Season 1, Episode 3 Probabilities - with blog assistance

MTV is revealing perfect matches for Are You The One? on their blog. This post will keep track of known combinations given the information on the blog.

See the original Episode 3 post if you don't want to be spoiled by the MTV blog.

The contestants narrowed it down to 5,773 possible combinations remaining after Episode 2. Do they know that they've eliminated 99.8% of the possible combinations?

Blog Reveal

Amber and Ethan are a match, after pairing up in episode 2. This means we viewers have 2,364 combinations remaining (red = eliminated, yellow = twice as likely as randomly guessing, green = most likely pairing):

	Adam	Chris S	Chris T	Dillan	Dre	Ethan	Joey	John	Ryan	Wesley
Amber	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X
Ashleigh	4.8%	25.3%	6.5%	6.5%	30.9%	X	6.0%	6.3%	7.4%	6.3%
Brittany	23.5%	6.3%	6.5%	6.3%	6.3%	X	31.7%	6.3%	7.1%	5.9%
Coleysia	5.5%	5.9%	6.5%	24.8%	5.9%	X	6.5%	5.9%	7.2%	31.6%
Jacy	4.8%	6.3%	6.5%	6.5%	25.3%	X	6.0%	30.9%	7.4%	6.3%
Jessica	4.8%	6.0%	27.5%	29.6%	6.0%	X	6.0%	6.0%	8.3%	5.8%
Kayla	4.7%	5.2%	5.8%	5.8%	5.2%	X	6.0%	5.2%	37.8%	24.4%
Paige	4.7%	6.0%	34.2%	5.9%	6.0%	X	23.9%	6.0%	7.3%	5.9%
Shanley	42.4%	8.0%	X	8.2%	8.0%	X	8.0%	8.0%	10.0%	7.6%
Simone	4.8%	30.9%	6.5%	6.5%	6.3%	X	6.0%	25.3%	7.4%	6.3%

Truth Booth

John and Simone, who had about a 25% chance of being a match by virtue of their Episode 1 pairing, were not in fact a match. This cuts the number of possible combinations down to 1,766. That frees up Jacy to move in on John - convenient, since they're the most likely couple on the board to be a perfect match. The remaining odds:

	Adam	Chris S	Chris T	Dillan	Dre	Ethan	Joey	John	Ryan	Wesley
Amber	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X
Ashleigh	4.5%	27.4%	6.3%	6.3%	27.8%	X	5.6%	8.5%	7.5%	6.1%
Brittany	27.3%	4.7%	6.3%	6.0%	6.1%	X	28.4%	8.4%	7.1%	5.6%
Coleysia	5.1%	4.4%	6.2%	29.2%	5.5%	X	6.1%	7.9%	7.2%	28.3%
Jacy	3.2%	3.3%	4.7%	4.7%	27.4%	X	4.4%	41.4%	6.1%	4.8%
Jessica	4.4%	4.4%	32.3%	25.9%	5.7%	X	5.7%	8.0%	8.2%	5.4%
Kayla	4.1%	3.5%	5.3%	5.3%	4.9%	X	5.5%	7.0%	36.2%	28.3%
Paige	4.6%	4.5%	30.2%	5.7%	5.9%	X	28.1%	8.1%	7.3%	5.6%
Shanley	40.4%	6.5%	X	8.2%	8.1%	X	8.2%	10.6%	10.4%	7.6%
Simone	6.4%	41.4%	8.7%	8.7%	8.5%	X	8.0%	X	10.0%	8.4%

Matchup Ceremony

The men got to go first again, and a few of them are feeling good about what happened in the previous episode.

• Dillan - Coleysia (repeat from episode 1)
• John - Jessica
• Ryan - Kayla (repeat from episode 2)
• Ethan - Amber (confirmed match)
• Dre - Ashleigh (repeat from episode 2)
• Chris T - Simone
• Adam - Brittany
• Chris S - Paige
• Joey - Shanley
• Wesley - Jacy

Unfortunately, they were by and large incorrect, as only 2 of 10 pairings were correct. No outcome would have eliminated fewer possible combinations. The group is left with 583 possible combinations.:

	Adam	Chris S	Chris T	Dillan	Dre	Ethan	Joey	John	Ryan	Wesley
Amber	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X
Ashleigh	4.8%	30.9%	6.7%	6.7%	17.3%	X	6.9%	9.8%	10.5%	6.5%
Brittany	18.4%	5.1%	6.7%	7.5%	6.9%	X	32.1%	8.6%	8.4%	6.3%
Coleysia	7.9%	5.3%	6.0%	22.1%	6.3%	X	6.7%	7.4%	7.4%	30.9%
Jacy	4.1%	2.2%	2.9%	5.1%	30.9%	X	3.1%	45.3%	6.3%	X
Jessica	3.9%	2.7%	35.3%	26.9%	6.9%	X	4.6%	4.6%	9.1%	5.8%
Kayla	5.3%	3.3%	5.1%	5.3%	7.0%	X	6.9%	7.4%	28.8%	30.9%
Paige	4.6%	1.4%	31.6%	6.5%	5.7%	X	31.6%	7.4%	6.5%	4.8%
Shanley	43.6%	5.5%	X	9.6%	9.9%	X	1.7%	9.6%	12.5%	7.5%
Simone	7.4%	43.6%	5.7%	10.1%	9.1%	X	6.5%	X	10.5%	7.2%

Potential strategy will be discussed in a future post.