10:07: Multiple choice trivia for each girl. Isn't the easiest way to solve this problem to figure out which cable is the longest? Or look at the bottom?
10:09: 1 kid, at least 5 kids, or 6 kids... that's gotta be obvious, right?
10:10: Giovanni - Kaylen (60.7%) and Cam - Julia (23.6%) are good pairings.
10:14: Cameron and Mikala (60.7%) also makes the cut. One of the best possible outcomes for the Truth Booth.
Truth Booth
10:28: It's Cameron and Mikala into the Truth Booth.
10:32: Perfect Match! 10,053 combinations remain.
| Asaf | Cam | Cameron | Giovanni | John | Morgan | Prosper | Sam | Stephen | Tyler | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alyssa | 8.9% | 8.7% | X | 7.2% | 9.9% | 18.5% | 10.1% | 19.0% | 8.9% | 9.0% |
| Camille | 18.4% | 8.7% | X | 7.0% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 21.1% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 8.8% |
| Emma | 8.7% | 8.6% | X | 6.9% | 20.5% | 8.6% | 20.6% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 8.6% |
| Francesca | 18.9% | 8.8% | X | 7.1% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 18.9% | 8.9% | 8.8% |
| Julia | 10.0% | 21.0% | X | 7.6% | X | 21.0% | 11.0% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 9.7% |
| Kaylen | 7.2% | 7.1% | X | 42.0% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.0% |
| Mikala | X | X | Match | X | X | X | X | X | X | X |
| Nicole | 8.9% | 8.9% | X | 7.1% | 21.1% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 18.0% | 8.7% |
| Tori | 9.9% | 9.7% | X | 7.7% | 10.9% | 9.8% | X | 9.9% | 21.0% | 21.0% |
| Victoria | 9.1% | 18.4% | X | 7.3% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 18.5% |
10:35: OK, that scene with Prosper & the glass was pretty crazy. Nobody said these guys were geniuses...
10:36: John is a reality TV producer's dream. He just can't get over Julia.
Matchup Ceremony
- Francesca - Morgan
- Camille - Asaf (repeat from episode 2)
- Nicole - Cam
- Tori - Stephen (repeat from episode 2)
- Victoria - John
- Emma - Prosper (repeat from episode 2)
- Kaylen - Giovanni (repeat from episodes 1 and 2)
- Alyssa - Sam (repeat from episode 1)
- Julia - Tyler
Blackout odds: 15.1% (1,522 possible blackout combinations of 10,053 remaining).
Instant win possible: No, as they could only repeat 2 matchups from episode 2
Maximum possible number of lights: 8, which would reveal the winning combination.
Most likely number of lights: 2
There are 4 lights! 1,296 combinations remain. No episode next week due to July 4 - see you in two weeks!
| Asaf | Cam | Cameron | Giovanni | John | Morgan | Prosper | Sam | Stephen | Tyler | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alyssa | 7.8% | 9.0% | X | 3.5% | 10.4% | 4.8% | 8.7% | 38.4% | 7.6% | 9.8% |
| Camille | 30.3% | 8.5% | X | 5.1% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 12.2% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 9.1% |
| Emma | 7.6% | 7.8% | X | 3.8% | 13.6% | 9.1% | 35.2% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 8.3% |
| Francesca | 14.7% | 10.4% | X | 5.4% | 12.6% | 23.9% | 10.6% | 3.9% | 8.6% | 9.9% |
| Julia | 9.6% | 10.1% | X | 6.3% | X | 18.5% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 24.1% |
| Kaylen | 4.3% | 5.0% | X | 61.8% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 5.4% |
| Mikala | X | X | Match | X | X | X | X | X | X | X |
| Nicole | 8.1% | 23.8% | X | 5.2% | 9.7% | 10.9% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 11.4% | 12.3% |
| Tori | 9.1% | 9.0% | X | 4.0% | 11.1% | 8.8% | X | 9.1% | 35.9% | 12.9% |
| Victoria | 8.4% | 16.5% | X | 5.0% | 26.6% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 8.2% |
I hope camille and asaf are a pair just because i want them out of the house they're both annoying. John just needs to leave. Ive been keeping my chart on paper im glad i found this.
