 at 1:32 AM

      I think Hannah is Hunter's match, and Zak and Cheyenne are matches.

      Delete
  49. JublinNovember 13, 2015 at 12:49 AM

    Sticking with my same matchups from last week and going with #10.
    I'm all in!

    ReplyDelete
  50. AcaroNovember 13, 2015 at 4:15 AM

    Amanda/Hunter
    Britni/Nelson
    Connor/Chelsey
    Devin/Kayla
    Austin/Cheyenne
    Chuck/Rashida
    Mike/Kiki
    Tyler/Melanie
    Zak/Hannah
    Alec/Stacey

    ReplyDelete
  51. KevinNovember 13, 2015 at 4:20 AM

    I'm sticking with #10 this week, too, like many of you. I think the Stacy/Alec match has been a season long "he didn't see it but now he does!" thing. Plus, I've always trusted Britni's early assessment that she came for something different than Hunter.

    Nelson/Amanda seem like hotheads that should have figured each other out weeks ago. Austin & Kayla are both ringleaders for solving the game (albeit with different approaches). Tyler & Britni are the most WTF of the bunch, but I could see his nice guy falling for all the wrong girls finally matching with the country girl.

    ReplyDelete
  52. UnknownNovember 13, 2015 at 9:21 AM

    Yep, eliminate anything with Britni and Hunter:
    http://www.mtv.com/video-clips/lbaduj/are-you-the-one-sneak-peek-it-s-all-riding-on-devin-s-shoulders

    ReplyDelete
  53. UnknownNovember 13, 2015 at 1:19 PM

    i don't see this combo up there for some reason? But it makes sense with all of the beams:
    Conner+ Chelsey
    Chuck+ Melanie
    Devin+ Rashida
    Hunter+ Hannah
    Mike+ Britni
    Nelson+ Amanda
    Tyler+ Cheyenne
    Alec+ Kiki
    Zak+ Kayla
    Austin+ Stacey

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. UnknownNovember 17, 2015 at 2:29 PM

      I think your right.
      1. Chelsey-Connor, Kayla-Zak
      2.0
      3. Chelsey-Connor , Rashida-Devin, Cheyenne-Tyler
      4. Connor-Chelsey, Austin-Stacey
      5. Connor-Chelsey, Kayla-Zak
      6.Connor-Chelsey, Zak-Kayla, Devin-Rashida 7. Chelsey-Connor, Melanie-Chuck, Cheyenne-Tyler
      8.Connor-Chelsey, Tyler-Cheyenne, Devin-Rashida

      Delete
  54. UnknownNovember 13, 2015 at 1:52 PM

    Connor - Chelsey
    Alec - Stacey
    Nelson - Amanda
    Kiki - Mike
    Cheyenne - Tyler
    Zak - Hannah
    Kayla - Austin
    Devin - Rashida
    Britni - Hunter
    Chuck - Melanie

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ShariefaNovember 13, 2015 at 6:10 PM

      This isn't possible. You got to think of it like this. If these are your perfect matches. The last match up should've had 5 beams. Coz 5 of those couples say together. There were only 3 beams which means the couples you have aren't all right.

      Delete
  55. natalie464November 13, 2015 at 4:06 PM

    Hey guys, it's Ryan Devlin here. I'm 100% sure it's #5. Trust me. I know.

    ReplyDelete
  56. UnknownNovember 13, 2015 at 8:42 PM

    #7. The closest I can get to my original guess which isn't possible so I gotta go this way.

    ReplyDelete
  57. ErinNovember 13, 2015 at 10:20 PM

    Why are Rashida and Zak not possibly a match? I think they are both kinda quirky and have potential.

    ReplyDelete
  58. UnknownNovember 14, 2015 at 1:28 AM

    It is absolutely without a doubt #10. I would wager on it.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. UnknownNovember 14, 2015 at 1:29 AM

      Chelsey + Connor
      Rashida + Devin
      Stacey + Alec
      Hannah + Hunter
      Cheyenne + Zak
      Amanda + Nelson
      Kayla + Austin
      Melanie + Chuck
      Kiki + Mike
      Britni + Tyler

      Delete
    2. MoniqueNovember 15, 2015 at 2:25 AM

      This is my guess as well. I can't wait to find out if they get all 10 matches on Wednesday! If I were a betting woman, I'd say no.

