Quick recap of last week:
- The group still only has 1 confirmed perfect match
- We've confirmed Asaf is a d-bag
- Gio is no longer ring shopping for Kaylen
- Every dude loves Julia
- There were 4 beams of light at the last match up ceremony
10:02 - Stephen is clearly over Gio's drama.
10:03 - Tori and Morgan (19.6%) are my heroes for their little late night make over for John
10:05 - I wonder what Julia considers "cheesy."
10:06 - Challenge time!!! Ryan is busting out the beer goggles... which are probably necessary since these kids probably don't know how to operate sober.
10:08 - Finishing order is Stephen, Prosper, Gio, and Morgan....but it's all about how many you got right.
10:13 - Prosper and Gio advance. Prosper picks Nicole (18.7%) and Gio brings Kaylen (66.7%). I WONDER WHO THE GROUP WILL VOTE IN?!?!?!?!
10:14 - Morgan is licking whipped cream off Tori's foot. Somewhat disturbing and gross.
10:15 - Victoria says she is excited to have Cam (10.5%) be aggressive, but she doesn't look that excited.
10:21 - Cam has "no idea" that Victoria and him hooked up. How does one not remember that? Come on now.
10:23 - This date looks AMAZING.
10:25 - Kaylen is speaking some real truth right now and OMG THEY ONLY HAVE KNOWN EACH OTHER FOR A WEEK AND A HALF?!?!?!?!
10:26 - Gio is convinced that Julia is his match, but odds are not in their favor.
Truth Booth
10:28 - Gio and Kaylen to the Truth Booth....shocking. Kaylen is clearly elated to be there; Gio not so much.
10:32 - THEY AREN'T A MATCH!!!! Woah. Kaylen is taking this MUCH better than I would have thought. This leaves 73 combinations. Most notably, Alyssa-Sam and Camille-Asaf are extremely likely at this point. Could have an inferred perfect match later in the episode...
| Asaf | Cam | Cameron | Giovanni | John | Morgan | Prosper | Sam | Stephen | Tyler | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alyssa | X | 1.4% | X | 2.7% | X | X | X | 95.9% | X | X |
| Camille | 80.8% | X | X | 5.5% | X | 2.7% | 5.5% | X | 1.4% | 4.1% |
| Emma | 1.4% | 12.3% | X | 15.1% | 15.1% | 9.6% | 32.9% | X | 5.5% | 8.2% |
| Francesca | 11.0% | 5.5% | X | 9.6% | 13.7% | 16.4% | 12.3% | X | 6.8% | 24.7% |
| Julia | X | 32.9% | X | 20.5% | X | 15.1% | 9.6% | X | 17.8% | 4.1% |
| Kaylen | 5.5% | 13.7% | X | X | 19.2% | 13.7% | 15.1% | 2.7% | 16.4% | 13.7% |
| Mikala | X | X | Match | X | X | X | X | X | X | X |
| Nicole | 1.4% | 6.8% | X | 20.5% | 11.0% | 16.4% | 17.8% | X | 15.1% | 11.0% |
| Tori | X | 6.8% | X | 13.7% | 8.2% | 17.8% | X | 1.4% | 30.1% | 21.9% |
| Victoria | X | 20.5% | X | 12.3% | 32.9% | 8.2% | 6.8% | X | 6.8% | 12.3% |
10:33 - And what are the odds of Gio having a threesome? I can confidently say 0%.
10:35 - Within 2 minutes, Gio has successfully turned off Kaylen, Camille, Francesca, and Tori. That leaves him with 5 girls for that threesome.
10:39 - Tori is taking the reins here on devising a strategy...not sure if I agree with it, but at least it's a plan
10:40 - Guys, words are super cool
10:45 - Victoria picks Prosper... which messes up the plan Tori tried to put in place and then Prosper proceeds to crush Nicole's heart.
10:54 - Gio continues his mission to turn off every single girl in the house by commenting on Camille's nipples. Good work, dude.
Matchup Ceremony
- Emma - Cam (repeat from episode 4)
- Victoria - Prosper
- Kaylen - Tyler
- Nicole - Stephen (repeat from episode 1)
- Camille - Asaf (repeat from episode 4)
- Alyssa - Sam (repeat from episodes 1, 3, 4)
- Julia - Morgan (repeat from episode 1)
- Tori - John
- Francesca - Giovanni
Instant win possible: No, as they could only repeat 2 matchups from episode 1.
Maximum possible number of lights: 7
Most likely number of lights: 3
10:56 - Keeping Alyssa and Sam together is the big reason they're guaranteed not to blackout.