ReplyDeleteAsaf is a douche. lol. John's a moron. So is Julia.
ReplyDeleteJulia is just a bitch, its obvious by her smiles she gets a kick out of Johns obsession. Maybe she /is/ a match with Stephen, they're both dumb.
DeleteJulia's a stuck up bitch for sure. I'm trying to figure out why 3 girls are fighting over Asaf.
DeleteEspecially Tori!!! I like tori! Toris so pretty and Asaf just looks trashy like you can do better Tori.
DeleteTori seems like a cool girl for sure. I like her. :) If you just missed the preview apparently Asaf tells Tori on a date next time that he had sex with someone else. Ew.
DeleteI did, and what a surprise Giovanni goes from putting a ring on it to we need some space, i saw it coming.
DeleteDo you listen to the AYTO RHAP podcast? if not, you should, you'd love it. :)
DeleteIve never heard of it! I'll look it up! I follow ayto on snapchat-- no spoilers they just party
Deletehttp://robhasawebsite.com/mtv-reality-are-you-the-one-4-episode-1/ They're only podcasting every other episode so they should have the one for 2 and 3 up in a couple days. (They also podcast the Challenge so that's why they slowed down to every other week)
DeleteI dont watch the challenge, tried to get into it but i cant i just love the math behind are you the one. Listening to premier podcast right now.
DeleteSeriously - how are 3 girls into Asaf? He was a douche on SYTYCD and he's even worse in this setting. I just want him to find his match quickly and leave the house so I don't have to listen to him anymore.
DeleteJohn and Julia are the Devin and Kiki of this season. They're just as annoying. They are spending way too much time together
ReplyDeleteExcept Julia is Devin and John is Kiki
DeleteJohn and Julia are the Devin and Kiki of this season. They're just as annoying. They are spending way too much time together
ReplyDeleteMTV has to have their drama card though, no way they didnt know John was a loose cannon before they signed him up, probably brought him in for that exact reason.
DeleteI agree completely. Gotta have that drama.
DeleteThey really are! I hate that Devin is on The Challenge now. I hate that guy!
DeleteLast season after episode 3 they had over 14,000 combinations remaining. This group is doing really well.
ReplyDeleteI feel like after every season they get smarter about it especially since you figure many probably watched the previous seasons.
DeleteLast season they were so stupid though! They made no progress and then miraculously picked out the 10 perfect matches at the end.
DeleteThey claim they themselves did the math, i have a feeling MTV gave them some 'hints'
DeleteSame!
DeleteUgh...this Gio guy...I wouldn't hesitate to give you a baby...what a fuckin weird goofy thing to say to a person you barely know when you are practically homeless....that's like a warning sign from Moses or something
ReplyDeleteLol. I couldn't agree more. My DVR cut off the preview for the next episode, but I think someone in the comments above said Gio wants "space" from her next week. He's just all over the place! Definite red flag like you said.
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ReplyDeleteI'm usually able to replicate your numbers with my SAS program, but not this week. Are you sure you have the correct number of combinations remaining? 2,997 is the number I calculate if they had 3 lights. My calculations lead to 1,269 for 4 lights. Just want to make sure I'm not crazy!
ReplyDeleteYou're right, I read off the wrong number! Thank you!
DeleteGlad you agree! I was going a bit nuts trying to find the error in my code! Wikipedia also has 2,997.
DeleteAlex, can I ask what program you're using to do this?
DeleteI believe your chart is incorrect as well. I update the Wikipedia Page, and I believe all my numbers are correct. (My code is available online, linked from Wikipedia)
DeleteNote: Someone cloned my code and updated the Wiki entry incorrectly. It is accurate now!
My Perfect Matches
ReplyDelete1.Julia, Prosper
2.Nicole, Tyler
3.Tori, John or Cam
4.Victoria, Stephen
5.Emma, Morgan
6.Francesca, Cam or John
7.Camille, Asaf
8.Alyssa, Sam
9.Kaylen, Gio
10.Mikala, Cameron