10:06: This seems like a painful challenge.
10:07: I like that the results are shown on-screen now. Apparently Mikala has a fake ass.
10:08: Why do they have to lick both sides? Seems like just one side could be fine.
10:09: Morgan - Nicole (7.8%) and John - Julia (7.8%) are the first two pairings - why didn't they pick people from the first matchup ceremony? Sam - Alyssa (29.4%) and Francesa - Asaf (29.4%) are contending for third place.
10:14: It's Francesca and Asaf. As one commenter pointed out last week, Asaf was on So You Think You Can Dance? last season before coming to AYTO.
10:17: So authentic! Except that ass.
10:25: Tori seems pretty smart.
Truth Booth
10:28: "John and Julia have to go into the Truth Booth because they're both idiots." And they do!
10:33: Not a match! John is devastated. 189,152 combinations remain.
| Asaf | Cam | Cameron | Giovanni | John | Morgan | Prosper | Sam | Stephen | Tyler | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alyssa | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 28.8% | 7.8% | 7.6% |
| Camille | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 31.9% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.3% |
| Emma | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 31.9% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.3% |
| Francesca | 28.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.6% |
| Julia | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.5% | X | 31.9% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.2% |
| Kaylen | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 28.8% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.6% |
| Mikala | 7.8% | 7.8% | 28.8% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.6% |
| Nicole | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 28.8% | 7.6% |
| Tori | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 8.2% | X | 8.5% | 8.5% | 31.9% |
| Victoria | 7.8% | 28.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.6% |
10:35: Why is there always someone who just doesn't understand how human relationships work?
10:36: BRO! BRO!
10:37: WE'RE FROM THE SAME STATE!
Kaylen and Gio first to the boom boom room.
Matchup Ceremony
10:51: Morgan's one of those guys who "just goes for it" - thinks one thing and doesn't think about the next step at all. He looks like he's hurting after the whole group shit on him.
10:53: Giovanni and Kaylen coming out swinging and talking marriage. This is crazy!
- Cam - Julia
- Tyler - Victoria
- Stephen - Tori
- Cameron - Mikala (repeat from episode 1)
- Morgan - Alyssa
- Sam - Francesca
- Prosper - Emma
- Asaf - Camille
- Giovanni - Kaylen (repeat from episode 1)
- John - Nicole
Instant win possible: No, as they could only repeat 3 matchups from episode 1.
Maximum possible number of lights: 8
Most likely number of lights: 1
Blackout odds: Also, since they only repeated two couples from the first matchup ceremony, we know they won't win this week.
3 lights again - pretty decent progress. 16,570 possibilities remain.
| Asaf | Cam | Cameron | Giovanni | John | Morgan | Prosper | Sam | Stephen | Tyler | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alyssa | 7.7% | 7.5% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 8.5% | 21.0% | 8.7% | 21.7% | 7.8% | 7.8% |
| Camille | 21.0% | 7.5% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 23.7% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.6% |
| Emma | 7.5% | 7.4% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 23.0% | 7.5% | 23.0% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.4% |
| Francesca | 21.6% | 7.7% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 21.6% | 7.7% | 7.6% |
| Julia | 8.6% | 23.6% | 5.0% | 5.0% | X | 23.6% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 8.3% |
| Kaylen | 4.7% | 4.6% | 1.5% | 60.7% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.6% |
| Mikala | 4.7% | 4.6% | 60.7% | 1.5% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.6% |
| Nicole | 7.8% | 7.7% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 23.8% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 20.4% | 7.5% |
| Tori | 8.4% | 8.2% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 9.2% | 8.4% | X | 8.4% | 23.7% | 23.6% |
| Victoria | 7.9% | 21.0% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 21.0% |
Love this blog - any ideas on how to calculate the expected value at the end of each week since their prize decreases if there is a black out?
ReplyDeleteNot really! I don't think it's possible to figure out the odds of a blackout occurring during the season. For more, see my post Season 3 - What are the odds of a blackout?
DeleteAs usual they're not using the Truth Booth to their advantage (based on the probabilities). I do, however, think they made the best decision because like they pointed out, John was going to continue pursuing Julia even though she clearly wasn't into him (also, she really needed to speak up).
ReplyDeleteThough they've only known each other for a short time and are clearly rushing the marriage talk, I could see Kayla and Gio being a match. Hopefully those two or Cameron + Mikala will be next in the truth booth. I'm just not sure the cast is smart enough to figure out that's the best move.
Thank you for this! My family makes fun of me for working it out in charts. Also, I think Gio's matches name is Kaylen. :)
ReplyDeleteTwo girls are matched to the same guy and once they confirm it, the other girl gets kicked out. Does one guy not have a match then and will he get kicked out too?
ReplyDeleteThe double match only applied to season 2. And they had an extra girl so that no guy would have to leave, just the double matched girl who didn't get matched up first.
DeleteI do believe Kayla and Gio are a match but it just seems too simple so I want to believe otherwise. I wish they showed more of Mikala and Cam so that we could see if they really are similar or different and decide for ourselves if they're a match or not. Thus far it just looks like it's lust based.
ReplyDeleteI strongly believe Mikala and Cameron are a match. If you look at the season trailer they played at the end of episode 1, they show the John/Julia matchup on screen then crowd reaction afterward, but it was split - the crowd reaction (screaming/excited) had John and Julia in the audience so it was a different matchup. Cameron and Mikala are the only two not there, so I'm pretty certain they not only go into the TB but are also a match. I also think Kaylen/Gio and Sam/Alyssa are matches.
ReplyDeleteThat's some great sleuthing with the season trailer - well done! I could see Cameron and Mikala being a match, but as someone else mentioned above, it would be nice if they showed them interacting more.
DeleteWould you mind sharing how you update your percentages? Is it strictly a computer program? Thanks!
ReplyDeleteIt's just a computer program.
DeleteAlex, would you mind going into your combination math in more detail. I don't think simply taking the factorial (!) of the number of matches (n) would be correct.
ReplyDeleteIf you did that, then I think a Jane/John match would register similarly to a John/Jane match.
There are formulas for possible number of combinations as well as permutations from a set of objects, and neither matches up with your n! (But of course the formulas don't exactly apply, because going in you know that same sex combinations are illegal, which the formulas don't take into account).
It's actually a pretty textbook permutation problem. Imagine the girls are always lined up in the same order, positions 1 through 10. The act of coming up with all the possible pairings is the same as reordering those 10 men in those 10 positions.
DeleteHere's a proof: With 3 men (ABC) and 3 women (position 1, position 2, position 3), the combinations are: ABC, ACB, BAC, BCA, CAB, CBA, aka 3! Do it for 4, 5, etc. and you'll see the pattern.
Alex, thanks for the explanation. To be honest, I'm still not convinced on the math, as I can't find an applicable formula for n!
DeleteHowever, I'm sold on the brute force method you describe above, namely because you can use recursive results to get to your answer. That is, if 2 men and 2 women yield 4 combinations, then adding a third couple is simply multiplying the number of combinations for the third couple (3) by the number of combinations for first two couples (2).
Perhaps I just backed into my own mathematical proof. If every time you add a new couple, you add a nth number of new combinations, then you would be left with a formula like n * (n-1) * (n-2) * ... * (n-x+1) which just gives you n!
Also, I think you would be double counting identical picks in different orders. That is if Jane/John & Tori/Tom pick each other in that order in Week 1, it is identical to Tori/Tom & Jane/John picking each other in Week 2.
ReplyDelete