Showing posts with label Season 4 Episode 4. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Season 4 Episode 4. Show all posts

Monday, July 11, 2016

Season 4, Episode 4 Probabilities - Live Blog

Due to technical difficulties on my end, please welcome my friend Nicole who did the guest blog this week!

10:03 - ooooo Gio is in TROUBLE...the Kaylen/Gio honeymoon is over. Guys, here is the lesson: if you're in a committed relationship of 3 days, don't throw pie at other girls

10:07 - Gio decides Making up in the boom boom room is the best thing...good call...

10:08 - What girl wouldn't like a guy that eats food off her butt? That's a real man

POOPED HIS PANTS TWICE IN THE PAST 5 YEARS!!!  WHAT?!?!?! ARE YOU KIDDING ME???

10:10 - These guys are gross.  So, so gross.

Challenge winners is Emma! She gets to pick the dates? Interesting...
Emma goes with Stephen...he pooped his pants (twice) and only a 7.2%
She chooses Morgan for Julia. Morgan's pumped (actually the best choice at 18.5%)
Tori and Asaf...not shocking. Probably not a match (only 9.1%)

10:18 - Boys night...Gio is in trouble and confused about his ENTIRE life right now.

10:20 - Trojan product placement...nicely done.


10:26 - Oh Tori, Tori, Tori...you are going to be so sad when he tells you he did Francesca (sponsored by Trojan)

10:27 - ....and Tori is upset. Not shocking. It's OK, Tori he won't be your match.

10:30 - Ryan rubbing salt into Kaylen's wounds by checking in with the house's 'Solid couple.' Burnnnnnn

10:30 - But Kaylen and Gio have taken a sudden turn for the worse!

10:33 - Asaf and Tori are off to the truth booth....

Truth Booth

10:36: NOT A MATCH!! This leaves 1,153 possible combinations.

AsafCamCameronGiovanniJohnMorganProsperSamStephenTyler
Alyssa8.6%9.1%X3.8%10.2%4.2%8.6%38.2%7.2%10.0%
Camille33.4%8.4%X5.2%9.3%8.7%11.7%7.8%6.7%8.8%
Emma8.3%7.6%X4.2%14.1%8.9%34.4%7.5%6.5%8.3%
Francesca16.2%10.6%X5.4%12.7%23.3%10.6%3.3%8.0%9.9%
Julia10.6%9.4%X6.6%X18.5%11.6%10.6%9.9%22.9%
Kaylen4.7%5.4%X59.4%6.9%5.0%5.0%4.1%3.8%5.6%
MikalaXXMatchXXXXXXX
Nicole8.9%23.0%X5.7%8.7%11.4%9.3%9.5%10.9%12.6%
ToriX9.9%X4.4%12.2%9.7%X10.0%39.5%14.2%
Victoria9.3%16.7%X5.3%25.8%10.1%8.8%9.0%7.5%7.6%

10:38 - Stephen is all about Julia.  Julia, look out, he pooped his pants....twice

10:40 - Gio is all about Julia (6.6%), not Kaylen (59.4%)

10:44 - Since when are bralettes a replacement for a shirt??

Matchup Ceremony
  • Morgan - Tori
  • Prosper - Nicole
  • Asaf - Camille (repeat from episodes 2 and 3)
  • John - Victoria (repeat from episode 3)
  • Giovanni - Kaylen (repeat from episodes 1-3)
  • Stephen - Julia
  • Tyler - Francesca
  • Sam - Alyssa (repeat from episodes 1 and 3)
  • Cam - Emma

Blackout odds: 2.8% (32 possible blackout combinations of 1,153 remaining).
Instant win possible: No, as they could only repeat 2 matchups from episode 2
Maximum possible number of lights: 8, which would reveal the winning combination.
Most likely number of lights: 3

4 lights mean 219 combinations remain.

AsafCamCameronGiovanniJohnMorganProsperSamStephenTyler
Alyssa5.0%10.0%X0.9%5.0%2.7%9.1%49.8%6.8%10.5%
Camille53.9%6.8%X1.8%3.7%7.8%5.9%6.4%4.6%9.1%
Emma7.3%14.2%X5.0%11.9%9.6%24.2%7.3%12.3%8.2%
Francesca13.2%13.2%X3.2%13.7%15.1%14.2%2.3%7.8%17.4%
Julia8.7%13.7%X6.8%X15.5%13.7%9.1%19.2%13.2%
Kaylen1.8%4.6%X66.7%6.4%4.6%5.0%0.9%5.5%4.6%
MikalaXXMatchXXXXXXX
Nicole5.9%13.2%X6.8%5.9%14.6%18.7%9.6%11.0%14.2%
ToriX13.7%X4.6%12.8%19.6%X10.5%23.3%15.5%
Victoria4.1%10.5%X4.1%40.6%10.5%9.1%4.1%9.6%7.3%