Showing posts with label Season 4 Episode 5. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Season 4 Episode 5. Show all posts

Monday, July 18, 2016

Season 4, Episode 5 Probabilities - Live Blog

Please welcome back guest blogger Nicole!

Quick recap of last week:

  • The group still only has 1 confirmed perfect match
  • We've confirmed Asaf is a d-bag
  • Gio is no longer ring shopping for Kaylen
  • Every dude loves Julia
  • There were 4 beams of light at the last match up ceremony

10:02 - Stephen is clearly over Gio's drama.

10:03 - Tori and Morgan (19.6%) are my heroes for their little late night make over for John

10:05 - I wonder what Julia considers "cheesy."

10:06 - Challenge time!!! Ryan is busting out the beer goggles... which are probably necessary since these kids probably don't know how to operate sober.

10:08 - Finishing order is Stephen, Prosper, Gio, and Morgan....but it's all about how many you got right.

10:13 - Prosper and Gio advance. Prosper picks Nicole (18.7%) and Gio brings Kaylen (66.7%). I WONDER WHO THE GROUP WILL VOTE IN?!?!?!?!

10:14 - Morgan is licking whipped cream off Tori's foot. Somewhat disturbing and gross.

10:15 - Victoria says she is excited to have Cam (10.5%) be aggressive, but she doesn't look that excited.

10:21 - Cam has "no idea" that Victoria and him hooked up. How does one not remember that? Come on now.

10:23 - This date looks AMAZING.

10:25 -  Kaylen is speaking some real truth right now and OMG THEY ONLY HAVE KNOWN EACH OTHER FOR A WEEK AND A HALF?!?!?!?!

10:26 - Gio is convinced that Julia is his match, but odds are not in their favor.

Truth Booth

10:28 - Gio and Kaylen to the Truth Booth....shocking. Kaylen is clearly elated to be there; Gio not so much.

10:32 - THEY AREN'T A MATCH!!!! Woah. Kaylen is taking this MUCH better than I would have thought. This leaves 73 combinations. Most notably, Alyssa-Sam and Camille-Asaf are extremely likely at this point. Could have an inferred perfect match later in the episode...

AsafCamCameronGiovanniJohnMorganProsperSamStephenTyler
AlyssaX1.4%X2.7%XXX95.9%XX
Camille80.8%XX5.5%X2.7%5.5%X1.4%4.1%
Emma1.4%12.3%X15.1%15.1%9.6%32.9%X5.5%8.2%
Francesca11.0%5.5%X9.6%13.7%16.4%12.3%X6.8%24.7%
JuliaX32.9%X20.5%X15.1%9.6%X17.8%4.1%
Kaylen5.5%13.7%XX19.2%13.7%15.1%2.7%16.4%13.7%
MikalaXXMatchXXXXXXX
Nicole1.4%6.8%X20.5%11.0%16.4%17.8%X15.1%11.0%
ToriX6.8%X13.7%8.2%17.8%X1.4%30.1%21.9%
VictoriaX20.5%X12.3%32.9%8.2%6.8%X6.8%12.3%


10:33 - And what are the odds of Gio having a threesome? I can confidently say 0%.

10:35 - Within 2 minutes, Gio has successfully turned off Kaylen, Camille, Francesca, and Tori. That leaves him with 5 girls for that threesome.

10:39 - Tori is taking the reins here on devising a strategy...not sure if I agree with it, but at least it's a plan

10:40 - Guys, words are super cool

10:45 - Victoria picks Prosper... which messes up the plan Tori tried to put in place and then Prosper proceeds to crush Nicole's heart.

10:54 - Gio continues his mission to turn off every single girl in the house by commenting on Camille's nipples. Good work, dude.

Matchup Ceremony
  • Emma - Cam (repeat from episode 4)
  • Victoria - Prosper
  • Kaylen - Tyler
  • Nicole - Stephen (repeat from episode 1)
  • Camille - Asaf (repeat from episode 4)
  • Alyssa - Sam (repeat from episodes 1, 3, 4)
  • Julia - Morgan (repeat from episode 1)
  • Tori - John
  • Francesca - Giovanni
Blackout odds: 0% (Each of the 73 remaining combinations contain at least one of the matches above).
Instant win possible: No, as they could only repeat 2 matchups from episode 1.
Maximum possible number of lights: 7
Most likely number of lights: 3

10:56 - Keeping Alyssa and Sam together is the big reason they're guaranteed not to blackout.

4 lights means 21 combinations remain.

AsafCamCameronGiovanniJohnMorganProsperSamStephenTyler
AlyssaX4.8%X9.5%XXX85.7%XX
Camille95.2%XXXXXXXX4.8%
EmmaX9.5%X4.8%19.0%4.8%38.1%X9.5%14.3%
FrancescaX9.5%X19.0%14.3%19.0%4.8%XX33.3%
JuliaX19.0%X28.6%X28.6%9.5%X9.5%4.8%
Kaylen4.8%19.0%XX14.3%4.8%14.3%9.5%14.3%19.0%
MikalaXXMatchXXXXXXX
NicoleX4.8%X4.8%19.0%19.0%23.8%X28.6%X
ToriX14.3%X19.0%4.8%14.3%X4.8%23.8%19.0%
VictoriaX19.0%X14.3%28.6%9.5%9.5%X14.3%4.8%


Those 21 combinations below the jump...