10:06: Melanie's boob just hanging out.
10:07: OK, more boobs from Britni.
10:09: "Cutting tension with scissors" isn't exactly the quote.
10:09: This is one of the funniest looking challenges yet.
10:15: Cheyenne / Zak (12.5%) and Britni / Chuck (5.1%) aren't great choices for the competition. Smart of Connor to go for Chelsey but it didn't make it.
10:15: WTF is a manta ray?
10:30: Hannah is awfully confident about Chuck leaving the house even though there's a 95% chance he sticks around.
10:40: No match between Chuck and Britni! 13,410 combinations remain. This is one of the worst truth booth picks in the history of this show, by the way.
| Alec | Austin | Chuck | Connor | Devin | Hunter | Mike | Nelson | Tyler | Zak | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda | 6.7% | 19.3% | 11.5% | 6.6% | 14.1% | 5.8% | X | 11.8% | 11.8% | 12.5% |
| Britni | 1.6% | 6.2% | X | 2.0% | 6.9% | 65.5% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.7% | X |
| Chelsey | X | 6.5% | 6.2% | 53.8% | 7.4% | 2.0% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 4.3% |
| Cheyenne | 6.6% | 12.2% | 11.5% | 6.6% | 14.0% | 5.8% | 12.9% | X | 17.8% | 12.5% |
| Hannah | 7.3% | 13.3% | X | 7.2% | 15.0% | 6.7% | 13.6% | 12.6% | 12.6% | 11.8% |
| Kayla | 4.0% | 11.1% | 10.5% | X | 12.8% | 2.9% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 28.9% |
| Kiki | 8.8% | X | 30.9% | 8.7% | X | X | 18.3% | 16.7% | 16.7% | X |
| Melanie | 6.8% | 12.5% | 11.9% | 6.7% | X | 5.8% | 13.2% | 18.3% | 12.0% | 12.8% |
| Rashida | 6.4% | 12.0% | 11.2% | 6.4% | 22.1% | 5.5% | 12.5% | 11.4% | X | 12.3% |
| Stacey | 51.8% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 2.0% | 7.7% | X | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 4.9% |
10:44: This is the earliest they've done the matchup ceremony in a while, so something is up.
10:46: Nelson really mad that Cheyenne was taken from him.
10:48: Devin says fuck the math!
10:50: Rashida should be mad here, Devin is her highest-probability match.
10:56: Tyler wants an in with Rashida.
10:58: Connor wants nothing to do with Kayla.
Matchup Ceremony
- Alec - Amanda
- Tyler - Melanie
- Zak - Cheyenne
- Chuck - Kiki (repeat from episode 3)
- Devin - Hannah
- Mike - Kayla (repeat from episode 3)
- Connor - Chelsey (repeat from episodes 1, 3)
- Nelson - Britni
- Hunter - Rashida
- Austin - Stacey
The chances of a blackout with this specific combination is 18% (2,406 of 13,410). This combination was previously ruled out as a game-winning combination.
2 right means 3,702 combinations remain.
| Alec | Austin | Chuck | Connor | Devin | Hunter | Mike | Nelson | Tyler | Zak | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda | 8.0% | 16.3% | 10.0% | 4.7% | 14.5% | 7.4% | X | 13.1% | 13.0% | 13.0% |
| Britni | 2.5% | 7.6% | X | 1.5% | 8.1% | 59.3% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.6% | X |
| Chelsey | X | 4.3% | 2.1% | 70.6% | 5.0% | 1.5% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 2.2% |
| Cheyenne | 8.0% | 13.2% | 10.3% | 4.8% | 14.7% | 7.1% | 13.2% | X | 14.0% | 14.8% |
| Hannah | 8.2% | 13.3% | X | 4.6% | 17.7% | 7.4% | 13.2% | 13.1% | 13.0% | 9.5% |
| Kayla | 5.0% | 10.5% | 9.3% | X | 12.3% | 3.8% | 11.7% | 10.5% | 10.6% | 26.3% |
| Kiki | 8.9% | X | 41.2% | 3.0% | X | X | 15.6% | 15.4% | 15.9% | X |
| Melanie | 7.8% | 13.2% | 10.5% | 4.8% | X | 6.9% | 13.3% | 15.5% | 14.1% | 13.9% |
| Rashida | 7.9% | 13.1% | 9.9% | 5.0% | 18.1% | 6.6% | 12.6% | 12.9% | X | 13.9% |
| Stacey | 43.8% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 1.0% | 9.5% | X | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 6.4% |
This is the worst performance of any season so far. They're almost as far away from succeeding as season 2, which was much harder with the 11th girl. They really don't know what's going on.
Chuck - Kiki also a repeat from episode 3! Also love your blog!
ReplyDeleteSo does this mean Chelsey and Connor are the most likely to be a perfect match?
ReplyDeleteYes. And their probability only seems to be increasing over time. I'm guessing they're a perfect match.
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