Tuesday, February 25, 2014

Season 1, Episode 6 Probabilities - Live Blog

11:02pm: And we're live! 24 possible combinations remain. Will Joey speak? I think it's been three episodes since we've heard a word from him. (He even was in the confessional without talking!)

11:05pm: Brittany and Adam are fighting. They were eliminated as a couple last week when Dre and Ashleigh failed the truth booth.

11:08pm: Both Shanley (Episode 1 truth booth) and Simone (Episode 4 matchup ceremony) are not Chris T's perfect matches. But there's a 100% chance that Chris T and Shanley are still going at it.

11:09pm: JOEY SPEAKING!!!!

11:12pm: Some pretty good fits in this challenge: Paige-Chris T, Simone-Scali, Amber-Ethan, Brittany-Joey, and Jacy-John.

11:18pm: What is fish juice? This is crazy.

11:20pm: This is Amber's challenge. Fish juice and kimchi shave ice seem to be very Asian choices.

11:21pm: So that's why they got Joey on camera. He won the challenge!

11:23pm: Chris T and Paige will eliminate the most remaining possibilities (11 or 13) if sent to the truth booth. Runners-up: Joey and Brittany (10 or 14). Dre and Shanley would be a huge boon if they are a match (22 - down to 2, only 2 eliminated otherwise). Ethan and Amber are 5 and 19.

11:30pm: Joey is my favorite. Admitting Britt is crazy but thinking they can work through it!

11:37pm: Intervention... but I'm OK with Kayla playing both sides. Stay open to both possibilities.

11:38pm: Cockblock.

11:39pm: Never mind. Can't believe they're showing an under-blanket BJ.

11:40pm: Pretty sure that Thomas Edison was a pretty popular inventor and everyone wanted to try his stuff out. Not exactly the guy you want to use for your NOBODY BELIEVES IN US! claim.

11:46pm: This group is way too sad for sombreros.

11:49pm: They're cutting pretty close on time here. Are we going to see a matchup ceremony?

11:53pm: So apparently Shanley values boning Chris at more than a shot at a $50,000 annuity.

11:55pm: Pretty clear we aren't getting a matchup ceremony tonight... this actually could mean they end up winning the $1 million prize, if the editors are trying to stretch out one of their ten matchup ceremonies past more than an episode.

Truth Booth

It's Chris T and Paige! Great strategy!

PERFECT MATCH!


AdamChris SChris TDillanDreEthanJoeyJohnRyanWes
AmberXXXXX63.6%18.2%XX18.2%
Ashleigh36.4%36.4%XXXXX18.2%9.1%X
BrittanyXXXX18.2%9.1%54.5%X9.1%9.1%
ColeysiaXXXMatchXXXXXX
JacyX9.1%XX9.1%XX63.6%18.2%X
JessicaX18.2%XX18.2%X9.1%9.1%27.3%18.2%
KaylaXXXXX9.1%18.2%X27.3%45.5%
PaigeXXMatchXXXXXXX
Shanley63.6%9.1%XXX9.1%X9.1%9.1%X
SimoneX27.3%XX54.5%9.1%XXX9.1%


11:59pm: I WANT MY MONEY!

Stay tuned for another live blog next week!

The 11 remaining possibilities:


  1. Amber - Ethan, Ashleigh - Adam, Brittany - Joey, Jacy - John, Jessica - Chris S, Kayla - Wesley, Shanley - Ryan, Simone - Dre
  2. Amber - Ethan, Ashleigh - Adam, Brittany - Joey, Jacy - John, Jessica - Ryan, Kayla - Wesley, Shanley - Chris S, Simone - Dre
  3. Amber - Ethan, Ashleigh - Adam, Brittany - Joey, Jacy - Ryan, Jessica - Dre, Kayla - Wesley, Shanley - John, Simone - Chris S
  4. Amber - Ethan, Ashleigh - Chris S, Brittany - Ryan, Jacy - John, Jessica - Dre, Kayla - Joey, Shanley - Adam, Simone - Wesley
  5. Amber - Ethan, Ashleigh - Chris S, Brittany - Wesley, Jacy - John, Jessica - Ryan, Kayla - Joey, Shanley - Adam, Simone - Dre
  6. Amber - Ethan, Ashleigh - John, Brittany - Joey, Jacy - Chris S, Jessica - Ryan, Kayla - Wesley, Shanley - Adam, Simone - Dre
  7. Amber - Ethan, Ashleigh - John, Brittany - Joey, Jacy - Ryan, Jessica - Chris S, Kayla - Wesley, Shanley - Adam, Simone - Dre
  8. Amber - Joey, Ashleigh - Adam, Brittany - Dre, Jacy - John, Jessica - Wesley, Kayla - Ryan, Shanley - Ethan, Simone - Chris S
  9. Amber - Joey, Ashleigh - Chris S, Brittany - Dre, Jacy - John, Jessica - Wesley, Kayla - Ryan, Shanley - Adam, Simone - Ethan
  10. Amber - Wesley, Ashleigh - Chris S, Brittany - Ethan, Jacy - John, Jessica - Joey, Kayla - Ryan, Shanley - Adam, Simone - Dre
  11. Amber - Wesley, Ashleigh - Ryan, Brittany - Joey, Jacy - Dre, Jessica - John, Kayla - Ethan, Shanley - Adam, Simone - Chris S

3 comments:

  1. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  2. I'd be very surprised if they can win in less than 10 matchups but we'll see. Don't forget, recent seasons of Real World and The Challenge have lasted 12 episodes and they often do a to-be-continued episode on The Challenge.

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  3. Alex,
    When production came up with the format for this show, how much of a winning chance do you think they wanted the cast to have?

    Would they rather the cast just barely win the prize on the last chance, or come close but fall short in the end?

    I think it's still going to take a few more episodes before we have clarity on whether the group is on pace to reach the finish line or not.

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