Season 5, Episode 10 Probabilities - Live Blog - The Matches Are In!

9:01: Season finale!

As a quick reminder, here are your perfect matches so far:

• Kam - Eddie (Week 5 truth booth)
• Carolina - Hayden (Week 8 truth booth)
• Alicia - Mike (Week 8 matchup ceremony)
• Gianna - Ozzy (Week 8 matchup ceremony)
• Kari - Michael (Week 8 matchup ceremony)
• Kathryn - Andre (Week 9 matchup ceremony)
• Taylor - Osvaldo (Week 9 matchup ceremony)
• Tyranny - Jaylan (Week 9 matchup ceremony)

We're hoping one of these six couples go to the Truth Booth:

• Casandra - Derrick
• Casandra - Tyler
• Hannah - Tyler
• Hannah - Joey
• Shannon - Joey
• Shannon - Derrick

9:03: Derrick also shares with us that he knows this exact information. So that means they've managed to figure out the same information as running the possibilities through a computer program. Could you have figured that all out without this blog? (I couldn't - but it's definitely possible!) If they send one of those couples to the Truth Booth, they know the answer. It seems really likely that this house will pull off a win.

9:06: Kathryn and Ozzy going at it. Even though they know their perfect matches are someone else.

9:10: Good to see some people questioning how they got to the conclusion. Wish they would have shown us a fast-forward version of them trying to figure it out!

Truth Booth

9:16: It's Joey and Casandra going to the Truth Booth, and Derrick and Tyranny going on the date but ineligible for the truth booth. So with the house knowing what we know... they have a 50-50 shot at it.

9:25: They have to be hoping for a trade at this point.

9:28: Trade offer is out! Derrick pushing the team to take the offer.

9:29: What we can infer from what's been shown... Derrick has come to the right conclusion somehow, but hasn't done a good enough job showing his work to the rest of the group, especially the women.

9:32: Trade accepted! The prize goes up another $150,000 to $800,000.

Matchup Ceremony

9:39: Why is Michael so sweaty?

9:41: Ryan skeptical about Mike and Alicia. Mike sounds like a cover letter when he's talking about Alicia.

9:48: Kathryn thinks Andre is her perfect match... because of the way he treats Taylor? Not a lot of faith in the process. The team is dedicated to the numbers.

• Michael - Kari (inferred perfect match, repeat from episodes 4, 5, 6, and 9)
• Ozzy - Gianna (inferred perfect match, repeat from episodes 1, 3, and 9)
• Mike - Alicia (inferred perfect match, repeat from episodes 3, 5, 6, and 9)
• Joey - Hannah (repeat from episode 9)
• Osvaldo - Taylor (inferred perfect match, repeat from episodes 4, 7, 8, and 9)
• Jaylan - Tyranny (inferred perfect match, repeat from episodes 4, 7, 8, and 9)
• Tyler - Casandra
• Andre - Kathryn (inferred perfect match, repeat from episode 9)
• Derrick - Shannon (repeat from episode 8)

9:49: It comes down to this. If they're right... 11 beams. If they're wrong, 8 beams.

9:52: Not very lucky for the show to already be going to beams this early...

9:56: And... they LOSE! This house was sacrificed at the altar for the luck of previous seasons. Here are your confirmed perfect matches:

• Kam - Eddie (Week 5 truth booth)
• Carolina - Hayden (Week 8 truth booth)
• Alicia - Mike (Week 8 matchup ceremony)
• Gianna - Ozzy (Week 8 matchup ceremony)
• Kari - Michael (Week 8 matchup ceremony)
• Kathryn - Andre (Week 9 matchup ceremony)
• Taylor - Osvaldo (Week 9 matchup ceremony)
• Tyranny - Jaylan (Week 9 matchup ceremony)
• Casandra - Derrick (Week 10 matchup ceremony)
• Hannah - Tyler (Week 10 matchup ceremony)
• Shannon - Joey (Week 10 matchup ceremony)

9:58: Shots being fired all across the stage. Guys mad at each other. Kari and Derrick taking it hard. Great final shot of a devastated Derrick. Let's go to the reunion.

10:00: In case you were curious - the spoilers that leaked earlier in the season turned out to be accurate. With those spoilers, we were able to figure out the perfect matches after week 8.

10:02: Derrick still feels the strategy worked. About half of the house agrees with him.

10:09: Feels like the women's outfits looked better on the island than tonight at the reunion.

10:12: If Shannon had chosen Derrick Week 9... and Hannah picked Joey, Casandra and Tyler - they would have had 8 beams and known the 11 perfect matches.

10:16: Tyranny and Alicia escalating quickly and then exploding.

10:18: Alicia is with Eddie after the season, and Kam is with Gio from a previous season.

10:50: Gianna has an "appreciation ring" from Hayden.

Season 5, Episode 9 Probabilities - Live Blog

Lots of action last week - three perfect matches and four combinations left, so make sure you're caught up! (The spoiler track with unconfirmed info from AYTO Second Chances is not incorporated here.)

9:03: Interesting twist - the house does not remember which weeks Hayden sat with Carolina.

9:04: Michael doesn't care about strategy, but Derrick and the others think they've figured out the couple from week 1.

9:06: Casandra wants to be with Joey (not a match), but Derrick thinks Tyler (25%) is her better match.

9:07: The Derrick - Michael fight turns out to be about Kathryn, not strategy. Security steps in!

9:14: Lots of no matches interested in each other: Alicia and Ozzy, Shannon and Tyler...

9:15: Casandra and Tyranny win dates. It's Casandra and Mike (who the house knows is not a match) and Tyranny and Derrick. Both are no matches! The Truth Booth won't help them.

9:19: Hannah thinks she and Joey (25%) might be a perfect match.

9:26: Seems like the next episode might be dead men walking... they might have no clue whatsoever.

Truth Booth

9:28: It's Derrick and Tyranny. Ryan offers the house the $150,000 trade. Of course, this is a great deal! It's the same 4 combinations left either way:

1. Casandra - Derrick, Hannah - Tyler, Kathryn - Andre, Shannon - Joey, Taylor - Osvaldo, Tyranny - Jaylan
2. Casandra - Tyler, Hannah - Joey, Kathryn - Andre, Shannon - Derrick, Taylor - Osvaldo, Tyranny - Jaylan
3. Casandra - Andre, Hannah - Tyler, Kathryn - Jaylan, Shannon - Derrick, Taylor - Osvaldo, Tyranny - Joey
4. Casandra - Andre, Hannah - Tyler, Kathryn - Osvaldo, Shannon - Derrick, Taylor - Joey, Tyranny - Jaylan

9:29: This seems to be the first time there's been some real debate over the trade.

