Monday, September 9, 2019

Season 8, Episode 12 Probabilities - Live Blog

Last episode of the season. No reunion on the schedule. Gotta imagine they win it... right?

It's looking likely that this is the fourth house to go into the final matchup ceremony not knowing if they have the right combination or not.

11:09: The stragglers are pairing off. Justin and Amber trying each other out... Basit is frustrated with the stragglers.

11:14: This week's challenge is people going head-to-head on what they know of the other housemates' love languages. The winners are Kylie, Basit, and Kari, who pick Amber, Jonathan, and Max respectively. Kylie - Amber is a 25% match and Kari - Max are a 50% match.

The expected value for each of the two main couples is a 50% chance at winning the money. Take Kari and Max and you're guaranteed a 50% chance at the Matchup Ceremony. Take Kylie and Amber and you've got a 25% chance of winning in the Truth Booth, with a 1-in-3 chance of picking the right combination out of the remaining 3. Knowing the probabilities, I'd probably go with Kylie and Amber and hope for the sure bet...

11:23: Kari and Max trying to talk themselves into this coupling...

Truth Booth #10

It's Amber and Kylie...

11:30: No match. 3 possibilities left.

AashaAmberBasitBrandonDannyJasmineJennaJonathan
AashaXXXMatchXXXX
AmberXXXXXXXX
BasitXXXXXXXMatch
BrandonMatchXXXXXXX
DannyXXXXXXXX
JasmineXXXXXXXX
JennaXXXXXXXX
JonathanXXMatchXXXXX
JustinX33.3%XXXXXX
KaiXXXXMatchXXX
KariX33.3%XXXXXX
KylieXXXXXXXX
MaxXXXXXXXX
NourXXXXXMatchXX
PaigeXXXXXXMatchX
RemyX33.3%XXXXXX
JustinKaiKariKylieMaxNourPaigeRemy
AashaXXXXXXXX
Amber33.3%X33.3%XXXX33.3%
BasitXXXXXXXX
BrandonXXXXXXXX
DannyXMatchXXXXXX
JasmineXXXXXMatchXX
JennaXXXXXXMatchX
JonathanXXXXXXXX
JustinXXX33.3%XXX33.3%
KaiXXXXXXXX
KariXXXX66.7%XXX
Kylie33.3%XXX33.3%XX33.3%
MaxXX66.7%33.3%XXXX
NourXXXXXXXX
PaigeXXXXXXXX
Remy33.3%XX33.3%XXXX
  1. Amber-Justin Kari-Max Kylie-Remy
  2. Amber-Kari Justin-Remy Kylie-Max
  3. Amber-Remy Justin-Kylie Kari-Max
11:31: Season 3, the house went in with 4 combinations left and won. Season 5 they had 2 choices and lost. Season 7, 2 possibilities and win. A loss here could mean that, for the first time, the right perfect matches are unless MTV tells us.

11:31: Amber floats back to Justin. Max arguing for Kari. And that leaves Kylie and Remy?

11:33: Now Amber and Remy are talking themselves into each other... Justin feels out of the loop.

11:35: Amber, Kari, Kylie, Paige, Danny, and others go skinny-dipping. Max, Basit, and Jonathan opt out... Basit lays down an all-time meme with "this doesn't look sanitary at all" - can we GIF them??

11:40: Some pushing for Amber to go with Remy because of love over lust.

Matchup Ceremony #10

Here we go.
  • Danny - Kai (previously inferred perfect match)
  • Max - Kari
  • Amber - Remy
  • Basit - Jonathan (previously inferred perfect match)
  • Jenna - Paige (previously inferred perfect match)
  • Nour - Jasmine (previously inferred perfect match)
  • Justin - Kylie
Blackout probability: 0%
Instant win possible: Yes
Maximum number of lights: 8

11:43: Brandon gets a talking head!

11:50: Amber makes the call - going with Remy over Justin. Justin doesn't like it.

11:53: We'll know the final couples based on the number of beams.
  1. Amber-Justin Kari-Max Kylie-Remy - 6 beams
  2. Amber-Kari Justin-Remy Kylie-Max - 5 beams
  3. Amber-Remy Justin-Kylie Kari-Max - win

11:54: The 6th beam means Kari and Max are a match, and it's down to Amber's call.

11:59: And they win! $750,000 is the prize after one blackout.

