Wednesday, September 30, 2015

Season 3, Episode 2 Probabilities - Live Blog

10:05: USA! Except... uh... 51 states?

10:08: Pretty interesting challenge... memorization and running.

10:09: Am I crazy or does Hannah look like Hannah Davis?

10:17: Kiki crazy

10:17: If this were to follow the same formula as previous seasons, Kiki and Devin could go into the truth booth, come out not a match, and then keep hooking up all season.

10:18 "I'm a GIANT mama's boy."

10:19: Kayla and Connor with some early chemistry.

10:21: OK, Mike may actually be the filet mignon of his craft.

10:28: Refreshing to hear Tyler having a personality other than "I'm just here to have sex."

Truth Booth

10:30: Devin and Kiki have a 9.8% chance of being a perfect match.

10:38: They're always surprised when a truth booth results in not a perfect match, but that's the math for you.

548,821 combinations remain.

AlecAustinChuckConnorDevinHunterMikeNelsonTylerZak
Amanda8.8%8.4%8.8%8.8%9.8%9.8%18.9%8.8%8.8%8.8%
Britni8.6%8.3%8.6%8.6%9.6%21.6%8.6%8.6%8.6%8.6%
Chelsey8.8%8.4%8.8%18.9%9.8%9.8%8.8%8.8%8.8%8.8%
Cheyenne8.8%8.4%8.8%8.8%9.8%9.8%8.8%18.9%8.8%8.8%
Hannah8.8%8.4%18.9%8.8%9.8%9.8%8.8%8.8%8.8%8.8%
Kayla8.8%8.4%8.8%8.8%9.8%9.8%8.8%8.8%8.8%18.9%
Kiki10.8%24.3%10.8%10.8%XX10.8%10.8%10.8%10.8%
Melanie8.6%8.3%8.6%8.6%21.6%9.6%8.6%8.6%8.6%8.6%
Rashida8.8%8.4%8.8%8.8%9.8%9.8%8.8%8.8%18.9%8.8%
Stacey18.9%8.4%8.8%8.8%9.8%9.8%8.8%8.8%8.8%8.8%


10:40: What a surprise, my prediction of Kiki and Devin staying together was correct!

10:48: Devin is a math genius apparently.

10:55: Devin reciprocates Melanie's pick from episode 1... but she doesn't seem happy about it.

10:57: LOTS of repeats from episode 1. A zero here would get them a lot closer to getting the right answer (it would leave 63,208 combinations), but it would also dock their prize $250,000.

Matchup Ceremony
  • Hunter - Stacey
  • Austin - Kiki (repeat from episode 1)
  • Connor - Kayla
  • Nelson - Cheyenne (repeat from episode 1)
  • Mike - Amanda (repeat from episode 1)
  • Zak - Britni
  • Devin - Melanie (repeat from episode 1)
  • Tyler - Rashida (repeat from episode 1)
  • Alec - Chelsey
  • Chuck - Hannah (repeat from episode 1)
BLACKOUT! The chances of a blackout with this specific combination was 11.5%. They got really unlucky here.

What are the odds of a blackout?

That reduces the total prize to a 30-year annuity that will pay out $750,000 - or $18,750 per person in present value.

AlecAustinChuckConnorDevinHunterMikeNelsonTylerZak
Amanda7.4%13.9%13.3%7.4%16.2%8.0%X13.3%13.3%7.4%
Britni2.0%6.9%6.5%2.3%8.1%54.8%6.5%6.5%6.5%X
ChelseyX7.7%7.4%48.6%9.0%2.8%7.4%7.4%7.4%2.4%
Cheyenne7.4%13.9%13.3%7.4%16.2%8.0%13.3%X13.3%7.4%
Hannah7.4%13.9%X7.4%16.2%8.0%13.3%13.3%13.3%7.4%
Kayla2.8%7.8%7.5%X9.1%2.4%7.5%7.5%7.5%48.1%
Kiki9.6%X17.8%9.6%XX17.8%17.8%17.8%9.6%
Melanie7.6%14.3%13.7%7.6%X8.2%13.7%13.7%13.7%7.6%
Rashida7.4%13.9%13.3%7.4%16.2%8.0%13.3%13.3%X7.4%
Stacey48.6%7.7%7.4%2.4%9.0%X7.4%7.4%7.4%2.8%


63,208 combinations remain. They know for certain that 2 perfect matches are among: Chelsea - Connor, Stacey - Alec, Britni - Hunter, Kayla - Zak.

New this year, see how the competitors match up by season:


Thursday, September 24, 2015

Season 3, Episode 1 Probabilities - Live Blog

MTV's Are You The One? features 10 men and 10 women looking for their perfect match. If they manage to guess the exactly right combination, they'll split $1,000,000.

