10:11: Forget Taco Tuesday - it's Fight Night!
10:16: Jasmine, hanging out with Nutsa, says Tevin shares the blame... Kenya forgives Tevin! Interesting!
10:18: It's Zak and Morgan getting together.
10:19: Then it's Moe, Samantha, and Cali hanging out. Totally drama free. They feel like observers in the house rather than participants!
10:20: Ohhhh Moe is the funnest guy in the house!
10:21: Daniel hits the Fate Button and gets Kenya and Morgan.
10:24: Asia hits the Fate Button and... it's Brett and Kwasi.
10:30: Lots of best friends drama as Bria is mad at Morgan hooking up with Zak, and with Tevin being scared about losing his best friend Brett to Kenya.
Truth Booth #4
10:31: It's Brett and Kenya (6.3%) going to the Truth Booth and everyone is talking about the negative consequences if they're a match. Weird vibe.
10:36: Never seen a couple so happy about being no match before. They bring it down to 35,322 remaining combinations.
| Andrew | Brett | Cam | Daniel | Kwasi | Lewis | Moe | Shamoy | Tevin | Tomas | Zak | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | X | 14.8% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 11.5% | 13.6% | 11.5% | X | 7.5% | 11.3% | 11.2% |
| Bria | 10.3% | 9.7% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 14.6% | X | 6.5% | 12.3% | 10.3% |
| Cali | 9.4% | 21.1% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 9.0% | X | 5.9% | 11.9% | 9.2% |
| Jasmine | 10.2% | 9.8% | 7.0% | 9.5% | 12.1% | 14.6% | 10.5% | X | 6.5% | 10.0% | 9.7% |
| Kayla | 7.2% | 6.7% | 39.9% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.1% | X | 3.8% | 7.3% | 7.1% |
| Kenya | 7.3% | X | 4.2% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.3% | X | 44.7% | 7.6% | 7.3% |
| Lauren | 21.9% | 9.0% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 11.9% | 9.1% | 9.0% | X | 5.8% | 9.3% | 9.0% |
| Maria | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | Match | X | X | X |
| Morgan | 13.7% | 9.8% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 10.2% | X | 6.7% | 10.5% | 12.2% |
| Nutsa | 9.7% | 9.3% | 6.7% | 19.2% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 11.1% | X | 6.1% | 9.6% | 9.4% |
| Samantha | 10.2% | 9.8% | 7.1% | 11.0% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 9.7% | X | 6.5% | 10.2% | 14.7% |
10:39: Bria isn't happy with Morgan. She's the baddest bitch in the house.
10:42: Asia trying to rally the house around strategy. Our guest blogger Nicole chimes in: "Asia likes being clean. Clearly she and Moe are a match."
Matchup Ceremony #4
10:44: Kayla picks Brett and Cam is pissed! He put all his eggs in one basket. But then Cam gets to be the second pick.
- Kayla - Brett
- Asia - Cam
- Samantha - Moe
- Morgan - Zak (repeat from ceremony 3)
- Nutsa - Andrew
- Lauren - Daniel
- Cali - Tomas (repeat from ceremony 1)
- Jasmine - Tevin
- Kenya - Lewis
- Bria - Kwasi
Instant win possible: No (less than 3 couples repeated from ceremony 1)
Maximum number of lights: 9
Most likely number of lights: 1 (blackout)
10:56: The most likely outcome is a blackout. And they cut to commercial...
11:00: It's two beams. And Terrence J starts talking trash. Kinda rude. He doesn't seem happy with the house. 12,860 possibilities remain.
| Andrew | Brett | Cam | Daniel | Kwasi | Lewis | Moe | Shamoy | Tevin | Tomas | Zak | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | X | 15.2% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 11.5% | 13.5% | 11.3% | X | 7.1% | 11.2% | 10.7% |
| Bria | 10.4% | 9.2% | 6.8% | 9.1% | 11.4% | 9.8% | 14.3% | X | 6.2% | 12.7% | 10.1% |
| Cali | 9.5% | 20.9% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 8.9% | X | 6.0% | 12.0% | 9.5% |
| Jasmine | 10.4% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 11.8% | 14.1% | 10.4% | X | 7.2% | 10.1% | 10.1% |
| Kayla | 7.1% | 7.5% | 40.1% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | X | 3.8% | 7.1% | 7.0% |
| Kenya | 7.2% | X | 4.0% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 7.2% | X | 44.9% | 7.3% | 7.1% |
| Lauren | 21.7% | 8.7% | 6.0% | 9.7% | 12.4% | 8.9% | 8.6% | X | 5.7% | 9.2% | 9.0% |
| Maria | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | Match | X | X | X |
| Morgan | 13.3% | 9.8% | 6.9% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 10.3% | X | 6.7% | 10.8% | 12.4% |
| Nutsa | 10.6% | 9.5% | 6.5% | 19.2% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 10.8% | X | 6.0% | 9.7% | 9.4% |
| Samantha | 10.0% | 9.6% | 6.8% | 11.0% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 11.2% | X | 6.4% | 9.9% | 14.6% |
kenya is a hypocrite
ReplyDeleteFeeling like this is the least strategic season yet. Four ceremonies and not that far.
ReplyDeleteThey're further ahead than last season.
DeleteI kind of have a theory that every "fate" session has at least one perfect match. There are 4 total possibilities each time, and I would bet money that every time at least one of those combos is a perfect match. I cant imagine the producers introducing a stupid button and getting rid of the competition's just to dish out more no match combinations.
ReplyDeleteI totally agree. It makes no sense. I think the perfect matches from the 3 dates they got no matches are Tomas-Cali, Asia-Cam, Kwasi-Morgan. Tomas and Cali really hit it off, I think Asia and Cam would get along if not for the republican thing, and Morgan is way more superficial than she thinks.
Deletetomas/cali and cam/asia both sat together this week, can't be both of them
DeleteOh, good point, I didn't pay too close attention to this week's picks, since they seemed so random. Tomas/Cali seem more likely to me.
DeleteAlex, could you share the formula you use to generate the percentages? I'm curious to see how the number of beams affects the probabilities of the different pairings.
ReplyDeleteI'd like to know how Alex works this out too. I've created my own method by creating all the possible combinations and testing each combination week by week, eliminating the invalid ones and getting exactly the same result as Alex
DeleteI don't use a formula. I have a computer loop through all of the possibilities remaining and eliminate the ones that don't fit the rules set in prior truth booths and matchup ceremonies.
DeleteMorgan’s reaction when Bria was bitching her out was priceless. Loved it. Lol.
ReplyDeleteStill hate the fate button.
There must be a whole lot of stuff going on that we don’t see. Of all the combinations of the 4 who went on the date, Brett and Kenya would have been my last choice.
ReplyDeleteAlex, just one comment on your incorrect use of the term "blackout odds". Mathematically the term odds is NOT a synonym for probability. Both are ratios representing the likelihood of an outcome but have distinctly different mathematical definitions.
ReplyDeleteA probability is the ratio of favorable outcomes to *total* outcomes. So the *probability* of rolling a certain number on a die is 1 in 6 (usually written 1/6).
But *odds* are written as the ratio of favorable outcomes to *unfavorable* outcomes. The *odds* of rolling a certain number on a die would be 1 to 5 in favor (also written 1:5). When you say *odds* and then follow it with a *probability* value, it's confusing. The following article should help: What is the difference between odds and probability? Or is odds a slang term for probability?
So the correct term should be Blackout probability.
Also, how is this season's cast doing compared to prior seasons? Will you bring back the progress graph?
Thanks for the tip. I've updated it for this season going forward. Will bring back the progress graph next week.
Delete