12:02: Finally, Justin is thankful that Amber didn't pick him!
  • Basit - Jonathan (matchup ceremony #5)
  • Aasha - Brandon (truth booth #6)
  • Jasmine - Nour (truth booth #6)
  • Danny - Kai (matchup ceremony #8)
  • Jenna - Paige (matchup ceremony #8)
  • Kari - Max (truth booth #10)
  • Amber - Remy (truth booth #10)
  • Justin - Kylie (matchup ceremony #10)

No news on what or when the next season will be...

Thanks to everyone for following the blog!

Monday, September 2, 2019

Season 8, Episode 11 Probabilities - Live Blog

After a week off, we join the show waiting to see if there are 3 or 8 beams from Matchup Ceremony #8...

11:06: And... as expected, it's 3 beams. This means there are 8 matchups left with two new perfect matches: Danny and Kai plus Jenna and Paige. That means ten housemates are in perfect matches, and six are not. The bad news for the six: each has 3-5 possible matches left, and none a better than 50% chance. And none of those are Justin and Max.

AashaAmberBasitBrandonDannyJasmineJennaJonathan
AashaXXXMatchXXXX
AmberXXXXXXXX
BasitXXXXXXXMatch
BrandonMatchXXXXXXX
DannyXXXXXXXX
JasmineXXXXXXXX
JennaXXXXXXXX
JonathanXXMatchXXXXX
JustinX12.5%XXXXXX
KaiXXXXMatchXXX
KariX25.0%XXXXXX
KylieX25.0%XXXXXX
MaxX12.5%XXXXXX
NourXXXXXMatchXX
PaigeXXXXXXMatchX
RemyX25.0%XXXXXX
JustinKaiKariKylieMaxNourPaigeRemy
AashaXXXXXXXX
Amber12.5%X25.0%25.0%12.5%XX25.0%
BasitXXXXXXXX
BrandonXXXXXXXX
DannyXMatchXXXXXX
JasmineXXXXXMatchXX
JennaXXXXXXMatchX
JonathanXXXXXXXX
JustinXX37.5%25.0%XXX25.0%
KaiXXXXXXXX
Kari37.5%XXX37.5%XXX
Kylie25.0%XXX25.0%XX25.0%
MaxXX37.5%25.0%XXX25.0%
NourXXXXXXXX
PaigeXXXXXXXX
Remy25.0%XX25.0%25.0%XXX
  1. Amber-Justin Kari-Max Kylie-Remy
  2. Amber-Kari Justin-Kylie Max-Remy
  3. Amber-Kari Justin-Remy Kylie-Max
  4. Amber-Kylie Justin-Kari Max-Remy
  5. Amber-Kylie Justin-Remy Kari-Max
  6. Amber-Max Justin-Kari Kylie-Remy
  7. Amber-Remy Justin-Kari Kylie-Max
  8. Amber-Remy Justin-Kylie Kari-Max

These 8 possibilities are only half of the possible 15 combinations of 6 housemates. The eliminated couplings: Justin - Max, Kari - Kylie, and Kari - Remy.

11:07: Max looked pretty devastated in the confessional, which was a tell. Danny really upset in real-time.

11:08: Justin is ready to cut this off. Doesn't feel like this is going to be a couple that resumes after the show. Justin wants to find his perfect match, but Max isn't ready to move on from his first boyfriend.

11:10: Danny and Kai seem pretty encouraged about their opportunity to figure out why they are a perfect match. (Hi Danny!)

11:20: The first segment before the commercial break was definitely tough - and looks like Terrence J is bringing a different tone for the challenge. The couples have to match answers to questions.

For the challenge, the six picked: Amber - Max (12.5%), Kylie - Remy (25%), Justin - Kari (37.5%).

People feel good about Justin and Kari - they're pretty well aligned and the top couple to send into the Truth Booth.

The date is Danny - Kai, Amber - Max, and Justin - Kari.

Truth Booth #9

11:33: The house picks Amber and Max, mostly out of wanting to give Max a great opportunity. Amber doesn't seem happy about it, but she's going with it. Justin isn't happy either, mostly because he wants Amber!