9:34: The house takes the trade and the prize is up to $650,000. Kathryn is right - people are pretty excited about the $150,000, but it only shows up if they win. Derrick and Tyranny staying together til the end is an easy way not to win anything.

Matchup Ceremony

9:42: Eddie says he would have definitely opposed the trade.

9:44: The couples starting to come together...

9:45: ... nope. Shannon goes rogue and the crowd is SILENT... except for Derrick!

9:52: Derrick mad about the intentional miscommunication, not the choice.

• Kari - Michael (inferred perfect match, repeat from episodes 4-6)
• Alicia - Mike (inferred perfect match, repeat from episodes 3, 5, and 6)
• Ozzy - Gianna (inferred perfect match, repeat from episodes 1 and 3)
• Tyranny - Jaylan (repeat from episodes 4, 7, and 8)
• Shannon - Tyler (inferred no match, repeat from episodes 3-7)
• Hannah - Joey
• Casandra - Derrick
• Taylor - Osvaldo (repeat from episodes 4, 7, and 8)
• Kathryn - Andre

Blackout odds: 0% (0 of 4)
Instant win possible: No
Maximum number of lights: 9
Most likely number of lights: 6

9:59: 6 lights means there are two possibilities left, and 9 lights means there are two possibilities left. We won't know the matches tonight.

10:00: It's 9 beams of light, which means there's a single set of couples that need to switch. Will they know who? Your new perfect matches this week are Kathryn and Andre, Taylor and Osvaldo, and Tyranny and Jaylan.

	Andre	Derrick	Edward	Hayden	Jaylan	Joey	Michael	Mike	Osvaldo	Ozzy	Tyler
Alicia	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X
Carolina	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Casandra	X	50.0%	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	50.0%
Gianna	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X
Hannah	X	X	X	X	X	50.0%	X	X	X	X	50.0%
Kam	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Kari	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X
Kathryn	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Shannon	X	50.0%	X	X	X	50.0%	X	X	X	X	X
Taylor	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X
Tyranny	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X

1. Casandra - Derrick, Hannah - Tyler, Shannon - Joey
2. Casandra - Tyler, Hannah - Joey, Shannon - Derrick

10:00: We now know that if Shannon had gone with Derrick, as the house had agreed on, and Tyler matched up with Casandra, there was a 50% chance they'd know the right answer.

10:01: Will they figure it out next week? Come back and see. Thank you to the thousands of readers of this blog!!

10:16: The AfterMatch is showing a hookup web and Derrick is OFF the web. He's now claiming that he fooled around with 8 of the 11 women.

Season 5, Episode 8 Probabilities - with spinoff assistance - The Matches Are In!

Tonight, MTV confirmed that there will be a spinoff called Are You The One: Second Chances. There are reports (original) that six of this season's cast members will be in that spinoff. The commercial tonight showed that two of those cast members are together as a perfect match!

See the original episode 8 post if you do not want to be spoiled by this info. (I will go back and add in prior episode information later.)

Season 5, Episode 8 Probabilities - Live Blog

9:07: The challenge this week is ex-boyfriends showing up. It's like a bizarro house.

9:10: Gianna calling Carolina out? Really?

9:12: Michael was totally right - the more good looking guys were the fake exes. And one of the guys is a miniature Ozzy!

9:13: Hayden is going on the date, and he'll be joined by one of Michael, Jaylan, Derrick, and Ozzy.

9:17: Hayden brings Carolina (6.0%), and Michael brings Kathryn (inferred no match).

9:19: Joey sets up a Froot Loops date with Casandra.

9:22: Gianna sooo mad at Carolina. Can't handle it!

9:24: SPOILER ALERT! AYTO Second Chances showing off one of the perfect matches from this season.

Truth Booth

9:31: It's Hayden and Carolina to the Truth Booth.

9:35: PERFECT MATCH! As spoiled ten minutes ago in a commercial for AYTO Second Chances. 46 possibilities left.

	Andre	Derrick	Edward	Hayden	Jaylan	Joey	Michael	Mike	Osvaldo	Ozzy	Tyler
Alicia	X	X	X	X	23.9%	8.7%	X	32.6%	23.9%	X	10.9%
Carolina	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Casandra	50.0%	30.4%	X	X	X	4.3%	4.3%	X	4.3%	X	6.5%
Gianna	X	10.9%	X	X	4.3%	2.2%	X	X	X	82.6%	X
Hannah	X	6.5%	X	X	X	17.4%	X	23.9%	28.3%	X	23.9%
Kam	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Kari	X	X	X	X	4.3%	X	89.1%	2.2%	X	4.3%	X
Kathryn	21.7%	X	X	X	10.9%	43.5%	X	4.3%	10.9%	X	8.7%
Shannon	15.2%	17.4%	X	X	8.7%	6.5%	2.2%	4.3%	4.3%	6.5%	34.8%
Taylor	X	34.8%	X	X	4.3%	6.5%	X	8.7%	28.3%	2.2%	15.2%
Tyranny	13.0%	X	X	X	43.5%	10.9%	4.3%	23.9%	X	4.3%	X

9:36: Alicia happy... but others getting salty.

9:42: The Honeymoon Suite is pretty nice. How many Honeymoon Suites do they roll out every season? Can't be more than 4...

Matchup Ceremony

9:47: Ryan Devlin dropping F Bombs!!

• Derrick - Shannon
• Mike - Kari
• Andre - Gianna (inferred no match)
• Tyler - Hannah
• Osvaldo - Taylor (repeat from episodes 4 and 7)
• Ozzy - Alicia (repeat from episode 7)
• Jaylan - Tyranny (repeat from episodes 4 and 7)
• Joey - Casandra
• Michael - Kathryn (inferred no match)

Blackout odds: 26.0% (12 of 46)
Instant win possible: No
Maximum number of lights: 8
Most likely number of lights: 4

9:58: 5 beams means just 4 possibilities remain... but we have THREE inferred perfect matches: Alicia and Mike, Gianna and Ozzy, Kari and Michael!

