Showing posts with label Season 4 Episode 2. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Season 4 Episode 2. Show all posts

Monday, June 20, 2016

Season 4, Episode 2 Probabilities - Live Blog

Off the heels of the most matches in a season premiere yet, it's time for episode 2. 205,176 combinations remain.

10:06: This seems like a painful challenge.

10:07: I like that the results are shown on-screen now. Apparently Mikala has a fake ass.

10:08: Why do they have to lick both sides? Seems like just one side could be fine.

10:09: Morgan - Nicole (7.8%) and John - Julia (7.8%) are the first two pairings - why didn't they pick people from the first matchup ceremony? Sam - Alyssa (29.4%) and Francesa - Asaf (29.4%) are contending for third place.

10:14: It's Francesca and Asaf. As one commenter pointed out last week, Asaf was on So You Think You Can Dance? last season before coming to AYTO.

10:17: So authentic! Except that ass.

10:25: Tori seems pretty smart.

Truth Booth

10:28: "John and Julia have to go into the Truth Booth because they're both idiots." And they do!

10:33: Not a match! John is devastated. 189,152 combinations remain.

AsafCamCameronGiovanniJohnMorganProsperSamStephenTyler
Alyssa7.8%7.8%7.8%7.8%8.5%7.6%8.5%28.8%7.8%7.6%
Camille7.6%7.6%7.6%7.6%8.2%7.3%31.9%7.6%7.6%7.3%
Emma7.6%7.6%7.6%7.6%31.9%7.3%8.2%7.6%7.6%7.3%
Francesca28.8%7.8%7.8%7.8%8.5%7.6%8.5%7.8%7.8%7.6%
Julia8.5%8.5%8.5%8.5%X31.9%9.1%8.5%8.5%8.2%
Kaylen7.8%7.8%7.8%28.8%8.5%7.6%8.5%7.8%7.8%7.6%
Mikala7.8%7.8%28.8%7.8%8.5%7.6%8.5%7.8%7.8%7.6%
Nicole7.8%7.8%7.8%7.8%8.5%7.6%8.5%7.8%28.8%7.6%
Tori8.5%8.5%8.5%8.5%9.1%8.2%X8.5%8.5%31.9%
Victoria7.8%28.8%7.8%7.8%8.5%7.6%8.5%7.8%7.8%7.6%


10:35: Why is there always someone who just doesn't understand how human relationships work?

10:36: BRO! BRO!

10:37: WE'RE FROM THE SAME STATE!

Kaylen and Gio first to the boom boom room.

Matchup Ceremony

10:51: Morgan's one of those guys who "just goes for it" - thinks one thing and doesn't think about the next step at all. He looks like he's hurting after the whole group shit on him.

10:53: Giovanni and Kaylen coming out swinging and talking marriage. This is crazy!
  • Cam - Julia
  • Tyler - Victoria
  • Stephen - Tori
  • Cameron - Mikala (repeat from episode 1)
  • Morgan - Alyssa
  • Sam - Francesca
  • Prosper - Emma
  • Asaf - Camille
  • Giovanni - Kaylen (repeat from episode 1)
  • John - Nicole
Blackout odds: 28.8% (54,525 possible blackout combinations of 189,152). Pretty high!
Instant win possible: No, as they could only repeat 3 matchups from episode 1.
Maximum possible number of lights: 8
Most likely number of lights: 1
Blackout odds: Also, since they only repeated two couples from the first matchup ceremony, we know they won't win this week.

3 lights again - pretty decent progress. 16,570 possibilities remain.

AsafCamCameronGiovanniJohnMorganProsperSamStephenTyler
Alyssa7.7%7.5%4.7%4.7%8.5%21.0%8.7%21.7%7.8%7.8%
Camille21.0%7.5%4.6%4.6%8.3%7.7%23.7%7.5%7.5%7.6%
Emma7.5%7.4%4.5%4.5%23.0%7.5%23.0%7.6%7.5%7.4%
Francesca21.6%7.7%4.6%4.6%8.6%7.5%8.4%21.6%7.7%7.6%
Julia8.6%23.6%5.0%5.0%X23.6%9.2%8.3%8.4%8.3%
Kaylen4.7%4.6%1.5%60.7%5.1%4.6%5.0%4.6%4.6%4.6%
Mikala4.7%4.6%60.7%1.5%5.1%4.6%5.0%4.6%4.6%4.6%
Nicole7.8%7.7%4.7%4.7%23.8%7.5%8.3%7.7%20.4%7.5%
Tori8.4%8.2%5.0%5.0%9.2%8.4%X8.4%23.7%23.6%
Victoria7.9%21.0%4.8%4.8%8.6%7.7%8.6%7.9%7.7%21.0%