Here I'll be keeping track of the possible remaining perfect match combinations (with the help of a computer), and looking into the potential strategy of playing this game. The math work here will be independent of the romance and excitement that comes with the pairings. Unless noted otherwise, assume the probabilities of a matchup here being successful are random, ignoring chemistry and all the parts of the show that are actually fun.

Prize and Probability of Winning

All 20 winners will split a 30-year annuity that will pay out $1,000,000. That means if they elect to take the present day "lump sum," they'll end up with around $25,000 each (in addition to a shot at finding their perfect match and getting some weekly face time on MTV).

The number of possible permutations in the original game is 10 factorial = 10! = 10 * 9 * 8 * 7 * 6 * 5 * 4 * 3 * 2 * 1 = 3,628,800. Put simply, a random guess would have a 1 in 3,628,800 chance of winning (0.00002756%).

The show has multiple challenges where additional information is provided, reducing the number of possible combinations. The contestants only have 10 episodes to find the perfect match, so they'll need to reduce it quickly to have a chance.

Live Blog

11:02: And we're off!

11:06: The twist this year is that a "blackout" of no matches reduces the payout by $250,000.

11:07: I was going to say no Asians this year, but Kiki is Asian apparently.

11:10: This got super serious super quickly. Rashida apparently thought making out in the first 3 minutes was planting a flag

11:12: Did nobody tell these people what this show is about? Of course people are going to be making out with multiple people. I feel like it would be way more real if one of the guys was mad that nobody was making out with him.

11:18: Devin is my early favorite.

11:19: Not knowing half of their names might be a problem.

11:20: Make Tyler my new favorite.

11:30: "You're my match" is top quality dirty talk.

11:34: Good strategy to puke with the pants off.

11:37: Hunter and Kiki in the truth booth. Wow, people really don't want to go into the truth booth.

Truth Booth


Hunter and Kiki are not a match. As in season 1, this leaves 3,265,920 combinations.

AlecAustinChuckConnorDevinHunterMikeNelsonTylerZak
Amanda9.9%9.9%9.9%9.9%9.9%11.1%9.9%9.9%9.9%9.9%
Britni9.9%9.9%9.9%9.9%9.9%11.1%9.9%9.9%9.9%9.9%
Chelsey9.9%9.9%9.9%9.9%9.9%11.1%9.9%9.9%9.9%9.9%
Cheyenne9.9%9.9%9.9%9.9%9.9%11.1%9.9%9.9%9.9%9.9%
Hannah9.9%9.9%9.9%9.9%9.9%11.1%9.9%9.9%9.9%9.9%
Kayla9.9%9.9%9.9%9.9%9.9%11.1%9.9%9.9%9.9%9.9%
Kiki11.1%11.1%11.1%11.1%11.1%X11.1%11.1%11.1%11.1%
Melanie9.9%9.9%9.9%9.9%9.9%11.1%9.9%9.9%9.9%9.9%
Rashida9.9%9.9%9.9%9.9%9.9%11.1%9.9%9.9%9.9%9.9%
Stacey9.9%9.9%9.9%9.9%9.9%11.1%9.9%9.9%9.9%9.9%


11:54: Wow, Nelson blowing up Devin's shit!!!

11:56: How can Stacey and Alec fight like that on just the first pick? What?

Matchup Ceremony
  • Hannah - Chuck
  • Rashida - Tyler
  • Amanda - Mike
  • Melanie - Devin
  • Chelsey - Connor
  • Kiki - Austin
  • Stacey - Alec
  • Britni - Hunter
  • Cheyenne - Nelson
  • Kayla - Zak
The chance of this matchup ceremony resulting in a blackout is 36.3% (1,186,632 possible blackout combinations). But there were 2 matches - leaving 608,153 combinations.

AlecAustinChuckConnorDevinHunterMikeNelsonTylerZak
Amanda8.9%8.7%8.9%8.9%8.9%9.8%19.5%8.9%8.9%8.9%
Britni8.7%8.5%8.7%8.7%8.7%22.0%8.7%8.7%8.7%8.7%
Chelsey8.9%8.7%8.9%19.5%8.9%9.8%8.9%8.9%8.9%8.9%
Cheyenne8.9%8.7%8.9%8.9%8.9%9.8%8.9%19.5%8.9%8.9%
Hannah8.9%8.7%19.5%8.9%8.9%9.8%8.9%8.9%8.9%8.9%
Kayla8.9%8.7%8.9%8.9%8.9%9.8%8.9%8.9%8.9%19.5%
Kiki9.8%22.0%9.8%9.8%9.8%X9.8%9.8%9.8%9.8%
Melanie8.9%8.7%8.9%8.9%19.5%9.8%8.9%8.9%8.9%8.9%
Rashida8.9%8.7%8.9%8.9%8.9%9.8%8.9%8.9%19.5%8.9%
Stacey19.5%8.7%8.9%8.9%8.9%9.8%8.9%8.9%8.9%8.9%