	Andre	Derrick	Edward	Hayden	Jaylan	Joey	Michael	Mike	Osvaldo	Ozzy	Tyler
Alicia	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X
Carolina	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Casandra	50.0%	25.0%	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	25.0%
Gianna	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X
Hannah	X	X	X	X	X	25.0%	X	X	X	X	75.0%
Kam	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Kari	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X
Kathryn	50.0%	X	X	X	25.0%	X	X	X	25.0%	X	X
Shannon	X	75.0%	X	X	X	25.0%	X	X	X	X	X
Taylor	X	X	X	X	X	25.0%	X	X	75.0%	X	X
Tyranny	X	X	X	X	75.0%	25.0%	X	X	X	X	X

1. Casandra - Derrick, Hannah - Tyler, Kathryn - Andre, Shannon - Joey, Taylor - Osvaldo, Tyranny - Jaylan
2. Casandra - Tyler, Hannah - Joey, Kathryn - Andre, Shannon - Derrick, Taylor - Osvaldo, Tyranny - Jaylan
3. Casandra - Andre, Hannah - Tyler, Kathryn - Jaylan, Shannon - Derrick, Taylor - Osvaldo, Tyranny - Joey
4. Casandra - Andre, Hannah - Tyler, Kathryn - Osvaldo, Shannon - Derrick, Taylor - Joey, Tyranny - Jaylan

10:01: Casting information about the AYTO spinoff has revealed the perfect matches for this season - check it out in my other blog post here.

Season 5, Episode 7 Probabilities - with spinoff assistance

There are reports (original) that an Are You The One? spinoff is occurring with six of this season's cast members. I have not seen any official indication from MTV about this show or these cast members being together. This post will keep track of known combinations given the assumption that there are three pairs of perfect matches within those six contestants. These possible perfect matches are still possible through episode 7.

See the original episode 7 post if you do not want to be spoiled by this info. (I will go back and add in prior episode information later.)

Season 5, Episode 7 Probabilities

No live blog tonight.

Truth Booth

Andre and Taylor went into the Truth Booth. We've known since Episode 5 that they weren't a perfect match. No progress!

They were offered the Truth Booth trade, but declined it. Obviously, it would have been a better deal to take the trade.

Matchup Ceremony

• Casandra - Andre (repeat from episode 4)
• Alicia - Ozzy
• Shannon - Tyler (repeat from episodes 3-6)
• Taylor - Osvaldo (repeat from episode 4)
• Kari - Derrick
• Kathryn - Joey (repeat from episodes 3-6)
• Tyranny - Jaylan (repeat from episode 4)
• Hannah - Michael (repeat from episode 1)
• Gianna - Mike
• Carolina - Hayden (repeat from episodes 3-6)

Blackout odds: 0% (0 of 165)
Instant win possible: No, repeated more than 4 couples from episode 4
Maximum number of lights: 8
Most likely number of lights: 4

4 beams means 84 combinations remain.

	Andre	Derrick	Edward	Hayden	Jaylan	Joey	Michael	Mike	Osvaldo	Ozzy	Tyler
Alicia	X	X	X	6.0%	22.6%	4.8%	X	40.5%	20.2%	X	6.0%
Carolina	10.7%	16.7%	X	54.8%	7.1%	X	X	2.4%	4.8%	X	3.6%
Casandra	52.4%	26.2%	X	6.0%	X	3.6%	2.4%	X	3.6%	X	6.0%
Gianna	X	6.0%	X	X	3.6%	1.2%	X	X	X	86.9%	2.4%
Hannah	X	7.1%	X	15.5%	X	14.3%	X	22.6%	22.6%	X	17.9%
Kam	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Kari	X	X	X	X	2.4%	X	94.0%	1.2%	X	2.4%	X
Kathryn	14.3%	X	X	3.6%	8.3%	59.5%	X	2.4%	7.1%	X	4.8%
Shannon	11.9%	13.1%	X	3.6%	6.0%	3.6%	1.2%	2.4%	3.6%	3.6%	51.2%
Taylor	X	31.0%	X	X	6.0%	6.0%	X	8.3%	38.1%	2.4%	8.3%
Tyranny	10.7%	X	X	10.7%	44.0%	7.1%	2.4%	20.2%	X	4.8%	X

Read more for all 84 possibilities...

Season 5, Episode 6 Probabilities - Live Blog

9:01 N: Kam seems like she is being fake nice to Edward.

9:02 A: Our first sights of the Dominican honeymoon suite.

9:03 N: "Fit together right"

9:05 A: Tyler trying to make himself the villain of the show... and Gianna is freaking out.

9:07 A: Dirt time... Tyler hooked up with like 3 girls in a row?

9:11 N: Gianna is sooooooo territorial.

9:12 N: Michael said he was playing Pokemon up until 12 years old as if it's a bad thing...

9:15 A: Carolina answers three questions in a row... but is out. Hannah takes Ozzy (25.6%) and Shannon brings Tyler (57.1%) on the date. Two strong matchups.

9:19 A: Andre and Taylor definitely enjoying each others' company... but readers here know that they're actually not a match. Troublesome!

9:17 N: Casandra and Joey are adorable and their first argument is over area codes.

9:20 N: How will Tyler react in a truth booth? Will he have that same dumb look?

9:27 A: They go from at each others' throats to kissing and wanting to figure things out?

Truth Booth

9:31 A: Shannon is right that this is the biggest Truth Booth of the season!

9:36 A: It's Hannah and Ozzy!

9:37 A: No match! 232 combinations left.

	Andre	Derrick	Edward	Hayden	Jaylan	Joey	Michael	Mike	Osvaldo	Ozzy	Tyler
Alicia	X	X	X	5.2%	12.1%	5.2%	12.1%	37.5%	13.8%	9.1%	5.2%
Carolina	8.2%	9.1%	X	68.1%	3.9%	X	2.2%	3.0%	3.4%	X	2.2%
Casandra	46.6%	16.8%	X	3.4%	10.3%	2.2%	2.6%	X	5.6%	8.2%	4.3%
Gianna	9.1%	26.3%	X	X	5.6%	3.0%	X	3.9%	3.9%	44.4%	3.9%
Hannah	X	8.6%	X	7.3%	10.3%	7.3%	26.3%	20.7%	11.2%	X	8.2%
Kam	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Kari	X	6.0%	X	4.7%	9.9%	4.3%	44.4%	7.8%	X	17.2%	5.6%
Kathryn	10.3%	2.2%	X	1.7%	4.7%	67.7%	2.6%	3.0%	5.6%	X	2.2%
Shannon	9.1%	7.8%	X	2.2%	4.3%	1.3%	2.6%	3.9%	4.3%	3.0%	61.6%
Taylor	X	16.8%	X	X	5.6%	3.4%	1.7%	6.5%	52.2%	6.9%	6.9%
Tyranny	16.8%	6.5%	X	7.3%	33.2%	5.6%	5.6%	13.8%	X	11.2%	X

9:38 A: Kari advocating for Cass and Ozzy to pair together and Hannah and Jaylan to pair together, effectively turning the matchup ceremony into a Casandra - Jaylan (10.3%) truth booth, as they are a repeat from episode 1. Not sure that's worth it...

