Saturday, February 15, 2014

Season 1, Episode 2 Probabilities

We exited Episode 1 with 608,153 combinations remaining.

Truth Booth

Ethan and Jessica weren't a match, which narrowed the number of possible combinations to 556,241.

AdamChris SChris TDillanDreEthanJoeyJohnRyanWesley
Amber8.9%8.9%9.5%8.9%8.9%9.5%8.9%8.9%19.0%8.9%
Ashleigh8.9%19.0%9.5%8.9%8.9%9.5%8.9%8.9%8.9%8.9%
Brittany19.0%8.9%9.5%8.9%8.9%9.5%8.9%8.9%8.9%8.9%
Coleysia8.9%8.9%9.5%19.0%8.9%9.5%8.9%8.9%8.9%8.9%
Jacy8.9%8.9%9.5%8.9%19.0%9.5%8.9%8.9%8.9%8.9%
Jessica9.5%9.5%24.0%9.5%9.5%X9.5%9.5%9.5%9.5%
Kayla8.9%8.9%9.5%8.9%8.9%9.5%8.9%8.9%8.9%19.0%
Paige8.9%8.9%9.5%8.9%8.9%9.5%19.0%8.9%8.9%8.9%
Shanley9.5%9.5%X9.5%9.5%24.0%9.5%9.5%9.5%9.5%
Simone8.9%8.9%9.5%8.9%8.9%9.5%8.9%19.0%8.9%8.9%

By selecting Ethan and Jessica, who paired with Shanley and Chris T (last week's truth boothers) respectively in the previous matchup ceremony, the probabilities of those two pairs swapping partners increased significantly.

Matchup Ceremony

None of the women reciprocated the men's choices from the first episode:
  • Jacy - John
  • Jessica - Dillan
  • Paige - Chris T
  • Simone - Chris S
  • Shanley - Adam
  • Coleysia - Wes
  • Amber - Ethan
  • Brittany - Joey
  • Kayla - Ryan
  • Ashleigh - Dre
The pairings came out with 4 of 10 correct, which not only blessed the group with confidence, but narrows our possibilities down to 5,773 possible combinations. The maximum possible correct here was 7, as 2 of the pairings from last week needed to be duplicated and weren't.

Out of those possible combinations, the following probabilities emerged (red = eliminated, yellow = twice as likely as randomly guessing, green = most likely pairing):

AdamChris SChris TDillanDreEthanJoeyJohnRyanWesley
Amber5.2%5.0%5.1%4.6%5.0%40.9%5.2%5.0%19.0%5.1%
Ashleigh4.9%20.0%5.2%5.0%39.1%5.2%5.0%5.4%5.1%5.0%
Brittany18.9%5.0%5.4%5.2%5.0%5.4%39.9%5.0%5.1%5.2%
Coleysia5.1%5.1%5.5%19.0%5.1%5.5%5.1%5.1%5.2%39.3%
Jacy4.9%5.4%5.2%5.0%20.0%5.2%5.0%39.1%5.1%5.0%
Jessica4.9%5.2%22.2%40.9%5.2%X5.4%5.2%5.5%5.3%
Kayla5.1%5.0%5.1%5.1%5.0%5.3%5.2%5.0%39.3%19.8%
Paige4.9%4.9%41.2%5.2%4.9%4.9%18.9%4.9%5.1%5.1%
Shanley41.2%5.2%X5.1%5.2%22.2%5.4%5.2%5.5%5.1%
Simone4.9%39.1%5.2%5.0%5.4%5.2%5.0%20.0%5.1%5.0%

Strategy will be discussed separately.

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