4 lights means 21 combinations remain.
| Asaf | Cam | Cameron | Giovanni | John | Morgan | Prosper | Sam | Stephen | Tyler | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alyssa | X | 4.8% | X | 9.5% | X | X | X | 85.7% | X | X |
| Camille | 95.2% | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 4.8% |
| Emma | X | 9.5% | X | 4.8% | 19.0% | 4.8% | 38.1% | X | 9.5% | 14.3% |
| Francesca | X | 9.5% | X | 19.0% | 14.3% | 19.0% | 4.8% | X | X | 33.3% |
| Julia | X | 19.0% | X | 28.6% | X | 28.6% | 9.5% | X | 9.5% | 4.8% |
| Kaylen | 4.8% | 19.0% | X | X | 14.3% | 4.8% | 14.3% | 9.5% | 14.3% | 19.0% |
| Mikala | X | X | Match | X | X | X | X | X | X | X |
| Nicole | X | 4.8% | X | 4.8% | 19.0% | 19.0% | 23.8% | X | 28.6% | X |
| Tori | X | 14.3% | X | 19.0% | 4.8% | 14.3% | X | 4.8% | 23.8% | 19.0% |
| Victoria | X | 19.0% | X | 14.3% | 28.6% | 9.5% | 9.5% | X | 14.3% | 4.8% |
Those 21 combinations below the jump...
- Alyssa - Sam, Camille - Tyler, Emma - Prosper, Francesca - Giovanni, Julia - Cam, Kaylen - Asaf, Nicole - Stephen, Tori - Morgan, Victoria - John
- Alyssa - Cam, Camille - Asaf, Emma - Prosper, Francesca - Tyler, Julia - Morgan, Kaylen - Sam, Nicole - Stephen, Tori - Giovanni, Victoria - John
- Alyssa - Giovanni, Camille - Asaf, Emma - Prosper, Francesca - Tyler, Julia - Morgan, Kaylen - Sam, Nicole - Stephen, Tori - Cam, Victoria - John
- Alyssa - Sam, Camille - Asaf, Emma - Morgan, Francesca - John, Julia - Giovanni, Kaylen - Tyler, Nicole - Prosper, Tori - Stephen, Victoria - Cam
- Alyssa - Sam, Camille - Asaf, Emma - John, Francesca - Giovanni, Julia - Prosper, Kaylen - Stephen, Nicole - Cam, Tori - Morgan, Victoria - Tyler
- Alyssa - Sam, Camille - Asaf, Emma - Prosper, Francesca - Tyler, Julia - Giovanni, Kaylen - John, Nicole - Stephen, Tori - Cam, Victoria - Morgan
- Alyssa - Sam, Camille - Asaf, Emma - Prosper, Francesca - Tyler, Julia - Giovanni, Kaylen - Stephen, Nicole - Morgan, Tori - John, Victoria - Cam
- Alyssa - Sam, Camille - Asaf, Emma - Stephen, Francesca - Giovanni, Julia - Tyler, Kaylen - Prosper, Nicole - John, Tori - Morgan, Victoria - Cam
- Alyssa - Sam, Camille - Asaf, Emma - Prosper, Francesca - Tyler, Julia - Morgan, Kaylen - John, Nicole - Giovanni, Tori - Cam, Victoria - Stephen
- Alyssa - Sam, Camille - Asaf, Emma - Prosper, Francesca - John, Julia - Stephen, Kaylen - Tyler, Nicole - Morgan, Tori - Giovanni, Victoria - Cam
- Alyssa - Giovanni, Camille - Asaf, Emma - Prosper, Francesca - Tyler, Julia - Morgan, Kaylen - Cam, Nicole - Stephen, Tori - Sam, Victoria - John
- Alyssa - Sam, Camille - Asaf, Emma - John, Francesca - Tyler, Julia - Giovanni, Kaylen - Cam, Nicole - Morgan, Tori - Stephen, Victoria - Prosper
- Alyssa - Sam, Camille - Asaf, Emma - Giovanni, Francesca - Morgan, Julia - Stephen, Kaylen - Cam, Nicole - John, Tori - Tyler, Victoria - Prosper
- Alyssa - Sam, Camille - Asaf, Emma - Stephen, Francesca - Giovanni, Julia - Cam, Kaylen - Prosper, Nicole - Morgan, Tori - Tyler, Victoria - John
- Alyssa - Sam, Camille - Asaf, Emma - John, Francesca - Cam, Julia - Giovanni, Kaylen - Tyler, Nicole - Prosper, Tori - Stephen, Victoria - Morgan
- Alyssa - Sam, Camille - Asaf, Emma - Cam, Francesca - Morgan, Julia - Giovanni, Kaylen - Prosper, Nicole - John, Tori - Tyler, Victoria - Stephen
- Alyssa - Sam, Camille - Asaf, Emma - Tyler, Francesca - John, Julia - Morgan, Kaylen - Cam, Nicole - Prosper, Tori - Stephen, Victoria - Giovanni
- Alyssa - Sam, Camille - Asaf, Emma - John, Francesca - Morgan, Julia - Cam, Kaylen - Tyler, Nicole - Prosper, Tori - Giovanni, Victoria - Stephen
- Alyssa - Sam, Camille - Asaf, Emma - Tyler, Francesca - Cam, Julia - Morgan, Kaylen - John, Nicole - Prosper, Tori - Stephen, Victoria - Giovanni