9:39 N: And it's the second confirmed "no match" spending time in the boom boom room!

9:43 A: Alicia once again moving in quickly. Tyranny and Hannah are out on her.

Matchup Ceremony

• Joey - Kathryn (repeat from episodes 3, 4, and 5)
• Andre - Taylor (repeat from episode 5)
• Michael - Kari (repeat from episodes 4 and 5)
• Tyler - Shannon (repeat from episodes 3, 4, and 5)
• Mike - Alicia (repeat from episodes 3 and 5)
• Tyranny - Derrick (repeat from episode 5)
• Carolina - Hayden (repeat from episodes 3, 4, and 5)
• Gianna - Osvaldo (repeat from episode 5)
• Jaylan - Hannah
• Casandra - Ozzy

Blackout odds: 0% (0 of 232)
Instant win possible: No, did not repeat two matches from episode 1.
Maximum number of lights: 5
Most likely number of lights: 4

9:57 A: Because they followed Kari's strategy, 3 beams means that Casandra and Jaylan are a perfect match. 4 means all of Casandra - Jaylan, Casandra - Ozzy, and Hannah - Jaylan are no matches. 5 means one of Casandra - Ozzy or Hannah - Jaylan are a perfect match. The data indicates that it's not possible for both of those couples to be a perfect match. There are no other beam combinations.

10:01 A: It's 4 beams of light, meaning all three couples are inferred no matches. Ryan is blunt: the house is failing. They only go down to 165 possibilities.

	Andre	Derrick	Edward	Hayden	Jaylan	Joey	Michael	Mike	Osvaldo	Ozzy	Tyler
Alicia	X	X	X	4.2%	15.8%	4.2%	5.5%	43.0%	14.5%	8.5%	4.2%
Carolina	6.7%	10.9%	X	67.9%	4.8%	X	1.8%	1.8%	4.2%	X	1.8%
Casandra	57.0%	18.8%	X	4.8%	X	3.0%	3.0%	X	7.3%	X	6.1%
Gianna	7.3%	16.4%	X	X	7.9%	3.0%	X	4.2%	5.5%	51.5%	4.2%
Hannah	X	9.7%	X	9.1%	X	9.1%	29.1%	18.2%	14.5%	X	10.3%
Kam	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Kari	X	5.5%	X	3.0%	12.1%	3.0%	50.9%	7.3%	X	14.5%	3.6%
Kathryn	9.7%	2.4%	X	1.8%	6.1%	66.1%	2.4%	1.8%	7.3%	X	2.4%
Shannon	8.5%	9.1%	X	1.8%	5.5%	1.8%	2.4%	3.0%	4.8%	3.6%	59.4%
Taylor	X	20.0%	X	X	7.3%	4.8%	2.4%	7.3%	41.8%	8.5%	7.9%
Tyranny	10.9%	7.3%	X	7.3%	40.6%	4.8%	2.4%	13.3%	X	13.3%	X

10:04 A: Andre eating cold fish sticks and tartar sauce on the AfterMatch. Yuck.

Season 5, Episode 5 Probabilities - Live Blog

9:02: Product placement!!

9:03: Andre is feeding Taylor what she wants, and she's eating it up. He's good!

9:04: Eddie and Alicia always look like they are having fun.

9:06: Gotta give credit to the producers of this show and Ryan Devlin - they NEVER repeat challenges! It's always something new.

9:09: Back-to-back questions are... have you ever taken a photo of your own poop, and are you capable of opening up emotionally to a woman in the house?

9:15: Girls win the challenge, so it's Kam and Eddie (46%) and Kari and Mike (19.6%).

9:18: Jaylan goes OFF about an eaten chicken wing. Casandra calling Jaylan a funny... dad?

9:19: The closet is the new hot spot?

9:21: Gianna loves the two unattainable guys - Michael and Hayden. Hayden looks really happy going to sleep though.

Truth Booth

9:29: No surprise... it's Kam and Eddie heading to the Truth Booth.

9:32: Perfect match! Our first of the season, leaving 951 possibilities.

	Andre	Derrick	Edward	Hayden	Jaylan	Joey	Michael	Mike	Osvaldo	Ozzy	Tyler
Alicia	X	X	X	8.3%	9.5%	8.2%	12.7%	25.7%	16.0%	10.1%	9.6%
Carolina	6.0%	5.9%	X	68.1%	2.9%	X	4.1%	5.7%	4.6%	X	2.6%
Casandra	37.6%	7.8%	X	3.2%	26.4%	3.3%	4.6%	X	6.7%	6.8%	3.6%
Gianna	9.6%	31.7%	X	X	4.8%	4.9%	X	6.6%	8.0%	29.7%	4.7%
Hannah	X	11.8%	X	5.0%	6.6%	5.7%	13.6%	12.6%	10.1%	28.8%	5.8%
Kam	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Kari	11.3%	9.7%	X	4.5%	4.8%	4.6%	39.0%	14.3%	X	6.2%	5.6%
Kathryn	7.6%	6.7%	X	2.4%	3.6%	60.3%	4.4%	6.4%	5.4%	X	3.3%
Shannon	6.6%	6.0%	X	2.0%	4.0%	2.6%	5.0%	6.3%	6.0%	3.9%	57.5%
Taylor	8.7%	8.1%	X	X	3.6%	4.2%	9.4%	9.8%	43.2%	5.7%	7.4%
Tyranny	12.6%	12.4%	X	6.4%	33.8%	6.2%	7.2%	12.6%	X	8.8%	X

9:33: Alicia, Eddie, and Kam all from Jersey.

9:35: Michael making a lot of sense right now.

9:35: The tree house??

9:36: First extended night vision scene... Eddie and Alicia sneak off to bang!!

9:40: Apparently Alicia snuck off and "kissed" Eddie. Bring back the lie detector!!

Matchup Ceremony

9:45: Andre and Derrick getting up.

9:47: OK, the chicken bone and the couch lie detector bit with Gianna and Jaylan was legit funny. Except the ordering of the timing wasn't quite right... bad editing?

• Hannah - Ozzy (repeat from episode 4)
• Carolina - Hayden (repeat from episodes 3 and 4)
• Alicia - Mike (repeat from episode 3)
• Tyranny - Derrick
• Taylor - Andre
• Casandra - Jaylan (repeat from episodes 1 and 3)
• Kari - Michael (repeat from episode 4)
• Kathryn - Joey (repeat from episodes 3 and 4)
• Gianna - Osvaldo
• Shannon - Tyler (repeat from episodes 3 and 4)

Blackout odds: 0% (0 of 951)
Instant win possible: No, repeated more than four of the couples from episodes 3 and 4.
Maximum number of lights: 9
Most likely number of lights: 4

9:56: As it turns out, they repeated enough couples that there was no chance of a blackout. That probably means they weren't taking enough risks tonight.

