10:03 - ooooo Gio is in TROUBLE...the Kaylen/Gio honeymoon is over. Guys, here is the lesson: if you're in a committed relationship of 3 days, don't throw pie at other girls
10:07 - Gio decides Making up in the boom boom room is the best thing...good call...
10:08 - What girl wouldn't like a guy that eats food off her butt? That's a real man
POOPED HIS PANTS TWICE IN THE PAST 5 YEARS!!! WHAT?!?!?! ARE YOU KIDDING ME???
10:10 - These guys are gross. So, so gross.
Challenge winners is Emma! She gets to pick the dates? Interesting...
Emma goes with Stephen...he pooped his pants (twice) and only a 7.2%
She chooses Morgan for Julia. Morgan's pumped (actually the best choice at 18.5%)
Tori and Asaf...not shocking. Probably not a match (only 9.1%)
10:18 - Boys night...Gio is in trouble and confused about his ENTIRE life right now.
10:20 - Trojan product placement...nicely done.
10:26 - Oh Tori, Tori, Tori...you are going to be so sad when he tells you he did Francesca (sponsored by Trojan)
10:27 - ....and Tori is upset. Not shocking. It's OK, Tori he won't be your match.
10:30 - Ryan rubbing salt into Kaylen's wounds by checking in with the house's 'Solid couple.' Burnnnnnn
10:30 - But Kaylen and Gio have taken a sudden turn for the worse!
10:33 - Asaf and Tori are off to the truth booth....
Truth Booth
10:36: NOT A MATCH!! This leaves 1,153 possible combinations.
| Asaf | Cam | Cameron | Giovanni | John | Morgan | Prosper | Sam | Stephen | Tyler | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alyssa | 8.6% | 9.1% | X | 3.8% | 10.2% | 4.2% | 8.6% | 38.2% | 7.2% | 10.0% |
| Camille | 33.4% | 8.4% | X | 5.2% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 11.7% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 8.8% |
| Emma | 8.3% | 7.6% | X | 4.2% | 14.1% | 8.9% | 34.4% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 8.3% |
| Francesca | 16.2% | 10.6% | X | 5.4% | 12.7% | 23.3% | 10.6% | 3.3% | 8.0% | 9.9% |
| Julia | 10.6% | 9.4% | X | 6.6% | X | 18.5% | 11.6% | 10.6% | 9.9% | 22.9% |
| Kaylen | 4.7% | 5.4% | X | 59.4% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 5.6% |
| Mikala | X | X | Match | X | X | X | X | X | X | X |
| Nicole | 8.9% | 23.0% | X | 5.7% | 8.7% | 11.4% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 10.9% | 12.6% |
| Tori | X | 9.9% | X | 4.4% | 12.2% | 9.7% | X | 10.0% | 39.5% | 14.2% |
| Victoria | 9.3% | 16.7% | X | 5.3% | 25.8% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 7.6% |
10:38 - Stephen is all about Julia. Julia, look out, he pooped his pants....twice
10:40 - Gio is all about Julia (6.6%), not Kaylen (59.4%)
10:44 - Since when are bralettes a replacement for a shirt??
Matchup Ceremony
- Morgan - Tori
- Prosper - Nicole
- Asaf - Camille (repeat from episodes 2 and 3)
- John - Victoria (repeat from episode 3)
- Giovanni - Kaylen (repeat from episodes 1-3)
- Stephen - Julia
- Tyler - Francesca
- Sam - Alyssa (repeat from episodes 1 and 3)
- Cam - Emma
Blackout odds: 2.8% (32 possible blackout combinations of 1,153 remaining).
Instant win possible: No, as they could only repeat 2 matchups from episode 2
Maximum possible number of lights: 8, which would reveal the winning combination.
Most likely number of lights: 3
4 lights mean 219 combinations remain.
| Asaf | Cam | Cameron | Giovanni | John | Morgan | Prosper | Sam | Stephen | Tyler | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alyssa | 5.0% | 10.0% | X | 0.9% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 9.1% | 49.8% | 6.8% | 10.5% |
| Camille | 53.9% | 6.8% | X | 1.8% | 3.7% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 9.1% |
| Emma | 7.3% | 14.2% | X | 5.0% | 11.9% | 9.6% | 24.2% | 7.3% | 12.3% | 8.2% |
| Francesca | 13.2% | 13.2% | X | 3.2% | 13.7% | 15.1% | 14.2% | 2.3% | 7.8% | 17.4% |
| Julia | 8.7% | 13.7% | X | 6.8% | X | 15.5% | 13.7% | 9.1% | 19.2% | 13.2% |
| Kaylen | 1.8% | 4.6% | X | 66.7% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 0.9% | 5.5% | 4.6% |
| Mikala | X | X | Match | X | X | X | X | X | X | X |
| Nicole | 5.9% | 13.2% | X | 6.8% | 5.9% | 14.6% | 18.7% | 9.6% | 11.0% | 14.2% |
| Tori | X | 13.7% | X | 4.6% | 12.8% | 19.6% | X | 10.5% | 23.3% | 15.5% |
| Victoria | 4.1% | 10.5% | X | 4.1% | 40.6% | 10.5% | 9.1% | 4.1% | 9.6% | 7.3% |
Emma was hilarious. Gotta say watching Julia obsess over herself like that made me roll my eyes. "When girls are jealous of you..", Ugh.
ReplyDeleteJulia is by far the most irritating girl in the house. I couldn't agree more - I rolled my eyes at that comment as well.
DeleteI will say that this season is probably the best out of any of the other ones. Only 200 possible matches and we're not even half way through the show. MUCH better than last season.
ReplyDeleteI'm crossing my fingers they'll send some of these high probability couples into the truth booth next episode. My top picks would be Sam + Alyssa OR Gio + Kaylen - the latter because I'm sick of all their drama. Just find out if they're a match already!
ReplyDeleteHey,
ReplyDeleteYou have 5 couples who you've put as assumed perfect matches but that isn't possible because they've all sat at a matchup ceremony together at the same time and only gotten 4 beams.
Are you referring to the green color? I just put the green color on any matchup that has over 40% chance. We don't assume anything here!
DeleteWhat are people attracted to those that they know are going to treat them like garbage. This (insert adjective here) guy Asaf, has not one, not two, but three girls fawning over him?!?!
ReplyDeleteMy favorite has to be the third Camille, who basically recognizes that he is a jerk, is going to do horrible things, and has been willing to let him screw over the other two girls in the house and finally work his way around to her. In what delusional fantasy does she see any possibility that the two of them will be happy?
Is it me, or does Gio need to start running in the other direction fast when it comes to Kaylen?
ReplyDeleteHe's not fooling anyone with his, "There's a lot going on in my life right now" BS. But at the same time, is the dude not allowed to talk to another woman, or spend any time with friends? Twice Kaylen pulled him aside to have a "Can we talk?" discussion. Is she that insecure that he can't be out of her view for two minutes without some word of reassurance? (Granted Tori looked the other way for ten minutes and Asaf slipped out to the boom boom room.)
What is the calculation you used for the table? For example: what is the calculation to show that the likelihood of Andre and Alicia being a match was originally 9%? Appreciate it :)
ReplyDeleteI just take all 39,916,800 combinations and remove those that don't fit what we've seen on the show. The probability is the percentage of combinations remaining that include that pairing. My computer program can check all of those combinations in seconds.
Delete