Showing posts with label Season 7 Episode 13. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Season 7 Episode 13. Show all posts

Wednesday, October 24, 2018

Season 7, Episode 13 Probabilities - Live Blog

10:05: Cali talking family. Andrew talking marriage???

10:09: Sam and Tomas?

Matchup Ceremony #9
  • Brett - Bria
  • Kwasi - Nutsa (inferred no match after ceremony 8)
  • Andrew - Cali
  • Moe - Kayla (repeat from ceremony 8)
  • Daniel - Lauren (repeat from ceremony 4)
  • Tomas - Jasmine
  • Lewis - Asia (repeat from ceremony 3, inferred no match after ceremony 7)
  • Cam - Morgan
  • Zak - Samantha (repeat from ceremony 2)
Blackout probabilities:  44% (15 of 34)
Instant win possible: No (fewer than 3 couples repeated from ceremony 1)
Maximum number of lights:  5
Most likely number of lights:  2 (blackout)

4 beams mean 5 possibilities remain.
AndrewBrettCamDanielKwasiLewisMoeShamoyTevinTomasZak
AsiaXXXX60.0%X20.0%XX20.0%X
BriaX20.0%20.0%20.0%X20.0%XXX20.0%X
Cali60.0%XX20.0%XX20.0%XXXX
JasmineXXX20.0%X60.0%XXX20.0%X
KaylaXXXX20.0%X60.0%XXX20.0%
KenyaXXXXXXXXMatchXX
LaurenXX40.0%20.0%20.0%XXXX20.0%X
MariaXXXXXXXMatchXXX
MorganXX20.0%XXXXXXX80.0%
NutsaX40.0%20.0%20.0%XXXXX20.0%X
Samantha40.0%40.0%XXX20.0%XXXXX

  1. Asia - Kwasi, Bria - Tomas, Cali - Moe, Jasmine - Lewis, Kayla - Zak, Lauren - Daniel, Morgan - Cam, Nutsa - Brett, Samantha - Andrew
  2. Asia - Kwasi, Bria - Brett, Cali - Daniel, Jasmine - Lewis, Kayla - Moe, Lauren - Tomas, Morgan - Zak, Nutsa - Cam, Samantha - Andrew
  3. Asia - Tomas, Bria - Cam, Cali - Andrew, Jasmine - Daniel, Kayla - Moe, Lauren - Kwasi, Morgan - Zak, Nutsa - Brett, Samantha - Lewis
  4. Asia - Kwasi, Bria - Daniel, Cali - Andrew, Jasmine - Lewis, Kayla - Moe, Lauren - Cam, Morgan - Zak, Nutsa - Tomas, Samantha - Brett
  5. Asia - Moe, Bria - Lewis, Cali - Andrew, Jasmine - Tomas, Kayla - Kwasi, Lauren - Cam, Morgan - Zak, Nutsa - Daniel, Samantha - Brett
Let's talk strategy. Sending a 20% or 80% couple into the Truth Booth seems like the right move. Getting lucky means we'll only have one combination going into the Matchup Ceremony.

Things look bleak - if we had full control over the Truth Booth and Matchup Ceremony, with all the information we have right now... we only have a 40% chance of winning.

10:43: Brett and Moe are the Fate Button's choice.

10:49: Nutsa and Lauren are also going on the date.

Moe is not a match with either of the women. Brett is not a match with Lauren and Nutsa is a 40% chance...

So, we will not know the right combination going into the finale. Either 2, 3, or 5 combinations will be left depending on which couple is going to the Truth Booth.

Truth Booth #10

It's Brett and Nutsa going to the Truth Booth.

Unfortunately, if the Truth Booth says Brett and Nutsa are a perfect match, we won't be able to infer any other perfect matches.

Brett and Nutsa being a no match will show that Zak and Morgan are a perfect match.