      Delete
  59. UnknownNovember 14, 2015 at 1:44 AM

    I've been updating a similar chart on the Are You The One wikipedia page.
    With that chart, here is most likely matching:
    Alec, Stacey
    Austin, Kayla
    Chuck, Melanie
    Connor, Chelsey
    Devin, Rashida
    Hunter, Hannah
    Mike, Kiki
    Nelson, Amanda
    Tyler, Britni
    Zak, Cheyenne

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AnoukNovember 15, 2015 at 3:40 PM

      Hi! Since we know now that Hunter & Britni are no a match, we know that in Match-Up 5 the perfect matches would be either Chelsey/Connor & Kayla/Zak or Chelsey/Conner & Alex/Stacy. So all the other matches would be wrong, right?

      Delete
  60. UnknownNovember 14, 2015 at 3:05 AM

    My guess is this
    Amanda/Hunter
    Kayla/Austin
    Rashida/Devin
    Stacey/Alec
    Melanie/Tyler
    Mike/Kiki
    Nelson/Brit
    Chuck/Cheyann
    Zak/Hannah

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. UnknownNovember 14, 2015 at 3:10 AM

      I'm not 100% sold on Melanie and Tyler or Nelson and Britni. Both couples only say together once, and it was in the fourth match up, they got 2 beams of light and Conner and Chelsea where also sitting together at that particular matchup ceremony.

      Delete
    2. UnknownNovember 14, 2015 at 3:10 AM

      Sat

      Delete
  61. UnknownNovember 14, 2015 at 3:28 PM

    For me is #23:
    Amanda - Alec
    Britni - Austin
    Cheyenne - Tyler
    Hannah - Hunter
    Kayla - Zak
    Kiki - Mike
    Melanie - Chuck
    Rashida - Devin
    Stacey - Nelson

    ReplyDelete
  62. jenner34November 14, 2015 at 3:53 PM

    a couple who appear on a lot of predictions but i'm having the most trouble understanding is hannah/hunter, have they even had an on screen conversation?? what qualities do they share? i just dont get it

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. MoniqueNovember 15, 2015 at 2:28 AM

      I feel like this cast in general hasn't done a lot of mingling/exploring various options for their matches, which has been their main downfall. I'm not sure what exactly Hannah and Hunter would have in common, but I still have them paired up in my guess (#10).

      Delete
    2. jenner34November 15, 2015 at 5:53 AM

      yeah very true! i just feel like with others i can see why they'd be a match even if they haven't talked much - amanda/nelson, mel/chuck - and hannah/hunter just seem like 2 people who would never go for each other.

      Delete
  63. UnknownNovember 14, 2015 at 5:38 PM

    10. Amanda - Nelson, Britni - Tyler, Cheyenne - Zak, Hannah - Hunter, Kayla - Austin, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Alec

    ReplyDelete
  64. ~*Trisha*~November 15, 2015 at 2:54 AM

    I am pretty sure it is number 11. As long as Rashida and Devin are a match then it should be:

    Chelsey & Connor
    Stacey & Alec
    Rashida & Devin
    Kiki & Mike
    Kayla & Tyler
    Britini & Austin
    Cheyenne & Zak
    Hannah & Nelson
    Melanie & Chuck
    Amanda & Hunter

    ReplyDelete
  65. UnknownNovember 15, 2015 at 2:15 PM

    #5

    ReplyDelete
  66. AnoukNovember 15, 2015 at 3:25 PM

    Hi! Does anybody understund where the unconfirmed matches at the wikipedia page come from?

    ReplyDelete
  67. Hanniec88November 15, 2015 at 4:57 PM

    Wait did anybody see the new videos they posted including the one about Kiki trying to steal Alec from Stacey? Alec says for the final matchup ceremony he needs to decide between Amanda or Kiki. I'm so confused. Wondering if Stacey and Alec got a truth booth in the finale.