4 more lights means 312 combinations remain. An interesting twist... Andre and Taylor sat together tonight but are our first inferred no match. That means none of the combinations remaining that match all the rules of the first five Truth Booths and Matchup Ceremonies have Andre and Taylor together.

	Andre	Derrick	Edward	Hayden	Jaylan	Joey	Michael	Mike	Osvaldo	Ozzy	Tyler
Alicia	X	X	X	6.1%	12.5%	6.7%	12.2%	33.7%	15.4%	6.7%	6.7%
Carolina	6.7%	8.0%	X	67.0%	3.8%	X	3.8%	3.8%	4.2%	X	2.6%
Casandra	37.2%	15.1%	X	4.5%	14.1%	3.8%	5.4%	X	9.0%	6.1%	4.8%
Gianna	9.0%	33.7%	X	X	5.4%	5.1%	X	5.8%	2.9%	33.0%	5.1%
Hannah	X	6.4%	X	5.4%	7.7%	5.4%	19.6%	15.4%	8.3%	25.6%	6.1%
Kam	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Kari	16.3%	4.8%	X	3.8%	8.0%	3.8%	33.0%	12.5%	X	12.8%	4.8%
Kathryn	8.3%	7.7%	X	2.2%	4.2%	61.9%	3.8%	3.5%	5.4%	X	2.9%
Shannon	7.1%	7.1%	X	3.2%	4.5%	2.9%	5.1%	5.1%	5.8%	2.2%	57.1%
Taylor	X	12.5%	X	X	4.2%	3.2%	10.6%	5.4%	49.0%	5.1%	9.9%
Tyranny	15.4%	4.8%	X	7.7%	35.6%	7.1%	6.4%	14.7%	X	8.3%	X

Season 5, Episode 4 Probabilities - Live Blog

Big push by the house last week to get 4 beams... what's up for them next?

9:05: Gianna not willing to let Hayden up for Carolina.

9:08: This week's challenge is to get dizzy, and then shoot hoops. Third make gets a date!

Jaylan is going after Casandra (40.3%), Ozzy after Hannah (7.1%), Mike after Alicia (34.1%), Osvaldo and Tyranny (40.6%), Kam and Eddie (40.5%). It's Osvaldo and Tyranny making the first date. Both Joey (30.9%) and Derrick (6.2%) going after Kathryn, looks like Kathryn will be going on this date.

9:13: Joey beats out Division I basketball player Derrick for the date!

9:15: Tyranny celebrates winning the trapeze date by making jungle juice for everyone.

9:19: Tyranny on a 7 month dry spell... aaand it's over.

9:24: Shannon, Tyler, and Taylor... Alicia, Kam, and Eddie... lots of triangles going on.

Truth Booth

9:28: Osvaldo and Tyranny going to the Truth Booth... lots of very high expectations. No mention of a trade, but let's do the math anyway.

Estimated value of forfeiting truth booth for $150,000: $56.32
Estimated value of going to the truth booth: $83.68
Estimated value of losing the truth booth: $72.93
It's worth trading the truth booth for approximately: $465,862

9:33: No match... and it's really, incredibly sad. It's been hard to remember a happier couple going into the Truth Booth. Tyranny might be more devastated than any housemate in AYTO history. 48,025 combinations remain.

	Andre	Derrick	Edward	Hayden	Jaylan	Joey	Michael	Mike	Osvaldo	Ozzy	Tyler
Alicia	X	X	6.3%	8.4%	5.9%	8.1%	8.1%	35.4%	13.1%	5.8%	9.0%
Carolina	7.9%	7.7%	5.7%	37.7%	5.6%	X	7.5%	7.2%	12.1%	X	8.7%
Casandra	6.0%	5.5%	3.0%	5.4%	50.7%	5.8%	5.5%	X	9.1%	2.9%	6.2%
Gianna	5.6%	5.0%	2.8%	X	2.7%	5.3%	X	4.5%	8.7%	59.8%	5.5%
Hannah	X	32.4%	5.6%	7.9%	5.4%	7.8%	7.5%	7.4%	12.2%	5.1%	8.5%
Kam	5.9%	5.3%	50.9%	5.2%	X	5.6%	5.2%	4.7%	8.8%	2.6%	5.8%
Kari	37.4%	7.9%	5.4%	7.9%	5.1%	7.6%	7.6%	7.7%	X	4.8%	8.5%
Kathryn	7.9%	8.0%	5.2%	7.6%	4.9%	32.2%	7.4%	7.0%	11.5%	X	8.2%
Shannon	7.9%	7.6%	X	7.7%	5.2%	7.6%	7.8%	7.2%	12.0%	4.9%	32.1%
Taylor	8.3%	8.3%	5.8%	X	5.6%	7.9%	31.4%	7.6%	12.4%	5.2%	7.6%
Tyranny	13.1%	12.2%	9.3%	12.3%	9.0%	12.0%	12.0%	11.3%	X	8.8%	X

9:34: Osvaldo hits the punching bag and Tyranny just sits in bed sobbing. This feels like the hardest miss we've ever seen.

9:36: Tyler can't make up his mind... getting torn between Shannon and Taylor. Why not explore both?

9:52: Tyler brings up a good point in that the normal block-an-ex strategy doesn't work in the AYTO house.

Matchup Ceremony

• Mike - Kam
• Ozzy - Hannah
• Osvaldo - Taylor
• Andre - Casandra
• Edward - Alicia
• Joey - Kathryn (repeat from episode 3)
• Derrick - Gianna
• Tyler - Shannon (repeat from episode 3)
• Michael - Kari
• Hayden - Carolina (repeat from episode 3)
• Jaylan - Tyranny

Blackout odds: 15.4% (7,386 out of 48,025)
Instant win possible: No, did not repeat two matches from episode 1.
Maximum number of lights: 8
Most likely number of lights: 1

4 beams! 2,067 possibilities left.

