Here I'll be keeping track of the possible remaining perfect match combinations (with the help of a computer), and looking into the potential strategy of playing this game. The math work here will be independent of the romance and excitement that comes with the pairings. Unless noted otherwise, assume the probabilities of a matchup here being successful are random, ignoring chemistry and all the parts of the show that are actually fun.
Prize and Probability of Winning
All 20 winners will split a 30-year annuity that will pay out $1,000,000. That means if they elect to take the present day "lump sum," they'll end up with around $25,000 each (in addition to a shot at finding their perfect match and getting some weekly face time on MTV).The number of possible permutations in the original game is 10 factorial = 10! = 10 * 9 * 8 * 7 * 6 * 5 * 4 * 3 * 2 * 1 = 3,628,800. Put simply, a random guess would have a 1 in 3,628,800 chance of winning (0.00002756%). The calculations done here throughout the season evaluate all of those 3,628,800 possibilities against the information that's been shared through truth booths and matchup ceremonies to figure out the set of perfect matches. The easy way of saying it: I use a computer program to do a process of elimination in seconds.
The show has multiple challenges where additional information is provided, reducing the number of possible combinations. The contestants only have 10 episodes to find the perfect match, so they'll need to reduce it quickly to have a chance.
Live Blog
10:00: I'm back tonight with a live blog, despite the sour taste from last season's pretty clear indication that AYTO is rigged. 84% of readers agree - even if the cast members had the ability to go through all of the possible permutations, they would have only had a 1 in 4 chance of getting it right.10:05: The first truth booth will add $250,000 to the final prize. The odds of any pairing right off the bat is 1 in 10.
10:08: This season's twist is adding the foreign guy? Israeli with the fake Italian accent?
10:15: 6 years without dating? How old is this guy?
10:27: A lot of these people believe in horoscopes. Is that still a thing?
Truth Booth
10:32: Tori and Prosper to the Truth Booth, over Kaylen-Stephen and Alyssa-Tyler.
No match, leaving 3,265,920 combinations. They're all surprised to see this outcome which had a 90% chance of happening.
| Asaf | Cam | Cameron | Giovanni | John | Morgan | Prosper | Sam | Stephen | Tyler | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alyssa | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.9% |
| Camille | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.9% |
| Emma | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.9% |
| Francesca | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.9% |
| Julia | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.9% |
| Kaylen | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.9% |
| Mikala | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.9% |
| Nicole | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.9% |
| Tori | 11.1% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 11.1% | X | 11.1% | 11.1% | 11.1% |
| Victoria | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.9% |
Matchup Ceremony
10:44: The blackout rule is back this season - get no lights other than truth booths, and the prize goes down by $250,000. The chance of this first matchup ceremony resulting in a blackout is...
Blackout odds: 36.3% (1,186,632 possible blackout combinations out of 3,265,920)
Instant win possible: Yes
Most likely number of lights: 1
10:55: Cameron, Cam, and Sam makes it very hard to follow the results just by listening...
- Kaylen - Giovanni
- Victoria - Cam
- Francesca - Asaf
- Emma - John
- Camille - Prosper
- Alyssa - Sam
- Mikala - Cameron
- Julia - Morgan
- Nicole - Stephen
- Tori - Tyler
| Asaf | Cam | Cameron | Giovanni | John | Morgan | Prosper | Sam | Stephen | Tyler | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alyssa | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 29.4% | 7.8% | 7.5% |
| Camille | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 32.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.2% |
| Emma | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 29.4% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.5% |
| Francesca | 29.4% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.5% |
| Julia | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 29.4% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.5% |
| Kaylen | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 29.4% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.5% |
| Mikala | 7.8% | 7.8% | 29.4% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.5% |
| Nicole | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 29.4% | 7.5% |
| Tori | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.4% | X | 8.4% | 8.4% | 32.5% |
| Victoria | 7.8% | 29.4% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.5% |