- Alyssa - Sam, Camille - Asaf, Emma - Cam, Francesca - Morgan, Julia - Prosper, Kaylen - Stephen, Nicole - John, Tori - Tyler, Victoria - Giovanni
- Alyssa - Sam, Camille - Asaf, Emma - Tyler, Francesca - Prosper, Julia - Cam, Kaylen - Morgan, Nicole - Stephen, Tori - Giovanni, Victoria - John
Wow...
ReplyDeleteAll that progress and then someone blows the whole thing up.
ReplyDeleteKaylen can do so much better than him. Thank god she dodged a bullet!
ReplyDeleteGio is so gross.
ReplyDeleteI actually think I hate Gio more than Asaf now. And that's saying something!
DeletePoor Nicole. She's such a sweetheart. I hope she finds a match.
ReplyDeleteHow can you assume some of those are no matches without confirmation? Is the percent just really low?
ReplyDeleteThe computer program I built runs through all of the possible matchups and measures them against all of the information so far. If there is an X, that means none of the matchups left fit all of the Matchup Ceremonies and Truth Booths we've seen so far.
DeleteI am interested in mathematics, combinatorics and computer science and I think what you're doing is fantastic and really interesting. Do you think you can share your program?
DeleteDon't forget Asaf and Camille.
ReplyDeleteBased on the previews, Alyssa and Sam are sent to the Truth Booth. Given the low probability that they are not a match, a preview showing a blackout, and the fact that confirmed matches are excluded in the calculation of a blackout, I have a feeling that next week is a blackout. As I do not foresee Sam and Alyssa consciously uncoupling and believe that there will be a blackout this season (based on the previews), next week is a blackout. A confirmed match and a blackout in one week, though, would leave 11 combinations, I think. So, would it be possible for the show to end early?
ReplyDeleteYes, but there would still be 10 episodes. Did you see the first season? On the first season, they figured it out in only 9 match ceremonies. But MTV had to produce 10 episodes. So they took what would normally be one episode and they stretched it out into two episodes (by building up the storyline for a relationship drama going on in the house).
DeleteIt may be a blackout next episode but it isn't the one shown in the season trailer as the clothes the contestants and ryan are wearing don't match with the teaser for episode 6.
DeleteSam & Alyssa are sitting together (and at the back like Cameron/Mikala) so I think they are a confirmed perfect match in the next episode. It actually would help the contestants more if they weren't a match though!
It may be a blackout next episode but it isn't the one shown in the season trailer as the clothes the contestants and ryan are wearing don't match with the teaser for episode 6.
DeleteSam & Alyssa are sitting together (and at the back like Cameron/Mikala) so I think they are a confirmed perfect match in the next episode. It actually would help the contestants more if they weren't a match though!
I agree with your postulation, Susie. Based on tendencies I've observed by the producers and their use of the teaser, Alyssa and Sam will be confirmed next week. How do they manage to blackout? Is it because they foolishly separate Camille and Asaf? Or, which would be the most interesting scenario statistically (from my perspective), perhaps they confirm Sam/Alyssa (who should not be together because Sam is a sexist Trump supporter while Alyssa is a female that is definitively not white) and then Camille/Asaf using two truth booths in a row, leaving the cluster of the unknowns to amp up drama and lose all the money. That scenario would cause a blackout in week 8. Now THAT would make things interesting.
DeleteGAME THEORY IS SO MUCH FUN THAT I INCORPORATE IT INTO THE TRASHY TELEVISION I WATCH.