	Andre	Derrick	Edward	Hayden	Jaylan	Joey	Michael	Mike	Osvaldo	Ozzy	Tyler
Alicia	X	X	25.4%	6.0%	6.4%	6.2%	9.9%	20.3%	13.1%	6.3%	6.4%
Carolina	5.6%	5.0%	2.1%	70.8%	2.3%	X	3.3%	3.8%	4.8%	X	2.2%
Casandra	25.7%	6.4%	2.9%	2.5%	43.0%	2.9%	4.3%	X	6.3%	3.2%	2.7%
Gianna	7.2%	21.6%	1.9%	X	2.2%	3.7%	X	4.3%	6.3%	49.8%	3.1%
Hannah	X	16.2%	5.0%	4.2%	5.3%	5.5%	19.2%	9.2%	11.5%	19.4%	4.6%
Kam	7.5%	6.1%	46.0%	2.8%	X	3.5%	4.7%	16.2%	7.4%	2.8%	3.1%
Kari	18.4%	8.3%	3.9%	3.3%	4.0%	4.0%	30.3%	19.6%	X	4.2%	4.0%
Kathryn	6.7%	10.0%	2.1%	1.7%	2.6%	61.8%	3.6%	4.3%	5.1%	X	2.1%
Shannon	6.4%	5.4%	X	2.7%	2.9%	1.9%	4.4%	4.7%	6.8%	2.9%	62.0%
Taylor	8.9%	8.4%	4.0%	X	3.1%	4.2%	11.8%	7.4%	38.7%	4.0%	9.7%
Tyranny	13.7%	12.6%	6.8%	6.0%	28.2%	6.3%	8.5%	10.4%	X	7.5%	X

Season 5, Episode 3 Probabilities - Live Blog

9:02: Grief and shell shock. Who died? Several relationships and $500,000 of the prize.

9:06: They have to go fishing for dating profile words in the inter nets. One of the most interesting segments in history of the show!

9:10: How did they do this? Put the names on top after the couples pair up?

9:15: Up for the date are Hayden-Kathryn (8.8%), Joey-Kari (9.6%), and Ozzy-Carolina (9.4%). No great possibilities... a Truth Booth hit would be big, but it's probably worth giving up the Truth Booth this time around in exchange for the prize.

9:16: Some friction as Joey had been paired with Carolina and Ozzy had been paired with Kathryn earlier.

9:17: I always find it strange when someone in the house is upset about someone else moving on quickly. Don't they all enter the house super excited to find out they they're with a bunch of hot women/men?

9:28: Joey managing to sink both his date and Carolina's date with Ozzy!

Truth Booth

9:31: Ozzy and Carolina head to the Truth Booth... but Ryan once again offers the house the option to trade.

Estimated value of forfeiting truth booth for $150,000: $2.60
Estimated value of going to the truth booth: $2.41
Estimated value of losing the truth booth: $2.21
It's worth trading the truth booth for approximately: $102,647

Based on my loose math, I think it's worth making the trade here.

9:33: The house declines the trade! For love purposes, it's probably best not to make the trade even when the money comes close to break-even, because then the couple will sit together at every subsequent Truth Booth.

9:36: Are You The One? Fantasy League? Anyone here playing? Sound off in the comments...

9:37: No match! 1,808,808 possibilities remain.

	Andre	Derrick	Edward	Hayden	Jaylan	Joey	Michael	Mike	Osvaldo	Ozzy	Tyler
Alicia	X	X	10.7%	11.7%	10.7%	12.3%	10.8%	10.7%	10.7%	11.7%	10.7%
Carolina	13.6%	10.9%	10.6%	11.6%	10.6%	X	10.7%	10.6%	10.6%	X	10.6%
Casandra	10.7%	8.4%	8.1%	8.8%	21.2%	9.7%	8.1%	X	8.1%	8.8%	8.1%
Gianna	11.5%	8.8%	8.5%	X	8.5%	10.4%	X	8.5%	8.5%	26.6%	8.5%
Hannah	X	8.6%	8.3%	9.0%	8.4%	9.9%	21.7%	8.4%	8.4%	9.1%	8.3%
Kam	10.7%	8.4%	21.2%	8.8%	X	9.7%	8.1%	8.1%	8.1%	8.8%	8.1%
Kari	10.7%	8.4%	8.1%	8.8%	8.1%	9.7%	8.1%	21.2%	X	8.8%	8.1%
Kathryn	10.8%	21.7%	8.1%	8.8%	8.2%	9.7%	8.2%	8.2%	8.2%	X	8.1%
Shannon	10.5%	8.1%	X	23.7%	7.9%	9.5%	7.9%	7.9%	7.9%	8.6%	7.9%
Taylor	10.8%	8.4%	8.2%	X	8.2%	9.7%	8.2%	8.2%	8.2%	8.9%	21.4%
Tyranny	10.7%	8.4%	8.1%	8.8%	8.1%	9.7%	8.1%	8.1%	21.2%	8.8%	X

9:38: Kathryn pretty smug.

9:39: And now it's Joey and Kathryn! He's all over the place.

9:40: Tyranny ready for Osvaldo.

9:45: Are Kam and Eddie a #perfectmatch?

9:48: Tyler and Kari hooked up. Cue dramatic music!

9:53: Taylor devastated about Tyler's handjob from Kari!

9:54: Michael with a surprisingly mature statement about communicating better. Classy!

Matchup Ceremony

• Kathryn - Joey
• Tyranny - Osvaldo (repeat from episode 1)
• Hannah - Derrick
• Casandra - Jaylan (repeat from episode 1)
• Kam - Edward (repeat from episode 1)
• Shannon - Tyler
• Carolina - Hayden
• Gianna - Ozzy (repeat from episode 1)
• Alicia - Mike
• Taylor - Michael
• Kari - Andre

Blackout odds: 16.8% (304,145 out of 1,808,808)
Instant win possible: No, repeated more than two matchups from episode 1
Maximum number of lights: 9
Most likely number of lights: 1

Lots of repeats from episode 1. Decent strategy for avoiding a blackout, but not that helpful for whittling down possibilities.

Wow - 4 beams of light! Big win for the house, which gets down to 80,795 combinations left.

	Andre	Derrick	Edward	Hayden	Jaylan	Joey	Michael	Mike	Osvaldo	Ozzy	Tyler
Alicia	X	X	7.8%	9.1%	7.6%	8.4%	8.7%	34.1%	7.8%	7.7%	8.9%
Carolina	8.5%	8.2%	7.2%	37.2%	7.1%	X	8.1%	7.9%	7.2%	X	8.6%
Casandra	7.7%	7.2%	5.4%	7.3%	40.3%	7.1%	7.1%	X	5.4%	5.2%	7.3%
Gianna	7.8%	7.1%	5.3%	X	5.1%	7.0%	X	6.5%	5.2%	49.0%	7.1%
Hannah	X	31.8%	7.3%	8.7%	7.1%	8.2%	5.8%	8.2%	7.3%	7.1%	8.5%
Kam	7.6%	7.0%	40.5%	7.2%	X	7.0%	6.9%	6.5%	5.3%	5.0%	7.0%
Kari	34.1%	8.2%	6.7%	8.4%	6.5%	7.7%	8.0%	5.8%	X	6.4%	8.2%
Kathryn	8.8%	6.2%	6.9%	8.8%	6.7%	30.9%	8.4%	8.0%	6.9%	X	8.4%
Shannon	8.8%	8.4%	X	6.0%	7.1%	8.3%	8.7%	8.2%	7.1%	7.0%	30.2%
Taylor	8.9%	8.7%	7.4%	X	7.2%	8.2%	31.2%	8.2%	7.4%	7.2%	5.7%
Tyranny	7.8%	7.2%	5.5%	7.3%	5.4%	7.2%	7.1%	6.7%	40.6%	5.2%	X

Season 5, Episode 2 Probabilities - Live Blog

Welcome back Nicole for a guest blog!

