Wednesday, February 8, 2023

Season 9, Episode 5 Probabilities

Truth Booth #4

Julia Ruth goes in to the Truth Booth with Brendan after some tension with Nathan, and it's the first perfect match of the season!

AqelBrendanClayEduardoHamudiLeoMikeyNathanOllieSamuelWill
Anissa47.3%X5.3%7.4%X6.4%7.7%9.6%X7.1%9.2%
Brooke4.4%X5.5%7.2%8.3%X7.5%9.1%42.4%6.8%9.0%
CC4.5%X38.7%7.0%8.0%6.0%7.2%8.7%4.7%6.6%8.6%
CourtneyXX7.0%8.8%10.2%13.1%9.1%10.4%6.4%8.1%27.0%
Danielle6.7%X7.8%14.2%23.5%8.8%X11.4%7.1%9.0%11.5%
Dew6.2%XX8.6%10.4%7.7%9.2%27.2%6.7%13.3%10.7%
Jordanne7.5%X8.6%23.5%11.9%8.8%10.6%11.8%7.9%9.3%X
Julia RuthXMatchXXXXXXXXX
Mijntje7.2%X8.3%10.1%16.0%9.0%20.3%X7.6%9.5%12.0%
Roz6.9%X7.9%X11.7%8.8%15.0%11.7%7.3%18.6%12.0%
Taylor9.4%X10.8%13.2%X31.4%13.4%X9.8%11.9%X

That narrows it down to 20,228 possibilities.

Matchup Ceremony #4
  • Courtney - Will (repeat from ceremony 3)
  • Jordanne - Eduardo (repeat from ceremony 3)
  • Mijntje - Hamudi (repeat from ceremony 2)
  • Anissa - Aqel (repeat from ceremonies 2 and 3)
  • CC - Mikey
  • Dew - Ollie
  • Danielle - Leo
  • Brooke - Clay
  • Taylor - Samuel
  • Roz - Nathan

Blackout probability: 16.5% (3,340 of 20,228)
Instant win possible: Yes
Most likely number of lights: 2

It's 2 beams, which leaves only 6,812 combinations left.

AqelBrendanClayEduardoHamudiLeoMikeyNathanOllieSamuelWill
Anissa43.8%X5.4%7.7%X6.9%7.9%11.4%X7.8%9.1%
Brooke4.4%X0.1%7.7%8.6%X6.6%9.1%46.5%6.8%10.2%
CC4.4%X43.0%7.6%8.6%5.4%1.7%9.1%4.2%6.7%9.3%
CourtneyXX7.4%10.8%11.2%13.6%10.3%11.6%6.8%8.6%19.6%
Danielle7.0%X6.9%15.2%27.0%1.8%X12.1%6.6%9.5%13.6%
Dew6.4%XX9.4%11.4%7.7%8.5%28.4%1.8%14.8%11.6%
Jordanne7.9%X9.4%15.0%13.2%10.1%11.9%13.5%8.6%10.5%X
Julia RuthXMatchXXXXXXXXX
Mijntje8.8%X8.9%11.6%6.4%9.8%22.3%X8.1%11.1%13.0%
Roz7.0%X8.0%X13.5%9.7%16.6%4.8%7.4%19.3%13.6%
Taylor10.3%X10.9%15.0%X34.9%14.1%X9.9%4.9%X

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