The contestants narrowed it down to
5,773 possible combinations remaining after
Episode 2. Do they know that they've eliminated 99.8% of the possible combinations?
Truth Booth
John and Simone, who had about a 20% chance of being a match by virtue of their
Episode 1 pairing, were not in fact a match. This cuts the number of possible combinations down to
4,617. That frees up Jacy to move in on John - convenient, since they're the most likely couple on the board to be a perfect match. The remaining odds (red = eliminated, yellow = twice as likely as randomly guessing, green = most likely pairing):
| Adam | Chris S | Chris T | Dillan | Dre | Ethan | Joey | John | Ryan | Wesley |
|---|
| Amber | 5.3% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 38.2% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 21.5% | 5.1% |
|---|
| Ashleigh | 4.9% | 20.9% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 37.1% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 5.0% |
|---|
| Brittany | 21.4% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 37.6% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 5.0% |
|---|
| Coleysia | 5.1% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 21.5% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 37.0% |
|---|
| Jacy | 3.9% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 20.9% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 48.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% |
|---|
| Jessica | 4.8% | 4.0% | 25.0% | 38.2% | 5.2% | X | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.3% |
|---|
| Kayla | 5.1% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 37.0% | 22.3% |
|---|
| Paige | 5.0% | 3.9% | 38.4% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 21.4% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% |
|---|
| Shanley | 38.4% | 4.0% | X | 5.1% | 5.1% | 25.0% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.0% |
|---|
| Simone | 6.1% | 48.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.3% | X | 6.4% | 6.3% |
|---|
Matchup Ceremony
The men got to go first again, and a few of them are feeling good about what happened in the previous episode.
- Dillan - Coleysia (repeat from episode 1)
- John - Jessica
- Ryan - Kayla (repeat from episode 2)
- Ethan - Amber (repeat from episode 2)
- Dre - Ashleigh (repeat from episode 2)
- Chris T - Simone
- Adam - Brittany (repeat from episode 1)
- Chris S - Paige
- Joey - Shanley
- Wesley - Jacy
Unfortunately, they were by and large incorrect, as only 2 of 10 pairings were correct. The only outcome that would have eliminated fewer possible combinations was 1 of 10. 0 of 10 here would have provided significant additional information on what had happened in previous episodes. Instead, the group is left with
1,324 possible combinations, and these possibilities:
| Adam | Chris S | Chris T | Dillan | Dre | Ethan | Joey | John | Ryan | Wesley |
|---|
| Amber | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 44.0% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 14.3% | 7.0% |
|---|
| Ashleigh | 3.7% | 19.6% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 41.1% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 5.5% |
|---|
| Brittany | 25.3% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 33.4% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 5.6% |
|---|
| Coleysia | 5.8% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 25.7% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 35.2% |
|---|
| Jacy | 3.9% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 19.4% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 51.4% | 4.3% | 1.9% |
|---|
| Jessica | 4.6% | 4.2% | 26.7% | 32.1% | 6.0% | X | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.0% |
|---|
| Kayla | 4.6% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 41.4% | 20.5% |
|---|
| Paige | 4.9% | 3.5% | 37.6% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 24.8% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.9% |
|---|
| Shanley | 36.0% | 4.3% | X | 6.3% | 6.2% | 23.6% | 2.9% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.3% |
|---|
| Simone | 6.3% | 47.8% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.1% | X | 6.7% | 6.0% |
|---|
Strategy will be discussed in a future post.
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