9:03 N: Mike is getting very real right away

9:04 A: Seems like they didn't get their partying on enough during the first week, so the guys are getting the party started!

9:04 N: It's Ozzy's birthday tomorrow, I wonder if he gets the same birthday present that Mike got

9:05 N: MTV casting fail, people that don't want to party and act trashy? Tyler and Taylor, kind of feel like their names are too similar

9:07 N: Confessional boner!!!

9:07 A: Andre and Alicia headed to the Boom Boom Room... lots of chemistry going on

9:10 N: It's challenge time!

9:12 A: The guys are going to be tied to posts and the girls are going to tie them up and find them by smell.

9:13 N: Tyler looks SOOOO disappointed that Hannah (8.2%) liked his scent.

9:14 A: Alicia finds Andre (17.8%) because he smells like Fritos!

9:15 N: Kari studied neuroscience in college, clearly took notes... that's why she won this get away date with Joey (8.2%).

9:18 N: Shower show and tell time. Kam, you are looking.

Truth Booth

9:28 N: Not shocking that it's Andre and Alicia headed to the Truth Booth. These two are going to be DEVASTATED if they are not a match.

9:30 A: No offer this week to trade the truth booth for an extra $150,000 added to the prize. Let's run those numbers anyway...

Estimated value of forfeiting truth booth for $150,000: $1.54
Estimated value of going to the truth booth: $1.89
Estimated value of losing the truth booth: $1.62
It's worth trading the truth booth for approximately: $413,691

9:34 A: No match! Brings us down to 5,540,084 combinations remaining.

	Andre	Derrick	Edward	Hayden	Jaylan	Joey	Michael	Mike	Osvaldo	Ozzy	Tyler
Alicia	X	9.9%	9.9%	10.8%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.8%	9.9%
Carolina	9.9%	7.8%	7.8%	8.4%	7.8%	19.6%	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	7.6%	7.8%
Casandra	9.9%	7.8%	7.8%	8.4%	19.6%	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	7.6%	7.8%
Gianna	10.8%	8.4%	8.4%	X	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	21.7%	8.4%
Hannah	9.9%	7.8%	7.8%	8.4%	7.8%	7.8%	19.6%	7.8%	7.8%	7.6%	7.8%
Kam	9.9%	7.8%	19.6%	8.4%	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	7.6%	7.8%
Kari	9.9%	7.8%	7.8%	8.4%	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	19.6%	7.8%	7.6%	7.8%
Kathryn	9.9%	19.6%	7.8%	8.4%	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	7.6%	7.8%
Shannon	9.8%	7.6%	7.6%	21.7%	7.6%	7.6%	7.6%	7.6%	7.6%	7.5%	7.6%
Taylor	9.9%	7.8%	7.8%	8.4%	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	7.6%	19.6%
Tyranny	9.9%	7.8%	7.8%	8.4%	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	7.8%	19.6%	7.6%	7.8%

9:35 A: Now Hannah trying to talk Alicia out of Andre.

9:36 N: What's a "mandle"?

9:37 N: Alicia is not a happy camper.  So many female eye rolls

9:37 A: Hannah was just trying to move in on Andre as soon as she could.

Matchup Ceremony

9:45 A: Lots of people choosing differently... this actually is a great strategy for narrowing a lot of possibilities, but risk of a blackout is high.

9:47 A: Hilarious bit by Michael (who looks a bit like Kevin Love?) and Hannah calling Gianna Trump.

• Osvaldo - Kari
• Ozzy - Kathryn
• Jaylan - Kam
• Edward - Shannon
• Derrick - Alicia
• Hayden - Taylor
• Andre - Hannah
• Michael - Gianna
• Joey - Carolina (repeat from episode 1)
• Mike - Casandra
• Tyler - Tyranny

Blackout odds: 36.0% (1,997,186 out of 5,540,084)
Instant win possible: No, did not repeat two matchups from episode 1
Maximum number of lights: 9
Most likely number of lights: 1

10:00 A: Blackout!!! They lose half a million dollars and still have 1,997,186 possibilities left.

	Andre	Derrick	Edward	Hayden	Jaylan	Joey	Michael	Mike	Osvaldo	Ozzy	Tyler
Alicia	X	X	10.8%	11.9%	10.9%	12.3%	10.9%	10.9%	10.9%	10.6%	10.8%
Carolina	12.3%	9.9%	9.6%	10.5%	9.6%	X	9.7%	9.6%	9.6%	9.4%	9.6%
Casandra	10.9%	8.4%	8.2%	8.9%	21.5%	9.6%	8.2%	X	8.2%	8.0%	8.2%
Gianna	11.9%	9.2%	8.8%	X	8.8%	10.5%	X	8.8%	8.8%	24.1%	8.8%
Hannah	X	8.7%	8.4%	9.2%	8.4%	9.9%	22.1%	8.4%	8.4%	8.2%	8.4%
Kam	10.8%	8.4%	21.5%	8.9%	X	9.6%	8.2%	8.2%	8.2%	8.0%	8.2%
Kari	10.9%	8.4%	8.2%	8.9%	8.2%	9.6%	8.2%	21.5%	X	8.0%	8.2%
Kathryn	10.8%	21.8%	8.1%	8.8%	8.1%	9.6%	8.2%	8.1%	8.1%	X	8.1%
Shannon	10.6%	8.2%	X	24.1%	8.0%	9.4%	8.0%	8.0%	8.0%	7.8%	8.0%
Taylor	10.9%	8.5%	8.2%	X	8.2%	9.7%	8.2%	8.2%	8.2%	8.0%	21.8%
Tyranny	10.8%	8.4%	8.2%	8.9%	8.2%	9.6%	8.2%	8.2%	21.5%	8.0%	X

We had hundreds of readers following along live tonight - thank you! Would you be interested in watching a live stream after the show?

Would you watch an Are You The One? Math after-match live stream?

