10:04: Oh, she's not wearing a bra.
10:06: OK, Devin has a pretty good point. They all jumped on him for hooking up with a confirmed no match, and now all the couples have to deal with being confirmed non-matches.
10:08: Why wouldn't the smartest guy just stand next to a pole with a tire and let the other guys do the running?
10:09: Wait... if there are only 60 tires, a guy can't stack up his own name 6 times anyway. So the guys who are carrying over their own tires to the poles are doing it wrong.
10:16: WHO IS THIS NERD?
Some relatively weak couples here. Chuck-Amanda (13.3%) is the best choice, with Zak-Kiki (9.6%), and Mike-Britni (6.8%) behind.
10:25: Helicoptering. Bold move.
10:27: Wow, 6 figures at age 22? I guess he's a pretty credible nerd.
10:28: Nerds everywhere!!
10:29: Did Zak just raise the price of prescription drugs 5,000%?
Truth Booth
No match between Zak and Kiki! 57,160 combinations remaining.
| Alec | Austin | Chuck | Connor | Devin | Hunter | Mike | Nelson | Tyler | Zak | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda | 7.5% | 13.9% | 12.9% | 7.5% | 16.1% | 8.2% | X | 12.9% | 12.9% | 8.2% |
| Britni | 2.2% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 2.5% | 8.3% | 53.7% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | X |
| Chelsey | X | 8.0% | 7.6% | 46.3% | 9.4% | 3.1% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 2.7% |
| Cheyenne | 7.5% | 13.9% | 12.9% | 7.5% | 16.1% | 8.2% | 12.9% | X | 12.9% | 8.2% |
| Hannah | 7.5% | 13.9% | X | 7.5% | 16.1% | 8.2% | 12.9% | 12.9% | 12.9% | 8.2% |
| Kayla | 2.5% | 7.2% | 6.6% | X | 8.4% | 2.2% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 53.2% |
| Kiki | 10.6% | X | 19.7% | 10.6% | X | X | 19.7% | 19.7% | 19.7% | X |
| Melanie | 7.8% | 14.2% | 13.3% | 7.8% | X | 8.4% | 13.3% | 13.3% | 13.3% | 8.4% |
| Rashida | 7.5% | 13.9% | 12.9% | 7.5% | 16.1% | 8.2% | 12.9% | 12.9% | X | 8.2% |
| Stacey | 46.8% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 2.7% | 9.3% | X | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 3.1% |
It's not always a great strategy to keep going down the line, sending the same person into the truth booth repeatedly. You only have a limited number of guesses, so trying to solve one person can be a rabbit hole. In general, the highest probability guess is usually the best one.
10:36: It's hard enough for me to tell the difference between these people at the start of a season, but adding glasses makes it twice as hard.
10:37: Stage 5 clinger.
10:39: These Sour Patch Kid commercials are awful. (But effective?)
10:42: The team can guarantee no blackout by putting forth the 4 people who were matched up in the first episode but not in the second. It's a pretty low-risk strategy.
10:45: Ryan is getting really unusually involved here! SHOTS FIRED
10:52: Devin unleashing the truth!
Matchup Ceremony
- Chelsey - Connor (repeat from Episode 1)
- Kiki - Chuck
- Amanda - Austin
- Rashida - Devin
- Cheyenne - Tyler
- Melanie - Nelson
- Hannah - Zak
- Kayla - Mike
- Stacey - Alec (repeat from episode 1)
- Britni - Hunter (repeat from episode 1)
Guaranteed not to be a blackout since they repeated 3 of the 4 pairs from episode 1 - they know at least one of these is still a match. Also guaranteed not to be a winning combination. Getting 1 or 2 correct here is probably much more useful than getting 3, 4, 5, or 6 right.
3 correct means 14,129 combinations remain.
| Alec | Austin | Chuck | Connor | Devin | Hunter | Mike | Nelson | Tyler | Zak | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda | 6.5% | 20.0% | 10.9% | 6.5% | 14.0% | 6.4% | X | 11.7% | 11.7% | 12.4% |
| Britni | 1.5% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 1.9% | 6.6% | 62.2% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.4% | X |
| Chelsey | X | 6.4% | 5.9% | 54.9% | 7.2% | 2.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 4.1% |
| Cheyenne | 6.4% | 12.2% | 10.9% | 6.4% | 14.0% | 6.3% | 12.9% | X | 18.3% | 12.5% |
| Hannah | 7.1% | 13.3% | X | 7.1% | 15.0% | 7.2% | 13.6% | 12.5% | 12.5% | 11.7% |
| Kayla | 3.8% | 11.1% | 10.0% | X | 12.8% | 3.2% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 10.4% | 29.7% |
| Kiki | 8.7% | X | 29.3% | 8.7% | X | X | 19.0% | 17.2% | 17.2% | X |
| Melanie | 6.6% | 12.5% | 11.3% | 6.6% | X | 6.4% | 13.2% | 18.8% | 11.9% | 12.8% |
| Rashida | 6.2% | 12.0% | 10.6% | 6.2% | 22.9% | 6.1% | 12.4% | 11.3% | X | 12.3% |
| Stacey | 53.3% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 1.9% | 7.5% | X | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 4.6% |
Wouldn't the 3 couples that were repeated from the 1st episode be a match since there were 3 lights?
ReplyDeleteBtw just found this blog and I love it!
I think the answer to that is not necessarily, since all the other couples also have a potential to be a match. The only way to rule out potential matches is the Truth Booth and blackouts. I wish it were that easy to figure out though!
DeleteOf the 3 couples that were repeated from the first episode, 1 or 2 are a perfect match, and the others are not. This is because the first episode had 2 perfect matches, and the second episode repeated 6 couples from the first episode with a blackout. That means of the 4 couples that weren't repeated in the second episode, exactly 2 are perfect matches.
DeleteIt's a great idea. Very interesting!
ReplyDeleteIt's a great idea. Very interesting!
ReplyDeleteI cringe when they don't play smartly at the challenges in order to have good options for the Truth Booth. Hopefully next week they'll send one of the highest probability matches in so they have more information going forward.
ReplyDeleteI don't have the algorithm to check the math on this one, Alex, but would it have made more sense to repeat all 4 of the couples remaining from the first matching ceremony this time? I realize they only needed to do 3 to guarantee avoiding a blackout, but it seems way easier to deduce information on the other couples by being confident how many of the new couples formed are matches.
ReplyDeleteIn other words, right now, it's not clear whether they got 1 or 2 repeat couples right. If they had done all four, they'd know for sure there's just 1 new couple formed that's right.
Certainly I think the best strategy following episode 2 would have been to send these couples to the Truth Booth until you know the two perfect matches. Guaranteeing two perfect matches out of two or three trips to the Truth Booth is as good of a value as you can get there.
DeleteRepeating the same 4 couples makes a lot of sense to me. You'd be able to know that you had two matches out of the four still, and then the remaining number of lights would indicate how many of the six are perfect matches.
The only reason why I wouldn't completely back this plan is that the problem they're trying to solve is not "make progress on the problem every week," it's "solve the problem in 10 weeks or fewer." This is the issue I have with them trying to get Kiki out of the house using repeated Truth Booths - the worst case in that scenario is that you end up using 8 of your 10 Truth Booths on Kiki. Success on a wild-ass guess is better than success on a safe guess - and with the limited time to win, that means you might need to hit on some wild-ass guesses (see season 1, episode 2). Although that might be advocating for 0 repeat couples rather than 1, 2, or 3.
This is so cool!! Thanks for posting :)
ReplyDelete