DeleteGAME THEORY IS SO MUCH FUN THAT I INCORPORATE IT INTO THE TRASHY TELEVISION I WATCH.
DeleteI agree with your postulation, Susie. Based on tendencies I've observed by the producers and their use of the teaser, Alyssa and Sam will be confirmed next week. How do they manage to blackout? Is it because they foolishly separate Camille and Asaf? Or, which would be the most interesting scenario statistically (from my perspective), perhaps they confirm Sam/Alyssa (who should not be together because Sam is a sexist Trump supporter while Alyssa is a female that is definitively not white) and then Camille/Asaf using two truth booths in a row, leaving the cluster of the unknowns to amp up drama and lose all the money. That scenario would cause a blackout in week 8. Now THAT would make things interesting.
DeleteMaybe Salyssa are confirmed next week but also notice that Emma finds her PM in the truth booth, you can see it on the screen when Gio and Kaylen are fighting...And I think it can be Prosper because the name seems to have a P and the town NY so...
DeleteAnyway, thay could be as well the reason why they blackout in week 7 or 8
Since there were 4 lights in episode 4 and episode 5, and they repeated 3 couples from episode 4 can't we assume those 3 couples are the matches in episodes 4 and 5 (the 4th being Mikala & Cameron)? In that case, we now have a lot of inferred couples
ReplyDeleteOnly two of the possible outcomes include the 3 repeats. I don't feel confident in either possible outcome for Kaylen (Prosper or Stephen) and I don't believe Morgan is matched with Francesca but who really knows this season
DeleteWow, just wow. Despite them ignoring their original plan going into the matchup (which I thought was a pretty good one), they actually gained a ton of information. Whether or not they'll be able to see it or not... only time will tell.
ReplyDeleteI sincerely hope next week then send either Camille + Asaf OR Sam + Alyssa into the truth booth. It seemed like Sam and Alyssa were on a date next episode, so here's hoping they're sent in.
From what I gathered in my own calculations John, Prosper and Tyler finding their matches would give us pretty much most the info needed to figure out the rest. But I'm also assuming a few things along the way to get to this conclution.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteI think number 6:
ReplyDeleteAlyssa - Sam
Camille - Asaf
Emma - Prosper
Francesca - Tyler
Julia - Giovanni
Kaylen - John
Nicole - Stephen
Tori - Cam
Victoria – Morgan
Wouldn't it be awesome if the biggest D-bag* in the house (Gio) was a perfect match with the biggest tease** in the house (Julia)?
Delete*The biggest D-bag award has so far been a three way race between John, Asaf and Gio. Of course once Stephen finds out that Julia isn't his PM, I predict a four-way tie with some sort of "I don't care what the experts say" rant.
**Is it really fair to call Julia a tease? But what is a better description for "person most likely to invite you for a long visit to the friend zone?"
Your blog is my favorite thing ever I think you're my perfect match.
ReplyDeleteBased on the 'Super tease' next episode there is no blackout (look at Mikameron clothes) so Sam and Alyssa could be a PM
ReplyDeleteI think #10 is a strong combo:
Alyssa - Sam
Camille - Asaf
Emma - Prosper
Francesca - John
Julia - Stephen
Kaylen - Tyler
Nicole - Morgan
Tori - Giovanni
Victoria - Cam
According to my code (that I use to update the Wikipedia page), the most likely matching is:
ReplyDeleteAlyssa - Sam, Camille - Asaf, Emma - Prosper, Francesca - Tyler, Julia - Giovanni, Kaylen - John, Nicole - Stephen, Tori - Cam, Victoria - Morgan
To run the code yourself, check it out here! https://github.com/nickuhlenhuth/AreYouTheOne
In the preview it appears Victoria is sat next to Morgan when they black out, so unless it is clever editing to throw us off the scent, this combo isn't right.
DeleteHow do you know what the most likely matching is? It seems to me that, while one specific coupling may be more likely than another, all of the remaining combinations of 10 perfect matches are equally likely.
DeleteWhen there are 4 light beams, that doesn't include Mikayla and Cam who are already matched. Because you included them into this, none of these combos will work out.
ReplyDeleteThe 4 light beams included Mikala and Cameron. So they got 3 new unconfirmed matches with the other light beams.
DeleteWhy is it that Camille only has two possible matches left?
ReplyDeleteI now see the season trailer with the black out scene where victoria is matched with morgan so number 6 and 15 cannot be true
ReplyDeleteMy guess is 1 or 8 I think that Morgan and Tori are match
ReplyDelete