Yes

No

Season 5, Episode 1 Probabilities - Live Blog

MTV's Are You The One? season 5 features 11 men and 11 women looking for their perfect match. If they manage to guess the exactly right combination, they'll split $1,000,000.

Here I'll be keeping track of the possible remaining perfect match combinations (with the help of a computer), and looking into the potential strategy of playing this game. The math work here will be independent of the romance and excitement that comes with the pairings. Unless noted otherwise, assume the probabilities of a matchup here being successful are random, ignoring chemistry and all the parts of the show that are actually fun.

Prize and Probability of Winning

All 22 winners will split a 30-year annuity that will pay out $1,000,000. That means if they elect to take the present day "lump sum," they'll end up with around $22,000 each (in addition to a shot at finding their perfect match and getting some weekly face time on MTV).

The blackout rule, introduced in season 3, cuts the prize in half if a matchup ceremony results in no lights other than truth booths.

The number of possible permutations in the original game is 11 factorial = 11! = 11 * 10 * 9 * 8 * 7 * 6 * 5 * 4 * 3 * 2 * 1 = 39,916,800. Put simply, a random guess would have a 1 in 39,916,800 chance of winning (0.00000002505%). The calculations done here throughout the season evaluate all of those 39,916,800 possibilities against the information that's been shared through truth booths and matchup ceremonies to figure out the set of perfect matches. The easy way of saying it: I use a computer program to do a process of elimination in seconds.

Previous seasons have used 20 contestants - by adding another couple to the house, MTV has made this season 11 times harder than the four previous seasons.

The show has multiple challenges where additional information is provided, reducing the number of possible combinations. The contestants only have 10 episodes to find the perfect match, so they'll need to reduce it quickly to have a chance.

Live Blog

9:00: Welcome back for Season 5! As mentioned above, this season now has 22 contestants, and getting all of the perfect matches is now 11 times harder. Is MTV setting us up for the first failure, or will they rig it again?

9:01: They've moved from Hawaii to the Dominican Republic!

9:03: The parents are playing matchmaker, selecting three dates for the getaway date: Joey - Carolina, Hannah - Osvaldo, and Gianna - Hayden.

9:04: The parents are setting up couples where the girl is not in to the guy at all!

9:06: Casandra can count!

9:07: Haircut, Eyebrows, And a Tan.

9:08: A girl who loves animals??

9:09: Also, Hayden, her mom picked you!

9:10: Spreading seed to see what bites?

9:11: Michael with a good line: "I dated a lot of girls with holes [in their hearts] but none of them got the surgery."

9:13: Kathryn and Mike going for it - in front of everyone!!!

9:18: Might not be the indecision that's making your stomach hurt...

9:20: Hayden freaking out Gianna. Too weird for her!

9:21: The AfterMatch is back!

9:26: The getaway is riding a truck through a forest and river.

9:28: "I would never cheat on a girl." "I like that about you." (Cue happy music and a kiss!)

Truth Booth

9:29: Hayden and Gianna to the Truth Booth!

9:30: Twist!! "What is the truth booth worth to you?"

9:34: Ryan offers the house a deal - give up the truth booth and the right to ever send that couple to the truth booth, get an extra $150,000 added to the prize.

9:35: Derrick knows what's up - the first episode, where they know nothing (9.1%), is probably the best time to add this money. And yet they choose not to take the trade!

9:36: No match means 36,288,000 combinations remain.

	Andre	Derrick	Edward	Hayden	Jaylan	Joey	Michael	Mike	Osvaldo	Ozzy	Tyler
Alicia	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	10.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%
Carolina	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	10.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%
Casandra	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	10.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%
Gianna	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%	X	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%
Hannah	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	10.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%
Kam	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	10.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%
Kari	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	10.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%
Kathryn	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	10.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%
Shannon	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	10.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%
Taylor	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	10.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%
Tyranny	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	10.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%

Some very loose estimates on expected values on the truth booths... the estimate here is based on the expected number of combinations produced by the truth booth, multiplied by the prize and number of matchup ceremonies remaining. It does not account for the value of future truth booths, blackouts, or that each subsequent matchup ceremony reduces the number of combinations remaining - all of which could significantly impact the calculation!

Estimated value of forfeiting truth booth for $150,000: $1.53
Estimated value of going to the truth booth: $1.61
Estimated value of losing the truth booth: $1.47
It's worth trading the truth booth for approximately: $198,020

Matchup Ceremony

The new blackout rule is the prize gets cut in half - not just losing $250,000!

• Kam - Edward
• Taylor - Tyler
• Kari - Mike
• Casandra - Jaylan
• Carolina - Joey
• Tyranny - Osvaldo
• Gianna - Ozzy
• Hannah - Michael
• Alicia - Andre
• Kathryn - Derrick
• Shannon - Hayden

Blackout odds: 36.4% (13,216,113 of 36,288,000)
Instant win possible: Yes
Most likely number of lights: 1

Two matches mean 6,741,548 possibilities remain.

	Andre	Derrick	Edward	Hayden	Jaylan	Joey	Michael	Mike	Osvaldo	Ozzy	Tyler
Alicia	17.8%	8.2%	8.2%	8.9%	8.2%	8.2%	8.2%	8.2%	8.2%	8.0%	8.2%
Carolina	8.2%	8.2%	8.2%	8.9%	8.2%	17.8%	8.2%	8.2%	8.2%	8.0%	8.2%
Casandra	8.2%	8.2%	8.2%	8.9%	17.8%	8.2%	8.2%	8.2%	8.2%	8.0%	8.2%
Gianna	8.9%	8.9%	8.9%	X	8.9%	8.9%	8.9%	8.9%	8.9%	19.8%	8.9%
Hannah	8.2%	8.2%	8.2%	8.9%	8.2%	8.2%	17.8%	8.2%	8.2%	8.0%	8.2%
Kam	8.2%	8.2%	17.8%	8.9%	8.2%	8.2%	8.2%	8.2%	8.2%	8.0%	8.2%
Kari	8.2%	8.2%	8.2%	8.9%	8.2%	8.2%	8.2%	17.8%	8.2%	8.0%	8.2%
Kathryn	8.2%	17.8%	8.2%	8.9%	8.2%	8.2%	8.2%	8.2%	8.2%	8.0%	8.2%
Shannon	8.0%	8.0%	8.0%	19.8%	8.0%	8.0%	8.0%	8.0%	8.0%	7.9%	8.0%
Taylor	8.2%	8.2%	8.2%	8.9%	8.2%	8.2%	8.2%	8.2%	8.2%	8.0%	17.8%
Tyranny	8.2%	8.2%	8.2%	8.9%	8.2%	8.2%	8.2%	8.2%	17.8%	8.0%	8.2%