    ReplyDelete
  68. Hanniec88November 15, 2015 at 4:58 PM

    http://www.mtv.com/video-clips/p2i3u8/are-you-the-one-sneak-peek-is-kiki-stealing-alec-from-stacey

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yowza!November 16, 2015 at 6:03 AM

      Good catch! Means there are actually 8 possibilities remaining, once you eliminate both Britni-Hunter and Alec-Stacy:

      3; 4; 15; 16; 17; 18; 19; 23

      Delete
    2. Hanniec88November 16, 2015 at 1:57 PM

      Arrrrg I don't want it to be true. I was rooting for Stacey/Alec

      Delete
  69. UnknownNovember 15, 2015 at 6:31 PM

    23 seems like an okay pick to me

    ReplyDelete
  70. ClaraNovember 16, 2015 at 1:30 PM

    #18 or #19

    ReplyDelete
  71. MelanieNovember 16, 2015 at 2:08 PM

    It's number 16. Calling it now!

    ReplyDelete
  72. ShariefaNovember 16, 2015 at 5:46 PM

    Wait so if. Truth Booth 9 was for Britni and Hunter and 10 was for Alec and Stacey. Does that mean.. Zak and Kayla was the other second perfect match from the very first match up ceremony?

    ReplyDelete
  73. ShariefaNovember 16, 2015 at 6:03 PM

    Kayla and Zak are indeed a perfect match. It's 23.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hanniec88November 16, 2015 at 7:25 PM

      You actually could be right judging from the video mtv released that is the pairs they all pick for the final matchup ceremony https://amp.twimg.com/v/931ea562-f2ff-4dc0-a0da-c1a4afae04dd

      Delete
  74. Hanniec88November 16, 2015 at 7:18 PM

    Yes assuming Alec and Stacey were truth booth #10 and found out that they are not a match ( which at this point seems like the only way to explain why he would say Amanda instead of Stacey) which would mean Zak and Kayla are 100% a match. I really didn't see them as a match. I'm wondering who Mikes match is since it looks like he gets kicked off the show. Maybe it's Stacey? Wondering if his match has to leave too.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hanniec88November 16, 2015 at 7:27 PM

      Never mind they don't kick off the girl you can tell from this video that Kiki is sitting alone at the final matchup. It also appears that they pick option 23 for the final ceremony

      https://amp.twimg.com/v/931ea562-f2ff-4dc0-a0da-c1a4afae04dd

      Delete
  75. ClaraNovember 17, 2015 at 9:29 AM

    so...is it #23? Didn't see that coming, I hope season 4 is not as frustating as this one...

    ReplyDelete
  76. Hanniec88November 17, 2015 at 11:10 AM

    Well their final guess is 23 but they could still be wrong.

    ReplyDelete
  77. MelanieNovember 17, 2015 at 11:55 AM

    Technically they have 2 more match up ceremonies left... that video could be from #9 right?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ShariefaNovember 17, 2015 at 12:53 PM

      No it can't because Alec spoke about choosing between Kiki and Amanda for the last match up ceremony. I'm sure he still chose Stacey for the 9th one. The video was also captioned "Season Finale" .. which has to suggest last episode.

      Delete
  78. AnonymousNovember 17, 2015 at 1:26 PM

    can anyone take the time to explain to me the logic behind the inferred non-matches following this episode? thanks!!

    ReplyDelete
  79. UnknownNovember 17, 2015 at 3:22 PM

    I say #10

    ReplyDelete
  80. UnknownNovember 18, 2015 at 4:07 AM

    #14!

    ReplyDelete
  81. UnknownNovember 18, 2015 at 8:20 PM

    Ok now with new (spoiler) information I am almost entirely sure the only possibility is #18. Now the surprise will be to see if they actually get it!

    ReplyDelete
  82. UnknownNovember 19, 2015 at 12:02 AM

    Wooooooooooo

    ReplyDelete

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