Showing posts with label Season 3 Episode 3. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Season 3 Episode 3. Show all posts

Wednesday, October 7, 2015

Season 3, Episode 3 Probabilities - Live Blog

If you're curious about the chances of a blackout happening, as happened last week, see this post: "What are the odds of a blackout?"

10:04: Oh, she's not wearing a bra.

10:06: OK, Devin has a pretty good point. They all jumped on him for hooking up with a confirmed no match, and now all the couples have to deal with being confirmed non-matches.

10:08: Why wouldn't the smartest guy just stand next to a pole with a tire and let the other guys do the running?

10:09: Wait... if there are only 60 tires, a guy can't stack up his own name 6 times anyway. So the guys who are carrying over their own tires to the poles are doing it wrong.

10:16: WHO IS THIS NERD?

Some relatively weak couples here. Chuck-Amanda (13.3%) is the best choice, with Zak-Kiki (9.6%), and Mike-Britni (6.8%) behind.

10:25: Helicoptering. Bold move.

10:27: Wow, 6 figures at age 22? I guess he's a pretty credible nerd.

10:28: Nerds everywhere!!

10:29: Did Zak just raise the price of prescription drugs 5,000%?

Truth Booth

No match between Zak and Kiki! 57,160 combinations remaining.

AlecAustinChuckConnorDevinHunterMikeNelsonTylerZak
Amanda7.5%13.9%12.9%7.5%16.1%8.2%X12.9%12.9%8.2%
Britni2.2%7.1%6.5%2.5%8.3%53.7%6.5%6.5%6.5%X
ChelseyX8.0%7.6%46.3%9.4%3.1%7.6%7.6%7.6%2.7%
Cheyenne7.5%13.9%12.9%7.5%16.1%8.2%12.9%X12.9%8.2%
Hannah7.5%13.9%X7.5%16.1%8.2%12.9%12.9%12.9%8.2%
Kayla2.5%7.2%6.6%X8.4%2.2%6.6%6.6%6.6%53.2%
Kiki10.6%X19.7%10.6%XX19.7%19.7%19.7%X
Melanie7.8%14.2%13.3%7.8%X8.4%13.3%13.3%13.3%8.4%
Rashida7.5%13.9%12.9%7.5%16.1%8.2%12.9%12.9%X8.2%
Stacey46.8%8.0%7.5%2.7%9.3%X7.5%7.5%7.5%3.1%


It's not always a great strategy to keep going down the line, sending the same person into the truth booth repeatedly. You only have a limited number of guesses, so trying to solve one person can be a rabbit hole. In general, the highest probability guess is usually the best one.

10:36: It's hard enough for me to tell the difference between these people at the start of a season, but adding glasses makes it twice as hard.

10:37: Stage 5 clinger.

10:39: These Sour Patch Kid commercials are awful. (But effective?)

10:42: The team can guarantee no blackout by putting forth the 4 people who were matched up in the first episode but not in the second. It's a pretty low-risk strategy.

10:45: Ryan is getting really unusually involved here! SHOTS FIRED

10:52: Devin unleashing the truth!

Matchup Ceremony
  • Chelsey - Connor (repeat from Episode 1)
  • Kiki - Chuck
  • Amanda - Austin
  • Rashida - Devin
  • Cheyenne - Tyler
  • Melanie - Nelson
  • Hannah - Zak
  • Kayla - Mike
  • Stacey - Alec (repeat from episode 1)
  • Britni - Hunter (repeat from episode 1)
Guaranteed not to be a blackout since they repeated 3 of the 4 pairs from episode 1 - they know at least one of these is still a match. Also guaranteed not to be a winning combination. Getting 1 or 2 correct here is probably much more useful than getting 3, 4, 5, or 6 right.

3 correct means 14,129 combinations remain.

AlecAustinChuckConnorDevinHunterMikeNelsonTylerZak
Amanda6.5%20.0%10.9%6.5%14.0%6.4%X11.7%11.7%12.4%
Britni1.5%5.8%5.1%1.9%6.6%62.2%6.0%5.4%5.4%X
ChelseyX6.4%5.9%54.9%7.2%2.2%7.0%6.2%6.2%4.1%
Cheyenne6.4%12.2%10.9%6.4%14.0%6.3%12.9%X18.3%12.5%
Hannah7.1%13.3%X7.1%15.0%7.2%13.6%12.5%12.5%11.7%
Kayla3.8%11.1%10.0%X12.8%3.2%8.8%10.4%10.4%29.7%
Kiki8.7%X29.3%8.7%XX19.0%17.2%17.2%X
Melanie6.6%12.5%11.3%6.6%X6.4%13.2%18.8%11.9%12.8%
Rashida6.2%12.0%10.6%6.2%22.9%6.1%12.4%11.3%X12.3%
Stacey53.3%6.7%6.1%1.9%7.5%X7.1%6.4%6.4%4.6%