No match means 7 combinations remain. And instead of making Max happier, his sadness compounds.
AashaAmberBasitBrandonDannyJasmineJennaJonathan
AashaXXXMatchXXXX
AmberXXXXXXXX
BasitXXXXXXXMatch
BrandonMatchXXXXXXX
DannyXXXXXXXX
JasmineXXXXXXXX
JennaXXXXXXXX
JonathanXXMatchXXXXX
JustinX14.3%XXXXXX
KaiXXXXMatchXXX
KariX28.6%XXXXXX
KylieX28.6%XXXXXX
MaxXXXXXXXX
NourXXXXXMatchXX
PaigeXXXXXXMatchX
RemyX28.6%XXXXXX
JustinKaiKariKylieMaxNourPaigeRemy
AashaXXXXXXXX
Amber14.3%X28.6%28.6%XXX28.6%
BasitXXXXXXXX
BrandonXXXXXXXX
DannyXMatchXXXXXX
JasmineXXXXXMatchXX
JennaXXXXXXMatchX
JonathanXXXXXXXX
JustinXX28.6%28.6%XXX28.6%
KaiXXXXXXXX
Kari28.6%XXX42.9%XXX
Kylie28.6%XXX28.6%XX14.3%
MaxXX42.9%28.6%XXX28.6%
NourXXXXXXXX
PaigeXXXXXXXX
Remy28.6%XX14.3%28.6%XXX
  1. Amber-Justin Kari-Max Kylie-Remy
  2. Amber-Kari Justin-Kylie Max-Remy
  3. Amber-Kari Justin-Remy Kylie-Max
  4. Amber-Kylie Justin-Kari Max-Remy
  5. Amber-Kylie Justin-Remy Kari-Max
  6. Amber-Remy Justin-Kari Kylie-Max
  7. Amber-Remy Justin-Kylie Kari-Max
11:39: Danny gets his first pass in the Boom Boom Room, and Kylie launches her campaign for Amber!

11:47: Kari and Max talking about loyalty and they're on the same wavelength. Looks like the house is centering on matchup 5 above. However, it sounds like Justin may not be on board for this... and may want to push for matchup 4 instead. Either way, there would be 3 possible sets of lights - 5, 6, and 8 - with a very high probability of not knowing the matches going into the final matchup ceremony if they don't win.

Matchup Ceremony #9
  • Paige - Jenna (previously inferred perfect match)
  • Amber - Kylie
  • Nour - Jasmine (previously inferred perfect match)
  • Danny - Kai (previously inferred perfect match)
  • Max - Kari
  • Justin - Remy
  • Basit - Jonathan (previously inferred perfect match)
11:55: Danny says he and Kai went with a "take your son to work day" theme!

11:56: Here are the possibilities remaining which each set of beams:
  1. Amber-Justin Kari-Max Kylie-Remy - 6 beams
  2. Amber-Kari Justin-Kylie Max-Remy - 5 beams
  3. Amber-Kari Justin-Remy Kylie-Max - 6 beams
  4. Amber-Kylie Justin-Kari Max-Remy - 6 beams
  5. Amber-Kylie Justin-Remy Kari-Max - win
  6. Amber-Remy Justin-Kari Kylie-Max - 5 beams
  7. Amber-Remy Justin-Kylie Kari-Max - 6 beams

11:59: Justin's hype is corny like Russell Wilson too.

12:03: 6 beams - and Danny knows it, 6 is really bad because that leaves 4 possibilities. And without a successful Truth Booth (or even with a successful Kari and Max one), they'll go into the finale not knowing the right answer.

AashaAmberBasitBrandonDannyJasmineJennaJonathan
AashaXXXMatchXXXX
AmberXXXXXXXX
BasitXXXXXXXMatch
BrandonMatchXXXXXXX
DannyXXXXXXXX
JasmineXXXXXXXX
JennaXXXXXXXX
JonathanXXMatchXXXXX
JustinX25.0%XXXXXX
KaiXXXXMatchXXX
KariX25.0%XXXXXX
KylieX25.0%XXXXXX
MaxXXXXXXXX
NourXXXXXMatchXX
PaigeXXXXXXMatchX
RemyX25.0%XXXXXX
JustinKaiKariKylieMaxNourPaigeRemy
AashaXXXXXXXX
Amber25.0%X25.0%25.0%XXX25.0%
BasitXXXXXXXX
BrandonXXXXXXXX
DannyXMatchXXXXXX
JasmineXXXXXMatchXX
JennaXXXXXXMatchX
JonathanXXXXXXXX
JustinXX25.0%25.0%XXX25.0%
KaiXXXXXXXX
Kari25.0%XXX50.0%XXX
Kylie25.0%XXX25.0%XX25.0%
MaxXX50.0%25.0%XXX25.0%
NourXXXXXXXX
PaigeXXXXXXXX
Remy25.0%XX25.0%25.0%XXX
  1. Amber-Justin Kari-Max Kylie-Remy
  2. Amber-Kari Justin-Remy Kylie-Max
  3. Amber-Kylie Justin-Kari Max-Remy
  4. Amber-Remy Justin-Kylie Kari-Max